Article: The Calm before the Storm

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2536-The-Calm-before-the-Storm

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Great article, very interesting to read. Im with you on thinking the twins have atleast 1 or 2 major moves on the way. I would have been all for signing Drew last year as I said multiple times last offseason but I firmly believe that his asking Price is a little to much. So I dont see that happening. I expect by friday night that the Twins will have signed either Garza or Arroyo. Im hoping we did not go an extra couple million on Pelfrey...There are other people who deserve his spot in the starting rotation I dont care if he is coming back from injury or not.

[Trevor0333]

Good summation of the climate so far, it really is suprising & you can't help but feel something big is building. If the Twins can sign Garza, this rotation is easily the 2nd best in the division. If the Tigers lose Sherzer next year, maybe even best in the Central. With all these pitching options coming to fruition the lack of offense is really becoming appearent.

 

If you take on Papelbons contract, Dominic Brown is clearly available for young controllable pitching. They need a #5 SP & a closer and don't have payroll available to even sign mid tier players.

 

A Corriea, May, Hicks, & Burton trade for Dominic Brown & Jonathon Papelbon makes a lot of sense for both teams. Heck they can have Worley &or Diamond if wanted as far as I'm concerned. Corriea & Burton are basically a wash salary wise for Papelbons contract in 2014. Also giving Philly a stop gap #5 & closer in Corriea & Burton with May back as a potential rotation option in 2015.

 

Browns power would be welcome in the lineup & come 2015 could rotate RF/DH with Arcia limiting both players defense while keeping both in the lineup. Buxton/Mauer/Brown/Sano/Arcia is quite the formidible top of the order. Follow that up with a Garza/Nolasco/Hughes/Meyer/Gibson potential rotation, the future would be very bright.

[ND-Fan]

You could be right and the Twins go out and sign whole starting pitching rotation this year. Its sounds incredible but then again some of Terry Ryans quotes of saying that pitching has to be dealt with and improved is priority and at the cost of others may be telling tale. I also don't think Twins want to go into all star game out of contention and not spent money on this team. I also think that cost of loosing is showing up in their financial projections and hurting the value of the brand.

I think the Twins want to get this team to 76 to 82 win team and the improvements they have made so far are only get them 68 to 72 win team. If they can get pitching to 76 to 82 win team with this offense they will have this year it means when these young prospects arrive and learn to produce this team could shoot to 87 to 92 win team in real hurry. It will also mean that they won't loose first couple of years when these kids are cheap and very good because the pitching talent isn't here to help them win. It looks to me the pitching talent is couple years behind the offense talent coming. So locking up pitching for next 3 years is priority if they are going to get extended run with these highly valued prospects.

[jwb1226]

Why are we not making a selection in the rule 5 draft?

[drock2190]

Why are we not making a selection in the rule 5 draft?

 

Full 40 man roster

[RedBull34]

Good summation of the climate so far, it really is suprising & you can't help but feel something big is building. If the Twins can sign Garza, this rotation is easily the 2nd best in the division. If the Tigers lose Sherzer next year, maybe even best in the Central. With all these pitching options coming to fruition the lack of offense is really becoming appearent.

 

If you take on Papelbons contract, Dominic Brown is clearly available for young controllable pitching. They need a #5 SP & a closer and don't have payroll available to even sign mid tier players.

 

A Corriea, May, Hicks, & Burton trade for Dominic Brown & Jonathon Papelbon makes a lot of sense for both teams. Heck they can have Worley &or Diamond if wanted as far as I'm concerned. Corriea & Burton are basically a wash salary wise for Papelbons contract in 2014. Also giving Philly a stop gap #5 & closer in Corriea & Burton with May back as a potential rotation option in 2015.

 

Browns power would be welcome in the lineup & come 2015 could rotate RF/DH with Arcia limiting both players defense while keeping both in the lineup. Buxton/Mauer/Brown/Sano/Arcia is quite the formidible top of the order. Follow that up with a Garza/Nolasco/Hughes/Meyer/Gibson potential rotation, the future would be very bright.

Except it is a terrible deal for the Twins. Dominic Brown's second half #'s are .270/.333/.390. He hit 4 HR's in the second half compared to 23 in the first. In matter of fact the only month he did anything in was May. If the Twins needed a streaky power hitting righty, they already got it. They just need to stick him in the outfield. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-can-domonic-brown-do-for-you/

[Marta Shearing]

If they signed garza, arroyo, and pelfrey, I'll run down the street naked.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm more inclined to believe it is the calm before the calm.

 

However, I would be ok being wrong and see the Twins spend exactly $100 million today on Garza (4/64) and Drew (3/36). Just for the record.

