2014 MLB Draft Thread

[cmb0252]

Few questions from Law's chat regarding teams in front of us:

What should the Cubs do in the draft if Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek go 1, 2, 3?

Klaw (2:10 PM)

I could see them taking someone like Conforto and cutting a decent deal, going under slot but not wildly so, then going after pitching with their next few selections. They could do the same with Aaron Nola, just figuring they'd be getting a surefire big leaguer who gets there quick even without the ceiling, but I don't know if they'd get a huge discount with Nola so likely to go 2-7.

 

Can you see a scenario where one of Aiken, Kolek, or Rodon gets to the Cubs and they pass?)

Klaw

(2:27 PM)

I could see them passing on Kolek but not the other two. Doesn't mean they will, just that they might. But I also have a hard time seeing Aiken or Rodon getting there.

 

I saw one mock with the White Sox choosing Alex Jackson, but you have mentioned they are all in on one of the three pitchers. Who do you see them leaning towards at this point? Thanks

Klaw (2:18 PM)

Pitchers. I think there's zero chance they take Jackson. Only hearing them really on Kolek and Nola right now

 

The White Sox taking Nola would be a mistake at 3, no?

Klaw (2:31 PM)

I don't think so. Kid probably has 70 fastball command right now.

[cmb0252]

With answers from Law's chat and Manuel's mock they suggest there is a none-zero chance that Kolek could fall to the Twins at #5. A lot would have to break right so I won't get too excited. Also, here is a question in Law's chat about the Twins:

Any gut feeling on where the Twins will lean toward with their first pick?

Klaw (2:42 PM)

Gordon or Nola.

 

Ton of more great draft questions in the chat:

 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50650/mlb-insider-keith-law

[John Bonnes]

New mock draft from BA is up and there is a shake up in the top 5 picks. Twins end up taking kolek. Here is the link:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-draft-preview-shakeup-atop-mock-draft-3-0/

 

That's a very interesting decision. The Twins haven't had a great track records with big pitchers. Certainly Hudson Boyd hasn't worked out so well. And adding a top notch shortstop prospect to this system would be pretty enticing, up until the point where Kolek becomes CC Sabathia.

[pierre75275]

Klaw thinks that Beebe falls out of the first round. What are the chances he falls to 46 and if he does...do the Twins happily snap him up?

[cmb0252]

Klaw thinks that Beebe falls out of the first round. What are the chances he falls to 46 and if he does...do the Twins happily snap him up?

 

Ryan Stanek, another big stuff no command pitcher, who was a potential top 5 pick last year fell to 29 last year but not out of the 1st round. I find it hard to believe that Beede would make it by all the teams with multiple picks before the Twins.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Klaw thinks that Beebe falls out of the first round. What are the chances he falls to 46 and if he does...do the Twins happily snap him up?

 

Make that a resounding "YES".

[nicksaviking]

Beede's a junior and he already gambled on himself by not signing once. I'd bet there's a pretty strong chance he goes back to school next year if he's not drafted in the upper half of the first round.

[cmb0252]

New mock draft by maybe the best in the bizz , Jim Callis. With the 5th pick he has the Twins taking..........Kolek. Here is his full mock:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-astros-might-take-prep-pitcher-aiken-no-1?ymd=20140523&content_id=76511650&vkey=news_mlb

[John Bonnes]

New mock draft by maybe the best in the bizz , Jim Callis. With the 5th pick he has the Twins taking..........Kolek. Here is his full mock:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-astros-might-take-prep-pitcher-aiken-no-1?ymd=20140523&content_id=76511650&vkey=news_mlb

 

Well, Callis' mock draft, which I take pretty seriously because he has crazy good sources, it all kinds of interesting.

 

First, there is the persistent rumor that the Marlins could be dictated by management to go with Rodon. Almost every draft has them taking Jackson otherwise.

 

Second, there is his take on the White Sox, where if they don't get Rodon (and in his mock, they do), they might get none of the top picks, going for another college pitcher.

 

Finally, there are the Cubs. Callis has them sniping Gordon before he gets to the Twins, but he doesn't seem very sure of himself. He thinks they also might lean towards a college pitcher if Rodon is gone (which he almost sure is).

 

So Callis has Kolek falling to the Twins who take him partly because Jackson and Gordon are both gone. He suggests they might look at college pitchers if they don't want Kolek, but doesn't mention Nola, going with Freeland or Newcomb. And THEN he mentions a dark horse prep outfielder if they want to save money?

 

Holy cow. There are at least three new interesting things there:

1. Twins could have to decide between Kolek, Jackson AND Gordon if the teams above them latch onto college pitchers.

2. Nola, who has been rumored to be of interest to the Twins, might be passed by other college pitchers?

3. The high school prep player, Monte Harrison, could be signed ala Ben Revere to save the Twins big money and get aggressive with their second pick?

