2014 MLB Draft Thread

[70charger]

I care more about the bat than the position. I'd rather have Manny Rameriz as a corner outfielder than Alan Trammell at SS. Their WAR is pretty identical. The position bonus for WAR is weighted way to heavily. Offense is still, and always will be more important than defense. Rameriz has over a 200 point edge in career OPS. No defense in the world makes up for that.

 

I take your point, but who the heck do you put at shortstop? No defense may make up for 200 point edge in career OPS, but I'd argue that Pedro Florimon "makes up for" that difference.

 

Just not in the way you'd like.

[cmb0252]

Baseball Prospectus draft chat:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1164

[maxisagod]

Kiley McDaniel's new mock draft:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/story/1407185

 

Luke Weaver: A target for the Astros in the 2nd round is a buzz kill.

[Dman]

Law said Gordon is a guy the Twins have followed all season long. And he's a guy who shows a lot of "polish" and for a high school kid, he'll likely move up the [farm] system pretty fast as compared to most high school players.

 

I have the feeling Jackson will be gone by the time the Twins select. Either #2 or #4. Then the other 3 power pitchers (Aiken, Rodon, & Koleck) being the other picks.

 

Touki could be great. Nola is likely to be at least a Brandon Arroyo with more K's by 2015. But Gordon seems to be a solid selection.

 

I wish there was more hit and power as we seem to have the most depth at SS, although each of them seems to have one major issue. From Santana to Goodrum to Polanco to Vielma.

 

If Buxton can hit his 18-25 HR, Sano his 35-45 HR, Pinto his 20-25, and Arcia becomes what I think he can be, a 25-32 HR guy I guess we'd be in pretty good shape power wise going forward. But if not...could be some lean years again. When this team isn't walking it's not scoring runs without a power bat. Which is reflective of OBP, arguably shown to be the most indicative offensive stat of RS and thus, Wins. I'd take a great fielding SS who has a .375+ OBP...not caring that much about his other numbers.

 

 

Looking at it more objectively today Gordon grades out the best at #5 and meets as organizational need. Law has him #4 in his top 100 so taking him at #5 is not a reach. He has solid All-Star potential which is what you look for in a top pick. He is a good pick.

 

It's just that we will never buy an Ace pitcher on the open market so we have to develop one or two to make the playoffs. It is rare to find one so you need lot's of chances to find one. The high velocity and polished arms go first. You don't get to pick high that often so it seems to make sense to go pitcher at the top. Also the Twins haven't pitched well in so long that all I want is arms and then focus on position players. We have to find pitching to make it to the playoffs and WS.

 

Granted if they get Gordon we have Sano, Buxton, Gordon, Dozier, Pinto, Arcia, Mauer, Rosario who hopefully will all grade out as very good to All Star. Not to mention Polanco, Santana, Vargas, Harrison, Kepler and ABW3 to fill in as well. That should be a pretty strong group that is on the way. Will our pitching develop as well? I hope so.

[Twinsoholic]

Please accept my pardon if someone has made the following point already. One way to look at the draft is to contextualize it in terms of the current top 10 Twins prospects (I'm only counting guys currently in the minors or in extended spring training). My guess is that most people's lists will look something like this:

 

Buxton

Sano

Meyer

Berrios

Stewart

Rosario

Thorpe

Polanco

May

Vargas

 

Where would Gordon fit in on this list? Usually your #1 pick cracks the top 10 prospect list. Similarly, where would Nola and Freeland and Jackson and Kolek and the pitcher from Hartford and Tookie fit into this top 10?

 

My own preference is for a pitcher. I would place Gordon at #9 or #10 in the list. He might be a top 3 prospect in several years. I would place Nola and the Hartford pitcher higher. Any review of Baseball America's top ten lists for teams shows that it is not unusual for a majority of the players to have low-level major league careers. Pitchers can always be dealt for position players. It is harder to deal the latter for significant pitchers. I'll be interested in any responses.

