Dodgers 4, Twins 2: Resurgent Ober and Buxton's Heroics Not Enough Against Dodgers

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (68 Pitches, 43 Strikes, 63.2%)
Home Runs: Manuel Margot (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jay Jackson (-.286), Carlos Correa (-.130), Ryan Jeffers (-.093)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

After a weekend of ruminating about strikeout totals and Bailey Ober tipping his pitches, the Twins had to shake off any lingering doubts about themselves, because the most star-powered roster in baseball rolled into town. The LA Dodgers boast a lineup of three MVPs and future Hall of Famers at the top; perhaps the best all-around catcher in baseball, in Will Smith; the power of Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernández; and some young star potential in James Outman and Gavin Lux, for good measure. Taylor Trammell also plays for them.

The Twins turned to Ober, who had just given up eight earned runs to the Royals. They featured a lineup averaging three runs per game in the early going. They started José Miranda at third base, and no one is quite sure why, since Twins officials have publicly labeled Miranda as a first baseman and DH. He didn't look bad, though, taking some good at-bats while not being a factor defensively.

The day started disturbingly, as Mookie Betts took a pitch in the zone that was called ball four (that evened out with Betts on the short end of several calls later on). Shohei Ohtani then scorched a double over Byron Buxton's head, and Freddie Freeman hit a sacrifice fly to one of the deepest parts of the park, on which Buxton made an incredible play (more to come on that). Surprisingly, Ober settled down from there, retiring the next two hitters fairly easily, showing a nice changeup and cutter, with his fastball showing a bit of arm-side run. In fact, he retired the next nine hitters following Ohtani's double, with very little hard contact.

James Paxton was on the mound for the Dodgers, and looked okay at first. Twins fans might remember the "Big Maple" from his outing in Game One of the 2019 ALDS, in which he briefly gave the Twins hope with a fairly shaky start. Today, he gave up a single to Manuel Margot, who was curiously put in the leadoff spot, and then had Carlos Correa and Ryan Jeffers just miss hittable fastballs before striking out Buxton on an elevated heater.

He, too, cruised through the second inning, but he ran into some trouble at a surprising point in the Twins lineup. He walked Austin Martin and then served up a no-doubt home run to Margot, perhaps revitalized by facing the team that gave up on him in favor of Enrique Hernández just a few weeks ago. It was a hanging slider from Paxton that came across as a cutter via Statcast. Regardless, he didn't throw the pitch again.

Ober danced around some trouble in the fourth, including two singles and a walk, but looked in control regardless. He used his new cutter much more often than his slider and got a lot of weak contact with it, including striking out Betts with it to end his outing. It's worth noting that Ober had one of his best starts against the Dodgers in LA last year, going six innings and not allowing a run until Michael A. Taylor dropped a fly ball in Ober's final inning.

The Twins started letting Paxton off the hook following Margot's home run, making outs early in counts that resulted in some quick innings. Ober also had an efficient outing, but was removed after the fifth at 68 pitches. The reasoning was that lefties Ohtani and Freeman were due up, but my counterpoint is that it doesn't really matter who you throw against those two, as Steven Okert isn't making them adjust their approach or anything.

Three soft hits later and the game was tied. It stayed that way for a while, thanks to this catch.

The Twins were not able to add on, however, and that is not a sustainable strategy against the Dodgers. Jay Jackson came in to pitch the seventh, and hung two sliders for homers, one to Outman for the lead and then Ohtani for the insurance.

The Good:
Ober was at his best, locating his pitches and avoiding barrels with his three and a half pitch mix.

Buxton made a classic Buxton grab up against the wall in right center in the first. He then made a heady play tagging up to second base in the fourth by reading left fielder Trammell's throw. perfectly It seemed like a normal play but I don't think I've seen it in my 25 years watching baseball.

Then he made the aforementioned, even better play as Okert struggled in the sixth.

Margot was among the most worried-about of all Twins hitters going into the game. Was he cooked? Maybe not; he is now one of the Twins leaders in OPS.

The Bad:
Twins Twitter will surely love the decision to pull Ober for Okert to start the sixth. I don't hate the move if it's Caleb Thielbar coming in, but I just don't think a guy we traded out-of-options Nick Gordon for is the matchup you want against Ohtani and Freeman.

The righty bats looked a little better, but overall didn't do much against Paxton. The last 18 Twins were retired.

The Twins bullpen, which had been the team's saving grace thus far, finally showed some cracks, with Okert and Jackson put into much higher-leverage roles than anyone would have anticipated a month ago.

What’s Next: Louie Varland (0-1, 6.75 ERA) goes against the Dodger's third biggest off-season pickup, Tyler Glasnow (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Glasnow is prone to a bad start here or there, but his stuff is electric and could pose a huge problem as the Twins try to get off the mat in the early going.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: