2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Mike Sixel]

Didn't think you were....If I could find the quote, I would post it.

[Dman]

you left out the word "potential", and one of the scouts interviewed/quoted on ESPN has said that. I read it elsewhere too, but I have no idea if those were circular references or not.

 

I know I saw All-Star defense on a few scouting reports and then various ideas about his bat. I tend to agree with you Mike. Most boards have him top 5 and really fairly solid as third or fourth best prospect. He has to be there for a reason and to be ranked that high he would need to project All-Star level. I don't know why I don't love the pick and I like Jackson better but the evaluators seem to love Gordon so who am I to argue with the experts.

[Mike Sixel]

There are probably a half dozen good choices they could make

[cmb0252]

Does Newcomb remind anyone else of Jon Lester? I haven't seen any scouts compare the two but surely someone else has mentioned it.

 

Good eye. Kiley McDaniel actually mentioned during the cape cod league multiple scouts compared Newcomb to Lester.

[cmb0252]

There are probably a half dozen good choices they could make

 

I think this is 100% correct. A lot of us have favorite players for the Twins at #5 because these guys up top are so close. We have had alot of great debates on players. This years draft thread has been a lot more active and I think this is why. Just like last year, in the end the Twins will end up with a stud prospect.

[cmb0252]

New KLaw draft up. Has the Twins taking Gordon. Here is what he had to say:

Analysis: They have been on Gordon all spring. Assuming the big three arms are gone, as I project here, I think they go with Gordon over their second choice, Aaron Nola. |

 

Link here:,

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=3&source=Keith-Law-Mock-Draft

[tobi0040]

I know I saw All-Star defense on a few scouting reports and then various ideas about his bat. I tend to agree with you Mike. Most boards have him top 5 and really fairly solid as third or fourth best prospect. He has to be there for a reason and to be ranked that high he would need to project All-Star level. I don't know why I don't love the pick and I like Jackson better but the evaluators seem to love Gordon so who am I to argue with the experts.

 

The five or so I have read said average and above average defense. None said all star or gold glove defense. I think he gets into the top 5 on boards primarily because he plays and most think should stick at SS. Look at the SS contracts over the last 2 years. Guys like Andrus getting $120M

[boney]

You guys follow this stuff a lot closer than I do, but if one of the goals is to add LHPs and they have a chance to add someone on the level of Rodon, they wouldn't pass on him would they?

 

oops, Looks like I hit the wrong button again. I was replying to InfraRen's Gammons quote from a GM.

[gunnarthor]

You guys follow this stuff a lot closer than I do, but if one of the goals is to add LHPs and they have a chance to add someone on the level of Rodon, they wouldn't pass on him would they?

 

oops, Looks like I hit the wrong button again. I was replying to InfraRen's Gammons quote from a GM.

 

Yeah, they won't pass on Rodon.

 

The ideal draft for the Twins would be something like this:

Astros save money by taking Gordon or Touki or someone

Marlins jump on Jackson

White Sox take Kolek

Cubs choose between Aiken/Rodon and Twins take the other.

[cmb0252]

Crawford wrote an article (not ESPN insider) about what to look for in the upcoming draft:

 

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/77857084/major-league-baseball-draft-2014-carlos-rodon-trea-turner-brady-aiken-houston-astros#!T7TTg

[Dman]

The five or so I have read said average and above average defense. None said all star or gold glove defense. I think he gets into the top 5 on boards primarily because he plays and most think should stick at SS. Look at the SS contracts over the last 2 years. Guys like Andrus getting $120M

 

I guess you win on this one as google has let me down and I cannot back up my claim. I swear I saw potential All-Star defense on at least one if not two but perhaps I was dreaming as I cannot find it. Or maybe I jumped to that conclusion as he was rated 65 or 70 for fielding, arm and speed which lead one to believe potential All-Star defense.

 

Most say he is the best infield prospect in this draft and the biggest question mark is his hit tool. He gets high marks for his make up and bloodlines for what ever that is worth. Seems high to be ranked 3,4, or 5th best prospect in this draft and it seems he is ranked higher than Jackson so maybe this is just a Shortstop value thing. I don't know. I just don't know why you would take a SS that high if he wasn't All-Star caliber. Barring one of the top three pitchers falling to the Twins they are going to pick Gordon. Maybe I am looking for excuses to like him.

[cmb0252]

BA's final top 500 board:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

[cmb0252]

Yeah, they won't pass on Rodon.

 

The ideal draft for the Twins would be something like this:

Astros save money by taking Gordon or Touki or someone

Marlins jump on Jackson

White Sox take Kolek

Cubs choose between Aiken/Rodon and Twins take the other.

 

That is definitely impossible. The Astros can save money no matter whom they pick. IMO best case would be Astros taking Rodon, Marlins taking Jackson, White Sox taking Aiken, Cubs taking a college player, and the Twins end up with Kolek. This has at least been mocked before.