[jwb1226]

Full 40 man roster

Are there any good players out there? Probably not but I think we have a lot of dead weight on the 40

[Twins Twerp]

My gut says Arroyo for a 3rd a year. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Also, could the Twins waive someone from the 40 if they decide to take someone in the rule 5?

[beckmt]

If you want to go a different direction, how about a contract for Brian Roberts and move Dozier to SS. Really help the offense, Roberts was a plus defender and leadoff hitter when healthy. Also maybe Grady Sizemore. That would help the outfield if he is healthy.

[Winston Smith]

I don't get the Ryan love for Pelfrey. At his best he is a mediocre pitcher, at his best. Shouldn't we be spending the money on guys that may end up being good?

[Jim Crikket]

I don't get the Ryan love for Pelfrey. At his best he is a mediocre pitcher, at his best. Shouldn't we be spending the money on guys that may end up being good?

 

I'm ambivalent about Pelfrey. I probably wouldn't do that deal if I'm the GM, but I'm not going to have a fit if TR does bring him back.

 

But if you do think he could be a mediocre pitcher, then 2 yrs/$12 mil is not an unfair price. That's kind of the going rate for mediocre pitchers and mediocre is better than most of the pitchers that have started for the Twins recently (including Pelfrey, who fell short of mediocre last season).

 

I'm encouraged, though, that the Twins are engaging in conversations with Boras about his clients. It's about time they put an end to the "Twins won't sign Boras clients" BS.

 

I always felt that was more a matter of Boras wouldn't bother shopping his clients to the tight-fisted Twins than the other way around and if it takes giving Pelfrey another shot to convince Boras the Twins are worth talking to about his higher-profile clients, too, that's ok with me.

[nicksaviking]

I don't really like Pelfrey back, but of he and Arroyo, at least Pelfrey won't cost three years, and he won't be nearly 40 when the contract expires.

[JB_Iowa]

• Rhett Bollinger ‏@RhettBollinger 59s
  Ryan said he's not disappointed he didn't make a deal here at the Winter Meetings. Laid some groundwork. "I'm open for business," he said.
   
   
   
  
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  7:11 AM - 12 Dec 13

   

   

  Basically what Seth said.

   

  There'll be more to shake out. It was, however, nice to see the Twins make some moves before January (before December, actually). And a Christmas present or two would be good, too, Terry.

   

   

   

   

[JB_Iowa]

• Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 2m
  I asked Terry Ryan if he'd be fine to open 2014 w/current roster. "No," he said. "We still have a lot of work to do." #MNTwins
   
   
  
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  7:37 AM - 12 Dec 13

   

   

  Tag on this one should have been #goodnews

   

   

   

   

[BigTrane]

Great article, and this Hotstove certainly feels 'through the looking glass' time.

 

Want speculation? How 'bout this:

1) The recent feeding frenzy has everything to do with the free TV money coming, but I wonder if Uncle Bud sent a message that that extra loot had to show up on the field. Burnishing legacy? Would make a nice final chapter in his memoirs... sorry, kinda crypto-conspiracy there, but hey- you wanted speculation!

 

2) In a pre-hotstove post, I hoped that the prospect of the MLB/media spotlight during the All-Star game would motivate the ownership to, just maybe, try to avoid star turn in the spotlight wind up with the Twins as national laughingstock. If Pohlad likes to see himself as a successful businessman, then how can he square the idea of a losing team becoming a winning brand? Just toss this out since Mr. 'FA is not the way' TR has done a complete 180. Or, his Evil Twin (read: good) has taken his place. Again: 'Suzy Creamcheese, what's got into you'? Inquiring minds want to know...

 

3) What I'm reading form Japan indicates that Tanaka has been called to a meeting with Rakuten's Club Pres. next week. Certainly just a friendly chat, right? Fishing, how's the Missus... I strongly feel that he will not be posted, and if that's the case (and if the Twins has the same take) then making moves for more realistic SPs now makes a ton of sense. If Tanaka is not posted, then the sky's the limit for all remaining FA Sps. Kiss our hopes goodbye.

 

4) If we can get a couple of deals done in the next 1-2 days, then we're dealing from strength. Plenty of guys can be packaged in trades (Hendriks, for example) along with all those newly-2nd-rate arms.

 

5) The overall level of activity this offseason is unusual, if not unprecedented, especially for what was a basically thin market. With FAs being locked up for often too-long deals, upcoming FA markets won't be much better. Twins may be wise to put the money down now (which we actually have, for once) and repackage FA signings before they lapse with up-and-comers from the farm. Just because we sign a Hughes for 3 doesn't mean we have to keep him for 3, but it sure seems like have to be in the game now to get deals done in the future.

