Shelton - How Many Games Did He Win?

[Dave Borton]

Always curious to hear knowledgeable discussion re: how many games a manager produced. Think beyond use of BP. How many games do you award Shelton of the 77 wins.

I will give him 4. Work with the youth and a messy, injury plagued starting rotation and a haphazard collection of arms in the BP.

A difficulty is assessing the clubhouse. Be it the local reporting or the culture of the Twins, mum seems to be the word.

[bean5302]

AAA replacement team = 45 wins.
Fangraphs fWAR = +31.0.
Baseball Reference bWAR = +28.5
Pythagorean = 75

Expected wins = 73.5-76.0
Actual wins = 77.0

I'm not sure how much of the wins Shelton provided. I don't think he was always trotting the best line up out there or the best defensive positioning choices. 

[Riverbrian]

I don't know... it's really hard to know for sure.

He (or the front office) seemed to be more decisive in regards to necessary changes. Like Lewis and Wallner sent down, Lee to 3B and Keaschall to the OF. Baldelli (or the front office) seemed to be slower to respond. 

Seemed... I offer no proof of that assumption. 

Did that decisiveness mean wins? We were 22-27 when Lewis was sent down and Lee moved to SS. We were 38-44 when they decided to move Keaschall. We were 56-56 at the trade deadline. So we went from 5 games below .500 - (Major adjustment)  - to playing .500 ball (major adjustment) to playing above .500 ball until the trade deadline which led to acquisition of bullpen help along with basically locking into a lineup and watching that locked in lineup perform worse than Lee at SS and Lewis at 3B way back in the beginning. 

Assuming that these were the managers decisions. I'd say he won us some games leading up to the deadline by searching for better and moving decisively. Then he gave it all right back after the deadline as he stopped looking for better. Just sat frozen as it fell apart. 

I'll say in the end. He cost us a game or two.