[cmb0252]

The five or so I have read said average and above average defense. None said all star or gold glove defense. I think he gets into the top 5 on boards primarily because he plays and most think should stick at SS. Look at the SS contracts over the last 2 years. Guys like Andrus getting $120M

 

Mlb.com has his fielding at 60, arm at 60 (lowest I have seen), and speed at 60. Also, KLaw and Crawford has Gordon's speed/range at 60 with his arm being a 70. Add in the reports of having great hands/instincts (things you can't grade) and that is a 60-65 defensive player I believe.

 

One thing to take note of when looking at scouting reports are the dates. Several of the ones I saw after googling Gordon were from January. A lot of players grades/ranks have changed since then. Heck, even the grades I used up above haven't been changed since they were first released months ago!

[cmb0252]

I guess you win on this one as google has let me down and I cannot back up my claim. I swear I saw potential All-Star defense on at least one if not two but perhaps I was dreaming as I cannot find it. Or maybe I jumped to that conclusion as he was rated 65 or 70 for fielding, arm and speed which lead one to believe potential All-Star defense.

 

Most say he is the best infield prospect in this draft and the biggest question mark is his hit tool. He gets high marks for his make up and bloodlines for what ever that is worth. Seems high to be ranked 3,4, or 5th best prospect in this draft and it seems he is ranked higher than Jackson so maybe this is just a Shortstop value thing. I don't know. I just don't know why you would take a SS that high if he wasn't All-Star caliber. Barring one of the top three pitchers falling to the Twins they are going to pick Gordon. Maybe I am looking for excuses to like him.

 

Double check with the scouting reports you looked at. If you just googled him, which I just did, a lot of them are out of date. Not just Gordon but a ton of prospects have progressed, degressed, since the first round of scouting reports went out.

[Lonestar]

Mlb.com has his fielding at 60, arm at 60 (lowest I have seen), and speed at 60. Also, KLaw and Crawford has Gordon's speed/range at 60 with his arm being a 70. Add in the reports of having great hands/instincts (things you can't grade) and that is a 60-65 defensive player I believe.

I don't mean to bust your chops but I believe hands, instincts, and reactions come under fielding.

[cmb0252]

I don't mean to bust your chops but I believe hands, instincts, and reactions come under fielding.

 

Sorry, I didn't word that very well. Unlike speed/velocity where there is a set # for each grade there is not for hands/instincts. They are unmeasurable. You can only grade them by the eye test.

 

Here is a good break down of not only fielding but the rest of the scouted tools:

 

http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/pro-scouting/rating_system.htm

 

(Some of these may differ depending on the source)

[Kwak]

Ah, but does Gordon have the "quickness", "arm", and "hitting" to play 3B? This lofty ratig is predicated on Gordon remaining a SS. Twins experience with American-born SS is that said player won't "be there" come ML-time. Add to that the likelihood that Sano won't stay at 3B given his "physical nature" and previous experience. If Gordon doesn't "hack it" at SS, where does he go? Not 2B. Hopefully not another tryout at OF. Plouffe can be "choked-down" as a 3B for now (but not after free-agency for him)--so is Gordon viable at 3B? If he isn't viable at 3B, then he is too risky to take in hopes he can be a SS long-term (say 6 years).

[cmb0252]

Ah, but does Gordon have the "quickness", "arm", and "hitting" to play 3B? This lofty ratig is predicated on Gordon remaining a SS. Twins experience with American-born SS is that said player won't "be there" come ML-time. Add to that the likelihood that Sano won't stay at 3B given his "physical nature" and previous experience. If Gordon doesn't "hack it" at SS, where does he go? Not 2B. Hopefully not another tryout at OF. Plouffe can be "choked-down" as a 3B for now (but not after free-agency for him)--so is Gordon viable at 3B? If he isn't viable at 3B, then he is too risky to take in hopes he can be a SS long-term (say 6 years).

 

Cf? I don't understand the point of this exercise. Couldn't we say the same thing about every player? Starting pitcher moving to relief pitcher? 3B moving to first? Outfielder to Dh? Is every player to risky?

 

Also, what have you read that suggests that he won't be an SS going forward?

[tobi0040]

I guess you win on this one as google has let me down and I cannot back up my claim. I swear I saw potential All-Star defense on at least one if not two but perhaps I was dreaming as I cannot find it. Or maybe I jumped to that conclusion as he was rated 65 or 70 for fielding, arm and speed which lead one to believe potential All-Star defense.

