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    Just One Of 162, But Twins Win Felt Big


    Seth Stohs

    To make too much of any one game is silly. We all know it’s just one game. One out of 162. Despite that knowledge, on several levels, the Twins 7-1 win on Opening Day against the Kansas City Royals felt important. It felt important on a number of levels. Let us count the ways.

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today

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    While no one will say it, it was clear in spring training that the Twins wanted to get off to a good start in 2017. That showed in their Opening Day roster configuration. It was an early pitcher's duel, but it was an important game for the Twins to try to find a way to win.

    And they did.

    First of all, it was Opening Day. Opening Day is always special and deserves to be treated as such. We’ve been waiting since last September for “real” baseball games. Baseball is back, so there should be renewed hope and optimism.

    Joe Mauer started on Opening Day for the 13th time in his career, tying Harmon Killebrew with the most in team history. He batted fourth, something that he has been doing the last couple of weeks in spring training.

    Paul Molitor announced on Sunday that he planned to start all four left-handed hitters despite talented left-hander Danny Duffy starting for the Royals. Why? Right or wrong, you just start your regulars on Opening Day, unless you have a predetermined platoon. That made for quite the challenge because Duffy was on his game. He was good. The lineup will likely be different against lefties going forward, and that will be fun to see, but for this game, it worked.

    The Twins hadn’t won an Opening Day game since Livan Hernandez led them to a win in 2008. That’s eight straight Opening Day losses. All of those seasons, it was “just one game” too, but it’s always nice to get off to a good start and set a tone the first game. But it’s just another negative statistic that ends.

    It is also nice to get a nice win in front of the home crowd. 39,165 fans came out to Target Field in large part because it was Opening Day. While there will be a severe drop in attendance when the Twins take the field again on Wednesday against the Royals, seeing the team win and put up some runs will hopefully create some excitement and encourage fans to come back.

    Despite 17 Quality Starts in 2016, Ervin Santana went just 7-11 a year ago. He rarely gave up many runs, but either the offense wouldn’t score for him or the bullpen blew small leads.

    That’s how the game looked to be going again on Monday. When Santana walked off the mound, having struck out three in the top of the 7th inning, the score was tied 1-1. Lefty Matt Strahm, the West Fargo native who gave up just three earned runs in 22 innings late last year, came in. Jorge Polanco blooped a single just outside the infield. Max Kepler beat out a bunt (after review). Eddie Rosario laid down a very nice sacrifice bunt. Brian Dozier was intentionally walked, without being pitched to, something we’ll have to get used to. Robbie Grossman walked in a run.

    Peter Moylan was brought in and got Byron Buxton to strike out for the second out of the inning. Another pitching change and lefty Travis Wood came in. Joe Mauer walked in another run to make it 3-1. Miguel Sano walked to make it 4-1. Jason Castro slapped a single to left to drive in Grossman and Mauer and make it 6-1. Jorge Polanco hit his second single of the inning. This one drove in the Twins seventh run.

    Not one hard hit ball. But that’s OK. We’ll take that as Twins fans. They showed a good approach. They showed patience at the plate. They didn’t try to do too much. They took what they were given and came through against the Royals bullpen.

    Fun fact… after posting a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings last year for the Royals, Matt Strahm starts his 2017 season with a 108.00 ERA after today’s outing. Note that he is going to be just fine. His stuff is electric, and it’s not like the Twins hit him.

    We know that individual pitcher Wins are an overrated stat, but it is a stat that people pay attention to. Ervin Santana pitched very, very well, and he was rewarded with a Win.

    It should also be noted that Danny Duffy is tremendous and equally deserving of a Win (though he only went six innings, instead of seven like Santana). He throws a good fastball in the 92-94 mph range. However, it’s his changeup that could push him into the elite category. He’s got a really good curveball too but it’s his changeup that earned him the five year, $65 million contract extension.

    Matt Belisle came on for the eighth and went 1-2-3 in his Twins debut. Brandon Kintzler came on for the ninth and got a double play ball and a groundout to end the game.

    Ervin Santana gets the Win. The Offense showed up late. The bullpen did not have to be extended.