[Einstein]

3. The high school prep player, Monte Harrison, could be signed ala Ben Revere to save the Twins big money and get aggressive with their second pick?

Ugh, I wouldn't be a fan of that. 5th pick overall is too high for that IMO, stick with BPA.

[notoriousgod71]

If Kolek is available and we pass on him everyone should be fired.

[notoriousgod71]

Does Nola remind anyone of Radke? Control guy, several slightly above average pitches, even their wind up looks similar. Although not spectacular I would take another Radke at #5 to pair with Meyer!

 

I can't say whether Nola is better than, worse than, or equal to Radke but I think we need to shoot higher than Radke with pick number five.

[markos]

Does Kolek scare anyone else? I like big-time velocity as much as the next guy, but if his command and secondary pitches don't develop he is just a bullpen arm at best.

[twinsfanstreif]

I can't say whether Nola is better than, worse than, or equal to Radke but I think we need to shoot higher than Radke with pick number five.

 

Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them

[Twins Twerp]

If Kolek is available and we pass on him everyone should be fired.

If they take kolek and he ends up having tommy john and being a bullpen arm, the the tins brass gets fired. Go be a yankee fan with comments like that. Kolek hasnt done sh** yet. We can speculate on who to take and who we want...but won't know for 10 years if it was a good pick or not. Even trevor plouffe is starting to look like a decent pick ten uears in the making. I bet we look back and say...if,only we would have taken Nola

[Lonestar]

I can't say whether Nola is better than, worse than, or equal to Radke but I think we need to shoot higher than Radke with pick number five.

Think Radke with 3-5 mph more velocity and greater GB%. IIRC, Radke's changeup was plus and Nola's is not there yet.

 

I've changed my mind. I would not be disappointed with the Twins taking Nola.

[Kwak]

If Kolek is available and we pass on him everyone should be fired.

 

Fear not about not selecting Kolek--he will be gone by the Twins turn! Whil he Twins shudder at a power pitcher (especially since the 100-pitch-count philosophy would be jeopardized) other teams still prize power pitchers.

[Willihammer]

Does Kolek scare anyone else? I like big-time velocity as much as the next guy, but if his command and secondary pitches don't develop he is just a bullpen arm at best.

Agree. I would prefer a 95 mph+ fastball and a swing and miss CB that can be thrown for strikes, at minimum. And I'm not sure Kolek's breaking pitch measures up, although there's no way to be sure.

[AlwaysinModeration]

If they take kolek and he ends up having tommy john and being a bullpen arm, the the tins brass gets fired. Go be a yankee fan with comments like that. Kolek hasnt done sh** yet. We can speculate on who to take and who we want...but won't know for 10 years if it was a good pick or not. Even trevor plouffe is starting to look like a decent pick ten uears in the making. I bet we look back and say...if,only we would have taken Nola

 

Here is what I posted on the Nola thread:

 

"I'm liking Nola more and more as the draft comes up. Even if he doesn't wind up as a big strikeout guy, his ability to limit walks seems like an 80-grade tool. (A tool that is also hard to develop.) For some reason, I am envisioning him coming out of this draft as the best pitcher by far, with teams kicking themselves for passing on him.

...

"The biggest reason not to draft him is that this might be the last chance the Twins have for a while to have this high of a high draft pick, and therefore it might be the last really good chance to get the SS of the future in a guy like Gordon."

 

Right now I am hoping for Nola or Gordon. Reasons to be scared of drafting a HS pitcher two years running. Rodon also seems to have some red flags.

[twinsfanstreif]

The more I watch tape and think about it I begin to really like the idea of Nola or Freeland. Both are control guys with a good mix of pitches and #2 type stuff. Each has projection left with Freeland having a little more than Nola but Nola is better now. Freeland is a lefty so there is an advantage there. These guys seem safer than the others but have a more complete arsenal and better control. I'm a bigger fan of this rather than Gordon, I'm just not sold on him.

[cmb0252]

The more I watch tape and think about it I begin to really like the idea of Nola or Freeland. Both are control guys with a good mix of pitches and #2 type stuff. Each has projection left with Freeland having a little more than Nola but Nola is better now. Freeland is a lefty so there is an advantage there. These guys seem safer than the others but have a more complete arsenal and better control. I'm a bigger fan of this rather than Gordon, I'm just not sold on him.

 

Nola really has no projection left. Freeland has some but I doubt either becomes #2 starters. Law saw Nola yesterday and here is what he said:

 

"I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April."

 

Top 5 picks should have higher ceilings. No matter how advanced a pitcher is you can't bank on them being safe. Just ask the Mariners how well that turned out after using the #2 overall pick on Hultzen in 2011.

