How the Twins Reshaped Their Identity in a Half-Decade

Given how they are picking up guys that were DFA by their previous team, and all but one is a bargain ... It looks like the same identity to me.

Practically speaking, there's just no way for the money to be "right" this offseason. To make sense from the Twins side, it would have to reflect a lot of uncertainly given Buxton's extremely poor recent performance and health. But to make any sense from Buxton's side, it would have to ignore a lot of that.

 

Note this isn't a commentary about the Twins, or Buxton, or any animosity between them -- it's just a practical reading of circumstances. Teams and players virtually never agree to extensions after a bad/injured seasons, especially not on the level of Buxton's 2018 -- there's just no middle ground or overlap with their competing interests right now.

 

Fortunately, with 4 years control through 2022, it's nothing that can't be reversed by reasonable health/performance in 2019.

This is really well said.  It just doesn't make sense for either side to consider this option right now.   Hell, given the acrimony, I hope nobody is even trying.  The odds of it cementing hard feelings far outweigh the odds of an agreement.

I don't see it. By that same token you could use this quote from Derek Falvey -- “He’s our starting center fielder. That’s who Byron Buxton is. That’s clear to us moving forward." -- in the same way. The team claimed they kept Buxton down in the interest of his long-term health/development, and whether you buy it or not, it's not affected by anything they do now.

 

I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.

It was a mistake to make that stupid statement.

If it was me. I’d say “Byron, I’ll give you a roster spot. The rest is up to you”. I’ve got playing time here and a minor league option over here. I’m prepared for both.

I’ve been on record of saying “I wanted the year back”. But how can you go from sent home in September to named the starting CF before the snow flies.

If the Twins feel they gotta make it up to him now by naming him a starter. It goes from understandable to a bad decision.

 

 

I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.  

Maybe 50M isn't large enough to avoid being thought of as an insult.  It's dangerous water to swim in.  With so little chance of finding the sweet spot, I really hope the team is just avoiding that conversation altogether.

Talk to him about coming in and kicking some serious ass this year.  Talk to him about believing in him about planning on him manning CF.  But leave the extension talks, too much baggage.

Practically speaking, there's just no way for the money to be "right" this offseason. To make sense from the Twins side, it would have to reflect a lot of uncertainly given Buxton's extremely poor recent performance and health. But to make any sense from Buxton's side, it would have to ignore a lot of that.

 

Note this isn't a commentary about the Twins, or Buxton, or any animosity between them -- it's just a practical reading of circumstances. Teams and players virtually never agree to extensions after a bad/injured seasons, especially not on the level of Buxton's 2018 -- there's just no middle ground or overlap with their competing interests right now.

 

Fortunately, with 4 years control through 2022, it's nothing that can't be reversed by reasonable health/performance in 2019.

To add to what Levi said, "he's our starter" is pretty standard issue "we believe in you" rah-rah type stuff. Nothing wrong with that talk by itself -- but if it could be perceived that you are using it in an attempt to coerce him into signing a contract, like your example, then I think it crosses a line right now. I think the Twins will have to settle for simply avoiding a grievance, and hopefully avoiding an acrimonious arbitration hearing, with Buxton this winter.

Edit to add: the Twins could make him a good 1 year offer in arbitration to help smooth the relationship, without bringing up the subject of an extension.

I still think my idea of using the Experimental Psychology Skinnerian approach to help "send a message" to Buxton and his agent on the right way towards a succe$$ful career... (operant conditioning, the subject individual makes an association between a particular behavior and a consequence). Hear me out, to reiterate, a arb-buyout-+-3-more-year contract at much higher base rate- at Twins' option- with the current base somewhere just near or below what is commensurate with his projected arb value.... PLUS huge incentive-laden, health related upgrades:

$.5M bonuses applied at 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150 games played. And the sweetener to seal the deal and lock Buck up to age 31 (2025)? an additonal $5M bonus if he appears in all 162 games.

Buck made $1.75M this year. I don't know what his projected arb # is for 2020. Certainly offering achievable incentives that offer significantly greater rewards for the next 3 arb years has to be enticing to Buck and his agent. In exchange, he gives the Twins potential control with his age 31 year (2025), with a base increase in the 3 out years, besides.

I would think the potential $8M in bonuses, plus say, other potential bonuses for Golden Gloves, MVP votes, etc., would be plenty motivational for Buxton  to re-evaluate his devil-may-care approach in CF.

The thing that convinces me that this is the way to go? When I heard that the Twins were something like 56-22 in games that he has started this year.

Perhaps, the above-proposed contract would "operantly condition" Buxton and resultantly mean less shoulder-separating collisions with inanimate barriers as well as headlong face-planting concussion-causing dirt dives when the worst outcome is only a harmless single falling in front of him.