Joey Gallo Shatters Failure Narratives

Why would anyone ever compare anything Joey Gallo does to Harmon Killebrew? Harmon retired as the all time American League leader in home runs for a right handed batter. Yes, he struck out quite a bit but his rate was significantly lower and he hit in the middle of the order for a reason. HK had 77 SF in his career. Gallo? Three (3).

Gallo has worked hard for the Twins this year, but he is what he is, a one dimensional player.

Please think before making comparisons between players.

12 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

He's been exactly what I thought he would be.

Gallo's numbers are a lot more tolerable when you are reviewing his stats and not watching him day after day playing for your team. 

In other words... that OPS looks decent when he is not playing for your team. When he is playing for your team and you watch him day after day... you don't notice the OPS because Those K's are so painful to witness that you can't see anything else. Offensively he is hurting us. 

On the defensive side... I like him... He's solid.

For those who think he has slipped defensively this year. Put the numbers down. He's the same defensive player he has always been. 

 

 

And that's why I hate defensive stats. They unreliable at best..

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

There seems to be so much angst about Ks with fans here. It's an out - teams will have far more of them a game than players reach base safely. Sure, it's generally not productive, but it isn't the abject failure it's sometimes made out to be.  

Of the few available outcomes for an at-bat - walk/HBP, put the ball in play, or strikeout - which is worse than a strikeout?

Gallo is good enough for a .500 team.  

On 7/4/2023 at 12:58 PM, PDX Twin said:

BUT, what is the alternative? My objection to the signing was largely "Why spend the money on him?" It's not like we don't have cheap alternatives as LH power bats who play corner outfield and 1B who may well turn out to be better: Kirilloff, Larnach, and Wallner. And, of course, we also have Kepler if the youngsters don't measure up.

To me, the Gallo signing was a very poor one because we lost a huge amount of development time for those three kids and, really, didn't get much in return (unless you are trying to run up opposing pitchers' strikeout totals, which Gallo does singularly well).

I don't know the specifics, but it seems like Gallo is the equal to Kepler. Playing both at the same time leaves a huge hole in the lineup (although Kepler has been hot lately). I think the Twins FO thought they had a trade lined up to unload Kepler so they signed Gallo but the trade fell through.

Disaster of a signing and disastrous play.  

3-4 mil with incentives fine.. 11 mil insane. 

Highlights the path of Baldelli's thinking .. hit it out of the park or strike out. Poor foresight with the rule change and worse results. 

He should be let go as soon as possible and let some of the young guys play... Walner especially... 

Also while Max is hitting... Trade before he goes back to his norm... which is not very good. 

9 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Hitting into a double play - yet you've put the ball in play.

I'm not asking about the outcome of a ball in play.  I'm asking about the outcome of an at-bat.  

The Twins have grounded into 63 dps and have 708 hits.  So by putting the ball in play they are 10x more likely to get a hit vs a dp.  

They've also struck out 916 times.  So the team has 7x more outs via K than via GIDP.  

This narrative that strikeouts are preferable to putting the ball in play, on the off chance you ground into a dp, needs to stop.  It's factually false.  I truly cannot understand how someone can watch the 2023 Twins and say, yep, Ks are fine, just a type of out.

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And to top it off, most of the same people consider Ks the holy grail of pitching.

100%.  If Ks were truly just a type of out, and teams wanted to induce GIDPs, they'd just fill up their staff with the Zack Grienkes of the world out there and force teams to put the ball in play.  

I'm pretty sure the main purpose of the original post wasn;t as much about k's as it was about the value of a power hitter over a singles hitter...with k's being the expected consequence of having a power bat in the lineup. So if one argues along that line, then of course they will also argue that k's aren't so bad cuz you have to accept them from free swingers trying to hit the ball from Minnesota to Utah.

If Gallo's infrequent HR's singularly win the Twins 10 or 11 games, the argument could be made he is worth the money. But if not, he is clearly a liability because he is definitely a rally killer more often than not,

I guess if we are all sitting at the ballpark and the game goes to the final inning with Twins trailing, men on base...would the discussion be, who do we want up right now? Thats what makes baseball so much fun day in and day out.

Toward the end of the Expos, if one asked me that question I wouldn't blink. It would be Vlad Guerrero everyday all day. A free swinger, but with modest k numbers and an ability to turn a game around in a blink. Some players just ooze excitement; others not so much.

