Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Right Field

I'm very bearish on Kepler. I believe 2019 was an outlier year in terms of offensive production really all across the league, and I think we'll see Max continue to put up numbers similar to 2016-2018, where he hit around .230 with an OPS+ around 95.

 

What continues to puzzle me is Rocco's persistent with putting Kepler as leadoff. A career .237 hitter should not be leading off. However I think that Rocco will finally come to his senses and put either Polanco or Arraez in the 1 spot. Also if Kepler's spring struggles continue into the regular season, and if the Twins care about putting the best team possible on the field, I think Garlick or a prospect should be given a chance in right field. 

I have always thought of Kepler as one of those over-hyped Twin prospects who has never really lived up to his "potential", with the single exception of 2019.  He is a low BA guy with some pop.  My doubts have been reenforced with this spring's performance where he is batting .087.  Yes, its only spring training but his lack of improvement is troubling.

 

The Twins have two rookie OFs in Kirillof and Larnach who are almost ready.  Is it unreasonable to look at Kepler as a valuable trade piece?  Probably not now, or not even this year, but the Twins should be more proactive in looking to trade players like Kepler, Sano, Garver who are streaky hitters and outside of maybe one year, have never performed at the high, consistent level hoped for.  This is a critical year for these players and if they don'y rebound, a smart FO should consider alternatives.

 

I always hate it when I see something like "who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder", inferring, that center fielders aren't even expected to hit, and it is fine if they don't. When I think of center fielders, I think of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Trout, Duke Snider, Joe Dimaggio.......... I could go on and on. Center fielders should hit, too.

 

This link shows wRC+ by position from 2000-2018. We would all like to have one of these superstars in  CF but they are exceptional and therefore exceptions not the rule. The fact is that CFers don't hit as well as corner OFers.

 

 https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/9nbhjb/2018_league_average_wrc_by_position/

 

I'm very bearish on Kepler. I believe 2019 was an outlier year in terms of offensive production really all across the league, and I think we'll see Max continue to put up numbers similar to 2016-2018, where he hit around .230 with an OPS+ around 95.

 

What continues to puzzle me is Rocco's persistent with putting Kepler as leadoff. A career .237 hitter should not be leading off. However I think that Rocco will finally come to his senses and put either Polanco or Arraez in the 1 spot. Also if Kepler's spring struggles continue into the regular season, and if the Twins care about putting the best team possible on the field, I think Garlick or a prospect should be given a chance in right field. 

I agree with this, especially having Kepler as a leadoff hitter.  I don't remember exactly the number, but it's something like the leadoff hitter will get 18 more at bats every year than the #2 hitter, and so on down the line.  I want a lineup where the guy that get on base the most hits first, the second most hits second, etc.  I'd make some allowances for speed (i.e. if it were Cruz then Buxton, I'd flip them to keep Cruz from clogging the bases in front of Buxton), and to mix up the righty/lefty hitters to make it harder for relievers under the 3-batter rule, but by and large, I want the guy that reaches base the most frequently in the batter's box the most often. 

JcS

Sure, in a perfect world, but the point is still valid - you're more likely to accept less offensive performance from a center fielder. Paul Blair is the epitome of this - he had a career OPS of .684, but his defense was other world stuff. In 1974, he finished 13th in MVP balloting with an OPS of .730.

Nobody will believe I am saying this but here it goes.... I don't believe Falvey sits in his office and goes to Levine, "hey have you seen Kepler's current analytical peripheral numbers? maybe we should switch Byron to right and Max to center. Max looks like way more of a HISTORICALLY center fielder hitter than Byron. Get Baldelli on the phone.(the last part i am sure really happens) Power is not going to be much of a worry as long as Sano and Cruz are around. Baseball would be pretty boring is all teams center fielders were all same kind of players as everyone else's. Can Max improve? Sure. I am sure he knows that. I like our players...a lot. So now that we ran Risario out of town we are going to pick on Kepler because he hit like a traditional center fielder. You dont get to preach analytics and then when you want to put a player on blast bring up old school logic. Falvey is going to look fir the best Players and put the brst team on the field without any traditional, historical, loyal, or organizational tendencies. He is totally going to re-write the Twins history books so...forget what you thought about the great Twins center fielders. Tovar, Puckett, Hunter, Revere, Span and Buxton. If it makes them feel good about taking credit for the trade, you see Joey Gallo in center field next weekend.

 

Interesting link. I'm shocked that SS ranks second after RF among position players. (In the AL, that is.)

 

I think you read it incorrectly. SS ranks 2nd worst. I rearranged them highest to lowest. The up the middle positions C / CF / SS / 2B are the lowest four.  

 

--- Ave / NL / AL

1B - 114 117 111
RF - 109 109 109
DH - 106 93 107
LF - 106 109 102
3B - 102 103 101
CF - 99 100 99
2B - 95 96 95
SS - 90 88 91
 C  - 88 89 88

 

Interesting link. I'm shocked that SS ranks second after RF among position players. (In the AL, that is.)

 

And only for 2018, I might add. For the bigger picture, SS are below average hitters (MLB wRC+ of 90, just above catchers).

 

Edited to add: I see that Major League Ready already pointed this out.

Ax far as the future goes and depth, I find myself wondering about room for Max along with Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Sano come 2022 and beyond. Not saying a trade couldn't happen, but 5 guys and 4 spots, is there room for everyone? There could be. I think it's something to contemplate.

 

I was just thinking the same thing. It's not like Kepler is hurting us but it's also not hard to imagine two of Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker occupying the corner OF spots and perhaps all three with Rooker splitting time between OF / 1B & DH. Best case scenario they get more production out of one of the prospects, save some money to be applied elsewhere and get a return for Kepler. That's the kind of scenario that puts a team in contention. We can hope, right?

With the deadened baseball this season, guys are gonna have to re-tool their swings again. Kepler may get "back" to being a better hitter. Find the swing that got him here.

If Kepler continues to be a dead pull hitter, do not see a major future here.  And agree he may have more value to a building team in center field in return for pitching assets that do not fit that teams timeline.  He is not a bad player, wonder like a lot of the rest of this forum, if Kepler will be passed this year when Larnach is ready (not the defender, but much better hit tool).  

Using the whole field can be learned, but he is running out of time.

I’ve been okay with Kepler leading off as he usually leads the team in BB% (or at least top 3) but the way he looks this spring isn’t great...

 

if he doesn’t pick it up, I lean Polanco. I’m still a fan of Kep but I expected him to be better than he is based on BB and K percentages.