[twinsfanstreif]

Nola really has no projection left. Freeland has some but I doubt either becomes #2 starters. Law saw Nola yesterday and here is what he said:

 

"I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April."

 

Top 5 picks should have higher ceilings. No matter how advanced a pitcher is you can't bank on them being safe. Just ask the Mariners how well that turned out after using the #2 overall pick on Hultzen in 2011.

 

While I do like and trust Law's opinion there are plenty of scouts who say otherwise on Nola, he could see an improvement on velocity in the next few years with some conditioning and a few tweeks on his delivery. I do agree with the fact that if you throw him out there right away he won't really be much more than he currently is. Hultzen had significantly more questions than Nola does right now and he was projected as average across the board with no out pitch, a #3 ceiling, and inconsistent command. Where scouts liked Hultzen is he was a big, smart, projectable pitcher who could dominate if his FB improved (he was topping out at 94 in most reports I saw). His FB never improved and he's a #5 at best. Most scouting reports I saw on him said this exact thing so Seattle did drastically over draft him in a weak pitching class. The difference with Nola is all of his stuff is above average right now including a curve that might be the best in this class, he's a smaller guy with incredible control. If scouts liked his body more and his FB had a few ticks more (he sits 91-94 but has topped out at 96) he would be a sure fire top 3.

[Lonestar]

I don't recall any projection of more velocity for Nola and would appreciate a link. I would be very careful of tweaking his delivery. There is some projection for his changeup and maybe his breaking ball (slider IIRC).

[notoriousgod71]

Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them

 

Wainwright, Cain, and Carpenter are all better than Radke was. If he ends up being Radke, fine, but I think our goal should be higher than that.

[twinsfanstreif]

I don't recall any projection of more velocity for Nola and would appreciate a link. I would be very careful of tweaking his delivery. There is some projection for his changeup and maybe his breaking ball (slider IIRC).

 

here's a few:

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/06/25/2014-mlb-draft-profile-aaron-nola/

 

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/1/13/5304880/phillies-2014-draft-preview-aaron-nola-rhp

[drivlikejehu]

Except for guys with mechanical flaws, velocity peaks young, before most are in the Majors. And since Nola's strength is his command, mechanical changes might not be a great idea. With an MLB workload he's a low 90s guy.

[Lonestar]

here's a few:

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/06/25/2014-mlb-draft-profile-aaron-nola/

 

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/1/13/5304880/phillies-2014-draft-preview-aaron-nola-rhp

I found those, too, before I asked. They are not scouts, nor have they played them on TV.

[nicksaviking]

Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them

 

But a guy who projects to be Brad Radke can bust just as a guy who projects to be Johan Santana. Why wouldn't you pick the guy with higher upside? It's a crapshoot with all these guys. People are getting fooled into thinking, "control" and low velocity guys are more of a sure thing to make it. If they are more likely, we're probably talking about a likelihood of 40% instead of 35%. I'm not tossing away upside for a measly 5% increase in odds.

 

Bottom line is, Nola is far from a lock from becoming Brad Radke. In fact the odds are against it. He is almost certainly a lock NOT to become an ace. The other available pitchers are also aren't likely to be as effective as Brad Radke, but at least they do have a shot at being an ace.

[twinsfanstreif]

But a guy who projects to be Brad Radke can bust just as a guy who projects to be Johan Santana. Why wouldn't you pick the guy with higher upside? It's a crapshoot with all these guys. People are getting fooled into thinking, "control" and low velocity guys are more of a sure thing to make it. If they are more likely, we're probably talking about a likelihood of 40% instead of 35%. I'm not tossing away upside for a measly 5% increase in odds.

 

Bottom line is, Nola is far from a lock from becoming Brad Radke. In fact the odds are against it. He is almost certainly a lock NOT to become an ace. The other available pitchers are also aren't likely to be as effective as Brad Radke, but at least they do have a shot at being an ace.

 

Who are we referring to though? If Aiken, Kolek, and Roden are off the board who else projects as an ace? Maybe Beede but his control issues are risky, maybe Newcomb but he is super raw, maybe Hoffman but he needs TJ and that's always tricky. those are the only guys aside from the top 3 who COULD project as an ace and they are all very risky. Nola's not my favorite guy but there is no one who is projected to be there that blows me away unless one of the big 3 falls so Nola and Freeland become intriguing options. I like ceiling as much as the next guy but very few prospects a year have a high ceiling with low risk. It's the difference of a 200/1 odds to win $10,000 or 10/1 odds to win $1000. It's beginning to look just like last years #4 pick in a 3 man race. This year we have #5 pick this year in a 3, maybe 4 man race.

[Kwak]

For those who want to draft a Brad Radke I say: "Patience, and draft him in the later rounds just where the real Brad Radke was drafted."