The Tyler Mahle Trade Was Still the Right Trade

1 hour ago, Eicemann said:

Mahle's history of shoulder issues had me concerned from the start.  Shoulder injuries are often more chronic in nature than elbow injuries.  Ligament replacement surgery is now commonplace & there is a high incidence of successful outcomes and a predictable recovery schedule associated with it. 

One of the common things in sports medicine is one injury leading to another injury; since pain in the shoulder can cause a change in the mechanics which can cause stress to another part of the body, it doesn't surprise me to read he has an elbow injury now that will require surgery. I've read that people say the shoulder and elbow are unrelated and that can't be proven. Soft tissue is a tricky thing.

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Meh. Most trades are defensible. The issue should be is our FO consistently making good trades/bad trades? Are they evaluating talent correctly? I think if you look at all the trades this FO has done, most haven't been that good. This is just another mistake in a line that's getting a bit long.

I agree with the thought but not your conclusion. Trading Cruz for Ryan, big win. Lewin Diaz for Romo, win. Three prospects for Sam Dyson, major rip off by the Giants, but nobody got much value there. The prospects have done very little, although Jaylin Davis is hitting for Boston this year, 3 years later.  Berrios for Martin and SWR? Too early to tell what value we got, if any, but not signing Berrios to a long term big money deal was the right call. He's been poor at best in Toronto. Graetrol and Raley for Maeda and Camargo? Win -Win, Maeda good for Mn before TJ, Graterol ok but not as good as hoped for in LA. Petty for Gray? Short term win for the Twins, too early to tell overall.  Arraez for Pablo Lopez and Salas -  win for the Twins.  A solid #2 starter with upside to possibly be your #1 who can then be signed long term at what I would say is a below market price is much more valuable than a very good singles hitter who can't run or play much defense. Add in what appears to be a good SS prospect makes it even better. 4 MiLB pitchers for Jorge Lopez? Right now, win Twins but we'll see how Povich does ( decent now at AA) and Cano is pitching a lot better there than he did in MN. Rogers and Rooker for Paddack and Pagan? Looking better for us now with Pagan actually contributing this year, and Rogers and Rooker no longer with SD.  Depends on if Paddack comes back and becomes a solid mid-rotation starter. If he does, win Twins. If not, we lose. Finally (and I'm sure I missed some), Urshela for Hidalgo. Hard to say - Urshela is a singles hitter with no power for the Angels who doesn't play every day and leaves after this year as a free agent. Hidalgo looks pretty good in High A but is a long ways off. Too early to tell, unlikely to move the needle much either way.  

My point is that the track record is far from perfect but actually is pretty good. We traded away a quality hitter with little defensive value (Arraez), an as of now struggling starter on a big contract (Berrios), a decent but not great reliever (Graterol), a quality reliever coming up on free agency (Rogers), a 40 year old DH who has tanked since he left (N Cruz), a decent 3B who really is a utility guy because of his no power bat and limited fielding range (Urshela), a bunch of prospects who so far haven't really panned out for the teams that got them with possible exception of Steer, CES (hated to lose him) and Cano, and 2 prospects who are a long way away but may be good in Povich and Petty. In return, we got three now #2/#3 starters (P Lopez, Gray, Ryan - the guts of our rotation), a good back end reliever ( J Lopez), three solid starters now hurt who may come back to make a contribution (Paddack, Maeda, Mahle), whatever we want to call Pagan (awful in 22, not so bad in 23), and prospects we still have who may or may not become something (SWR, Martin, Henriquez, Hidalgo). I think it's a little unfair to say this FO's trades are a long line of mistakes. Overall, I think we've done better than 50/50.  

5 hours ago, CRF said:

They already signed Paddack to an extension. He won't be a free agent until after the 2025 season. 

I understand that - I'm interested to see how that plays out for the Twins.

5 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

It was the wrong move, period. Will they survive it? Maybe. But this FO continues to bleed talent, while taking risks on health. That's unwise.

Of the talent that they 'bled' who would be playing for them right now, and who would be expected to get in front of their current crop of 'almost ready for prime time' players? Many of the rankings suggest the Twins have a pretty good crop 'down on the farm.' The thing that gets lost in these discussions about prospects is you can't keep them all - eventually there are only 40 keepers, and 26 of them go to the players already on the MLB roster. Some of the prospects given up were getting close to 'the clock is ticking' decision time when the Twins could lose them without any return.

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

From my count Falvine have made 70 trades since they took over. The vast majority are nothing trades of minor leaguers for cash or PTBNL that we never even really notice. I grade a trade as a 1 (clear win), .5 (got a little more than they gave up), 0 (all those nothing trades, or trades that were even), -.5 (got a little less than they gave up), or -1 (clear loss). The average grade I came up with was just over .04. I had 7 trades with negative grades and 11 with positive grades. I don't think they're anything to write home about, but I don't think they've been terrible either. 

I don't disagree with your general conclusion, but some trades are just more impactful than others. This front office made one 'hit it out of the ballpark' trade, getting Joe Ryan for a couple of months of Nelson Cruz. I would argue the Ryan Pressley trade was pretty bad as well. Everything else sort of washes a bit either way. That said, I think trades for established players and giving up prospects (when you have a decent pipeline) often gets undervalued.  I think the Sonny Gray trade was a really good trade, for example, because there is so much risk with kids right out of high school. Regardless of how well he does, we've gotten two solid years (and this year maybe more so) from Gray.

Well articulated position.  I did not like the trade at the time. I thought the price was way too high.  It is very unfortunate the way it worked out.