Never Happening, But...

[jokin]

I don't disagree that the Twins haven't been as aggressive as they should during their better seasons.

 

What I liked about the post is the implication that subtracting cheap "wins" for a few additional expensive "wins" doesn't make much sense when your team is probably going to struggle to cross the 80 win threshold.

 

If you're a 90 win team looking to shoot for a 95 win season, these moves make more sense. When you're a 66 win team looking to cross into the realm of respectability, it makes far less sense to trade cheap seasons and wins for a couple of essentially pointless expensive wins in the short-term.

 

If we knew which prospects would provide cheap wins and which would flounder, then this wouldn't be a conversation... On the other hand, no GM would trade for those floundering prospects, either. But when your team needs as many cheap wins as possible just to get to the .500 mark, you want all those prospects, knowing some will fail while others will succeed.

 

It can be argued that these types of moves are difficult-to-impossible to craft all into one seasson and therefore shouldn't be looked upon merely as short-term, feel-good, 66-win- to-72-win transactions. Only so much elite talent becomes available each season. As Levi brought up, the Tigers fleeced the Marlins by dangling oodles of prospects and then ponied up big bucks to Cabrera, it took the Tigers Four Years after acquiring Cabrera before they even made the playoffs again. But ask Dombrowski if it was still worth the few additional expensive wins in the short-term that Cabrera provided in the interim seasons of 2008-2010 when the Tigers clearly "failed". (Which is why a deal for Giancrlo Stanton for prospects should have been more aggresively pursued with the Marlins).

[Trautmann13]

I would love to see Price in a Twins uniform. But we would have to give up WAY to much. Even in a hypothetical world where Tampa wont demand Buxton, Sano, or Meyer, we would have to give up the rest of our farm system and half the Major League club to get him. Love to see him here, but we cant afford to loose what we have

[kab21]

I don't disagree that the Twins haven't been as aggressive as they should during their better seasons.

 

What I liked about the post is the implication that subtracting cheap "wins" for a few additional expensive "wins" doesn't make much sense when your team is probably going to struggle to cross the 80 win threshold.

 

If you're a 90 win team looking to shoot for a 95 win season, these moves make more sense. When you're a 66 win team looking to cross into the realm of respectability, it makes far less sense to trade cheap seasons and wins for a couple of essentially pointless expensive wins in the short-term.

 

If we knew which prospects would provide cheap wins and which would flounder, then this wouldn't be a conversation... On the other hand, no GM would trade for those floundering prospects, either. But when your team needs as many cheap wins as possible just to get to the .500 mark, you want all those prospects, knowing some will fail while others will succeed.

 

This all depends on how fast you think Price will decline. I think he has 4-5 really good seasons left. And I'm talking about at least near ace (or ace) level seasons. At the point he declines Mauer's elite time will be over and Sano/Buxton will be halfway through their arb years.

 

It's risky but the perfect storm for the Twins is to pair up Sano/Buxton with Mauer (as a near elite player) and make a strong push. 2014 is going to be a year where 80 wins is likely even with Price but 2015/2016 could be the time that the Twins are going for 90+ wins. It will take some luck (like Sano and/or Buxton hitting their potential) but Price will still be in his prime.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This all depends on how fast you think Price will decline. I think he has 4-5 really good seasons left. And I'm talking about at least near ace (or ace) level seasons. At the point he declines Mauer's elite time will be over and Sano/Buxton will be halfway through their arb years.

 

It's risky but the perfect storm for the Twins is to pair up Sano/Buxton with Mauer (as a near elite player) and make a strong push. 2014 is going to be a year where 80 wins is likely even with Price but 2015/2016 could be the time that the Twins are going for 90+ wins. It will take some luck (like Sano and/or Buxton hitting their potential) but Price will still be in his prime.

 

Which is fine and dandy except that it's unlikely the Twins will get Price without giving up one of Sano and Buxton.

 

At the end of the day, you're looking at a Myers/Shields situation. In the short term, giving up 2.5 wins and $500k for 4.5 wins and $12m. In the long term, you could be looking at giving up as many as 20 wins for Myers' arb seasons for ~9 wins in Shields.

 

A good idea if you're making a push for the playoffs. A historically awful idea if you're not even an 80 win team yet.

 

One key component of the Myers/Shields trade that many seem to ignore is that Santana pitched out of his goddamned mind and the Royals still missed the playoffs. Now Santana is gone and the Royals look worse on paper than they did in 2013. They gave up six years of what looks to be an incredibly valuable player for a guy who didn't get them to the playoffs because they had too many hurdles to overcome, too many questions on the roster, to compete in 2013.

