5th Starter Candidate: Tommy Milone

Watching Milone pitch for the Twins, it is almost impossible for me to consider his performance with Oakland ("Over the next two-and-a-half seasons with the A’s, he went 31-22 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP"). The 6.5 mph difference between his fastball and change up, and his declining fastball average now down to 86.6 mph, I have to feel that Billy Beane knew what he was doing, and using Milone for calling him up for a spot start from Rochester in an emergency is his only up side for this team.

Of course he WAS pitching with a tumor in his neck, so...

Using his left arm to both pitch, and (likely) sign the arb agreement, is likely the reason that he will end up as the 5th starter. UGH! When people refer to the business side of baseball as the ugly side, they always refer to a player running out of time or talent. They never talk about a lesser talented player blocking someone just because the FO made a mistake. Trevor May had some interesting comments on the subject, about how contracts and salary levels enter into whom plays, when and where. As my 4 yr old granddaughter says, "it's not all about winning"

"Some wonder whether the huge foul territory at O.co Coliseum helped him out. Balls that are easily foul outs in Oakland might land 15 rows into the seating at Target Field giving the hitter another opportunity to get a hittable pitch."

                  Home   ERA/FIP           Road ERA/FIP

2012             2.74/3.97                        4.83/4.08

2013             3.44/4.96                        4.19/3.80

2014             4.14/4.44                        4.25/4.94

Overall much better numbers at home.  Crazy gaps between ERA and FIP at home in 2012 and 2013.  I think this theory has some merit

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season.  He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season.  He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

I guess I don't mind the Twns paying $2.8M for the depth.  His track record suggests to me he is much closer to an MLB pitcher than the typical AAAA options we have seen lately.   But the veteran status and $2.8M should not mean he gets the job over May or Meyer.

I think they could make him the guy though...as you point out "the first"

I disagree with the consensus here. I think Milone will have to be ultra-impressive this spring, to earn one of the two open slots. I think he gets outshined by May, Pelfrey, Nolasco, and Meyer and goes to Rochester, disgruntled. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see both Nolasco and Milone gone by the trade deadline or before. 

I disagree with the consensus here. I think Milone will have to be ultra-impressive this spring, to earn one of the two open slots. I think he gets outshined by May, Pelfrey, Nolasco, and Meyer and goes to Rochester, disgruntled. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see both Nolasco and Milone gone by the trade deadline or before. 

If Milone does go to Rochester it will be interesting to see if he demands a trade or compains as he did last year (complain, not sure if he demanded a trade).

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season. He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

You could say all the same things about Pelfrey, and we've heard before about what a great clubhouse guy Pelf is. I think the job is Pelf's to lose.

If Milone does go to Rochester it will be interesting to see if he demands a trade or compains as he did last year (complain, not sure if he demanded a trade).

The use of "complain" and "demand" are words that carry a connection to attitude and paint the picture of a guy sulking in the AAA clubhouse.

Ken Rosenthal has the original report that was repeated by many outlets

"Left-hander Tommy Milone has asked the club to trade him, major-league sources tell FOX Sports.

The A’s sent Milone to Triple-A on July 5 after acquiring right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs. It is not unusual for players to request trades after getting demoted. Milone, though, is more established than most – in 468 2/3 major-league innings, he has a 3.84 ERA."

That gives me a different picture. Ask is different from demand. No mention of complain.

I don't see attitude in that report. I would hope established players would not easily accept a demotion to AAA.

He has an option left. The Twins would be wise to use it if he doesn't earn the fifth starter job. There will be an opportunity if he returns to form in AAA and the Twins are better off keeping him stretched out. I would expect he would work his tail off to get back to the majors either with the Twins or through trade.

The use of "complain" and "demand" are words that carry a connection to attitude and paint the picture of a guy sulking in the AAA clubhouse.

 

Ken Rosenthal has the original report that was repeated by many outlets

 

"Left-hander Tommy Milone has asked the club to trade him, major-league sources tell FOX Sports.

The A’s sent Milone to Triple-A on July 5 after acquiring right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs. It is not unusual for players to request trades after getting demoted. Milone, though, is more established than most – in 468 2/3 major-league innings, he has a 3.84 ERA."