 

We'll see what pans out; the next week will be key. We've all felt let down before, but this (moment?) is very exciting.

[minn55441]

• Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 2m
  I asked Terry Ryan if he'd be fine to open 2014 w/current roster. "No," he said. "We still have a lot of work to do." #MNTwins
   
   
  7:37 AM - 12 Dec 13
  

 

I like the sound of message. It would be really nice to start next season with last years starters in Rochester, with the idea that they only get a chance in Minnesota when and if someone goes on the DL.

 

I'll be happy if he signs one more starter and an outfielder. Even if that starter turns out to be Pelfrey.

[cmb0252]

Some notes that suggest Seth is on to something:

 

Darren Wolfson:

Just spike w/ Jim Pohlad. I said hypothetically, can Terry add a player at $15M/year. He said yes. Some concern is years, not $$.

 

Nmike Berardino:

I asked Terry Ryan if he'd be fine to open 2014 w/current roster. "No," he said. "We still have a lot of work to do."

[Winston Smith]

I think Paul Maholm is still out there. He is left handed, which would be a plus, and is likely to get the same kind of contract that the Twins appear to have offered Pelfrey.

 

Pelfrey: 55-67, 4.48 era, whip 1.472 and an ERA+ of 90.

Maholm: 76-95, 4.28 era, whip 1.397 and an ERA+ of 96.

yes i know these stats aren't perfect!

 

IMO, Maholm would make more sense if he is still available. Having at least one LH starter would seem like a good idea.

[J-Dog Dungan]

Great article. It's good to know that someone else is feeling the same thing I am; I can just feel that the Twins are about to make a move. They have been too quiet for too long to say that nothing is going on. Hope to hear some good news soon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

IMO, Maholm would make more sense if he is still available. Having at least one LH starter would seem like a good idea.

 

Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.

[J-Dog Dungan]

Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.

And I just don't think Diamond is the lefty you really want in a top-flight rotation

[matthew0211]

Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.

 

How much of a necessity is having a lefty starter? Target Field appears to play well for RH hitters and is tougher on LH, so you'd think throwing RH starters out there would make sense. The Tigers seemed to do pretty well last year going with five righties.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How much of a necessity is having a lefty starter? Target Field appears to play well for RH hitters and is tougher on LH, so you'd think throwing RH starters out there would make sense. The Tigers seemed to do pretty well last year going with five righties.

 

It's not a requirement, just a nice thing to have. Some teams are stacked with lefties and it's nice to have the option of going different-handed against some of them during a series.

[nicksaviking]

It's not a requirement, just a nice thing to have. Some teams are stacked with lefties and it's nice to have the option of going different-handed against some of them during a series.

 

And not all games are played at Target Field.

 

At this point, if the Twins don't snag Garza, I think I'd prefer a cheap lotto ticket on a 1 or 1 and an option year deal. I think Floyd, Niemann and Santana would be pretty exciting, and if we find later they can't cut it, well that's what all the depth is for. These kind of guys have a potential to bring a return at the trade deadline if healthy and have an outside chance at being worth a qualifying offer at year's end. They also have the potential to be the best arm on the staff.

[ashbury]

It just feels like a trade could happen at any time.[/Quote]

 

This is what I was hoping for. A 40-man-clearing move, to free up space for a rule-5 and a very good FA and a good spare part. Rule-5 didn't happen, obviously.

 

But I still hope that during the meetings Terry let it be known to teams with 40-man space, "here's 6 guys - pick any 2, any 3 - offer me a legitimate #8-12 non-40-man prospect in return, and we can do business", and go from there. If nothing materializes, so be it - DFA the worst guy later on to make room, as need be. But I suspect there is residual value in a few of the guys who only amount to clutter on a rebuilding team.

[johnnydakota]

 

I like the sound of message. It would be really nice to start next season with last years starters in Rochester, with the idea that they only get a chance in Minnesota when and if someone goes on the DL.

 

I'll be happy if he signs one more starter and an outfielder. Even if that starter turns out to be Pelfrey.

 

I would be happier if last years starters were in San diego , and we had a couple of there Pitching prospects in Rochester

[johnnydakota]

It cant be stated enough , if we are going to add any more pitchers, they need to be an upgrade over what we have already...and there is only a handful that fit that discription.

we have the mid-back end of the rotation filled, we dont need any more #4 types,

If your going to sign Pelfrey , why not sign Scott baker? Doesnt his career numbers show he is a better chance at being a #3 type pitcher?