[kab21]

Which is fine and dandy except that it's unlikely the Twins will get Price without giving up one of Sano and Buxton.

 

At the end of the day, you're looking at a Myers/Shields situation. In the short term, giving up 2.5 wins and $500k for 4.5 wins and $12m. In the long term, you could be looking at giving up as many as 20 wins for Myers' arb seasons for ~9 wins in Shields.

 

A good idea if you're making a push for the playoffs. A historically awful idea if you're not even an 80 win team yet.

 

That's possible (Sano or Buxton need to be included) but several people (most) have specifically said that they wouldn't deal Meyer+ for Price. That's the part that is just silly. Additionally the comparisons to the Myers/Shields trade isn't very good. Price is better, younger and an extension would be a requirement. The extension part changes the WAR math considerably.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's possible (Sano or Buxton need to be included) but several people (most) have specifically said that they wouldn't deal Meyer+ for Price. That's the part that is just silly. Additionally the comparisons to the Myers/Shields trade isn't very good. Price is better, younger and an extension would be a requirement. The extension part changes the WAR math considerably.

 

Right now, I wouldn't trade Meyer for Price. Not because I think it's an unfair deal (it certainly isn't) but because it's likely the Twins still miss the playoffs with Price on the roster, at least in 2014. And I'm not going to speculate trade+extension. Those rarely happen, require many moving parts to agree to terms, and I haven't heard anything about Price wanting an extension.

 

Say it's 2015. The Twins are an 87 win team and need an ace. Stewart is lighting up the minor leagues. At that point, trading for an ace like Price (the 2015 version of an ace with arb years) makes sense. The immediate win value offsets the six years of Stewart.

 

But right now? No, not so much.

[Jdosen]

Trading Sano, Buxton, or Meyer for Price would infuriate me to no end. Not that Price isn't an elite pitcher, but he isn't worth that price for the Twins at this point. You make a deal like that when you are trying to go from 88 to 94 wins, not to try and go from 66 to 72.

 

Like previous posters have said, it would be a Dayton Moore deal which to me seemed like a deal to try and make a "run at a postseason" (not a pennant, but an appearance, which doesn't do much for me), and save a job.

[JP3700]

Except it is inaccurate. The Twins have an entire army of Brian Doziers coming up from the minors. It's likely that half of the starting lineup is pre arb or in their cheap arb years for the foreseeable future. The same goes for the bullpen. It's almost like the situation where JP suggested that Price makes sense.

 

Additionally the Twins aren't capped at 100M. They have already exceeded that and that was before a bunch of new money flowed into the game.

 

The other consideration is how do you go about building a championship team. One of the key components to a championship contender is having 1 (or even 2) aces. There are basically 2 ways to acquire an ace. One is to develop them and just cross your fingers hoping that they turn out and the other to trade for or sign a big name FA. Right now I'm glad the Twins have at least found some great minor league arms with that type of potential but I'm more the type that likes an almost sure thing like Price. Meyer looks great but I have thought that about so many pitching prospects (I'm a fanatical minors follower) And many of those busted or took 2-4 years to figure it out.

 

Some prospects hit and some bust but this board's cup is violently spilling over with prospect optimism right now. Being unwilling to trade a good but not elite pitching prospect for one of the top pitchers in the game is just silly provided that the Twins can afford a mega extension (they can easily) and Price is willing to sign that extension.

 

Wow, a whole army? We have an army of 3+ win players coming up from the minors? Wow, let me get my world series tickets now. See you at the parade!

 

Then you go on to mention that some prospects bust and how people are violently optimistic on our prospects. Which one is it? Do you assume our propects will be 3+ win players or are you realistic about our prospects?

 

Just to give you an idea. Jurickson Profar. The consensus #1 prospect going into 2013, just put up a -0.4 WAR season.

 

I'm all for being aggressive. In my blueprint, I had the Twins signing Max Scherzer to a 7 year deal next offseason. I understand that there is money, and we have a healthy amount of impact prospects. There should be a good 6-8 year window of success coming up. Trading several of those prospects that you will likely need during that window, is counter productive.

