Time Isn't Up on Jorge Alcala

Nice article! I think he has a very bright future! I'll be rooting for him!

Interesting take!  Alcala to date has been a big disappointment.  As you mention, his proclivity for the HR ball has been his downfall.

But my real question is:  why hadn't the Twins' minor league pitching gurus realize early on that his two pitch repertoire would not translate to big league success?  Why is he just learning the importance of a changeup now?  Falvey brought in new pitching instructors to revamp previous administration's failures in developing pitchers, along with  the whiz kid from college ranks to be the pitching coach at the ML level.  Lots of stirring the pot, but the results to date are about the same as under Ryan.  While you can't entirely write off Alcala yet, his lack of progress is either a failure of minor league instruction  or a big swing and miss by the FO in acquiring less talent than they thought they were getting for an all star reliever who would certainly have helped this year.   Until this FO develops some real major league pitching talent, their regime for now has to be rated a colossal failure.  The clock is ticking.

I think he will be fine. Alcala is probably the only young pitcher on the staff this season where I’ve thought you need to trust what you see. If you forget the numbers for a second, which I rarely want to do, his stuff is just too good to ignore. Clean delivery, simple mechanics, easy to repeat. Command will be refined as he develops. The change up will come, he’s too talented. He’s going to figure it out and be a good reliever for years to come.

3 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Interesting take!  Alcala to date has been a big disappointment.  As you mention, his proclivity for the HR ball has been his downfall.

But my real question is:  why hadn't the Twins' minor league pitching gurus realize early on that his two pitch repertoire would not translate to big league success?  Why is he just learning the importance of a changeup now?  Falvey brought in new pitching instructors to revamp previous administration's failures in developing pitchers, along with  the whiz kid from college ranks to be the pitching coach at the ML level.  Lots of stirring the pot, but the results to date are about the same as under Ryan.  While you can't entirely write off Alcala yet, his lack of progress is either a failure of minor league instruction  or a big swing and miss by the FO in acquiring less talent than they thought they were getting for an all star reliever who would certainly have helped this year.   Until this FO develops some real major league pitching talent, their regime for now has to be rated a colossal failure.  The clock is ticking.

Alcala was not in the Twins minor league system that long.  1 full season, 1 month of another season. The trouble with Alcala is consistency. There is no trade for Alcala if he didn't have issues. Houston would have kept him if they were easily fixable. 

The All Star reliever was not an all star reliever with the Twins. Whatever he does in Houston has produced different results than whatever he did when with the Twins. Yes, a reliever with a 3.75 ERA would be a nice addition, which is what Pressley was as a Twin. That generally isn't an All Star. Austudillo has an ERA of 3.00. Not an All Star. Duffey, 3.58. Not an All Star. Taylor Rodgers, not an All Star. 

Yes the e was put in there to irritate you

The Twins had control of Pressly in 2018-2019. He could have made a difference to that 2019 team and the Twins will need Alcala or Celestino to have that one season where they are a difference maker on a contending team. 

Of course it isn’t time to give up on a pitcher with 59 career major league innings. I hope the Twins are not even looking at a FIP for a reliever to make this decision. FIP uses home run rate as part of its calculation. Pitcher home run rate needs a very large sample size before it stabilizes. It takes a reliever several years to get there. As a single season measure for a reliever it is pretty useless and the data cited above was for a partial season. xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize in a much smaller sample and give a better picture over a full season for a reliever. At this point Alcala’s xFIP is 4.23 on a team with a xFIP of 4.37. His xFIP is better than that of Duffey(4.50), Colome(4.46) or Robles(4.58). 

We didn’t trade a Robles or Colome to get Alcala. We traded Pressly who had an xFIP of 2.21 in the control season of 2019. At the time of the trade in 2018 he had an xFIP of 2.85 for the Twins. Little fixing was needed. We need that kind of performance from Alcala in his prime seasons.

Note: xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize at 70 and 170 batters faced respectively. The four Twin relievers above have a range of 131(Alcala) to 163(Robles) batters faced.

I know I am not a pitching savant but watching Alcala last night was interesting. It looked to me (from the camera angles we had) that there was hardly any movement on his fastball. Big league hitters will feast if that is the case.

Weirdo stats that may not make sense. Pressley had a high side and potential that Houston wanted. I don't think many here were happy with that deal at the time. Alcala had not yet had much experience. I don't know what everyone wants from him but I think he still has an upside that can help. He won't be a closer that saves 30 games a season but could obtain 20+ holds when needed. And if the changeup make his other 2 pitches better then look out.

I know that people were not pleased when Elvis left the building, errr, ummm, Pressly was traded, and the trade certainly paid quick dividends for the Astros.

I still have some hope, however, that Alcala can be a successful fixture in the Twins BP.  Only time will tell.

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins had control of Pressly in 2018-2019. He could have made a difference to that 2019 team and the Twins will need Alcala or Celestino to have that one season where they are a difference maker on a contending team. 

Of course it isn’t time to give up on a pitcher with 59 career major league innings. I hope the Twins are not even looking at a FIP for a reliever to make this decision. FIP uses home run rate as part of its calculation. Pitcher home run rate needs a very large sample size before it stabilizes. It takes a reliever several years to get there. As a single season measure for a reliever it is pretty useless and the data cited above was for a partial season. xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize in a much smaller sample and give a better picture over a full season for a reliever. At this point Alcala’s xFIP is 4.23 on a team with a xFIP of 4.37. His xFIP is better than that of Duffey(4.50), Colome(4.46) or Robles(4.58). 

