Article: Twins Still Have Room For Pitching

[70charger]

In the course of doing some research for this thread, I came across an incredible stat line on Anthony Swarzak: Last year he threw as many innings (96) as in 2012 while starting in five fewer games (0). His ERA was 2.91. His ERA+ was 139. He had his best year in terms of k/9 (6.4), BB/9 (2.1) and WHIP (1.15). I think it's safe to say he has found his niche. And he is way more valuable in that role than his trade value (long relievers are some of the most underrated players on a team).

 

I'm glad you did this digging. To me, Swarzak looked pretty darn good this past year, but given his past struggles as a starter and his not exactly sterling reputation for stuff, I had no idea that his season was so good. The stats are very telling.

 

I've seen some around here who are willing to literally toss Swarzak out before the season even starts, and it's never seemed like a good idea to me, especially when a few bullpen pieces have options. I just hope he can continue.

[Guest USAFChief]

mea culpa. Double-checked 14th ERA indeed. I would agree about AL and NL as far as starters go, but by the time the pen is in, usually the other starter is out of the game and pinch hitters are hitting for him. Not that much difference here.

 

And bullpen ERA is kind of a bogus stat because if a reliever gives up an inherited bases loaded triple with two outs that empties the bases and get the next guy out, he looks like he had a clean appearance and has a zero ERA for the game.

 

That's why xFIP is a better measure here and the Twins' pen was 24th in the majors... Actually David Appelman's Clutch measurement might be an even better measure for pen effectiveness because it combines win probability added with leverage. The Twins' pen ranks 20th in the majors with 0.08...

 

It depends on how you look at it. If that same reliever came into a game with the bases empty, gave up a triple and then retired the next hitter, his ERA for that appearance would also be zero. Since he wasn't responsible for the runners on base in your example I'm not sure why you think his ERA should reflect them.

 

No single statistic in isolation properly captures everything you need to know about a bullpen. There is nothing wrong with ERA being part of the evaluation.

[EGFTShaw]

I'd agree with one letter change:

 

I wouldn't want to ad more pitching at this point, unless it is a huge bargain or a clear upgrade.

 

Well I would rather ADD than AD...

 

That is where I though you were going with the one letter change.

 

Tanaka would be steal...unlikely but you could try to sell him on the upside of the Twins when Sano, Buxton, Meyer and Rosario join the Bigs...with Stewart and others on the way.

 

That said, I would take a flyer on Johan as either as starter or a reliever...he started in the pen...and with his knowledge he could be a good addition.

 

Cheers everyone...in January there is ALWAYS hope in the air...at least TR and team are doing something...

[ashbury]

No single statistic in isolation properly captures everything you need to know about a bullpen.

 

Amen to that. (Sometimes one gets tired of saying "concur".) On one hand, giving up that triple has different ramifications due to the on-base status when the guy comes in, and ideally you want your stat to reflect that. On the other hand, any pitcher worth his salt is going to *pitch* differently if he comes in with the bases loaded than if empty; one example that comes to mind is that he may stay away from his best breaking pitch in the dirt so as to not put that much pressure on his catcher to corral it if it gets away. "No single statistic" is going to capture that very easily.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Amen to that. (Sometimes one gets tired of saying "concur".) On one hand, giving up that triple has different ramifications due to the on-base status when the guy comes in, and ideally you want your stat to reflect that. On the other hand, any pitcher worth his salt is going to *pitch* differently if he comes in with the bases loaded than if empty; one example that comes to mind is that he may stay away from his best breaking pitch in the dirt so as to not put that much pressure on his catcher to corral it if it gets away. "No single statistic" is going to capture that very easily.

 

Or it's more likely that over 600 IP, the numbers wash out. It would seem pretty freakish that 10 full reliever seasons could sway much in one direction or the other.

[cmathewson]

Well I would rather ADD than AD...

 

That is where I though you were going with the one letter change.

 

Tanaka would be steal...unlikely but you could try to sell him on the upside of the Twins when Sano, Buxton, Meyer and Rosario join the Bigs...with Stewart and others on the way.

 

That said, I would take a flyer on Johan as either as starter or a reliever...he started in the pen...and with his knowledge he could be a good addition.

 

Cheers everyone...in January there is ALWAYS hope in the air...at least TR and team are doing something...

 

I think Johan is an extreme long shot at this point. Not that they won't sign him. But, if they sign him, it's to spend at least a half a season getting back into a groove and the rest of the year in the bullpen. He was the first to come back and have success with that surgery. Then the Mets let him throw 138 pitches in his no-hit bid and he was effectively done.

 

Now he has to come back from that surgery again. It would be a great story, but he's less likely than Rich harden was last year. And we all know how that turned out,

[orangevening]

I still would like to see if TR can get the Phillies to bite on an offer of Corriea, Burton, & May for Dominic Brown & Papelbon's contract opening a roster spot for Garza.

