Not Hearing Much About Worley

[TheLeviathan]

As bad as Mike Pelfrey was overall last year, Kyle Gibson was even worse. I expect Kyle Gibson to be better than he was last year and have in no way given up on him. Mike Pelfrey has had success in the majors while Kyle Gibson hasn't. I would like Kyle Gibson to start in the Twins rotation this year, but at this point I don't see how he deserves a spot over Mike Pelfrey unless he proves it before the season starts.

 

The same goes for Correia and the other pitchers. Kevin Correia was by far our best starting pitcher last year besides Sam Deduno. Did you see how Worley and Diamond pitched last year? Kevin Correia deserves to be in the rotation over them, unless proven before the season starts that he doesn't.

 

Should we cut bait on Hicks too? Basing roster decisions on one season is not wise, especially when Worley, Deduno, Diamond, and Gibson all hd injury issues. Were they bad last year? Absolutely, they've also been MUCH better than Correia and Pelfrey the year prior.

 

We shouldn't be tossing away young players with upside for deadend 33 year olds. You should also notice my beef isn't with Pelfrey (there is upside there), it's with the scholarship to Correia that I object. Find a hole for him to fall into and the situation is much better.

[kab21]

Now we are concerned about having too many capable MLB starters? KC is boring but he is at least a competent MLB starter which is a lot more than we have been able to say for a few years. Every year I hear the same analysis: Why sign player X when random AAA prospect guy might be able to give you the same stats? Too often random prospect guy comes up and gets demolished in the majors.

 

Gibson spending a couple of months in AAA doesn't concern me and neither does losing 1 or 2 of Diamond/Deduno/Worley.

[TheLeviathan]

Now we are concerned about having too many capable MLB starters? KC is boring but he is at least a competent MLB starter which is a lot more than we have been able to say for a few years. Every year I hear the same analysis: Why sign player X when random AAA prospect guy might be able to give you the same stats? Too often random prospect guy comes up and gets demolished in the majors.

 

Gibson spending a couple of months in AAA doesn't concern me and neither does losing 1 or 2 of Diamond/Deduno/Worley.

 

Diamond and Worley are one year removed from being MORE than capable. Shoulder injuries are what hurt them in part. Seems like a poor reason to cut bait.

[goulik]

I agree with both sides of the discussion in most ways but there are things a pitcher can work on at a lower level.

For instance, Melotakis was not going out and giving what he felt was his best stuff on a daily basis last year at the level he should have been at. The Twins left him at CR to specifically work on improving certain pitches before moving up. If a pitcher is to work on ironing out certain approaches or techniques, that should be done at a level down where his ERA is less than 6-7.

Likewise, Colabello dominated Rochester but hopefully learned he needs to change his approach to hitting MLB pitching. Hopefully he is working on those things.

Aaron Hicks showed a need to work. Just because his numbers at AAA were poor after being sent down doesn't mean he wasn't "improving".

The question is, does Gibson have specific things the big club wants him to work on? If so, AAA. If not, hopefully he earns his way into the rotation and Correia is traded in Spring Training.

[Tibs]

Should we cut bait on Hicks too? Basing roster decisions on one season is not wise, especially when Worley, Deduno, Diamond, and Gibson all hd injury issues. Were they bad last year? Absolutely, they've also been MUCH better than Correia and Pelfrey the year prior.

 

We shouldn't be tossing away young players with upside for deadend 33 year olds. You should also notice my beef isn't with Pelfrey (there is upside there), it's with the scholarship to Correia that I object. Find a hole for him to fall into and the situation is much better.

 

I never said toss them aside. I find it interesting that you are mentioning scholarships while seeming to state Diamond, Worley, and Gibson should be in the rotation over Pelfrey and Correia. That doesn't sound like a fair shake at all. These guys have to prove they belong in the rotation out of spring training, and Correia definitely deserves a spot as of right now.

 

Vance Worley had an ERA+ of 56 last year while reportedly showing up out of shape. He has also never pitched more than 133 innings in a season. Scott Diamond had an ERA+ of 75. I believe both of them had surgeries on their arms, but Mike Pelfrey performed better coming off of Tommy John surgery.

 

Vance Worley is likely a better pitcher than Kevin Correia. However, he has to prove it. At this point he doesn't deserve a spot in the rotation over Correia.

[TheLeviathan]

I never said toss them aside..

 

Because some here are confusing my concern, you are missing a key piece. If they don't make the team they will have to be DFA'd and there is zero chance they clear waivers. So, yes, they will be tossed aside. That's the unfortunate pickle and why I said earlier that if they had options this would be a non-issue. If they earned AAA and had that option - fine. But it's not an option so it changes the dynamic.

