Grading the 9 Trades from the Twins’ 2025 Trade Deadline

I'm going to grade them from easiest for me to grade, to hardest. I'm also going to use a 0 -100 spread, because A-F isn't big enough for the first one.

Easy for me to grade:

Brock Stewart to the Dodgers — Grade: negative 1 million (on a 0-100 scale)
Return: OF James Outman
Look, Outman is one of the 2000 best baseball players on the planet! That does not make him a MLB player. He's 28, in AAA, and can't beat Kiersey, Martin, or Gasper for a roster spot. He doesn't fit the present, or the future. Get an A ball pitcher with 1 pitch and try to make him a RP......but not a 28 yo you don't even think is a MLB player now. A truly baffling trade.

Carlos Correa to the Astros — Grade: 75
Return: RHP Matt Mikulski, ~$70M in salary relief
Whether they re-use the money or not, it was a good trade for the team from a business perspective, and likely even a baseball perspective. I loved the CC signing, but he's not been CC for a bit of time now, and I think this team is 1-3 years away from being good, so there was no place for him. This either makes the team easier to sell, gives them more payroll room for others, or just gives the Pohlads more money (thankfully, I was getting worried about their ability to even eat). 

Danny Coulombe to the Rangers — Grade: 65
Return: LHP Garrett Horn
If they move Horn to the bullpen, teach him 2 pitches, and are aggressive, he could be in MN in 2027. This FO won't do that, they'll diddle around for 4 years trying to make him a starter....but I actually like this return for Danny. 

Chris Paddack & Randy Dobnak to the Tigers — Grade: 50
Return: C Enrique Jimenez
I really hate they included a negative asset and reduced their return. But, that return was a catcher, and at some point if you throw enough pieces of spaghetti at the wall, one of them might stick. I'm giving this a fairly neutral grade, when maybe I should give it s 30-40? Maybe this should be in the next grouping? OTOH, I'm not sure how much value Paddack really had, so there's that. 

I'm not sure how to grade these:

Harrison Bader to the Phillies — Grade: either a 20 or 85.
Return: OF Hendry Mendez, RHP Geremy Villoria
Mendez kind of excites me! But man, the scouting reports are not great. IMO, I'd move him to 1B or even catcher (? wut?), because he's not likely to play OF for this team given the other options they have. He's either going to hit, or just provide no value. As for Villoria? Who the F has any idea. I don't think there is much in between here. Either he hits and has value, or he has none. But they got them for an expiring deal on a guy that was going to be way too expensive for this ownership group to re-sign.

Jhoan Duran to the Phillies — Grade: Incomplete
Return: C Eduardo Tait, RHP Mick Abel
I mean, sure, if you go by MLB.com, they got two top 100 guys. If you go by Fangrapsh, they got zero (but close). These two have the most upside of any of the guys they got. Huge, high, ceilings. But, man, the floors are also really low. Heck, one of them being really good and the other busting is possible. Both busting is possible. Both working is possible. Abel has great stuff, but can he harness it? Tait is a baby in A ball, those guys are so hard to predict. In other words, the TWins took all the risk here, while dealing their most valuable asset. I really DO NOT like that part of the deal. OTOH, they went for ceiling, not floor, and I LOVE that. 

Willi Castro to the Cubs — Grade: No idea
Return: RHP Ryan Gallagher, RHP Sam Armstrong
Neither of these guys does much for me, frankly. But I'm going to assume there is something here to like, or I don't get this one. I'd have preferred one guy with more upside, but whatever. I just don't have the energy to actually care about this one.....

Griffin Jax to the Rays — Grade: 60
Return: RHP Taj Bradley
Another trade that makes a lot of sense (on its own, I'm judging these deals on their own, as a group I don't like them). A RP for a potential SP. But, man, Bradley has struggled some.......but, ya, a RP for a potential SP, I can see how this makes sense. I think 60 might be generous, but I'm in a good mood after listening to KPOP Demon Hunters. 

Louis Varland & Ty France to the Blue Jays — Grade: 35
Return: LHP Kendry Rojas, OF Alan Roden
I think Roden and Rojas have pretty good odds of being valuable to the Twins, so that's a plus. OTOH, Varland looks like a closer, with, what, five years of control? Plus, and this does matter to a lot of MN people, he's from MN. I actually think Roden replaces Larnach to start next year full time. I think he can hit and catch the ball. I think Rojas could be good, in some role. I just don't get trading a guy with this much control, unless you are insanely in love with what you got back, and I'm more in like. 

4 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

“The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.”  Maybe, but it was a huge difference. 

You'd have to add a number 4 (though this year 5) starter (with 4 years of control) to Duran to get the deal. 

4 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

While I am in general disappointed by the overall returns the Twins got in all the trades, I do see somewhat of a vision.

The reality of acquiring a bunch of pitchers, is the Twins probably re-tooled their bullpen for 2026 and beyond in the process of dismantling their good one from this season.

Look at the history:

Brock Stewart: Washed out as a starter in LA due to injuries. Became a real weapon in the bullpen with MN, but still dealt with injuries.

Louie Varland: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints.

Jhoan Duran: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints.

Griffin Jax: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints.

Cole Sands: Failed starter. Has improved in short stints.

The point of all these examples (and there are even more of them), is it is actually far more common for bullpen arms to come from pitchers who were good enough to get a chance at starting coming up and moving onto the lesser role once in the majors or close, then it is for a pure relief prospect doing so by coming up through the system.

So theoretically for the future, the Twins have a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Zebby, Festa, and Abel/SWR/Bradley in reserve. Prielipp.

