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We're already counting down the days until the MLB Trade Deadline on August 3, but there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding what exactly the Minnesota Twins should do. Depending on who you ask, you'll get a completely different answer.
A lot of people think the Twins should be sellers once again. At the same time, there's still a sizable group that believes Minnesota should be an aggressive buyer, especially considering how underwhelming the AL Central has been this season. This time of year always makes things difficult. We're just over halfway through the season, but the standings remain incredibly tight. It's hard to know exactly where teams stand when one good week can completely change the outlook of a division race. There's still time for the Twins to gain some clarity, but the pressure is about to ramp up in a hurry.
So, what should the Twins do at this year's trade deadline? And what would each path mean for the rest of the roster? A lot of that answer, obviously, depends on where they sit in about two weeks. The Twins currently own a 39-44 record, but they're still only 4.5 games behind in the AL Central. That's close enough to keep hope alive, but far enough back that another rough stretch could all but end any realistic postseason aspirations.
The next 12 games should tell us a lot. Minnesota has three-game series coming up against the Rockies, Astros, Yankees and Guardians. If they somehow manage to go 8-4 during that stretch, the conversation around this team could look drastically different than it does today. On the flip side, if they go 4-8, the front office may not have much of a choice. Regardless of what happens over the next couple weeks, though, I still think the likeliest outcome is that the Twins end up as sellers.
If that's the route they take, several names should immediately jump to the top of the trade market. Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Trevor Larnach, and Kody Clemens all make a lot of sense. Larnach, in particular, feels like someone who should be moved regardless of where the Twins are in the standings. Minnesota simply has too many young corner outfielders knocking on the door in Triple-A, and eventually they're going to need everyday opportunities. Beyond that, all four players represent guys who are either in the prime of their careers or short-term pieces that probably aren't going to move the needle much for the Twins beyond this season.
If those four players are traded, though, the lineup would suddenly look dramatically different. Four of the five hitters that typically occupy the top of Minnesota's lineup would be gone. The Twins would need a new catcher, a new primary left fielder, a designated hitter, and someone capable of filling the many different roles Clemens has handled this season. That creates opportunities for younger players.
Alan Roden feels like one of the biggest beneficiaries. He has the defensive versatility to play either corner outfield spot, and his offensive production at Triple-A has looked more than deserving of a promotion. This would also be the perfect opportunity to finally see exactly what Aaron Sabato can offer at the major league level. The former first-round pick from the 2020 MLB Draft may never become the Twins' long-term answer at first base (and realistically probably won't), but when a player has produced 35 extra-base hits and a .927 OPS in Triple-A, it's worth finding out if there's something there before completely moving on.
Catcher probably wouldn't change much immediately. Jeffers is already sidelined with a fractured hamate bone, so the Twins have already begun adjusting behind the plate without him. The biggest winners, however, would likely be the organization's wave of outfield prospects. Assuming he returns healthy, Emmanuel Rodriguez should receive even more opportunities down the stretch if the Twins pivot toward evaluating young talent. Walker Jenkins, Hendry Mendez, and Gabriel Gonzalez could all benefit as well, especially if multiple outfield spots suddenly become available over the final two months of the season.
Of course, the Twins probably wouldn't stop at trading only four players. Taylor Rogers is another obvious candidate. He's an experienced left-handed reliever, and contenders are always looking to add bullpen help in July. Even Yoendrys Gomez could generate interest despite arriving less than two months ago. The Twins showed at last year's deadline that they aren't afraid to aggressively move relievers, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them take a similar approach again if they decide to sell.
Then there are the two names everyone always talks about. Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan have been connected to trade rumors for what feels like years now. Buxton's situation is a little different because he owns a no-trade clause. If the Twins agreed to a deal, he would still have the ability to veto it. Ryan doesn't have that luxury. So how far out of the playoff picture would Minnesota need to be before seriously considering moving one of them? Or even both? And if they did, what kind of return could they realistically expect?
The answer is probably a massive one. Both players have multiple years of team control remaining, both are among the best in baseball at their respective positions, and both would instantly become one of the most sought-after players available at the deadline.
The Twins wouldn't simply be acquiring prospects in return. A trade involving Ryan or Buxton could realistically bring back major league-ready talent, along with one or more premium prospects capable of impacting the organization's future. I've been pretty vocal about my belief that the Twins should trade Joe Ryan–I don't necessarily feel that same way about Byron Buxton. But there's no denying the type of return either would command.
That's what makes the trade deadline so fascinating every single year. It's one of the most exciting times on the baseball calendar. Unfortunately for Twins fans, that excitement probably won't come from adding talent this summer. Instead, there's a very real chance the roster we see today looks nothing like the one we'll be watching just a little over a month from now.
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