[JP3700]

Here was an out of the box idea I threw out years ago (2010 offseason) on the BYTO board. there of course was 0% chance of the front office pursuing it. Halladay was on the block with one year left and the Twins had what looked like a strong team. I proposed a Hicks/Gibson (would have needed to be a PTBNL) for Halladay trade. Halladay was of course traded that offseason to the Phillies and signed an extension. He also was ridiculously valuable the first two years (14 WAR combined) before his shoulder was wrecked. Overwhelming the board was against it because Gibson and Hicks were so valuable as cost controlled prospects. 4 years later they haven't done anything yet.

 

I just wanted to add that if I was around for that post, I would have fully supported your idea. Just like if the Twins were coming off an 87 win season in 2013, I'd support trading for Price.

[TheLeviathan]

Fair enough. I don't think we're really disagreeing here. My only sticking point is timing.

 

If the 2014 Twins win 85 games, then it's time to start exploring trade options and prospect trades. At 85 wins, they'll have several cheap players contributing on the roster, making some of those prospects expendable.

 

In sentiment we agree, I think my bar is a bit lower. If Sano comes up and looks like what we all want him to be, Buxton takes that next step that we can anticipate a 2015 debut, and the team flirts with .500 - I look to be aggressive.

 

But reasonable people can disagree about timing, there are good arguments either way. The whole "surplus value" thing is utterly meaningless to me once we've concentrated on the things that matter.

[jokin]

Right now, I wouldn't trade Meyer for Price. Not because I think it's an unfair deal (it certainly isn't) but because it's likely the Twins still miss the playoffs with Price on the roster, at least in 2014. And I'm not going to speculate trade+extension. Those rarely happen, require many moving parts to agree to terms, and I haven't heard anything about Price wanting an extension.

 

Say it's 2015. The Twins are an 87 win team and need an ace. Stewart is lighting up the minor leagues. At that point, trading for an ace like Price (the 2015 version of an ace with arb years) makes sense. The immediate win value offsets the six years of Stewart.

 

But right now? No, not so much.

 

You're still focusing on the short-term implications almost exclusively. Extensions after trades do happen, even the Twins (see Pavano, Carl). Price would pitch most of the 2020 season at age 34- this was the age of Carl Pavano when the Twins re-signed him! If (and I know it's a big if), if the Twins could go into this deal knowing they are near-certain to get Price locked up until 2020, you would have your Ace that sets you up to make a legit run each and every one of those 7 years, starting even in 2014 as a very fringy worst-to-first contender (ala 1990-1991).

[cmb0252]

That's possible (Sano or Buxton need to be included) but several people (most) have specifically said that they wouldn't deal Meyer+ for Price. That's the part that is just silly. Additionally the comparisons to the Myers/Shields trade isn't very good. Price is better, younger and an extension would be a requirement. The extension part changes the WAR math considerably.

 

I wouldn't want to trade Meyer for Price, not because of value, but because we need both in our pitching rotation. If we already had one top of the rotation starter and just needed an ace? Heck yeah. Price, Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes, Correia is a solid rotation. Price, Meyer, Nolassco, Gibson, Hughes is a nasty rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

Didn't the Red Sox just go from being awful to winning it all? It is a fallacy you should wait for some perfect storm you make your perfect storm. Assuming Price is great for four years, why would you not wan him paired up with peak Mauer? This is exactly why the last Ryan run was a waste, because he was always waiting for something, instead of making something happen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You're still focusing on the short-term implications almost exclusively. Extensions after trades do happen, even the Twins (see Pavano, Carl). Price would pitch most of the 2020 season at age 34- this was the age of Carl Pavano when the Twins re-signed him! If (and I know it's a big if), if the Twins could go into this deal knowing they are near-certain to get Price locked up until 2020, you would have your Ace that sets you up to make a legit run each and every one of those 7 years, starting even in 2014 as a very fringy worst-to-first contender (ala 1990-1991).

 

I'm focusing on the short-term implications because anything beyond that involves a lot of speculation. Sure, an extension is possible. It's also possible Price might hate Minnesota and want to leave immediately. He might want to be in a warmer climate. He might want to be closer to his family (wherever they may be, I don't know).

 

Or he may want to stay here. But to assume that an extension is possible is starting to create a chain of "what-ifs" that become increasingly difficult to rationalize.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Didn't the Red Sox just go from being awful to winning it all? It is a fallacy you should wait for some perfect storm you make your perfect storm. Assuming Price is great for four years, why would you not wan him paired up with peak Mauer? This is exactly why the last Ryan run was a waste, because he was always waiting for something, instead of making something happen.

 

There's a good chance he'll be great for four years.

 

But the Twins will only have him under contract for two years.

 

Does anyone here have any information that leads one to believe that David Price wants an extension in the next 12 months?