    Jason Castro went 2-3 in his Twins debut, slapping two singles to left field, the second obviously being a huge one. It’s always nice to get off to a good start with a new team.

    In 2015, the Twins went 0-3 to start the season and were outscored 22-1 in those games in Detroit. They won just one of their first seven games. Obviously they didn’t want to start 0-9 like they did in 2016 either. Of course, winning game one doesn’t mean they won’t be 1-9 after ten games, but getting that first win should help the Twins relax as they go into the rest of the series.

    While he went 0-5 with three strikeouts in the season opener, Byron Buxton showed off his defensive prowess. Not once, but twice. He made two diving catches. The first was on a low liner off the bat of Alex Gordon. Buxton dove forward to make the inning-ending catch. A couple of innings later, he actually took a mis-step. He took one step back on a short fly ball. As he reversed direction and headed in, he nearly slipped. But then his speed took over, and he outran the ball, leaping forward to make another great catch. Patience will need to be used with Buxton’s bat. He won’t hit like he did in September all the time, but hopefully they’ll keep him in the #3 spot in the lineup and let him play.

    Let’s talk a little more about the defense. The outfield is going to be terrific. Buxton made two diving catches, and he’s flanked by Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler who each have good range and strong arms too. Brian Dozier made a couple of very nice plays at second base, including a glove-flip to first base to get Raul Mondesi, Jr. by a step on a nice bunt attempt.

    The question marks on defense are on the left side of the infield. Miguel Sano made two or three routine plays at third base, and he caught back-to-back high pop ups. Routine for most, though he had some issues with that last year, in Rochester and with the Twins. Jorge Polanco had a good day at shortstop. He was involved in a couple of big double plays, and he made the plays he needed to. As we’ve noted all along, if those two can make those routine plays most of the time, the Twins will be just fine.

    Robbie Grossman had a two-true outcomes game today. A three-true outcomes player is a guy who hits a lot of home runs, walks, and strikes out a lot. On Opening Day, Grossman went 0-3 with three strikeouts and two walks.

    Miguel Sano really struggled early in spring training, striking out a ton. Late in camp, he started making some hard contact. In Game 1, he made some really hard contact on a Danny Duffy fastball, crushing it into the left field seats. He also showed a much better eye at the plate too, which is encouraging.

    How good was it to see Rick Stelmaszek throw out the first pitch? The former Twins coach (for 32 years) has been battling pancreatic cancer. But it was clear how much he was respected when you saw how many former players showed up to be on the field with him. On the field included former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire who will have surgery due to his prostate cancer and then begin treatments. Gardenhire was on the field with his new club, the Diamondbacks, on Sunday in their season opener. However, thanks to early-season scheduling, he was able to make the trip.

    Also, recently-retired former Twins catcher AJ Pierzynski, who also just signed to continue to work as an analyst for Fox Sports, was also on the field. So was still-unsigned Justin Morneau. It was a great moment.

    Yes, it was just one game. There are 161 left, but it was really nice for the Twins (and their fans) to get a win in their opener. At the very least, they don’t have to wait a couple of days to try to pick up that first win.

    My sense in Ft. Myers, and even moreso after seeing the Opening Day roster choices, was the the Twins really don’t want to get off to a bad start. Winning Game 1 felt more important than usual. While it really wasn’t, and no one would say that it was, it really had a different feel than many Opening Days.

    It’s important not to make too much of it, but it’s OK to find the positives in it. And hopefully the start of Ervin Santana will propel the rest of the rotation to want to put up strong numbers in their first starts. And hopefully putting a seven spot on the scoreboard will help relax the hitters a bit. It was a nice win to hopefully build upon. And hopefully the fans can turn their negativity into some positivity. OK, that’ll take a few more than one win, I’m sure… But you can’t win two games until you’ve won one. The Twins have won one, so now they can go after win #2.

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    Nah, I strongly hope for the former:

     

    1. I like watching a winning team

    2. If the Twins are in the race, that means they're getting solid contributions from their core of young players

     

    If the Twins get all the way to the break hovering around .500, it means a good portion of Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Mejia, and Berrios are having acceptable or better seasons.

