The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

DeSclafini and Bundy are very similar. We are hoping on DeSclafini’s good season two years ago. Did we forget that Bundy received Cy Young votes two years prior to joining the Twins? DeSclafini’s ERA last year was 4.88 after a good start. Bundy’s ERA with the Twins was 4.89 after a good start. They have similar strike out rates and walk rates.

Is there a risk that the Twins will keep giving DeSclafini starts because they did not find a better alternative? Would this deal had been better if DeSclafini were not included?

The Twins have really done exactly what they told us that they would this offseason. Falvey said we are lowering payroll. Check. Rocco says a big move is coming. Check. The Twins really believe in Brooks Lee. I'm surprised they are as open as they have been. Now, did Falvey say it?, we are going to add a RH bat who can play OF or maybe 1B. Duvall really checks those boxes IMO.

8 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

The last part of your first question is key. After a good start, Bundy kept getting starts because the alternatives were Anibel Sanchez, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Chi Chi Gonzalez and the 2022 versions of Varland, Woods Richardson and Sands.

I think we're optimistic that this year's 7-12 are better than that crew. If they are, and if DeSclafini is at 4.89, I doubt he gets 29 starts like Bundy did. 

Dylan Bundy average 89 mph on fastball,  and Desclafani averaging 93 mph (but closer to his average of 94 to 95 mph early in the season when healthy are completely different situations).  Bundy's injuries had already zapped his velocity.  

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

We have decent chances to be #2 or #3 in Ober and Ryan. Paddack is probably going to be too innings-limited to reach that level. 

What I am saying is if we could trade for a legit #2 starter, we could make Ryan, Paddack and Ober 3,4,5.  Varland and Winder in the wings.  It would make our rotation pretty good!

2 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

The reason I don't like it...and what I think John is saying...is that it doesn't do anything to help 2024. Polanco is still a really good hitter. He's valuable. There's a reason Seattle really wanted him. And he would still have been valuable for the Twins this coming season seeing time at 2B/DH/possibly 1B and occasionally at 3B even. But he was the right guy to move to add a quality arm to the rotation. And I don't have a problem with him being traded. And the package they got back...based on value...was very good.

But it didn't fulfill the #1 priority for 2024 that remains adding a high quality arm for the rotation. Whether it be Seattle, Miami, or team X, if Polanco was worth a solid pen arm, a top 100 prospect, $8M in cash, and a couple other flier arms, then why on earth couldn't Polanco and a solid prospect or two be put together for a package to bring in that good arm? Isn't that still the #1 priority for this team?

So to me, it's not a "winning value" for the trade. It's about removing a very good hitter from the club and adding a pen arm for 2024 and a cross your fingers and hope rotation arm.

 

Saying Desclafani and Topa will not help the team in 2024 is your perspective only.  Now its clear the Twins wanted Miller or Woo and were close, but ultimately its clear the Mariners were not going to part with either.  Polanco was never going to get you that high end starter you want.  If the Twins want to go for that,  its going to cost 1 of 5 players,  Lewis, Julien, Lee or Walker and possibly Soto.   Mariners were the team willing to offer the most for Polanco, end of story, they maximized their value with what the Mariners were willing to give up and they were unwilling to go Miller or Woo.  

Where is that high end starter coming from,  you are also ignoring that the Twins could do something else this offseason or 2 that you may have more pieces to trade for a starter at the deadline.  

I think Topa and Desclafani are more than just a low end pen arm and cross your fingers starter.  Right now its your #3 to #4 reliever, and most likely a #4 to #5 starter that has the possibility at being a strong #3, low end #2.   Also if Desclafani is the real deal,  it allows Varland to become a full time reliever, and now we are talking about a very very strong bullpen.   

Look there is a ton of projection here.  You are also projecting that Polanco can stay healthy.  This trade gave us additional flexibility,  it added to our coffers for another potential move as well.   I will wait to see what the final roster is,  but I like the trade.   

The majority of this trade is tied to Gonzalez though.   

I will laugh though if the Twins flip Gonzalez and a prospect or a current pitcher for a high end #2.  Would make a lot of this consternation all for naught.  

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Hats off to SEA for trimming their unneeded fat & filling a gaping need that improves their chances of advancing into the postseason. We lost a great clubhouse guy, clutch switch hitter & above average, 2Bman & gained nothing. That's not how trades are supposed to work. It's time to get rid of this FO.

Just to make sure you are calling 8 million dollars,  a very solid reliever,  a top 100 prospect and Desclafani, fat that needed trimmed????

I agree with some of your takes this is just dumb.   Now could the trade go sideways,  absolutely.  Could Polo get injured for the season in spring training, absolutely.  Just as much possibility as Gonzalez raking and having the highest BA in high A ball (like he did in A ball) and establishing himself as one of the top 4 prospects in our system.  

We traded from a position of strength.  Now we have more to do.  If we add an additional right handed bat,  it immensely changes the calculus on this trade.  

If we use one of these parts from this trade or another similar piece to trade for a high end starter,  it changes the calculus on this trade.  Its pretty clear we got the most value that anyone was willing to offer for Polanco.  

I seem to remember similar consternation for the trade of Rogers for Pagan and Paddack.  No offense but the Twins won that trade hands down.  Its taken some time,  and an additional contract,  but we are looking at 2 years of a healthy Paddack and we got a decent Pagan last year.  