 

if they don't make the rotation they will prove their worth elsewhere. And we will have lost that potential for aging spare parts.

[kab21]

Diamond and Worley are one year removed from being MORE than capable. Shoulder injuries are what hurt them in part. Seems like a poor reason to cut bait.

 

If they are more than capable then they should be able to earn a roster spot. But I think the bigger picture of these signings is that the Twins don't have very much confidence in this trio. There's the possibility that a couple of these guys are more damaged than has been made public.

[TheLeviathan]

If they are more than capable then they should be able to earn a roster spot. But I think the bigger picture of these signings is that the Twins don't have very much confidence in this trio. There's the possibility that a couple of these guys are more damaged than has been made public.

 

There are four for one spot. After that they would be redundant in the bullpen if more than one made it. I don't see the Twins constructing their pen that way.

 

If they are damaged goods, that would be an acceptable reason to keep Correia over them. Otherwise, I think it's a mistake.

[Alex]

I think Leviathan's approach is dead on here, and I really don't get the people that simply want to let go of players that have had success (because they are out of options and had a bad year last year) when they are younger players with more upside. Especially when some of the young players we're talking about have had more success than a pitcher or two under contract. If that's the case, we should be cutting bait on most of the team that started last year with the exception of a few.

 

I appreciate making the rotation better through FA and am glad the Twins have done so to some extent. However, the key is to actually make the rotation better both immediately and in the long term.

 

We'll see if they've done that, and when these players are let go, we'll see if they could have helped the Twins and are players that end up being ones we complain about because they have success elsewhere.

 

Either way, it's very tough for me to see the way these players have been handled as a mistake in some way. Maybe they mishandled their option years and placement on the forty man roster. Maybe they didn't give them enough time in the majors to show what they had (or didn't) and thus couldn't even move them in a trade. Maybe they just did a poor job of developing these guys or drafting them in the first place.

[Tibs]

Because some here are confusing my concern, you are missing a key piece. If they don't make the team they will have to be DFA'd and there is zero chance they clear waivers. So, yes, they will be tossed aside. That's the unfortunate pickle and why I said earlier that if they had options this would be a non-issue. If they earned AAA and had that option - fine. But it's not an option so it changes the dynamic.

 

if they don't make the rotation they will prove their worth elsewhere. And we will have lost that potential for aging spare parts.

 

I'm not missing any pieces. I want the guys who perform the best to be in the rotation. Right now Kevin Correia is one of those guys. If those guys can't beat out Kevin Correia for the position, then why are you so concerned about losing them? Our pitching staff isn't going to be anything special this year. If they can't make this rotation, maybe it is best they go to a different team.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Castro would be the one, on a dream and a prayer. He had quite a drop-off in production last year, going from 2012 numbers of .283/.323/.430 to .245/.284/.347 in 2013. Agreed that he would "cost a lot more than players we no longer want." He's also locked in, with a team option for 2020.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

If Turner is not a fit in the 2014 draft, my guess is you're looking at some combination of Berrois, Thorpe, Polanco, or Kepler. Our SS of the future is going to cost a lot more that players we no longer want. I like Drew for 3 years, possibly Starlin Castro, and I understand Arizona has 2 SS's who are major league ready. Most likely it will be someone most of us have never heard of, but I can't envision Ryan heading back to semi-retirement without addressing our SS of the future.

 

Castro would be the one, on a dream and a prayer. He had quite a drop-off in production last year, going from 2012 numbers of .283/.323/.430 to .245/.284/.347 in 2013. Agreed that he would "cost a lot more than players we no longer want." He's also locked in, with a team option for 2020.

[cmathewson]

That's not a dream, that's a fantasy. He's the cornerstone of that franchise.

[Dman]

I'm not missing any pieces. I want the guys who perform the best to be in the rotation. Right now Kevin Correia is one of those guys. If those guys can't beat out Kevin Correia for the position, then why are you so concerned about losing them? Our pitching staff isn't going to be anything special this year. If they can't make this rotation, maybe it is best they go to a different team.

 

I think the issue is what if they all come to spring training and look good? Who are you going to give away for free? Maybe in the end all three of those guys could beat out Correia and you give one or two of them away. I don't think that is smart way to operate. We could end up giving a decent pitcher away and get noting in return. Certainly you can do that but wouldn't it be nice to get something for Worley a guy you Traded for instead of nothing? I am not a big Diamond fan but he was our best pitcher not that long ago. If Deduno is healthy there are lots of teams that would plug him into their rotation.

 

Maybe trader Terry has this all worked out and a trade or trades are coming and all this will be an exercise in futility.

