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The Minnesota Twins are a bad team right now. Since the All-Star break, they've been Major League Baseball's worst team. Are they going to be bad in 2026? Sure seems likely. But it's not necessarily set in stone. We've seen unexpected upstart competitive clubs spring forth from the most unlikely of places, with the Twins of 2015 serving as an apt example.
Did that team make the playoffs? No, but they came pretty close, and gave us an entertaining product for the first time in many years, coming off four consecutive 90-plus loss seasons.
There were a few key characteristics of that team that are worth noting as we think about the outlook for the 2026 Twins. One, of course, was the arrival of a new skipper in Paul Molitor. A managerial change could well be in play next year (and should be), but I'm not too interested in speculating about that right now. Instead, I wanted to take a look at some player-focused outcomes that could turn the tides.
The purpose of this piece is twofold: to illustrate both how challenging it would be for the Twins to contend next year, because they would need not one but several of these things to happen, but also how inherently plausible it is, because none of these developments is remotely out of the question. (Well, maybe the last one.)
Brooks Lee finds a sustainable power stroke.
I've become a skeptic of Lee and his ceiling. I've watched his skillset flounder at the big-league level and it has drastically reduced my confidence in what he can become. He can't run, that's not going to change. He doesn't read the strike zone, that's not likely to change. And he hasn't been able to hit for much power, at least not consistently. That last thing could change.
We've seen bursts from Brooks Lee. He was mashing the ball all over the field during a month of June, when he batted .348 with four homers and a .908 OPS. We saw another flurry in mid-August, when Lee popped two homers, three doubles and a triple in a six-game span. Most recently he flexed against the Yankees with a homer and double in Monday's 7-0 win.
The problem is that outside of these short and fleeting glimpses of slugging ability, Lee has been a gaping void at the plate, rattling off feeble and fruitless at-bats. The end result is a .379 SLG that is especially underwhelming when paired with a sub-.300 OBP. Among the 162 players with 450+ plate appearances, his OPS ranks 148th.
He's also still only 24. Lee's ability to not only make contact with extreme consistency, but with the good part of the bat — his squared-up rate is in the 74th percentile — bodes well if he can add a little muscle and swing velocity during the offseason. Lifting his average up and turning himself from a 15-20 homer guy to a 30-homer guy (and/or adding a lot more doubles) might be Lee's only path to becoming a standout regular, but it'd be a potential game-changer.
Connor Prielipp is the real deal.
Looking to the minor-league system, the vaunted high-level pitching depth has mostly been excavated, and unspectacular returns thus far. We've seen David Festa and Zebby Matthews falter and battle injuries. We've seen Marco Raya, Charlee Soto and others sidetracked in the minors. The Twins have yet to receive the immediate, electrifying jolt of a young pitcher who comes up and immediately outclasses the competition.
Prielipp has that kind of potential. Following a long run of injuries, he has finally enjoyed a healthy season and it led him all the way to Triple-A, where he has struck out 30% of batters faced in 15 innings. It wasn't all pretty — he's also issued 11 walks and posted a 5.40 ERA — but this was just a tremendously encouraging year all-around, setting up Prielipp to make an impact early next year, if not out of the gates.
In watching Prielipp pitch, I've always gotten a bit of a Francisco Liriano vibe: well built 6-foot-2 lefty with a compact delivery, hard fastball and wipeout slider. I'm not saying he can make a Liriano-level impact as a rookie, but whether as a starter or reliever, who could give the Twins' pitching staff a massive boost.
The Twins got it right on at least a couple of these deadline trades.
Early returns haven't been great. But the early returns aren't what matter. These trades were about the future, and that starts in 2026. There are a number of players acquired in the deadline purge who have an ability to make a positive impact next year: Alan Roden, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, James Outman. It would require, in most cases, turning around a negative trendline. It would also mean the Twins front office was right.
Hard to have great faith in either of those things proving true at this moment, but in each case the capability is there. Roden has shredded Triple-A. Abel is a borderline top-100 prospect. Bradley touched 99 MPH in his latest start. Outman certainly has pop, and isn't THAT far removed from a breakthrough rookie season.
It would help if any of these guys looked particularly close to being effective regulars, but a new season will bring a fresh start, and you never know when a talented player will figure it out and turn the corner.
Prospects break through in a hurry.