    Let's not get lost in the weeds. In the big picture theyre still multiple pitchers away from playoff contention. If Erv keeps it up, I sure would like a nice haul of prospects to help make the next step toward being a playoff team.

     

    Let's not get lost in the weeds. In the big picture theyre still multiple pitchers away from playoff contention. If Erv keeps it up, I sure would like a nice haul of prospects to help make the next step toward being a playoff team.

    They have the first pick in this year's draft. They can move Dozier and not be impacted at the level they'll be impacted by losing Santana.

     

    There is literally one rookie on this team. We're past the point of collecting prospects for the future and hoping for high draft picks. This team needs to start winning baseball games or it's unlikely they'll ever win baseball games with this core.

     

    If the Twins are out of it and trade Santana, that's the right move... but I refuse to hope they lose baseball games because it means their young core stalled out for the third consecutive season.

     

    If Sano and Buxton stumble again, it's unlikely they'll ever be above average players. These aren't guys with 200 MLB PAs to their name anymore. Sano has 800 MLB PAs. This is the point where they either start performing or it's unlikely they'll ever perform at the MLB level. Buxton has a bit more flexibility in both age and experience but he'll finish this season with around 1100 MLB PAs if he stays healthy.

    One game - we can not really over analyze it, but the fact is fans needed this as much as the Twins players did.  The sense of doom can be put aside for a few days and we can celebrate the fact that in 2017 we will have been above .500 during the season!

    Well I missed it driving from Tenn. to Wisc.  I must of clicked the radio 200 times trying to find any baseball and found none as no Chicago teams played due to rain, and it rained all the way so I figured there was a good chance the Twins were rained out.  How nice to finally check into a motel and see they won, and Santana got the win. There were many games last year he pitched well and was left with nothing. So I'll get home tonight, and no game, bummer. 

    I'm not hoping they lose baseball games either.

     

    Literally a week ago the concensus on this site was this is a ~75 win team. So if that's the case, what good is it to have Erv Santana doing well on a 75 win team? He can provide real value in a trade getting MLB ready players in return. And the Twins get out before Santana's end of career decline.

     

    If they are above .500 and sniff a wild card on July 30, **** it and go for it.

     

    Until that happens I'm operating under the assumption that this is a non playoff 75 win team.

     

    I'm not hoping they lose baseball games either.

    Literally a week ago the concensus on this site was this is a ~75 win team. So if that's the case, what good is it to have Erv Santana doing well on a 75 win team? He can provide real value in a trade getting MLB ready players in return. And the Twins get out before Santana's end of career decline.

    If they are above .500 and sniff a wild card on July 30, **** it and go for it.

    Until that happens I'm operating under the assumption that this is a non playoff 75 win team.

    The thing is that using a linear arc, a 75 win season means they're a fringe contender at the deadline, probably within a few games of .500.

     

    If the Twins sell in that situation, I'm okay with that... but I'm going to hope for better because it's in the best long-term interest of this team to win baseball games.

     

    It's also possible the Twins are awful in the first half and decent in the second half but I'm not going to hope for bad-then-good. That seems like a bit too much to ask.

     

    Huh?   Buxton played great D and Grossman had a key walk.    Kepler had a game changing bunt single.    People here undervalue bunt singles but teams just do not defend bunts very well and it seems to rattle teams and pitchers way more than solid singles do.  No goats here.    

    I'd "like" your post , but I'm told I exceeded "my likes" for the day       :confused:       as it did yesterday, on the game thread. Must be a 24 hour deal as to the day....well I like your post!!!!

    Edited by Jerr

    I thought the veteran Santana was a great cheerleader yesterday. He regularly clapped or pointed at the defenders when they made their plays.

     

    Keep reminding everyone that their play is important and that good defensive play is appreciated.

    It looked like a veteran pitcher motivating his team. Nice touch.

     

    I'm not hoping they lose baseball games either.

    Literally a week ago the concensus on this site was this is a ~75 win team. So if that's the case, what good is it to have Erv Santana doing well on a 75 win team? He can provide real value in a trade getting MLB ready players in return. And the Twins get out before Santana's end of career decline.