[twinsfanstreif]

Please accept my pardon if someone has made the following point already. One way to look at the draft is to contextualize it in terms of the current top 10 Twins prospects (I'm only counting guys currently in the minors or in extended spring training). My guess is that most people's lists will look something like this:

 

Buxton

Sano

Meyer

Berrios

Stewart

Rosario

Thorpe

Polanco

May

Vargas

 

Where would Gordon fit in on this list? Usually your #1 pick cracks the top 10 prospect list. Similarly, where would Nola and Freeland and Jackson and Kolek and the pitcher from Hartford and Tookie fit into this top 10?

 

My own preference is for a pitcher. I would place Gordon at #9 or #10 in the list. He might be a top 3 prospect in several years. I would place Nola and the Hartford pitcher higher. Any review of Baseball America's top ten lists for teams shows that it is not unusual for a majority of the players to have low-level major league careers. Pitchers can always be dealt for position players. It is harder to deal the latter for significant pitchers. I'll be interested in any responses.

 

A top 5 pick in the draft their first year will usually be placed top 100 and #5 will usually be in the 70s - 80s range. Rosario was a top 100 guy before the suspension but Thorpe is not, our pick (until we can see what he can do) would most likely be placed either above or right below Rosario on most lists. I would probably put Nola above and Gordon below

[cmb0252]

Please accept my pardon if someone has made the following point already. One way to look at the draft is to contextualize it in terms of the current top 10 Twins prospects (I'm only counting guys currently in the minors or in extended spring training). My guess is that most people's lists will look something like this:

 

Buxton

Sano

Meyer

Berrios

Stewart

Rosario

Thorpe

Polanco

May

Vargas

 

Where would Gordon fit in on this list? Usually your #1 pick cracks the top 10 prospect list. Similarly, where would Nola and Freeland and Jackson and Kolek and the pitcher from Hartford and Tookie fit into this top 10?

 

My own preference is for a pitcher. I would place Gordon at #9 or #10 in the list. He might be a top 3 prospect in several years. I would place Nola and the Hartford pitcher higher. Any review of Baseball America's top ten lists for teams shows that it is not unusual for a majority of the players to have low-level major league careers. Pitchers can always be dealt for position players. It is harder to deal the latter for significant pitchers. I'll be interested in any responses.

 

Personally, I would put whomever the Twins draft at #5 at #5 right behind Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Stewart. Honestly, outside of Aiken if we had a Stewart clone I would take him ahead of the field......I'm kind of a Stewart fanboy though.

[twinsfan34]

Thought this was a great post on some of the potential "Aces" for the 2014 Draft. Some excellent GIFs (animations) of the pitching deliveries as well as analysis by Baseball Prospectus.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23731

 

Koleck's motion looks good to me here and his velocity is 'easy'. Hoffman is a stick (didn't like him before) and didn't like his delivery then...watching this, don't like it even more. I'd take Nola's setup and deliver over his. Forget the body actually doing the work.

[Willihammer]

Thought this was a great post on some of the potential "Aces" for the 2014 Draft. Some excellent GIFs (animations) of the pitching deliveries as well as analysis by Baseball Prospectus.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23731

 

Koleck's motion looks good to me here and his velocity is 'easy'. Hoffman is a stick (didn't like him before) and didn't like his delivery then...watching this, don't like it even more. I'd take Nola's setup and deliver over his. Forget the body actually doing the work.

 

Cool read. I pity the RHBs who have to stand in against a 95 mph+ flamethrower who delivers at this angle:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images2/KolekStride.png

 

No. Way.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, the draft is almost on us. Let's see if traffic can kill TD like it did last year.

 

My top 6 at this point... I want upside. I'd probably pass on guys like Nola and Freeland in favor of raw talent that has upside. Obvious exceptions being Rodon who won't make it 5 anyways.