Looking back at that 2015 team, rookie impact was the banner headline. Yes, there was a great deal of romanticizing about the vibe shift with a managerial switch and the return of a 39-year-old Torii Hunter. But it was the emergence of Miguel Sanó and Eddie Rosario, who finished third and sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year respectively, that ignited this offense.
Sanó arrived in early July and mashed for half a season, posting a .916 OPS with 18 home runs and 52 RBIs in 80 games. Rosario had arrived two months earlier, homering in his first at-bat on the way to a stat-sheet-stuffing debut: 18 doubles, 15 triples, 13 homers, 11 steals in 122 games.
Heading into next year, the Twins will have prospects in play who are equipped to contribute at this level: namely, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. It's not impossible that one or both could break camp with the big-league club, but if not they'll be only a step away at Triple-A. These are premier skillsets with superstar upside.
That doesn't mean it will happen right away, as Byron Buxton demonstrated in that same 2015 season, but the potential is there for historic rookie campaigns as Jenkins and Rodriguez reach the majors. And Luke Keaschall, whose own rookie year has been memorable if cut short, will already be in the mix.
Royce Lewis remembers who he is.
This feels like such an essential X-factor. The dominant player we saw in Lewis' first two seasons has been amiss ever since, spare the occasional nostalgic glimpse. It never came together for him this year, but importantly, Lewis appears to be as healthy as he's ever been in the big leagues. He's been in the lineup almost every day since returning from the injured list in July, while playing strong defense at third and suddenly running like crazy on the bases.
Hitting is the missing piece. Lewis still looks out of sorts at the plate. But he's on track to finish the season in good shape physically, and he's got an offseason ahead to work on his swing. The last year has been rough, but let's not forget who Lewis is: a former No. 1 overall draft pick, top prospect, and emergent superstar who lifted the Twins out of a postseason curse. The 2026 season will be pivotal for the 26-year-old, who knows that as well as anyone.
Pablo and Joe stay, and starting pitching depth delivers as promised.
If there's one clear strength you can find when forecasting the Twins' 2026 roster (and I'd argue there is only one), it's starting pitching. This was a major focal point at the trade deadline, with Bradley, Abel, Kendry Rojas and a few lesser but potentially near-ready arms entering the mix. You put those names alongside Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Prielipp, Andrew Morris and others, behind an established frontline trio of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober ... Yeah, easy to see the makings of an incredibly deep and talented starter pool here.
But then, we often find ourselves saying this. The strength of Minnesota's pitching depth has mostly been more theoretical than practical. Yeah, Matthews and Festa were nice-looking prospects, but neither has been able to sustain health or effectiveness in the majors. Bradley, Abel and Rojas were interesting additions, but all three have made weak first impressions in the new organization. López, Ryan and Ober look like a playoff rotation nucleus at times, but they haven't collectively been able to get through a season without injuries or drop-offs.
Ober is a big question mark right now. López and Ryan are at great risk of being shipped out over the winter, which would signal a lack of contention hope and would essentially render this entire conversation moot. The main reason I find this course of action likely is because of how very unlikely the final scenario is to reach fruition.
Somehow, someway, a competent bullpen takes shape.
It's not impossible. Good bullpens have materialized out of nowhere at times in the past. But this is the biggest stretch on this list, and at the same time, it's as essential as anything. Even if the starting pitching is good and the offense is improved, I can't envision the Twins being a legitimate competitive ballclub without at least a decent bullpen. Right now they are a long way from that.
Heading into next season, you've currently got Cole Sands and that's it. The path to a competent relief corps would like something like this: Sands bounces back to 2024 form. Front office strikes on a couple free agent arms and maybe a trade. Most importantly, a few internal starter-to-relief transitions immediately take hold, the way Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax did way back when. Maybe the Twins decide: Taj Bradley hasn't had it click in 400 innings as a starter, let's get him unleashing triple-digit heat in relief. He's our closer. Maybe they decide, for durability reasons, it makes sense for Prielipp to go straight to the pen. Multi-inning weapon?
These are the kinds of things you can dream on. And at least we have that for now. I fear that the coming offseason is going to feature little in the way of additive, contention-focused moves, but if the Twins do select to at least give it a modest effort next year (e.g. hold López and Ryan, keep the payroll at least above $100M), contention is not out of the question. Even from the eyes of someone like me, who has become very jaded and pessimistic about the outlook for this franchise.
Show me you care, and maybe I'll change my tune. The opportunity begins as soon as this miserable campaign comes to a close.
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