[Thrylos]

The extension part changes the WAR math considerably.

 

So you think that a 5/$125-150M extension (on top of his current contract) would make sense for the Twins? Because that is what it would take. And we are talking about a guy whose FB velocity dropped 2 mph last season and K% dropped 4 points. I'd have a hard time making such a commitment, plus the players.

[jokin]

I'm focusing on the short-term implications because anything beyond that involves a lot of speculation. Sure, an extension is possible. It's also possible Price might hate Minnesota and want to leave immediately. He might want to be in a warmer climate. He might want to be closer to his family (wherever they may be, I don't know).

 

Or he may want to stay here. But to assume that an extension is possible is starting to create a chain of "what-ifs" that become increasingly difficult to rationalize.

 

Doesn't it just take a phone call to his agent?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Doesn't it just take a phone call to his agent?

 

Only after you've negotiated a trade with the Rays and have been given permission to speak to David Price by their front office. Then you can start negotiating with Price and find out how he feels about an extension.

 

Negotiating the trade is hard enough, especially when you know that the Rays' opening offer is going to be Byron Buxton in a straight swap.

 

But that's not really my point... My point is that, as fans, it's entirely pointless to speculate about something so complex. We don't know if the Rays would be willing to back off wanting Buxton for Price. We don't know if Price wants an extension. We don't know if Price wants an extension in Minnesota. Under the best of circumstances, speculating about a specific player-for-player swap is folly... Add in a hypothetical extension only makes the proposed trade less likely.

[jokin]

So you think that a 5/$125-150M extension (on top of his current contract) would make sense for the Twins? Because that is what it would take. And we are talking about a guy whose FB velocity dropped 2 mph last season and K% dropped 4 points. I'd have a hard time making such a commitment, plus the players.

 

If it's strictly a non-career threatening injury, than absolutely, you'd have yourself a bargain. (FWIW, I saw Price pitch on his rehab in Florida last summer, his velocity and mechanics looked just fine- does anyone have data on his velocity after his return from the DL?). The evidence doesn't suggest that his career has been derailed. Coming back from his injury, the data suggests that Price still has it. Although his K/9 dropped to 7.10 post-injury, this number is only one K below his career average of 8.10--- and some of that K% drop you alluded to is at least partly related to the career high BABIP of .298. Price's WHIP after the injury was 1.00 (vs. career WHIP of 1.16) with an ERA of 2.87. Furthermore, there is even more evidence that his control took a major uptick- his K/BB was 5.59 after the injury, far higher than his career # (3.06).

 

The evidence suggests that Price will be fine, and that he'll likely end up on a team like the Nats or Red Sox, teams with the type of prospects the Rays presumably covet in a deal like this.

[Thrylos]

some of that K% drop you alluded to is at least partly related to the career high BABIP of .298.

 

No way

 

Ks are not balls in play, so they are not counted in the BABIP...

 

So you feel that the Twins will get a bargain and will be able to do much if they have $70M committed on 3 players (Mauer, Nolasco and Price) for the next 4 seasons?

[jokin]

Only after you've negotiated a trade with the Rays and have been given permission to speak to David Price by their front office. Then you can start negotiating with Price and find out how he feels about an extension.

 

Negotiating the trade is hard enough, especially when you know that the Rays' opening offer is going to be Byron Buxton in a straight swap.

 

But that's not really my point... My point is that, as fans, it's entirely pointless to speculate about something so complex. We don't know if the Rays would be willing to back off wanting Buxton for Price. We don't know if Price wants an extension. We don't know if Price wants an extension in Minnesota. Under the best of circumstances, speculating about a specific player-for-player swap is folly... Add in a hypothetical extension only makes the proposed trade less likely.

 

I totally agree that the Rays have a strong track record that indicates that they would best the Twins in a trade for Price, but Terry Ryan isn't near foolish enough to go all Dayton Moore and trade Buxton for Price. Now Meyer for Price- or Price-equivalent elsewhere- (plus the extra player accoutrements less Sano/Buxton) is a model the Twins should at least pursue.

 

Are there strict rules for "tampering" charges when completing a trade like this? It seems like both sides have an interest in completing the deal, and a team like the Rays would not necessarily have a problem with the prospective team acquiring Price inquiring with his agent about the willingness to sign an extension before the deal is finalized.

[jokin]

No way

 

Ks are not balls in play, so they are not counted in the BABIP...

