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    Twins 11, Guardians 1: Opening Salvo


    Nick Nelson

    The Cleveland Guardians owned the Twins from start to finish in 2024. This time around, Minnesota has set a very different tone — hopefully one that portends a shift in the AL Central power dynamic.
     

    Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher:
    Bailey Ober — 7.1 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB (92 pitches, 67 strikes, 73%)
    Home Runs: Edouard Julien (2), Ryan Jeffers (1)
    Top 3 WPA: Ober (.164), Julien (.131), Byron Buxton (.069)
    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    mincle42825.png

    Coming off their most successful week of the season, a 5-1 home stand against the White Sox and Angels, the Twins headed into Cleveland with a clear mandate: prove you can translate the improved performance to more legitimate competition. So far, so great. Minnesota came out of the gates in this four-game series with their best performance of the season, jumping to a big early lead and adding on relentlessly on the way to a blowout victory.

    The Twins set the tone immediately, with Edouard Julien swinging at the first pitch he saw from Cleveland starter Gavin Williams and launching it over the center field wall for his second home run of the season. Minnesota added another run in the inning on a double from Ryan Jeffers, scoring Carlos Correa, but Ty France was thrown out at home (by a longshot) to end the inning.

    The Twins lineup got right back after it in the second inning, loading the bases for Byron Buxton who flared a liner past second baseman Gabriel Arias, scoring two more runs and pushing the lead to 4-0. Missing Andrés Giménez, Guards fans?

    The top of the fifth brought another crooked number from the Minnesota offense, with Jonah Bride and Harrison Bader each delivering RBI singles from the bottom of the order. For Bride it was part of a three-hit night, nearly matching his total in 12 games with the Marlins before they cut him. The 29-year-old is now 7-for-14 since joining the Twins and is looking like a nifty little pickup.

    The runs kept pouring on in the sixth as Minnesota tallied three more, including two on a Ty France double. By this point the Twins had already healthily surpassed their highest run total from last year's 13 matchups against Cleveland (6). They finished with 11, the most runs scored against the Guardians since the infamous Lucas Giolito game in September of 2023. Tone-setter, indeed.

    While Bailey Ober surely appreciated all that run support, he didn't need it. The right-hander was dialed and in control, peppering the strike zone with efficiency and inducing an endless string of ground balls. Ober didn't miss a ton of bats but didn't need to, as he let Guardians hitters get themselves out on the way to 7 ⅔ innings of one-run ball. 

    Not only did Cleveland drop the series opener, their fourth loss in five games, but the drain on their pitching staff also threatens to create headaches for Stephen Vogt in the remainder of the series. Their staff was already somewhat gassed coming into this one, after the Guardians played a double-header on Saturday and got just 4 ⅓ innings from Logan Allen in a blowout loss on Sunday. This was kinda the last thing they needed.

    Williams lasted only two innings after the Twins got to him early, and then in the fifth, Paul Sewald had to exit abruptly due to an injury, signaling to the dugout after throwing his 15th pitch. Sewald was a relatively big-splash acquisition for the Guards during the offseason (much to my puzzlement), and they're likely going to be without him for a while. Initial word from Cleveland is that the veteran reliever has right shoulder inflammation. 

    The circumstances pushed Vogt and the Guardians to put a position-player on the mound in the eighth inning. Even after getting two innings out of infielder Will Wilson, they're going to be pressed to get through the next three games with a thinned-out relief corps. Rocco Baldelli and the Twins have no such concerns coming off deep starts from both Ober and Joe Ryan (the first back-to-back 7+ inning starts for MN since last June), with all of their high-leverage arms completely fresh heading into Tuesday.

    What's Next: The Twins will be countering Cleveland right-hander Tanner Bibee with Chris Paddack in another 5:10 PM CT start. It sounds like a lopsided matchup favoring the Guards, and it probably is, but Paddack has looked solid since his season-opening clunker against Chicago (3.32 ERA in four starts) and Bibee's been struggling, with 14 walks and a league-leading eight homers allowed in 26 innings. If the Twins can win this one they'll be within two games of .500, and just 1 ½ games behind Cleveland in the AL Central standings.

    Postgame Interviews:

     

    Bullpen Usage Chart:

      THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT
    Topa 0 15 0 27 0 42
    Alcalá 41 0 0 0 19 60
    Varland 0 20 19 0 0 39
    Jax 0 0 19 0 0 19
    Sands 0 13 0 0 0 13
    Stewart 0 0 6 0 0 6
    Coulombe 0 12 0 0 0 12
    Durán 0 0 7 0 0 7
     

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    Marek Houston

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Featured Comments

    Bride - seems the Marlins really messed up! I don’t think the guy is hunting MVP just because he’s 7-14 with the Twins but he hit .276 last year in 232 AB’s - 11 HR - 122 OPS+. Sure seems the Marlins should have given him a longer runway. …….. maybe he’s seen enough of S. Florida and went in the tank to get released?? Just kidding but he’s a pretty good “scrap heap” pick up by the FO!! He might force Castro into primarily an OF role?

    Bride - Lewis - CC - Lee - Julien - France

    Larnach - Bader - Buxton - Wallner - Castro

    Anybody hear anything about Wallner or Castro’s health? I assume Lewis will be back by 5/5/25?

    Offense is finally nearing a level respectability from a Team standpoint.

    Buxton projects to 30HR & 85 RBI if he sits for a month at some point. Too many strikeouts but his bat to ball production sure looks good in April!