From everyone internally at the moment, the bullpen might be: Abel/SWR/Bradley, Funderburk, Ohl, Raya, Sands, Morris, Adams, [fill-in-the-blank]. Prielipp.

Prielipp, Rojas, Horn, Gallagher, Bradley, Lewis, MacLeod I could all see as ending up in the same type of transition as well.

Just something to think about.

Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters).

9 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Sears was demoted to AAA by the Padres, looks like a little overpay depending on how long he is the minors

Interesting! He was basically a number 4 the two years before....but really struggled this year. 

10 minutes ago, old nurse said:

 

In 2018 Tom Froeming wrote this:

Twins give: Eduardo Escobar

Twins get: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel

Tom’s grade: B

 

Twins give: Ryan Pressly

Twins get: RHP Jorge Alcala, OF Gilberto Celestino

Tom’s grade: A

 

Twins give: Lance Lynn

Twins get: Tyler Austin, Luis Rijo

Tom’s grade: A

 

Twins give: Brian Dozier

Twins get: 2B Logan Forsythe, OF/1B Luke Raley, LHP Devin Smeltzer

Tom’s grade: D

 

Twins give: Zach Duke

Twins get: RHP Chase De Jong, 1B/3B Ryan Costello

Tom’s grade: C

 

Sorry the comments section just wouldn’t let me put in the link.   One out of 5 grades was accurate. 

You and I have been through this before. 

Myself... I'll grade the trades later. When the actual term papers are finished. That's when you get the red marker out and put down a C- on it. 

This patient assessment approach has improved my March Madness bracket accuracy to perfection. I never get a game wrong when I fill out my brackets. It's easy to do... just stay patient and wait until the game is over before declaring a winner. It's nice because I don't have to get into silly arguments with anyone who thinks passionately that Louisville is going to wipe the floor with Wyoming.   

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters).

It doesn't have to take 2-3 years to build. Turn all the faucets on. See what produces water.

Replace the faucet that isn't producing water. 

IMO, you can't just look at each of these deals individually and score them in any meaningful way. We're talking a huge chunk of the roster turned over in 48 hours. As a result, all of these moves are intertwined. 

1] DURAN: It's a really solid B+ return. But a TOP, proven closer with 2 more years of control should have included a 3rd player, or someone closer to helping the Twins offensively than Tait. We got a good return, but we needed an A on this, not a B+. Still good value though. 

2] BADER: Solid value on a rental. A LH version of Gonzalez and a 16yo DSL flier that they are at least familiar with. But a B+ for me when I look at the "fit" or another LH OF.

3]  CORREA: It's a D up front as it looks really bad, and brought nothing back in return. Now, Lee's bat takes a step forward, Culpepper is up and ready by July 2026 if not sooner. Snd the new owners actually invest the $20M savings, this can be a B+ move. 

4] PADDACK: They got a switch hitting, strong arm, supposedly good young backstop but he's only 19yo. Not bad! Did including Dobnak in the deal really lower the return value though? I'll agree with the B-. Disappointing to think we might have gotten a high A or AA player if we just ate the rest of Dobber's deal. Still, a talented young catching flier was a good return. 

5] CASTRO: By all reports there were several teams interested. Gallagher sounds like a solid return. Not sure Armstrong as the 2nd piece was good enough. Wasn't there a 1B or other bat at AA or high A that might have been a better need fit? Still, the C+ sounds very fair. I might bump it up to a B once I see more of Gallagher and Armstrong.

6] COULOMBE: I really thought he had more value than a 2024 draftee coming off surgery. Supposedly the Twins really like the Horn kid. I think INCOMPLETE might be a more accurate grade here. I have a soft spot for LH arms, but Horn is such an unknown right now I'm a little disappointed here.

7] JAX: They weren't FORCED to trade Jax simply because he asked. He'd be the closer in 2026. He's still got great stuff and high K numbers and is only 30yo. Bradley wasn't a bad return. But he's been sliding. However, he's also pretty young. Is he a mid rotation starter or a back of the pen arm? I'm going with a C grade even though Bradley's got potential. A 1 for 1 and the loss of Jax AFTER moving Duran keeps my grade down. 

8] STEWART: An absolute F grade. ANOTHER LH OF? And one that needs to be "fixed" at 28yo? Stewart is good, cheap, and controlled. I'd take whatever he's got left and cross my fingers for 40-50 IP all day over a player the Dodgers were probably close to DFA.

9] VARLAND: They'd already moved 4 of their top 5 pen arms and decided it was smart to just clean house? Why? Varland is a setup guy in 2026 and possibly/probably the closer after everyone else is gone. And while Roden shouldn't be judged on a SSS at the ML level, he wasn't a power plant in MILB. And he's ANOTHER LH OF. A little more power, and a possible answer at 1B, or even a legitimate backup in CF, I like him better. They'd better be right about Rojas or my C grade becomes a D, and possibly an F if Roden doesn't take off. 

Getting a bunch of talented arms is never a bad thing. But if you didn't completely blow up the bullpen, would you need so many arms added to what you already have? And where are the bats? The odds of Outman contributing anything are pretty remote. The 2 catchers are a good 2-3 years away. Roden is battling Wallner, Larnach, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and now possible 2027 option in Mendez.

I only really hate 1 move. I'm a little disappointed in a couple more. But it's the OVERVIEW I don't get. Why all 5 pen arms and not keep Jax and Varland. But even if they just felt they had to move Jax, why move Varland?

It almost felt like everyone was working the phones separately and nobody knew what the plan was until the timer hit zero. Again, I just can't separate each trade individually. They all affect one another as a collective. And that lowers a lot of my grades a good notch in most areas. I don't see a plan, or returns that fit together as a whole.