 

Aiken

Rodon

Kolek

Jackson

Touki

Gordon

 

I think the second round will be interesting. There will still be high upside talent there with guys like Fede/Hoffman falling, some tough sign pitching guys, and guys like Gatewood. The Twins have plenty of 'safe' guys in the system, I think this draft might be a good one to go high upside in the first few rounds and fill out some safer picks later on.

[Willihammer]

I agree with upside. Highest upside IMO

 

Kolek

Jackson

Touki

Rodon

Holmes

 

Kolek takes the cake with Clemens type upside. I think Jackson can and will stick behind the plate. My crystal ball sees him turning into Mike Piazza. Touki > Pedro - the hammer, the quick arm and electricity is either there or else its a damn good mirage. I see Rodon as a poor man's Sabathia upside, maybe 210 IP and 200 K's for a good 10 year stretch. Holmes I'm less sure about. I think his curve and cutter are tremendous but wonder about durability. If the health gods take care of him, I could easily see him turning in a 7-8 year stretch resembling Halladay's prime.

[Twins Twerp]

I agree with upside. Highest upside IMO

 

Kolek

Jackson

Touki

Rodon

Holmes

 

Kolek takes the cake with Clemens type upside. I think Jackson can and will stick behind the plate. My crystal ball sees him turning into Mike Piazza. Touki > Pedro - the hammer, the quick arm and electricity is either there or else its a damn good mirage. I see Rodon as a poor man's Sabathia upside, maybe 210 IP and 200 K's for a good 10 year stretch. Holmes I'm less sure about. I think his curve and cutter are tremendous but wonder about durability. If the health gods take care of him, I could easily see him turning in a 7-8 year stretch resembling Halladay's prime.

So this years draft class has 4 HOF guys in it and another guy who won multiple Cy Youngs. Sounds like a good draft class. How about Gordon, he has Ozzy Smith like glove right? Lets keep the comps a little more realistic.

[Twins Twerp]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-separating-fact-from-fiction/

New mock up on ba. Doing some Sunday work...pretty nice.

[maxisagod]

Here's a question: would you trade Fien or Duensing for the 39th draft pick like the Pirates did? In a draft like this, there are a few extra name I would like to add to the Twins system.

[markos]

Here's a question: would you trade Fien or Duensing for the 39th draft pick like the Pirates did? In a draft like this, there are a few extra name I would like to add to the Twins system.

 

I would definitely trade Duensing; I might trade Fien. I would also argue that both are better than the player the Pirates gave up.

 

Is this anything less than a cost-cutting move from the Marlins? I'm so glad I'm not a Marlins fan.

[Trevor0333]

I would definitely trade Duensing; I might trade Fien. I would also argue that both are better than the player the Pirates gave up.

 

Is this anything less than a cost-cutting move from the Marlins? I'm so glad I'm not a Marlins fan.

 

Gardy loves Fien and he has been very good. Duesnsing though is as good as gone & pitching well.

[Trevor0333]

I wouldn't be upset with Gordon but really like Nola. I'd prefer looking for a SS on the international pool.

[gunnarthor]

We just need a scenario where Aiken falls to us ...

[twinsfanstreif]

We just need a scenario where Aiken falls to us ...

 

we have about as much chance of that happening as we had with Tanaka signing with us........

[twinsfanstreif]

we have about as much chance of that happening as we had with Tanaka signing with us........

 

However it would be fun to play the "Achen' for some bacon" clip from Lion King every time he came in

[notoriousgod71]

Gardy loves Fien and he has been very good. Duesnsing though is as good as gone & pitching well.

 

No, hang onto Duensing. He can be used in the Kershaw trade.

[maxisagod]

We just need a scenario where Aiken falls to us ...

 

Aiken, of all the top pitchers, I think is the safest in terms of injury risk. Though we don't have a definitive list of things that can lead to future season ending injury. Heavy pitch count in college (Rodon), Pitching in the offseason for tryouts (Kolek), or even heavy use of a slider compared to other pitches like a curveball, have all been suggested as indicators of break down later on. Aiken has avoided all of those. IMO Whoever gets him will be getting the best high ceiling/ low risk pitcher in the top half of the draft... Hear's hoping it's not the Sox.