 

On the flip side these guys might never be the pitchers they once were and we let them go anyway which sucks but happens. Right now there is no evidence of that. I agree with Leviathan. Hang onto these guys until you know for sure they are done.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to think he already has something in the works. I kind of assumed Gibson and Worley would be in the starting 5, but signing Pelfrey ended that. I'm guessing Ryan has someone lined up for KCs services or perhaps he has a taker for Diamond or Worley... who knows.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not missing any pieces. I want the guys who perform the best to be in the rotation. Right now Kevin Correia is one of those guys. If those guys can't beat out Kevin Correia for the position, then why are you so concerned about losing them? Our pitching staff isn't going to be anything special this year. If they can't make this rotation, maybe it is best they go to a different team.

 

Well, for one I'm unconvinced there would be genuine competition with Correia. its more that he has a cemented spot. if I felt a genuine five man competition would happen for two spots - fine. BUt its more like four for one.

 

As for why I'm concerned - Diamond, Deduno, and Worley have all been significantly better than Correia in the very recent past and none of them are already in their decline phase. Correia is done after this year with the Twins. Worley, Diamond, and Deduno all possess FAR more longterm potential.

 

Unless you think we are a playoff contender this coming year (we aren't right now), then you need to invest innings in the future. Not waste them on old, marginal players. Best part of that is if Worley and Diamond bounce back to recent above average pitching.....you have a damn fine staff and A LOT more resale value.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd flip the question.....how on earth do you make sense of cutting 25 year olds with major league success for marginal declining players based on ONE bad year?

 

Good thing we didn't listen to you about Dozier, Perkins, or dozens of others. Its silly and shortsighted.

[Dman]

It seems like just yesterday our fine GM was accused of being pathologically adverse to taking risks in the free agent market and now we are being told Worley, Diamond, and Deduno were the answer all the time. Try again.

 

Correct me if I am wrong but I think the issue most had with Worley and Diamond last year was the apparent projection that they were our number 1 and 2 starters. Worley was the opening day starter and most didn't believe he was even close to a number 1. He went on to prove most of the Twins Daily posters correct beyond their wildest imagination. He ruined TR's expectations for him and made himself virtually untradable. Seems like the best thing to do would be try and allow him gain value back for the organization instead of just dumping him.

 

I get your point though as Nolasco isn't really a number 1 either. I think we will have pitching issues again this year but I don't believe they will be as bad as last year. The offense on the other hand might be brutal this year unless several guys step up.

 

I am happy TR did get the Free Agent Monkey off his back. Hopefully those posts are gone for a while.

[John Bonnes]

Gentlemen, play nice.

 

Its certainly fair to say that it would be unfortunate to cut bait on some players who are young but facing struggles that young players can face.

 

It's also certainly fair to wonder that if they can't beat out Correia, just how valuable will they really be?

 

Either is defendable. What is not defendable is bickering and snide shots. Play nice.

[kab21]

Actually let's properly flip the question. Why are you so interested in giving scholarships (big league starting spots) to these guys? They aren't high paid but you're arguing that the Twins put themselves into a position where they are depending on a couple of these players in the rotation with the Albers of the world ready to rack up innings.

 

In absolutely no way whatsoever is stashing an extra starter in the bullpen redundant. Starters get injured or are ineffective all the time and pitching depth is always needed. Gibson spending two months in AAA does not bother me since he completely sucked last year. If all of the Twins starters are still healthy and throwing sub 4.50 ERA's (and Gibson is great as you expect) then the Twins have a wonderful problem and something that they haven't had for half a decade (a decent rotation with minor league depth).

 

I think Dozier and Perkins are excellent examples against your point actually. Nobody is advocating outright cutting of all 3 of them. It's pretty likely that one is the 5th starter and the other is in the bullpen. Maybe one of them gets cut but I think at least one of them has a significant injury and could spend some time on the DL (or sucks enough to be cut). Unlike a starting pitcher Dozier wasn't given a starting position in April. He was in a battle with Florimon/Escobar/Carroll for playing time at 2B/SS. Perkins had one decent year like and then he sucked just like these guys. The difference is that he wasn't given a rotation spot after that awful year and was moved to the bullpen. And you are 100% against moving any of these guys to the bullpen even it's temporary.

 

Just to be clear the main argument here is that you can never have too much pitching. Having an extra starter in the bullpen and Gibson in AAA is significantly better than not having an extra starter in the bullpen and Gibson starting the year in the majors. In that scenario you are required to either rush Meyer or pitch the Albers of the world. that scenario sucks.

