Dead Of Winter

"Their hesitance to part with Dozier, along with their evident lack of interest in making Santana available, only underscores this."

Lets hope they change at least one of those two stances this offseason...

I listened to Dodger talk on 570am in Los Angeles this evening, the host and Dodger insider David Vassegh said Dodgers have what they feel is a very reasonable baseball offer on table for Dozier, but waiting on Twins, as the new Twins regime is hesitant to part with the popular, productive Dozier and this be their first big move. 

I don't buy the premise that it's understandable they haven't done anything because they are getting settled. You can study the Dozier situation for an hour and know he has to go. Hopefully they are just holding out for a better deal.

"In dealing away Sale, the White Sox have apparently committed to a blow-up rebuild, with reports of Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu now being on the block. Some will look at this as the path the Twins should have taken, and maybe still should take."

The Twins can't take that path.  The Twins don't have anyone who can hold a candle to Chris Sale or those other guys. 

I listened to Dodger talk on 570am in Los Angeles this evening, the host and Dodger insider David Vassegh said Dodgers have what they feel is a very reasonable baseball offer on table for Dozier, but waiting on Twins, as the new Twins regime is hesitant to part with the popular, productive Dozier and this be their first big move. 

What the Dodgers feel is reasonable is probably a package headlined by Deleon, who be all accounts is a probably #3 starter.  Twins need a higher upside package or another player better that Deleon to make this deal.  Twins have a number of type 3 starters about 1 - 2 years away, why should we give away our best player for parts.

why should we give away our best player for parts.

Several reasons.

1)  Dozier's power did not help the team at all last year.

2)  Dozier is about to hit his decline years.

3)  His replacement is ready.

4)  The Twins have other holes that need to be plugged. 

5)  Though he's the team's "best player" he is by no means a hall of fame candidate.  Half of the White Sox roster is as good as Dozier is, and the White Sox did not even make the playoffs. 

Several reasons.

 

1)  Dozier's power did not help the team at all last year.

2)  Dozier is about to hit his decline years.

3)  His replacement is ready.

4)  The Twins have other holes that need to be plugged. 

5)  Though he's the team's "best player" he is by no means a hall of fame candidate.  Half of the White Sox roster is as good as Dozier is, and the White Sox did not even make the playoffs. 

You also have to sell tickets for next year and none of those offered parts are likely to help do that.  I would rather than package Dozier and another Twins starter or mid level prospect and increase the return to at least a #2 upside prospect starter.

You also have to sell tickets for next year and none of those offered parts are likely to help do that.  I would rather than package Dozier and another Twins starter or mid level prospect and increase the return to at least a #2 upside prospect starter.

The best plan for improving attendance is to try to lose less than 90 games.  Dozier has been on a lot of teams that have not accomplished that feat. 

On a different roster, Dozier is incredibly valuable.  But he can't carry this team on his own. 

It is still hard to sell tickets(corporate and business use type) if you are projecting to lose more than 100 games and be non competitive.  That could well be the projection if you trade Dozier for high upside A players or middle of the road AAA players(#3 starters).

It's not a 1 year plan.....that's still the projection even with Dozier, to lose a lot. Isn't it?

I believe the plan is to improve this year and treat last year as the perfect storm.  Your line seems to be keep trading players and hope you get a class that comes together at one time.  That is a small market strategy, Twins are a mid market team.

Wouldn't you say most Twins fans are casual fans because they haven't been competitive for a long time? 

Having lived outside of MN for a number of years and then moving back, and a brother that lives in Boston, I'd say most Minnesota sports fans are generally casual and very bandwaggon-y compared to fans even across the border in WI or in Chicago. Furthermore, they don't seem to understand what it takes to make championship winning teams, are impatient, yet don't like change- which is a very difficult environment for any front office to try to navigate. 

Uh, no, that's not my plan, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. 

 

Dozier is signed for 2 more years....they aren't going to be good next year, and probably not the year after (if they don't trade Dozier and/or ESan).....