[twinsfan34]

BP Draft Chat:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1164

 

Jason (NY): Who has the best curveball and highest pure ceiling for a pitcher in the draft? I'd be inclined to go Touki for both. Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'll co-sign.

 

Me three.

 

Presently feeling...

 

Aiken > Koleck > Rodon > Jackson > Touki > Gordon > Newcomb > Nola

 

Ceiling wise, I'd probably have Touki the highest though.

[twinsfanstreif]

BP Draft Chat:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1164

 

Jason (NY): Who has the best curveball and highest pure ceiling for a pitcher in the draft? I'd be inclined to go Touki for both. Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'll co-sign.

 

Me three.

 

Presently feeling...

 

Aiken > Koleck > Rodon > Jackson > Touki > Gordon > Newcomb > Nola

 

Ceiling wise, I'd probably have Touki the highest though.

 

I would have to go with Kolek as the highest ceiling, he has the potential to become a Nolan Ryan/Randy Johnson type, Touki just doesn't have that kind of ceiling

[cmb0252]

Crawford released his final, possibly, board of the draft year. A surprise player made it into the top 3. Here is the link:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/the-final-2014-board-probably/

[twinsfan34]

I would have to go with Kolek as the highest ceiling, he has the potential to become a Nolan Ryan/Randy Johnson type, Touki just doesn't have that kind of ceiling

 

Interesting.

 

I have Koleck as #2...not far behind though.

 

A matter of preference perhaps?

 

Maybe this question will shed more light on it.

 

Who do you view as being the most dominant...

 

A. Randy Johnson

B. Nolan Ryan

C. Pedro Martinez

D. Greg Maddux

 

[twinsfan34]

Some fun fodder if you will.

 

Kohl Stewart, by many would be right behind Aiken as the #2 prospect if he were in this Draft.

 

I'll admit, I wanted Bryant (3B) who went to the Cubs...my favorite pick, then Gray.

 

And just for some fun, a look at Kohl Stewart, the #4 overall pick, a HS pitcher, and Mark Appel, the #1 overall pick, 4 yr college starter at Stanford.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]7632[/ATTACH]

I know stats aren't everything and it's not saying anything going forward. Just what it is for what it is now.

[twinsfanstreif]

Interesting.

 

I have Koleck as #2...not far behind though.

 

A matter of preference perhaps?

 

Maybe this question will shed more light on it.

 

Who do you view as being the most dominant...

 

A. Randy Johnson

B. Nolan Ryan

C. Pedro Martinez

D. Greg Maddux

 

 

Easy, It's a tie between Ryan and Johnson because Johnson hit a bird with a pitch and Ryan hit Robin Ventura with his fist........

[InfraRen]

Draft week is upon us!!!

[twinsfan34]

Easy, It's a tie between Ryan and Johnson because Johnson hit a bird with a pitch and Ryan hit Robin Ventura with his fist........

 

You're either a lawyer or Jon Stewart

 

 

E. Tim Keefe in 1880, although he only pitched 105 innings, so I'll go with the #2 guy there. One Pedro Martinez.

 

Pedro's opponent batting line is just sick: .167/.213/.259; and of course, a MLB record 0.74 WHIP.

 

Single Season ERA+ Leaders:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_season.shtml

 

I will say if I was a right handed hitter, Nolan Ryan would be my most feared. If a left handed hitter, Randy Johnson.

 

But I'd probably be most frustrated against Pedro Martinez. With Randy I'd have a career .281 OBP. Nolan, a .293 OBP....Pedro? .260.

 

And with Nolan and Randy I'd have a 15% and 11% chance of obtaining a free pass without taking the bat off my shoulder. With Pedro? I'd only have an 8% chance of getting a BB.