4 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I'm not asking about the outcome of a ball in play.  I'm asking about the outcome of an at-bat.  

The Twins have grounded into 63 dps and have 708 hits.  So by putting the ball in play they are 10x more likely to get a hit vs a dp.  

They've also struck out 916 times.  So the team has 7x more outs via K than via GIDP.  

This narrative that strikeouts are preferable to putting the ball in play, on the off chance you ground into a dp, needs to stop.  It's factually false.  I truly cannot understand how someone can watch the 2023 Twins and say, yep, Ks are fine, just a type of out.

Your math assumes there is a runner at 1B in every AB.

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Does anybody actually go to the plate trying to put the ball in play?

Does anybody actually go to the plate trying to strike out?

If your answer to these two questions is not the same, then please stop trying to equate the two.  It is the source of the disconnect between people's respective positions on the subject.

If a hitter is not going to the plate trying to put the ball in play then I don't know what baseball is.    What's the point of a swing then?

Seriously, what are they doing up there then?  Working on their tan? 

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Your math assumes there is a runner at 1B in every AB.

Of course I'm using generalities but this is a good point.  A strikeout can happen on any at bat; GIDPs require specialized situations and are therefore relatively rare.   All the more reason why excusing strikeouts because GIDPs exist is craziness.

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Okay, so your answer to my first question is Yes. I would agree.

How do you answer the second question?

I am fascinated to learn where you are going with this.  

22 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Of course I'm using generalities but this is a good point.  A strikeout can happen on any at bat; GIDPs require specialized situations and are therefore relatively rare.   All the more reason why excusing strikeouts because GIDPs exist is craziness.

I agree with you on strikeouts and was not even offering an opinion.  It really drives me crazy when they strikeout with a runner on 3rd.  However, IDK what percentage of ABs offer the opportunity for a double play but if it's 1/3, it's worthy of pointing out that the math is off by 3X.

10 minutes ago, ashbury said:

  Again, some go up there to "put the ball in play," none go up to "strike out."  Apples and oranges.

Here's why comparing strikeouts to balls in play is unfair.  One is a failure outcome - nobody thinks strikeouts are good for the offense after they happen, no one.  The other is an intermediate state before the outcome is determined.  And neither takes into account what the batter was trying to do - aiming for home runs includes the acceptance of a higher strikeout rate in return for a higher rate of run-scoring (if successful).

 

Some interesting thoughts here, I think I understand what you are saying.  However I think it's pretty clear that the team has directed the players to swing for the fences and not worry about Ks.   There are many, many analytics guys and writers out there who have been banging the "Ks are just another out" drum for a while.  This is just factually untrue, and emblematic to me of an extreme analytics approach that is hurting this franchise the same way a total lack of analytics hurt the franchise at the end of the Ryan era.   Very few players can hit enough home runs to outweigh huge K rates, and this is exacerbated when the lineup is devoid of guys who can get on base and turn those solo HRs into 2 or 3 run shots.

I don't agree with the notion that comparing Ks to balls in play is unfair when considering if Ks are just another out.  There are a few at bat outcomes available; Ks are definitely, without question, the worst.  I don't think hitters are totally in control of whether they hit a liner or a grounder; the point is simply that putting the ball in play results in a hit 25-30% of the time, unquestionably a better result for the team than striking out.  Not to mention the fact that say on an 0-2 count hitters should take a different approach than at 0-0 - swinging for the fences in that scenario is just not smart hitting.  

The fact is not every player in a lineup can mash enough to make the extreme "grip it and rip it" philosophy successful.  2019 proves this - it takes a juiced ball and career years out of a half dozen guys to make it work, and even then it didn't translate to the playoffs.  You seem to be saying approaches are different between at bats, players, scenarios, etc - I think what you are getting at is "situational hitting".  My point is I don't see much evidence that the Twins teach or emphasize situational hitting,I think they are all in on "grip it and rip it, no matter the situation" and that's a huge problem here. 

Thanks for the good discussion! 

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Absolutely.  Maybe the right phrase would have occurred to me with yet another proofreading pass.  :)

By no means am I defending the Twins, quite the opposite. There is more wrong than simply "cut down on the strikeouts" and I am far from qualified to say what, except that it looks like such an extreme focus on "waiting for a mistake pitch" that the hitters have screwed themselves up and are staring at pitches down the middle while flailing at breaking pitches down and away.

Agreed - much more to it than that.