    Jax & Alcala are 0-4 with combined ERA of about 8.00………..if Team wins 2 of those 4 they are over .500. Those 2 guys are getting it together. My point is things aren’t all bad despite Wallner - Lewis - Castro - Keaschall all going down with injuries. Remaining competitive through this week will continue to level things……….3 more wins through Sunday would be big as Lewis & Castro seem to be coming back in a week or two……serious upgrades over Clemons & Kiersey.

    Excellent game for the Twins. Just excellent.

    I really liked seeing the offense keep piling on runs throughout the game and giving Ober more and more cushion. When your opponent is drowning, don't throw them a life preserver, throw them a bloody anchor. And that includes adding runs against the position player they tossed out there to save the bullpen. I don't care if he's throwing BP velocity, the runs still count. Give them all the misery you can. This ain't Little League!

    Ober was excellent. Scattered the hits, few of which were hit hard. Nice and efficient with easy grounders and pop-ups, he had CLE off balance all night. Too bad he couldn't finish the 8th, but a great performance to start the series. He's definitely in a groove right now.

    Good night for Buxton, Correa, and Jeffers three veteran hitters that the Twins need to perform, especially with Wallner and Lewis still out. They got it done. 

    10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    I may be an eternal optiimist, but I'm not going to blow smoke either.

    We took 2 of 3 from the Dirty Sox, but we didn't look great doing it. But the home town team seemed to be clicking much better overall against the Angels. Julien has looked much better. Correa's bat is apparently not dead yet. Larnach is getting hot again. Lee has been contributing defensively as well as offensively, even if it's in a quiet way. Is Jeffers getting hot? France is nothing special, but he's been solid.

    We really miss Wallner! But Lewis should be back soon. He makes a difference. And a healthy Castro AT LEAST gives the team legitimate options besides playing DFA guys brought in to fill in.

    But I do agree that the Bride who played in 2024 was actually a decent ballplayer. Considering the mess that the Marlins are, maybe we got a guy who's not a bad 13th man bench option? 

    Part of me wonders if the great catches by Buxton and Bader and the SUPER debut by Keaschall haven't provided a wakeup call to everyone?

    The offense isn't where it needs to be, and should be, and could be, partially due to missing pieces.

    The rotation is doing its job. The pen has largely done its job despite some blow ups. This team is starting to remind me of 2023 when they started slowly, got to .500, but didn't CROSS THE LINE until after the All Star break where the offense suddenly matched the staff. Part of that surge was Lewis, Wallner, and Julien. Well. Lewis is back soon, Wallner by the end of May, Julien is much better, and Keaschall back by July? Maybe Rodriguez gets in a groove and helps as well?

    The staff has to carry the load, but they can if the offense actually maintains decent production until everyone is back. They have a winning record when they score 4 or more runs. That's not a large benchmark to overcome. 

    I'd be extatict if they could come home with a 4-3 record on this road trip. Its only ONE win, but it's a start.

    Optimism is a good thing and I think yours is pragmatic.  I'm with ya!

    11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    The results are in from the brightest minds at MIT, Cambridge, and Harvard. Winning is better than losing in a competitive activity. 

    Their research would have been more thorough but all their federal funding for research was taken away.

    1 hour ago, Peter said:

    Big win to start road trip!!! If we can go 4-3 tgat would be great!!! Even better somehow taking 3 of 4 against Cleveland and 2-1 against Boston!!! Agreed about Buxtons catch last week! That was turning point and saved season!!!

    "4-3 tgat would be great" whatever that means.

    4 hours ago, UK Twin said:

    Only 2 K's for Ober but who cares! Very efficient start and another game where only one bullpen arm was used. I actually like the fact that Lopez now slots between Paddack and SWR in the rotation - Lopez will go 6+ virtually every start so bullpen won't have to pitch 4 innings in back to back games.

    Twins now have a positive run differential (only the Tigers join them in the AL Central with that stat) and their expected record is 15-14. Clearly things are looking up - loving that hits are coming from everyone not just a few players.

    Correa looks like he's figured things out at the plate and France looks a steal right now. On pace for over 90 RBI's. If he keeps driving in runs at that pace that $1mill deal is incredible value. If I'm being picky would like a little more power but I'm loving his approach at the plate.

    You took the words out of my mouth. Ober only 2 Ks! I'll take the outs any way that you can, if you have the defense behind you.

    Many fans were calling for Falvey to do his fire sale. But IMO, our core of Correa. Buxton, Lopez & Lewis is hard to beat. If we get rid of them, what will the next core leadership look like? Jenkins? IMO, it doesn't look that great as far as leadership goes.

    Tigers are clearly the team to beat. Correa always starts slow but it seemed that a lot of good Twins' hitters including Correa had their swing screwed up to begin the season. Now that Correa has his swing back, the team can rally behind him. Buxton was mainly holding up the team, now Correa, soon Lewis & hopefully Miranda can get his swing back sooner the better. Hopefully the Twins can get the running game going & improve the INF defense to win the close games. We got the core to compete but do we have the management to get it done?

    14 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

    I'm guessing we won't be seeing Sewald for quite a while. Inflammation is probably only one of his symptoms right now.

    There has to be something to a guy like Bride, fighting for an actual career, shocking the system a bit. If the DFA guy can hit, why can't we?

    This is setting up too well, I'm suspicious.

    While very much a Rocco critic credit where credit is due. Ober is clearly a testament to the Twins development program and Bride gives the coaching staff credit for a hands adjustment that has turned 4-40 into a rope strokin' machine. Question. It's been said the Twins cannot beat a good team. Does that mean Cleveland is not a good team, or that they can, in fact, beat a quality opponent?

    Ride the wave. Go Twins!




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