Defensive Progress Key to Solving Twins Run Prevention Problems

I never hear anything about Zander Wiel. Looks like he's ready to take over at first. How's his defense? I think we should move on from Cron.

A few other things for 2020:

Keep Sano at third. Let's look him there another season, at least.

Arraez takes over for Schoop at 2B and becomes lead off hitter.

Infeild: Sano, Polanco, Arraez, Wiel.

Trade Rosario for a minor league pitcher with some upside. Be nice to get a major league arm for Eddie, but, lol, yea right, get real.

We need an ace in the #1 spot. Berrios isn't that guy but would benefit greatly I believe from a big splash free agent ace in front of him to take the pressure off. That's how you add to your rotation- at the top. Then you improve every spot in the rotation. I think Berrios thrives in the #2 spot. Try to woo Gerrit Cole, or Strasburg if he opts out.

QO Odorizzi, and possibly leverage a multi-year deal out of it.

Give Garver reps a first. See if he works out there to get his bat in the lineup when he's not catching.

I like we picked up the option year on Cruz, but I don't care if he's just as good next year, that's the last year I'd pay him to be my DH. He adds no positional value, he'll be 41 after, and we'll have more than enough bats to fill that spot in 2021, all with more positional value. I'm dreaming of a DH platoon with Sano and Garver especially, but also Polanco, Kepler and even Buxton and Arraez for a day off in the field. In the future, Kiriloff, Rooker. That helps get more at bats for all those guys as well as the guys who fill their positions like Wade, Gonzalez. Adrianza and Castro if we resign them. Gordon?

Wade better than Cave? In plate discipline, by way far.

What about Nick Gordon? Could he provide better defense than Arraez? Could either one make the other tradeable? Which one? Or do they together make Adrianza expendable? I like Adrianza backing up middle infield but not outfield or 1B. Twins like him and respect him, making him temporary manager for the last regular season game. But thats money that could go toward the rotation.

Infield defense focuses first and foremost on shortstop. When Polanco was signed originally, the concern was whether or not he would ever hit. Seemed his defense was his strength. Now I don’t think he will ever be even an average MLB shortstop defensively. I would like to see Polanco and Arraez filling 3rd and 2nd (not sure which would be better at 3rd) with Sano moving to first. SS remains an unknown. Lewis??? Adrianza??? Gordon (doubtful defensively)??? Some FA or trade??

Biggest question of the offseason.

Defense is not the key to solving run prevention problems. That would be pitching. The defense can help...it's secondary. The problem is primarily on the infield, and it starts at short-stop. It's likely to get worse before it gets better, as you will continue to play your best offensive players...and Arraez is a down-grade from Schoop. The guys that are there will simply need to play better. You're not going to put a glove that OPS's .700 at short, third, or second...when you have guys there that OPS .850-.900+

And Crom was not a problem defensively. Although, if the Twins see someone available that they think can hit more at first than Crom...or someone that would be a legitimate corner bat at third...I could see them either going a different direction at first, or moving Sano.

There is a potential defensive alignment that could be a plus. Marwin is much better at 3B than he is at any other position, which is the key to improving in the infield.

3B Marwin Gonzalez

SS Jorge Polanco (live with the avg defense for the plus bat until Royce is available)

2B Adrianza or Nick Gordon

1B Sano

LF Arraez - if he's having this much trouble at 2B at age 22 it could get ugly quickly

CF Buxton

RF Kepler

That would be a legitimate plus outfield and an average infield. Another defensive upgrade would come from replacing Castro as the backup catcher with a plus defender. Castro's glove slipped last season.

Watching the Astros and the Yankees the defensive plays really standout in comparison to the Twins.  And I hope people aren't thinking that Buxton can make up for our deficiency.  The glove does matter.  

Buston won't make up for the whole defensive deficiency but he can make up for the outfield deficiency.   Much like getting one good pitcher aids in slotting every other pitcher getting one great center fielder has a trickle down effect as well.   Now Kepler becomes a good right fielder instead of a mediocre center fielder and plugging in a mediocre right fielder.    I truly believe the infield guys can get better with instruction, hard work and pride.    If we really think Adrianza has become a good hitter do we believe he can be average or better defensively at shortstop?    I think I would like to see Polanco upgrade 3rd base, Adrianza upgrade shortstop and Arraez get better at 2nd.    Rocket arm helps at 3rd but I would rather have agility and a quick release..

Chuck Knoblauch had 20 errors as a rookie. He got better and eventually won a gold glove. I wouldn’t pile on Arraez. Sano and Polanco are both bad defensively and have shown little to no improvement over their time at the MLB level. But they are both elite hitters for their positions. So, it’s a balance.

Problem with improving defense is that there won't be much turnover in the lineup... I think Arraez is a step down from Schoop there, but he's young enough that he can improve. I'm hoping Sano can avoid regressing, but he's never going to be a world burner defensively anywhere... Polanco is probably going to be what you have now. Not expecting much for improvement there. 

 

I suppose Cron could be replaced with someone better with the bat/glove... not sure that's going to make a huge difference. This is an area that the front office may have to address in terms of internal development...

This pretty much says it all. Buxtons return will help a lot, but who knows how long he’s healthy...A Rosario trade is the only way they would bring in another starting caliber outfielder, but I don’t know any outfielder you’d get back would be much of an upgrade defensively, as the return centerpiece is probably pitching.

The more the shift is used, the more important the fielding of the third baseman becomes. Actually the 3B has almost become another SS.

whatever happened to moving the 3rd basemen behind 2nd and leaving the shortstop on the left?

2019 Twins:

 

ERA 4.18, FIP 4.03, xFIP 4.27, SIERA 4.22

 

These are all pretty much significantly the same number, which I take to mean that pitching and not defense is the major driver as far as runs allowed went...

Well, major driver of course but if the pitching is top 10 and the defense is bottom 10 I think we can make two assumptions.   First is the bottom third defense is the reason the Twins moved to middle of the pack in run prevention and 2nd that If we had a top 10 defense we would also have a top 10 for run prevention.  Run prevention being the major goal.   The staff  gives up 4.18 runs so of course that is the major driver but if the defense turns that 4.18 into 4.65 that if pretty significant.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 wins a year.   Every team has unearned runs but the difference between the Twins and the good defense is about 4 games a year give or take a few.   For example, bad defense vs good defense was probably worth about 6 runs against the Yankees.    Good chance we would have lost those games anyway so you could make the case that there was no impact on the outcome.  However,  if the offense and pitching were better it would be conceivable that bad defense vs good could have cost us all three games.    Thats without even considering what good defense vs bad means to the pitcher.