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  • The Twins Were Wise to Pass on These 3 Sluggers


    Lou Hennessy

    The Twins were rumored to have varying degrees of interest in a handful of first basemen in the off-season. While Donovan Solano has been rather unexciting, the club is surely relieved to have him aboard rather than the names on this list. What exactly did the Twins dodge by passing on these former standout sluggers?

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    All in all, most of the Twins’ needs were addressed in the off-season, with a few glaring exceptions. One of the areas that went relatively untouched was the need for a right-handed slugger that could play first base. The club was rumored to have some interest in a few notable names, and eventually landed on Donovan Solano as the de facto plug for their leak. 

    He didn’t follow the mold of the players that are on this list, but he’s put up numbers that are solid, if unexciting. On the year, Solano is batting .270/.360/.350 (104 wRC+), and playing passable defense at first base (with rare appearances at second and third). His performance has been a likely outcome for a 35-year-old veteran with a high on-base profile. But how does Solano stack up against the other names that were loosely-attached to the Twins in the off-season?

    Josh Bell
    A one-time top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bell entered free agency as one of the better options among corner infielders. Despite a rocky couple of months with the San Diego Padres post-trade deadline, he finished the season with a .262/.362/.422 clip and 17 home runs. That’s the type of player many wanted for the Twins as someone that could split time with a left-handed platoon partner such as Alex Kirilloff or Joey Gallo.

    Bell went on to sign a two-year contract with the Cleveland Guardians, worth $33 million with an opt-out after the first year. The player option grants him the ability to re-enter the free agent market if he has a big year in 2023. But so far, Bell doesn’t look like somebody that’s lining up for a big payday this winter. In 45 games, the switch-hitter has a .228/.342/.348 clip with just three home runs. 

    It should be noted that Bell has only been given 46 at-bats against left-handed pitching, which has been the Twins’ kryptonite all year. If they wanted someone that could mash from the right side of the plate, it’s probably wise that they passed on Bell. 

    Luke Voit
    The home run king of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season looked like an ideal fit for the Twins on paper. He still boasted plenty of power from the right side in 2022 while blasting 22 home runs for the Padres and Washington Nationals, but his overall output was roughly replacement level (102 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR). Like Solano, Voit’s market failed to materialize until February, when teams were already in the thick of spring training. 

    That soft market was part of the appeal when it came to Voit’s potential fit in Minnesota. The club could have theoretically signed the 32-year-old to a cheap, incentive-laden deal to be one of the last names on the 26-man roster, or even a minor-league “prove it” contract as he ended up doing with the Milwaukee Brewers.

    No matter how insignificant the price tag could have been, it’s fortunate that the Twins didn’t land Voit. In 22 games with the Brew Crew, he has a brutal .221/.284/.265 (54 wRC+) and has missed significant time with a neck injury. Like Bell, his numbers against left-handed pitching have been abysmal, as he’s slashing just .091/.091/.121 (-53 wRC+) with a shocking 60% strikeout rate. You’d be hard pressed to find somebody with a worse clip against southpaw pitching. If the Twins had signed Voit to be the right-handed side of a platoon at first base, it would have been a huge swing-and-miss, something Voit is all too familiar with.

    Jose Abreu
    Arguably the biggest name on the first base market last winter was the former-MVP who had a brilliant nine-year career with the rival Chicago White Sox. Abreu won three Silver Slugger awards and was named to three All-Star teams, so his offensive reputation was enough to land him a three-year, $58.5 million guarantee from the reigning world champion Houston Astros. Early in the off-season, he looked like a perfect fit for the Twins as a veteran leader that could still mash in the middle of a lineup and play a reasonably sound first base. 

    But now, Abreu is one of the more confounding players in the league, and not in a good way. His power has seemingly vanished, as he has yet to hit a homerun in 47 games played this season. His anemic .221/.281/.260 (52 wRC+) slash line is borderline unplayable, and his .540 OPS is fourth-lowest among all qualified hitters. His inability to do any damage against breaking balls (36.1% whiff rate) has been a main culprit when trying to diagnose a cause for his sharp decline, but honestly, his numbers against fastballs (.263 slugging) and off-speed (21.7% whiff rate) aren’t going to save him, either. 