You make a good point about Alcala having less than 60 innings at the MLB level.  I am not sur how it makes any sense to expect he is anything like Pressly at this point.  Pressly did not produced more than 1 WAR in a given year until his 6th season.

I am curious is to how you believe Pressly would have made a difference in 2019.  They won over 100 games and won the division comfortably.  They got blown out in the first round and the BP had little to do with the loss.  Frankly, I don't think it would have mattered if we would have had Mariano Riveria.  We still don't win a game in that series.  What am I missing?

This is silliness but if they had Pressly 2019…

Would they have had home field advantage with Pressly over the Blake Parker failure as a closer? Would it have made a difference?

The Twins tied things up in the top of the 5th of game 1 and Berrios is taken out. The best they have to bring in is Zach Littell who doesn’t get an out. If the bullpen is deeper can they bring in Duffey? Pressly? If Pressly is the closer do they use Rogers in that spot? If the Twins win in game 1 at home does that change the direction of the series?

There was also collateral damage…

The reality is that the Twins needed bullpen help when they traded Pressly For 2019. In order to fill the hole they signed Blake Parker and released him before the deadline and traded for Sam Dyson. Dyson was a disaster. He also cost them Davis, Berroa and Ting. Davis has an OPS of 1172 in AAA at 26 this year. Berroa is in San Jose with 57 K’s in 41 innings and a 3.24 ERA. Ting is struggling mightily with command but has 59 K’s in 40 innings.

For the trade to be a success it should be judged do we need to factor in the performance of the trio we lost trying to fill the hole created with the Pressly trade?

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

So ... Houston was able to instantly fix Pressly, but wouldn't be able to fix Alcala?

 

 

 

 

I thought I was pretty clear in the post. How could I have stated it any simpler for you?

I trust the eyes. Eventually they will tell you all we need to know. 

17 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

This is silliness but if they had Pressly 2019…

Would they have had home field advantage with Pressly over the Blake Parker failure as a closer? Would it have made a difference?

The Twins tied things up in the top of the 5th of game 1 and Berrios is taken out. The best they have to bring in is Zach Littell who doesn’t get an out. If the bullpen is deeper can they bring in Duffey? Pressly? If Pressly is the closer do they use Rogers in that spot? If the Twins win in game 1 at home does that change the direction of the series?

There was also collateral damage…

The reality is that the Twins needed bullpen help when they traded Pressly For 2019. In order to fill the hole they signed Blake Parker and released him before the deadline and traded for Sam Dyson. Dyson was a disaster. He also cost them Davis, Berroa and Ting. Davis has an OPS of 1172 in AAA at 26 this year. Berroa is in San Jose with 57 K’s in 41 innings and a 3.24 ERA. Ting is struggling mightily with command but has 59 K’s in 40 innings.

For the trade to be a success it should be judged do we need to factor in the performance of the trio we lost trying to fill the hole created with the Pressly trade?

 

Good lord that is one huge stretch.  I will grant you it's possible they could have gotten home field advantage but its a stretch.  They did not have the hitting or pitching to contend with the Yankees and would have gotten beat regardless of where they played, IMO.  Using these prospects is an even bigger stretch.  Do you honestly believe Davis is going to turn into a player of any impact?  He has been crushing AAA pitching since we had him.  He is 26 and gotten a crack at the MLB level in each of the last 3 years and failed in what is granted a SSS.  However, if he was a good prospect he would stick.  Teng has a 1.54 whip in high A at age 22.  Berroa is still in A ball.  In summary, I think you are really reaching.  The Twins got damaged goods in the Dyson trade.  I am not sure of the cause of that failure but it was the source of the problem, not trading Pressly and to say the Twins would have beat the Yankees that year with Pressly is silliness as you put it.  

My apologies to the thread for going down this path. I should have not taken the bait.

Quote

I am curious is to how you believe Pressly would have made a difference in 2019. 

I gave an honest response and of course it is a stretch. A mid to small market team isn’t ever going to have the best roster. A whole bunch of things need to go their way to be successful in the playoffs. The reality will be a stretch. You give yourself a much better shot with Pressly in the pen as opposed to cheap alternatives in Parker and Dyson. Pressly was already performing at a high level at the time of the trade. The margins for any team but particularly one without the assets of a large market.

Now in a desperate attempt to get this back on track which was the point of my original post. It is way too early to say Alcala’s time is up. The sample is too small (particularly FIP) to support conclusions about his future and there is enoug in his pitch mix to offer encouragement for the future.

On 7/10/2021 at 2:23 AM, old nurse said:

Alcala was not in the Twins minor league system that long.  1 full season, 1 month of another season. The trouble with Alcala is consistency. There is no trade for Alcala if he didn't have issues. Houston would have kept him if they were easily fixable. 

The All Star reliever was not an all star reliever with the Twins. Whatever he does in Houston has produced different results than whatever he did when with the Twins. Yes, a reliever with a 3.75 ERA would be a nice addition, which is what Pressley was as a Twin. That generally isn't an All Star. Austudillo has an ERA of 3.00. Not an All Star. Duffey, 3.58. Not an All Star. Taylor Rodgers, not an All Star. 

Yes the e was put in there to irritate you

It's a d ?