 

I've never once, until now, been accused of suggesting the Twins act like a small market team. I'm sure birdwatcher and others are quite amused by this suggestion. 

 

Trading Dozier isn't about building one class, the first class of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios is already "here". It's about increasing the odds of them having more good players when it matters.

 

YMMV, of course. But I don't personally see a legit path to success w/o trading Dozier for 1-3 legit prospects. In 2 years, Mauer's deal is off the books. They'll have plenty of money to re-sign anyone that turns out great, or to add in FA at that point.

I agree on trading Dozier and have for a long time, if the return is good.  Not for parts including a #3 starter as a headliner.  Do not mind trading Dozier for players further away, but you had better be sure there is a winner or two in that package.  Otherwise all you have is churn.  I am looking for success over the long term and operating from a midmarket perspective.  You cannot keep trading 5 WAR players for A level prospects and succeed in the long run.  Sometimes that means sitting on your hands until you get a good deal. 

Some of your points are valid, though I do not see the Twins forcing Mauer to leave or retire, he may choose that course himself based on the money he if offered to play here. 

I do agree that a big part of the Twins problem is the lack of international spending and blowing by the budget over the last couple of years.  I just feel trading Dozier for the sake of trading him is the wrong course.

I believe the plan is to improve this year and treat last year as the perfect storm.  Your line seems to be keep trading players and hope you get a class that comes together at one time.  That is a small market strategy, Twins are a mid market team.

I believe you are making this as a statement of fact. 

This might be true, but I believe the propenderance of statements made that year to year comparisons aren't really the priority right now, and building a team with a long term plan is. That does not necessarily represent any immediate improvement in the record, just better decision making with player development and rebuilding the system in mind.

? on Mauer? He's gone in 2 years, I don't know what you are typing there at all.

 

"keep trading 5 WAR players"? When have they done that? Santana or Knoblauch? One of those actually worked.....

 

Sigh. Who here has said trade him for the sake of trading him? Other than those arguing against trading him?

 

Yes, the number 1 issue is lack of talent. That's driven by a lot of things, I can't say for sure if it is scouting, drafting, development, willingness to go all in on spending, or what.....but they need more talent.

Mike you are making the point of trading Dozier without specifying how good a return you want.  I feel we need a good return or hang onto Dozier for the time being.  I do not think a headliner of a #3 starter is good enough return for a player who has averaged just under 5 WAR for the last 3 years.  I do think if the Twins wait or check with more clubs, they will find a better return.  They just need to be more creative and I do think this new front office is aware of this. 

The point on Mauer was that it is not sure he is gone in 2 years, if he is still here it will be at a much lower salary, but you do not force the face of the team out the door(think Killebrew). 

Neither of us knows how good the young players are, so to say lack of talent is incorrect, though lack of major league talent may be correct at this time. I have been the advocate of better pitching for a few years now and a shutdown bullpen is a cureall for bad starting pitching.  That alone could result in the Twins being competitive next year.  That is why I would give up the second round draft pick and sign Jansen and by the end of next year the Twins could very well have the shutdown bullpen.  That along would make us competitive, and work on the starting pitching over the next 2 years. 

We will have to see if the current players in the field can take it to the next level.  That is for evaluation next year.

Most Twins fans are casual fans, and I guarantee those fans would view a Dozier trade negatively.

I agree they need to win to turn around the attendance decline, but I also believe a Dozier trade would negatively impact interest in the Twins, at least for 2017.

I don't understand the relevance of this post but okay....i guess. 

As a Twins fan I want them to win.  I don't care that Dozier is a nice guy or the face of the team.  I want wins.

 

Short of dealing Dozier, i don't know how we right this ship for quite awhile.

Just would be very careful dealing with the Dodgers, Look how the last two trades with Friedman worked out.  Just think we are being offered disposable parts to help the Dodgers out.