    He would have been viewed as a Nelson Cruz-esque acquisition for the Twins – someone who could still be productive in his late-30s while leading by example from a corner locker. But instead, it looks like father time is catching up to one of the premier Cuban-born players of this generation. 

    At the end of the day, it looks like the Twins chose wisely when they signed Solano to a one-year deal, especially when compared to these three rumored off-season targets. An ideal fit would have been to go the route that the Boston Red Sox ended up taking, by signing Justin Turner and transitioning him to a primary first baseman/designated hitter. He’s currently batting .267/.360/.407 (111 wRC+) and absolutely crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .291/.391/.509 (146 wRC+) clip while playing slightly above-average defense. Passing on the former Dodger legend is regrettable. Passing on the other names on this list has ended up being a blessing for an already-troubled Twins lineup. 

    What do you think? Are you surprised by the lackluster performance of these three rumored targets? Who else would be a good fit as a right-handed hitting first baseman? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. 

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    Carlos Correa hits right-handed, and I'm sure he could handle first base.  Whatever became of him?

    Okay, but seriously, in this age of short benches and 13-man pitching staffs, I'm not a huge fan of paying too much attention to which side of the plate a batter stands in.  To paraphrase an old saying, I don't want a right-handed hitter, I want a hitter who can hit lefties.  Only sign one of those guys if you plan to play him full time, and in this case we had first base well enough covered.

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    I agree that none of them fits our needs, but I have to take exception to the idea that Solano has played passable defense.  I have seen too many mistakes that should have been errors.  He is not a fix in the field, but then I just want Kiriloff at 1B and I prefer Julien who is the same kind of fielder at 2B. And next week I want Lewis at 3B of SS depending on Correa. 

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    I have no problem with Solano thus far but I'll stop short of calling it wise. 

    Concerning the players you mention in the article... I'll just say... free agency in the mid-range can go well (Brandon Drury is OK off the top of my head) but when it goes badly... it goes badly and it can take your team down.

    Teams are typically hesitant to move away from the mistake of signing a struggling free agent. Not moving off this mistake ends up being the bigger mistake that determines where you are drafting next year.  

    If teams can't get away from the mistake... I'd rather they pocket the money and pile up players with options that can easily be taken off the roster instead. 

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    With the number of corner types on the 40 man, I don't see how any of the guys listed really fit.  Some assumptions needed to be made by the FO, of course.  But they're also in a better position to know things like where Kirilloff's wrist is.  

    In these days of 13 man pitching staffs and short benches, I'll take versatility over what the guys listed represent.  Solano isn't exactly a defensive specialist, but he does have versatility in the field and that's more important in a bench player, in my opinion.  He's a better fit for the roster than any of the guys listed in the article.

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    35 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    I agree that none of them fits our needs, but I have to take exception to the idea that Solano has played passable defense.  I have seen too many mistakes that should have been errors.  He is not a fix in the field, but then I just want Kiriloff at 1B and I prefer Julien who is the same kind of fielder at 2B. And next week I want Lewis at 3B of SS depending on Correa. 

    Yeah agree. We don’t need these platoon types when we could be playing our youngsters and developing them. Castro, Solano & Vazquez have been subpar offensively and not good enough defensively, except for Vazquez. 

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    One could add Correa's name to this list due to his poor hitting so far this season. I was not a fan of signing him , but Twin's fans have to hope he gets better for many years to come since his big contract will not allow the Twins to sign other players.

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    50 minutes ago, Hashim said:

    Yeah agree. We don’t need these platoon types when we could be playing our youngsters and developing them. Castro, Solano & Vazquez have been subpar offensively and not good enough defensively, except for Vazquez. 

    FYI, Castro is one of the youngsters if we're just going by age. He's 26. He's half a year older than Kirilloff, 2 years older than Julien, the same age as Jeffers, half a year older than Wallner, a couple months younger than Larnach, a year and a half younger than Gordon, and only 2 years older than Lewis.

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    1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Solano is a negative defender and overall he has been the definition of replacement level. The Twins are relieved he has appeared in 40 games before June? I hope not....