 

Most say he is the best infield prospect in this draft and the biggest question mark is his hit tool. He gets high marks for his make up and bloodlines for what ever that is worth. Seems high to be ranked 3,4, or 5th best prospect in this draft and it seems he is ranked higher than Jackson so maybe this is just a Shortstop value thing. I don't know. I just don't know why you would take a SS that high if he wasn't All-Star caliber. Barring one of the top three pitchers falling to the Twins they are going to pick Gordon. Maybe I am looking for excuses to like him.

 

I would not be surprised if someone has said gold glove or all star SS defensively. I just haven't seen one. They all say great arm and good instincts, very athletic.

[tobi0040]

Cf? I don't understand the point of this exercise. Couldn't we say the same thing about every player? Starting pitcher moving to relief pitcher? 3B moving to first? Outfielder to Dh? Is every player to risky?

 

Also, what have you read that suggests that he won't be an SS going forward?

 

I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.

[nicksaviking]

I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.

 

Moving these guys off SS could have as much to do with a finicky organization as the players inability to man the position. Dozier was an acceptable SS in the minors and after a poor initial tryout was moved to 2B. There is nothing I have seen from Dozier the last two years that would indicate he couldn't play SS.

 

I'm also of the belief that had JJ Hardy been developed by the Twins, he would have been moved from from SS long before he reached the majors simply because his size and lack of speed profile against the position. To be fair, I think many clubs would have done the same.

[cmb0252]

I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.

 

Haven't we moved plenty of SPers to RPers so shouldn't that be mentioned?

 

Also, Polanco has played SS all year.

[oldguy10]

Call me on this one but I think I have read that the Twins do not consider Polanco a good bet to play shortstop at the MLB level. If that is so why do they have him playing that position this season?

[Dman]

Call me on this one but I think I have read that the Twins do not consider Polanco a good bet to play shortstop at the MLB level. If that is so why do they have him playing that position this season?

 

To me it says they know he can play second base and want to see what he can do at SS. It also suggests that moving Dozier off of second is unlikely and Polanco looks to have a very good hit tool. They must feel he has a better shot beating someone out at short or want ot foster his ability to start in a utility role for the MLB club. I agree with you I don't think the Twins see Polanco as a high end defensive SS.

[Kwak]

The risk for pitchers has to be accepted because a so very few position players have transitioned to starting pitchers and succeeded at the major league level. The restriction on SS has been raised because 2B is no longer a fall-back position for a "failed" SS, and the 5th OA draft slot is so valuable. Teams typically target a guy who is projected to be a top hittero starting pitcher. Gordon is neither of those--his projection was a solid fielding SS who "hits well for a SS". Hence my question (which didn't receive a response)--is Gordon viable at 3B? Both as a fielder and as a hitter? If so, then he can be drafted 1-5. But if not, then pass on him.

[neli21]

I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.

I would counter your point by noting that Polanco, Goodrum, and Levi (along with Aderlin Mejia) are all on the same team. That is quite an organizational logjam of projected, or once projected, shortstops at one level. Polanco is the best prospect of the bunch, so he's going to get the lion's share of the reps there. I have yet to read anything that says that all three of the guys, or even any of them, are definitively moved off of shortstop. By all means correct me if I am wrong there. Also, as a team that by all accounts builds itself via the draft, being too risk-averse in drafting premium talent at premium defensive positions will only serve to leave a gaping hole at the highest level of the organization at said positions.

[kab21]

Call me on this one but I think I have read that the Twins do not consider Polanco a good bet to play shortstop at the MLB level. If that is so why do they have him playing that position this season?

 

This is a team that stuck with Plouffe forever at SS despite his defensive liabilities. Polanco is not considered a likely SS due to his arm and pretty much only his arm. Gordon has the agility and most definitely the arm to stick at SS. It might happen that he moves but it should not receive a heavy weighting in his draft status.

[tobi0040]

I would counter your point by noting that Polanco, Goodrum, and Levi (along with Aderlin Mejia) are all on the same team. That is quite an organizational logjam of projected, or once projected, shortstops at one level. Polanco is the best prospect of the bunch, so he's going to get the lion's share of the reps there. I have yet to read anything that says that all three of the guys, or even any of them, are definitively moved off of shortstop. By all means correct me if I am wrong there. Also, as a team that by all accounts builds itself via the draft, being too risk-averse in drafting premium talent at premium defensive positions will only serve to leave a gaping hole at the highest level of the organization at said positions.

 

While true, I have read from knowledgeable people that we don't view any of these guys as the answer at SS due to defensive questions. To the other question, I have not seen anyone suggest Gordons bat will profile at 3B. I have heard he "may" develop 10-15 HR power and nobody thinks he will be a .300 hitter.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.

 

It's not just that the organization has this tendency. Beyond the reasons spelled out in responses above, players across the sport also simply move off SS regularly.

 

Does moving off the premium position of SS exist as a risk with Gordon? Of course, but I don't think any of the players you list came into the organization with the high ratings for their defense that Gordon currently gets.