The twins management are very willing to take on a lot of risk in their trades.  Over time, and over multiple trades,  that risk taking tends to payoff.  It can take time.  They also have clearly targeted injured players in trade returns.  The biggest trade not working out was Mahle.  However the Rogers for Paddack and Pagan, the twins trade for Maeda obviously worked in the Twins advantage. Paddack has the potential of being a homerun.    

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They just won the division and advanced in the playoffs, and you want to fire the FO? Unreal.

I guess I'm just frustrated w/ this FO inability to initiate a trade deal. Years past fans complained about lack of trades  & they'd make the excuse that "there were no trades out there", translated meaning no one is approaching them with offers or offers they liked (although those trades would greatly help the team). The truth was there were a lot of trade opportunities to be & were gotten but this FO refused to do so, they'd rather waste money on expensive loser FAs. There are still good trades out there this offseason but our FO is waiting in their office waiting for an offer to come to them that they like.

Note: This FO has made a few good trades but only when they were approached with the offers never vice versa.

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I guess I'm just frustrated w/ this FO inability to initiate a trade deal. Years past fans complained about lack of trades  & they'd make the excuse that "there were no trades out there", translated meaning no one is approaching them with offers or offers they liked (although those trades would greatly help the team). The truth was there were a lot of trade opportunities to be & were gotten but this FO refused to do so, they'd rather waste money on expensive loser FAs.

Note: This FO has made a few good trades but only when they were approached with the offers never vice versa.

So who realistically do the Twins get that you would be happy with?   It takes 2 to tango.   

I think the Pablo trade,  negates most of the concerns you have.  We found our #1 pitcher,  the hardest thing to find.  I am willing to give the team a chance to find its #2 and it may already be on the team.   

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They just won the division and advanced in the playoffs, and you want to fire the FO? Unreal.

They won a division that literally no other team tried to win (in fact Cleveland and Chicago actively tried to lose)  They "advanced" in a playoff round that did not exist for baseball's first 120 years.  Minnesota sports always has the lowest bar imaginable, but "FO is now untouchable after 1 playoff win in 7 years" is about as low as it gets.  Dream bigger!  

16 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Just to make sure you are calling 8 million dollars,  a very solid reliever,  a top 100 prospect and Desclafani, fat that needed trimmed????

I agree with some of your takes this is just dumb.   Now could the trade go sideways,  absolutely.  Could Polo get injured for the season in spring training, absolutely.  Just as much possibility as Gonzalez raking and having the highest BA in high A ball (like he did in A ball) and establishing himself as one of the top 4 prospects in our system.  

We traded from a position of strength.  Now we have more to do.  If we add an additional right handed bat,  it immensely changes the calculus on this trade.  

If we use one of these parts from this trade or another similar piece to trade for a high end starter,  it changes the calculus on this trade.  Its pretty clear we got the most value that anyone was willing to offer for Polanco.  

I tend to agree with you but Polo isn't injury prone. when given the proper time to heal he bounces back pretty quickly so he'll start with a clean slate. But could he be HBP & get a concussion? yes but so could Julien. 

Any of those pieces of the trade wouldn't have any impact of getting the front-end SP that we need if Polanco couldn't by himself. We don't need a CF, certainly not a 1Bman. We have Julien, Kiriloff, Miranda & Farmer. I'd rather have Polanco than any player obtained to jam into CF or 1B.

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I tend to agree with you but Polo isn't injury prone

History shows most second basemen in their thirties are injury prone.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

You're kidding right? The front office has traded for a starter just about every year. And there is zero chance, ZERO that you have any knowledge of how those trades transpired. Again. ZERO.

Only most have been reported as a matter of fact. There might be some minor deals like Romo or Dwyer. that they initiated but not major ones. Even this Polanco trade SEA was the major instigator.

Often you hear FO saying we pursuing this FA or that FA, or we're taking offers. How often have you heard this FO say we pursuing this trade? I have never personally heard them say that. It's a matter of observation & using common sense.

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I tend to agree with you but Polo isn't injury prone. when given the proper time to heal he bounces back pretty quickly so he'll start with a clean slate. But could he be HBP & get a concussion? yes but so could Julien. 

Any of those pieces of the trade wouldn't have any impact of getting the front-end SP that we need if Polanco couldn't by himself. We don't need a CF, certainly not a 1Bman. We have Julien, Kiriloff, Miranda & Farmer. I'd rather have Polanco than any player obtained to jam into CF or 1B.

I tend to think back injuries and lower leg injuries can be chronic.  

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

History shows most second basemen in their thirties are injury prone.

Please show me that record, because it doesn't make any sense to me. Like I said Polo when given the proper time he bounces back faster than most. Just a personal observation. 

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

Please show me that record, because it doesn't make any sense to me. Like I said Polo when given the proper time he bounces back faster than most. Just a personal observation. 

I am more worried about the back and lower leg injuries.  

17 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Out of curiosity, what's your evidence that Seattle initiated this trade?

 

Overall, I don't think their silence is evidence of their not pursuing people. More likely, I think it's evidence of their preference to work below the radar.

“We have liked and tried to acquire him for years,” general manager Justin Hollander said in video conference Monday evening. “I think I’ve personally made more calls on this trade than I ever have on any trade before, at the behest of both of my own want to add him and our group. So really big day for us and I feel like it makes us a lot better.”

May have been a 2 sided conversation, but pretty clear they were initiating some contact here.  Even still if a deal get done I could care less who initiates it, and I think its hysterical that he thinks the front office is just sitting on their hands.