     

    2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    I have no problem with Solano thus far but I'll stop short of calling it wise. 

    Concerning the players you mention in the article... I'll just say... free agency in the mid-range can go well (Brandon Drury is OK off the top of my head) but when it goes badly... it goes badly and it can take your team down.

    Teams are typically hesitant to move away from the mistake of signing a struggling free agent. Not moving off this mistake ends up being the bigger mistake that determines where you are drafting next year.  

    If teams can't get away from the mistake... I'd rather they pocket the money and pile up players with options that can easily be taken off the roster instead. 

    I didn't intend to make it seem like the Solano signing was a wise choice, or that he's been a sight for sore eyes. But he has been better than the alternatives listed here, and he's been cheaper than Abreu and Bell. If Solano's production does tank this year, it would be easier to cut/swallow the remainder of his contract. 

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    6 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

     

    I didn't intend to make it seem like the Solano signing was a wise choice, or that he's been a sight for sore eyes. But he has been better than the alternatives listed here, and he's been cheaper than Abreu and Bell. If Solano's production does tank this year, it would be easier to cut/swallow the remainder of his contract. 

    I wasn't necessarily arguing with your article. 

    I agree with your article to be honest. 

    I was just nut-shelling my thoughts. 

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    Exhibits A, B, and C regarding the potential pitfalls of free agency. You are paying based on the past performance of a player who is almost always past his prime. Of these three Bell at age 30 would seem to have been the best risk. Abreu is 36, and very few players have Nelson Cruz-like performance past that age. I'm sure there are people in the Astros' front office wondering, "What were we thinking??"

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    11 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

    Exhibits A, B, and C regarding the potential pitfalls of free agency. You are paying based on the past performance of a player who is almost always past his prime. Of these three Bell at age 30 would seem to have been the best risk. Abreu is 36, and very few players have Nelson Cruz-like performance past that age. I'm sure there are people in the Astros' front office wondering, "What were we thinking??"

    The Astro's managed to sign a 36 year old free agent and get 3 years younger at the position by doing so. 

    I give them high marks for the degree of difficulty on that maneuver. 

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    Just as a matter of record, I wasn't really high on any of the 3 in the OP, though I kinda liked the Bell idea a bit. The guys I wanted...once Haniger was off the market/too expensive...were McCutchen or Mancini on a 1yr deal. In hindsight, signing none of them and trading for Taylor actually may have been the best move overall. 

    That being said, any of these 3 could suddenly get untracked and provide solid production again.

    I think the Solano signing, while not spectacular, has been pretty smart, IMO. He wasn't signed with any hopes of cranking out 30HR, or even 20. He was brought in to hit a decent average, show some contact, and provide some OB ability on a cheap 1yr deal and provide some OK/solid defense at 2 or 3 spots. And while he's had a couple bad games, I'd say he's done exactly that. If everyone gets cranked up on the roster and stays healthy, there's actually a chance Solano doesn't finish the season with the Twins. But he remains a solid, inexpensive, and smart signing IMO.

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    For 2 million Solano is the ideal choice.  The idea with him is he can hit lefties and like Garlick could probably pass through waivers and go to AAA for a while on his 2 million contract.  Voit is the only one of those three I think the Twins would have considered.  I think even more than those three the OF they almost pursued who went on to hit .150 and get DFA was the signing I’m glad didn’t happen I think it was AJ Pollak if I remember correctly.

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    I'm thinking that Twins simply did a good job with the signing of Solano considering any other choice would've cost more and he's been decent so far this year. I was hoping twins would make a run at Turner though, he would've been super loved here and been the Cruz of this team. Oh well haha. Maybe we can find someone else in the offseason to fit that ideal?

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    I don't see what was wrong with Miranda at 1B. I would have thought that Abreau would have been a great signing and have to believe that he is currently injured though playing. He is a much better hitter than he currently shows and is an RBI machine. Solano is ok but maybe not a long term answer. Maybe if Lewis is called up, someone like Polanco can move to 1B. The overall hitting by this team is below what we expect from Buxton and Correa and needs to get better if we are to stave off Cleveland again.

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