    If they are above .500 and sniff a wild card on July 30, **** it and go for it.

    Until that happens I'm operating under the assumption that this is a non playoff 75 win team.

     

    To add to this, if they are a legitimate fringe .500 team this year, backed up by underlying stats, it is not a huge jump to think they could improve some more and be better in 2018. Wouldn't it be helpful to have Santana for that season? Nothing wrong with capturing some of the excess value of Santana for the Twins.

     

    I don't really expect this, so I would anticipate a trade of Santana, but if given the two choices that were offered, I would greatly prefer that the Twins are playing well and that it makes sense to keep Santana and things are looking positive for 2018. I am not hoping for a position where it is clear they should unload him.

     

    They have the first pick in this year's draft. They can move Dozier and not be impacted at the level they'll be impacted by losing Santana.

     

    There is literally one rookie on this team. We're past the point of collecting prospects for the future and hoping for high draft picks. This team needs to start winning baseball games or it's unlikely they'll ever win baseball games with this core.

     

    If the Twins are out of it and trade Santana, that's the right move... but I refuse to hope they lose baseball games because it means their young core stalled out for the third consecutive season.

     

    If Sano and Buxton stumble again, it's unlikely they'll ever be above average players. These aren't guys with 200 MLB PAs to their name anymore. Sano has 800 MLB PAs. This is the point where they either start performing or it's unlikely they'll ever perform at the MLB level. Buxton has a bit more flexibility in both age and experience but he'll finish this season with around 1100 MLB PAs if he stays healthy.

    Honestly I hope the Twins are winning baseball games and still trade Santana for future reinforcements.  I don't want a team that eventually becomes good for a year or two then fizzles out as guys age or move on in free agency, etc.  I want a team that gets good and stays good due to wise front office decisions in the the years prior to and during good seasons.

     

    The Twins have 104 games scheduled up until the trade deadline.  If they are are around 54-50 I think most fans would be happy.  But most likely they will still be 5+ games out of first in the central and a few out of the wild card race.  If they have that record most of the young core will likely have performed well.  I would be fine trading the staff ace at that point in order to get more young pieces to plug in now and in the future.  

    I like it when the Twins win.

     

    I like ESan, still amazes me we didn't hear more about teams wanting to trade for him.

     

    Not a huge fan of the lack of hitting, but Duffy is a great pitcher, and you don't swing at bad pitches and get good results, so scoring all the runs that way is still good, if not indicative of what I hope we see. 

    My oh my, Sano can crush the ball. Nice to see that again. Anything that flies that far should have a stewardess on it!

     

    Erv looked great, not too many Ks, but that's fine, strikeouts are fascist. Nice to see him get the 3 at the end, though.

     

    Hope to see a different lineup against leftys from here on out, but its Opening Day, I get starting the "regulars." 

     

    Winning is fun!

    Honestly I hope the Twins are winning baseball games and still trade Santana for future reinforcements. I don't want a team that eventually becomes good for a year or two then fizzles out as guys age or move on in free agency, etc. I want a team that gets good and stays good due to wise front office decisions in the the years prior to and during good seasons.

     

    The Twins have 104 games scheduled up until the trade deadline. If they are are around 54-50 I think most fans would be happy. But most likely they will still be 5+ games out of first in the central and a few out of the wild card race. If they have that record most of the young core will likely have performed well. I would be fine trading the staff ace at that point in order to get more young pieces to plug in now and in the future.

    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players.

     

    And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.

     

    I recognize and accept the contributions of both Grossman and Kepler in successfully executing sacrifice bunts when called upon to do so as being above the call of duty and both were game changers. Also the defensive contribution of Buxton is not to be taken lightly. I can back off a bit in creferring to the 3 as goats. That said, their lack of offensive contribution in other portions of the game made their 7th inning bunts important. Had they delivered hits when called upon on other occasions, those bunts would may not have been necessary. Take another look at the cumulative game statistics of the first 4 in the Twin's lineup.

