Twins Pitching Success is Not Sustainable

Well, of course.  Who here thinks the Twins will lead the league in pitching?

Not a criticism of this article, which has a nice statistical base, but we all knew that the first week was a ridiculous aberration.

So, the Twins regress to the norm, and lose a lot more ballgames.  

I think the question becomes, who steps forward and shows long-term potential to pitch above average, and who shows they don't measure up.

I mean, that's all that really matters in a year they won't compete.

 

 

Frankly I'm more disappointed in the offense.

Agreed.  The pitching staff (warts and all) has been giving this team a chance to win every game.  We know they're not going to keep this up.  We expected lots of tinkering this year on this staff and we're likely to get our money's worth. 

But up until this point, it seems like it's the offense that's been getting lucky.  Being handed 5-run first innings.  Getting a pitcher to walk 6 guys in a row.  Scoring on balks and errors, etc.  Don't get me wrong, I'll take it!  But geez.

I love Twins baseball but these last coupla years have been rough! 

 

 

Frankly I'm more disappointed in the offense.

Amen.

 Three easy outs conveniently spaced in the line-up.  A DH whose claim to fame is taking walks!  And  Mauer!  

Pressly posts an ERA+ of >100 4 years in a row. Now he's getting rocked.

I think part of the problem is we don't know who to send down. With so many pitchers no one is getting enough time to prove they should not be here. If Molitor doesn't have confidence in them we hardly see them at all. Which means they don't have enough innings to get themselves sent down or DFA'd,

I think we all knew that the pitching was the Achilles heel on this team.

 

Frankly I'm more disappointed in the offense.

I believe the root cause of this issues with this team is the way Falvey and Molitor came together on this roster.  Falvey got some of his guys in there and Molitor as well. But Molly was open about not liking 13 pitchers, so my guess the roster is tilted in Falvey's favor.  I DO NOT LIKE THIS!  They should have come together on a strategy and built the 25 and 40 man rosters from there. Instead we get a hodge-podge pitching staff, an infield with an offensive tilt, and outfield with a defensive tilt, a light bench and bunch of weird decisions looming.  Nice job boys! If you know what you are doing you sure aren't showing it.  

I believe the root cause of this issues with this team is the way Falvey and Molitor came together on this roster.  Falvey got some of his guys in there and Molitor as well. But Molly was open about not liking 13 pitchers, so my guess the roster is tilted in Falvey's favor.  I DO NOT LIKE THIS!  They should have come together on a strategy and built the 25 and 40 man rosters from there. Instead we get a hodge-podge pitching staff, an infield with an offensive tilt, and outfield with a defensive tilt, a light bench and bunch of weird decisions looming.  Nice job boys! If you know what you are doing you sure aren't showing it.

I agree with you folks re: Falvey.  This is his team now - he's supposed to be the next Theo Eptstein and we can't expect him to fix this train wreck over night.  

I'm MUCH happier that he's in charge right now.  He's watching what's going on, and we'll see some interesting moves at the deadline.  Ryan (who I do respect) was out of his depth with this mess.  I think Molitor has to go for this team to make a turnaround.  

The Pohlads' insistence that Molitor stick around was a horrible handcuff for this new regime.  

I've actually liked most of Molitor's moves this season, even some of the moves that failed.

Yeah, I like that he's experimenting with lineups.  Batting Polanco 4th, Kepler 3rd, etc.  I think the on-field talent (or lackthereof) make his decisions look worse than they actually are.  

I don't like that Molitor has the personality of a box of Triscuits.  

I believe the root cause of this issues with this team is the way Falvey and Molitor came together on this roster.  Falvey got some of his guys in there and Molitor as well. But Molly was open about not liking 13 pitchers, so my guess the roster is tilted in Falvey's favor.  I DO NOT LIKE THIS!  They should have come together on a strategy and built the 25 and 40 man rosters from there. Instead we get a hodge-podge pitching staff, an infield with an offensive tilt, and outfield with a defensive tilt, a light bench and bunch of weird decisions looming.  Nice job boys! If you know what you are doing you sure aren't showing it.  

They are playing .500 ball, and the pitching and defense are much improved. I didn't expect them to win the World Series in the first 6 months.

"Rank of FIP in the league" isn't how you would see if the team pitching will get worse. The other teams can pitch better and the Twins would still fall in the ranking.  

Let's look at the actuals.

ERA 3.18

FIP 3.97

cFIP 105

DRA 3.75

DRA (starters) 4.02

DRA (relievers) 3.31

cFIP is showing that the Twins are within the 95-105 range which is considered to be average talent (though they are at the bottom edge of average), but most teams in the league are far worse than average right now. Yes, the Twins "rank" will fall as other teams improve, but they Twins pitching might not get worse.

FIP, DRA, and ERA are off but not really by that much. Looks like the problem is with the starting staff and this will be a shock to exactly no one.  We all know the team has four #4/#5 starters

Of course the current ERA (and other stats) aren't sustainable but I have reached the point where I am happy if the pitching is merely a little below average vs historically bad like previous seasons.

The question should be whether or not a little below average is sustainable.

Santana and Santiago have long enough track records that they can be considered solid to good pitchers.

Hughes and Gibson (and especially Gibson) haven't shown much so far this year and that is the big concern going forward.

Mejia is a wild card with modest upside this year. The reasonable best case is that he is a solid pitcher but there is considerable downside for this season.

Berrios is the Twins one big potential change but he hasn't shown the ability to translate that to the MLB yet. The outlook changes considerably if he takes that step this year.

But with Gonsalves's injury and Jay's switch to relief the upper minors is depleted of pitching and most likely we see the next version of Albers, Pino, Jason Miller, etc... if an injury occurs or a trade happens. Or multiple pitchers get demoted/cut due to ineffectiveness.

Imo the upside this year is an average rotation and the downside is something looking like last year if there is just a bad break or two.

They are playing .500 ball, and the pitching and defense are much improved. I didn't expect them to win the World Series in the first 6 months.

Not in the last ten games.  

By definition, the difference between FIP and ERA is fielding. That is sustainable, unless you believe that our rangeless infield will be tested more. I don't know whether there are teams in our division that don't subscribe to the current "elevate" hitting approach, so we might be able to sustain some of this with our great outfield defense. But in general, I agree that we will come back to the pack.

Paul Molitor's use of Pressly so far has been suspect. First, Pressly, who is obviously a one inning pitcher, was used in a second inning and gave up a game-losing home run to power hitter Matt Davidson on an outside fastball. Then in another game, instead of walking Avisail Garcia, who was leading the world in hitting, to face Davidson, a strikeout candidate, Molitor left him in and Garcia hit one that hasn't come down yet. 

Pressly will be fine if he's used right.