 

They are desperate for cheap young SP & payroll space to sign a #5 & replacemetn closer.

 

 

No way does Philly do this deal. Yes it saves $, but it looks horrible from a production standpoint.

[Brandon]

What was the Twins bullpen ERA last September? as I recall it was pretty high and that was attributed to a tired bullpen. That would have increased the team bullpen era enough to go from say 8th in the leagues to 14th....

[bertrecords]

The log jam moves from myth to reality when mediocre pitchers are chosen for the short term over giving consistent innings to a younger (likely to be struggling) starter of the future.

 

The Twins best option is Pelfrey and Hughes in the bullpen if it turns out they are not providing an upgrade and/or if there are young (high upside) starting pitchers who are ready for MLB innings.

[snepp]

Ahhh.... The regular amateur GM post. Thought we might get though this thread w/o one.

 

 

We're all amateur GM's here (assuming that TR isn't lurking somewhere), let's try to avoid the unnecessary potshots please.

[Alex]

I just want to add agreement that there is a disconnect between busting both myths, even if the the conclusions are technically true. Moving two or three pitchers to the pen who aren't proven relievers is a long shot to make the pen better

 

So, solving one problem with the other, in this case, doesn't make sense.

[howieramone1406390264]

I just want to add agreement that there is a disconnect between busting both myths, even if the the conclusions are technically true. Moving two or three pitchers to the pen who aren't proven relievers is a long shot to make the pen better

 

So, solving one problem with the other, in this case, doesn't make sense.

 

The too much starting pitching dilemma which seems to be causing undue angst to a handful, prior to Thanksgiving would have seemed like a gift from Heaven. I would guess even those with Pro-Ryan leanings were surprised how quickly and thoroughly he positioned the starting pitching rotation towards respectability, not only for 2014, but for several years beyond. If Diamond and/or Worley are lost for little or no value, it seems like a small price to pay for a team which lost 90+ games 3 years in a row and had the worst starting rotation in baseball in 2013.

 

It's very common for teams to restructure the bullpen every offseason. With an acceptable core and many internal options available, I can't imagine it's a concern of any magnitude at One Twins Way.

[Dantes929]

Innings per appearance seems to be of marginal value in determining the quality of a bullpen. # of appearances is significant but really if you have an extra 100+ innings to spread around and your innings per appearance is average then you simply have to use more guys you don't want to. If our starters consistently give 6 or 7 innings with the short starts being rare then you have fewer innings and appearances to deal with and a larger share is being done by your best pitchers. I don't thinks its a myth. We have a good bullpen. Maybe not great but plenty good and if they had the KC rotation and handling they would show it. Remember how Guerrier would get dead arm when his pace for a season was over 70 appearances. KC had zero relievers with over 70 appearances. Twins had 3. Goes back to my theory that it is much easier on a relievers arm to pitch 2 innings every third day than it is to pitch 1 inning twice every 3 days. The fact that the Twins have league average innings per appearance is a very bad thing when considering that they had that many more innings to pitch. That just translates to more appearances which to me means overworked.

[jokin]

The too much starting pitching dilemma which seems to be causing undue angst to a handful, prior to Thanksgiving would have seemed like a gift from Heaven. I would guess even those with Pro-Ryan leanings were surprised how quickly and thoroughly he positioned the starting pitching rotation towards respectability, not only for 2014, but for several years beyond. If Diamond and/or Worley are lost for little or no value, it seems like a small price to pay for a team which lost 90+ games 3 years in a row and had the worst starting rotation in baseball in 2013.

 

It's very common for teams to restructure the bullpen every offseason. With an acceptable core and many internal options available, I can't imagine it's a concern of any magnitude at One Twins Way.

 

Agreed- the undue angst on disturbing the sacrosanct status quo is typical and somewhat comical. And teams successfully move SPs to RPs and back the other way all the time. Not every move like this ends up being Slowey-esque.

 

 

I would guess even those with Pro-Ryan leanings were surprised how quickly and thoroughly he positioned the starting pitching rotation towards respectability,

 

Here's where we disagree....I would guess especially those with Pro-Ryan leanings were surprised how quickly the rotation could be upgraded.

 

Most of us neutral or anti-status quo FO have been clamoring that upgrades in the rotation are not only doable, but affordable and necessary since post-2010.

[Alex]

I think there's a difference between never having "too much start pitching" and never having "too much good starting pitching."

 

No one was against the Twins acquiring good starting pitching, and hopefully Pelfrey is better and Hughes pitches better at Target Field and/or recognizes his potential.

 

Hopefully the Twins did acquire upgrades that will help them both short and long term and that they are able to transition players that could have higher upside or those they let go aren't missed opportunities.