    I recognize and accept that you were probably being sarcastic in your first sentence but it was the word goat that I objected to.    If you look up goat and sports on google you will not find an instance of a goat on the winning side.    If a 3 point specialist went 1-5 from beyond the arc no one would say he had a great game but if they won by 1 or 2 you would still say he made a contribution that was key in winning the game.  No, Mauer and Dozier didn't do all that much either but they did enough.  

    It's one game and I'm not peeing on the parade. Considering it's been 9 seasons since we won an opener, let's take it and run.

     

    From what I can see in one game, we have some issues...but the outfield isn't one of them.  DH is.  That will need to be fixed.  Having a DH that isn't a threat to hit double digit home runs for a year is an issue.  Agree with the left side of the infield assessment - do the routine, catch the balls that you should catch and make the throws that you need to make and we are good.  Fly balls are an adventure for Sano though...and that will come back to bite us.

     

    It seemed to me that the ump had a pretty small zone.  While Buxton didn't get a hit, he did have one really good at bat that drove up the pitch count.  If the young guys can have quality at bats, it really helps to wear down a pitcher and Duffy was clearly the tougher pitcher...but he didn't win.  That's baseball.

    Edited by gocgo

     

    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players.

    And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.

     

    tough call at that point. I wonder what my lines would be on that....how close before I don't trade ... though I believe it would depend on how I got there. Let's hope we actually have to discuss if they should deal for help, and not just deal to get more future...

     

    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players.

    And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.

    I agree. I don't necessarily like "giving up" on a season either because the future is never certain and I would like to see them be relevant again right now. But if the right circumstances came around to perhaps bolster the roster for years beyond next season I could get on board.

     

    Where I think making this sort of trade would be problematic is from a PR stand point.  If the team is in contention and they trade their best pitcher for a bunch of guys the casual fan has never heard of and most likely will not see for a year or two, they could lose some fan interest in a hurry.   

     

    It's one game and I'm not peeing on the parade. Considering it's been 9 seasons since we won an opener, let's take it and run.

     

    From what I can see in one game, we have some issues...but the outfield isn't one of them.  DH is.  That will need to be fixed.  Having a DH that isn't a threat to hit double digit home runs for a year is an issue.  Agree with the left side of the infield assessment - do the routine, catch the balls that you should catch and make the throws that you need to make and we are good.  Fly balls are an adventure for Sano though...and that will come back to bite us.

     

    It seemed to me that the ump had a pretty small zone.  While Buxton didn't get a hit, he did have one really good at bat that drove up the pitch count.  If the young guys can have quality at bats, it really helps to wear down a pitcher and Duffy was clearly the tougher pitcher...but he didn't win.  That's baseball.

    Buxton's results weren't great, but he definitely didn't look like Buxton of last May/June.  He was taking solid swings and was not chasing garbage.  In his 2nd AB against Duffey, he just missed one and fouled it straight back and then when he put it in play he hit it hard.  I don't know how he does it but it seems like Buxton always has a 2 strike count.  Also, on his 3rd strikeout he wasn't fooled by the breaking ball that he got from Moylan.  He was on it but just seemed to be hair ahead of it.  Hopefully he gets that timing down better because that breaking ball, even though he was on it, was a hanger that could have been crushed. 

    Loved the win, and loved the fact that they did it by playing solid, fundamental baseball. Taking walks when given to them and playing good defense. Hopefully they can keep that up all year.

     

    That being said, am I the only one with a huge concern over hitting Buxton in the 3 hole? Kid has great potential and looks like a totally different hitter now, but he has still never had real success in the bigs. I know he had a good September, but it's pretty broadly accepted that September stats should be taken with a grain of salt due to roster expansion. He's finally showing that he may be turning a corner after a good spring training so I don't understand why you would throw him in a spot with a ton of added pressure at this point. It very likely may have been simply because Mollie wanted his lefties to hit and they had a tough lefty on the mound, but if that was the concern why not switch Buxton and Polanco? Buxton needs to just go out and play as pressure free as possible to find some success and then move up the order. Polanco has shown he can hit big league pitching. I don't like the added pressure on Buxton at all. I think he's a confident guy and a few bad games in the 3 hole won't kill that confidence, but why even put him in that position?




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