Roster Cuts Narrow Bullpen Competition

I think we are too assumptive that Fein is a lock due to his veteran status.

Fien is a lock because he is guaranteed $2.28 million.  We're past the point where we can cut arbitration eligible players for one month termination pay.

Holy Weird Stat which tells us pretty much nothing. Ha!

 

Is that in the big leagues or is that spring training? Because O'Rourke only has like a half-season. Runtzler was up a bit, but that was about 4-5 years ago.

You can read up on it at B-Ref. It is who they are facing in spring training, what level those guys were at last year. A nice shortcutt look at who is get priority reps in ST.

Actually does a darn good job of predicting the 25 man roster in most cases.

Just saw the later comment when you mentioned it was for the Spring. Then I'd say that it's also not too strong of a stat because they can only face the batters they're sent in to face. That's up to the manager, and the plan for the day.

Seth, that is the whole point. If the manager is only sending a guy out to face scrubs, that tells us something about their evaluation of the player.

Does it though? It seems kind of random to me, as most bullpen guys are in the 7-8 range. Is there really that much of a difference between 7.8 and 8.3?

I didn't say it meant a ton, but it is probably the most useful quantitative measure in ST.

Abad is a lock, and his 8.8 represents that. Like any measure, its relative usefulness lessens as the gap narrows, but it can still be useful even if isn't definitive.

I think the other issue is that there are two managers. A manager could set up a guy to face the heart of the other team's order only for the other team to start subbing in different guys. It seems like an interesting tool for some insight but not something to make a call on?

There is a pretty well established order in spring training that most managers follow. It is not super precise, there will be times when a starter comes out early or an unexpected scrub makes an early appearance, but over a month it is probably a pretty good indicator.

And I am not suggesting making a call on this data -- it is simply a rough quantification of decisions/priorities already made. I'd use it to say that Kintzler is probably more likely to make the club than his non-roster status would suggest, and that O'Rourke is probably the reverse. But certainly multiple ways this could play out among that group.

The OPQual stat has been around for a few seasons at least. I hadn't thought of interpreting it as a measure of the team's own evaluation of the player but it makes perfect sense.

Yeah. You can use it to help explain good/bad spring performances, but as we all know there is so much noise in those numbers anyway, it is hard to adjust them to anything too meaningful.

So instead I look at it less as another "stat" and more as a record of opportunities/priorities.

Or that the manager (FO) is setting the table?

Not sure what you mean? Isn't that what I said? They usually use their preferred guys against the other team's preferred guys.

If Duffey goes to AAA and Nolasco goes to the rotation, that would open another pen spot, no? I could see both Pressly and Kintzler in that scenario. Not that I endorse it, just that it is plausible.