 

That gives me a different picture. Ask is different from demand. No mention of complain.

 

I don't see attitude in that report. I would hope established players would not easily accept a demotion to AAA.

 

He has an option left. The Twins would be wise to use it if he doesn't earn the fifth starter job. There will be an opportunity if he returns to form in AAA and the Twins are better off keeping him stretched out. I would expect he would work his tail off to get back to the majors either with the Twins or through trade.

The ERA has been suspect, relative to his home road splits, FIP, xFIP, k rates, etc.  I do think it speaks volumes that he was traded for a ham sandwich, then shelled this year.  Now he findshimself, talent-wise about 7-8 deep in a rotation that was not at all good last year.

Maybe they had negative connatations to it....just something to watch this year.

I may be wrong but I expect the question to sort itself out, all by itself, by Opening Day.  One pitcher isn't physically ready to go, one pitcher has a putrid spring, and boom, you have your 5-man rotation pretty much set with maybe only one semi-obvious decision remaining to make.  The mid-February discussion is interesting but I have trouble getting heavily invested in it.

I tend to think the same thing. A pitcher may come up with a sore arm before opening day. Trades often happen late in the spring. It'll all sort itself out.

I guess I would be plenty annoyed at being demoted as well.    After a solid couple seasons he has a slow start where his ERA was 5.86 after 5 starts.   He then has 9 quality starts over his next 11 games, is credited with 6-0 record as the A's won 9 of those 11 starts.   He brought his ERA down to 3.55 and was then demoted.    I cannot think of a similar case in the history of baseball.    His 3.55 ERA would have made him our #2 pitcher and was likely better than over half the starters in the majors and next thing he knows he is pitching in the minors.   Also makes me wonder if the A's knew something about his neck or arm condition at the time.    In general I don't care how hard he throws as long as he has stuff and control to make up for it.    So by itself the mph don't bother me but the decrease in mph does concern me.    We will see what his velocity is now if he actually is completely healthy.    Many pitchers have different splits on home and road.  Some do better some do worse.  I wouldn't write it all off to larger foul territory.    How many are caught because of the extra room and how many would he have gotten out anyway?   Maybe it is that much of a factor but then it should be nearly that much of a factor for all  pitchers.    Its not like it was bigger for just him.

I want to see Trevor May. Tantalizing stretches last year with lots of Ks. He just needs experience. Why are they messing around with retreads?

The A's were smart enough to consider what he would do for them going forward, not what he did in the past.  The A's had just traded for Samardzjia and Hammel and had no room for Gray, Kazmir, Chavez and Milone.  Milone had by far the lowest upside and was the least likely to succeed going forward.  Seems like an easy call to me. 

 

If the Twins are smart, they'll also put most of their deciding votes on the guys with higher upside.

yep, a very smart decision by Beane.

The A's were smart enough to consider what he would do for them going forward, not what he did in the past.  The A's had just traded for Samardzjia and Hammel and had no room for Gray, Kazmir, Chavez and Milone.  Milone had by far the lowest upside and was the least likely to succeed going forward.  Seems like an easy call to me. 

 

If the Twins are smart, they'll also put most of their deciding votes on the guys with higher upside.

I understand the decision but when the going rate for quality starts across the board is 50% its kind of harsh to be demoted right after doing it in 9 of your last 11 starts.     I know not everyone sees ERA as a great stat but Milone has a career ERA under 4 in 83 starts and was at 3.55 on the season when demoted.    In the last 4 years the Twins have only had one qualifying pitcher each year under 4 ERA and Hughes finished the year at 3.57 and was our ace.   They have had 10 qualifying pitchers over 5 and mostly well over 5 ERA in that time period.    Milone over 83 starts has an American League ERA under 4.00.    Are you saying his upside is now well over that?    I fully expect the Twins rotation to be better this year but can pretty well guarantee they won't have 5 guys with an ERA under 4.   If I am wrong I will be very happy to be wrong.     I also want May to be that 5th guy but think Milone deserves a little more respect for what he has done and it is only the decrease in mph that make me think his best days might be behind him.    If the surgery gets his fastball back up closer to 90 then there should be no reason to think that.