[stringer bell]

I think it is nearly a given that at least one guy in the Opening Day 2014 bullpen is viewed as a starter who lost out in the competition in Spring Training. I think that is healthy for the ball club and won't hurt the player or players long term. What such a move will do is limit the bullpen to six pitchers (counting Duensing and Swarzak) who are considered relievers. It may open up the possibility of a trade for an outfielder or perhaps an LH hitting infielder who could take at-bats from Plouffe or Dozier.

[TheLeviathan]

The main argument has fell victim to one persons derailing. LEts hit the actual main points:

 

1) the odds of Correia's spot on this team being subject to competition is unlikely. so I don't believe that these guys are going to have to beat him out, I believe the Twins (fairly or not) don't view him as on the bubble. That leaves four guys for one spot.

 

2) This is not an indictment of "too much pitching" or the offseason. Write those three guys in as locks. the problem is Correia's marginal butt blocking young, higher upside gambles. especially since its unlikely we can keep all of them. There are a finite number of spots for guys with no options. SO the real issue is would you rather have Correia or Diamond/Worley.

 

3) if stashing them in the bullpen was an option...fine. But again I doubt the Twins construct their pen with that many long relief guys. Again I am approaching this practically not fantasy.

 

4) This is about Correia costing us a good young player. SO trade him, cut him, mysteriously lose him in the woods, replace him with Arroyo or someone better, or anything that removes him from blocking a better gamble.

GIve me youth and upside 100% of the time. Especially when your main argument is that this young player had one tough year of adjustments likely caused by injury in both cases. Its the absolute worst kind of selling low.

[kab21]

So basically your entire point is focused on Correia?

 

Re #3) I think you should direct your ire at the rest long relief only guys if there isn't room to stash one of these pitchers in the bullpen for 1-2 months.

 

I also don't think any of these guys have much upside. Maybe they become younger versions of Correia but that doesn't seem very valuable.

[TheLeviathan]

So basically your entire point is focused on Correia?

 

Re #3) I think you should direct your ire at the rest long relief only guys if there isn't room to stash one of these pitchers in the bullpen for 1-2 months.

 

I also don't think any of these guys have much upside. Maybe they become younger versions of Correia but that doesn't seem very valuable.

 

I've been focused on Correia from step one, but no one has approached replying with any degree of fairness to my point so it's been lost.

 

im not convinced Diamond has a lot of upside but I would've said the same of Dozier not long ago. It's dangerous to give up on young players who had one dip in performance due to injury. Especially when they already have had major league success.

 

In the name of upgrades (Nolasco) or guys with rebound upside (Pelfrey and Hughes) I'm not concerned. When the roster squeezes and Correia survives at their expense? Yeah, that's a problem.

[GCTF]

. SO trade him, cut him, mysteriously lose him in the woods

 

For a fee I could "lose" Correia so that even B-Ref couldn't find him.

[Guest USAFChief]

"This is about Corriea costing us a good young player."

I thought it was about costing Worley, Deduno, or Diamond.

 

//ba dum tsssshh//

[Willihammer]

If a guy is good enough to start but is pushed into the pen, its likely he'll put up better k% and velocities (see "rule of 17"). That is the ideal scenario IMO. The Cardinals do this practically every year.

[TheLeviathan]

If a guy is good enough to start but is pushed into the pen, its likely he'll put up better k% and velocities (see "rule of 17"). That is the ideal scenario IMO. The Cardinals do this practically every year.

 

That may ultimately be the case, but I don't think right now is that time. We have at least one more lost season to audition these guys.

 

i know what Correia is - marginal to bad. I will take one more chance with a 25/26 year old to be better than that. Next year with Meyer and a better offense would be a different story.

[cmathewson]

I've been focused on Correia from step one, but no one has approached replying with any degree of fairness to my point so it's been lost.

 

im not convinced Diamond has a lot of upside but I would've said the same of Dozier not long ago. It's dangerous to give up on young players who had one dip in performance due to injury. Especially when they already have had major league success.

 

In the name of upgrades (Nolasco) or guys with rebound upside (Pelfrey and Hughes) I'm not concerned. When the roster squeezes and Correia survives at their expense? Yeah, that's a problem.

 

Selective reading. Early on, I wrote that he led the team in innings pitched and led all starters in WAR last year. That is not a worthless player.

[johnnydakota]

That may ultimately be the case, but I don't think right now is that time. We have at least one more lost season to audition these guys.

 

i know what Correia is - marginal to bad. I will take one more chance with a 25/26 year old to be better than that. Next year with Meyer and a better offense would be a different story.

Package him and a couple of bubble players along with a prospect or 2 and trade for JJ Hardy