 

So you feel that the Twins will get a bargain and will be able to do much if they have $70M committed on 3 players (Mauer, Nolasco and Price) for the next 4 seasons?

 

Yes, but isn't K% based on a percentage of Ks per total number of batters faced? (SO/TBF)

 

And, in looking at that $70M number on 3 guys over 4 years, that would still leave them well under the 2011 payroll number, wouldn't it?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Are there strict rules for "tampering" charges when completing a trade like this? It seems like both sides have an interest in completing the deal, and a team like the Rays would not necessarily have a problem with the prospective team acquiring Price inquiring with his agent about the willingness to sign an extension before the deal is finalized.

 

There are strict tampering rules in that the Twins (or any other team) may not contact the agent or player without expressed consent from that player's current team.

 

The Rays would probably waive that request but not until they had a deal solidified, methinks.

[jokin]

There are strict tampering rules in that the Twins (or any other team) may not contact the agent or player without expressed consent from that player's current team.

The Rays would probably waive that request but not until they had a deal solidified, methinks.

 

Which suggests to me that things are not as complex as you suggest, should the Rays be incentivized in making the deal happen by really coveting a Meyer/Rosario, et al, package, they might very well let the Twins proceed with the Twins contacting the agent before the ink is on the dotted line.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Which suggests to me that things are not as complex as you suggest, should the Rays be incentivized in making the deal happen by really coveting a Meyer/Rosario, et al, package, they might very well let the Twins proceed with the Twins contacting the agent before the ink is on the dotted line.

 

It's not terribly complex for the teams to actually accomplish a trade-and-sign, it's complex for fans to speculate finite details of a hypothetical trade-and-sign when they have no idea what the trading team wants, what the other wants in return, and whether the player is interested in an extension in the first place.

 

That's my point. We don't even know if the Twins and Rays could reach an agreement because we don't know what one will demand and what the other is willing to give up. Adding a hypothetical extension into that equation just muddies an already increasingly-unrealistic scenario.

[Thrylos]

Yes, but isn't K% based on a percentage of Ks per total number of batters faced? (SO/TBF)

 

And, in looking at that $70M number on 3 guys over 4 years, that would still leave them well under the 2011 payroll number, wouldn't it?

 

a. An increase in BABIP indeed means that he faced more batters. He just struck them out at a lesser rate than in 2012. K% is a rate thing.

 

b. Yeah it would, but a team needs 22 more guys and you hope that some of them would be paid more than the minimum and you hope that you can carry 3-4 more good (read expensive) guys. I'd rather see them spend that $30M for 3 or 4 guys who would play 150+ games each rather than a guy who can impact only 30 some games...

[Major League Ready]

Didn't the Red Sox just go from being awful to winning it all? It is a fallacy you should wait for some perfect storm you make your perfect storm. Assuming Price is great for four years, why would you not wan him paired up with peak Mauer? This is exactly why the last Ryan run was a waste, because he was always waiting for something, instead of making something happen.

 

Do you think the Twins scenario is even remotely the same as the scenario in Boston? It seems to me you have chosen to argue a point based on a situation you are very well aware is not parallel and is not representative.

 

Giving up top prospects for Price at this point would make the Will Meyers trade look genius in comparison.

[Brock Beauchamp]

a. An increase in BABIP indeed means that he faced more batters. He just struck them out at a lesser rate than in 2012. K% is a rate thing.

 

Yep, which is why K% is a better metric than K/9.

[JP3700]

The whole "surplus value" thing is utterly meaningless to me once we've concentrated on the things that matter.

 

Surplus value completely matters. It's part of team building. Especially to small and mid market teams. Teams like that need to project surplus value to compete. The goal is to try to add as many wins to your roster as possible, within your budget.

 

The Pirates made the playoffs this year because they received a huge amount of surplus value from their players. Free agents like Liriano and Martin were worth $25M+ over what they were making. $25M+ that a team like the Pirates can't afford to spend. If they had performed to the value of their salaries, the Pirates miss the playoffs. That doesn't even include the value they received from guys making the league minimum. Like Marte, Cole and Locke.

 

You can look across the league at any successful small to mid market team, and see the same thing. This is what you aim for.

 

This is why the Twins have completely fallen off. They are getting little to zero value out of their young, cost controlled players. This is why the Cardinals are holding on to their young, cost controlled players. They are needed to compete.

 

As I mentioned, you need to be a 40 WAR team, just to be in contention. That's $200M+ worth of value, depending on how much you value a win. That's why the large market teams, are at such a competitive advantage. They have more room for error, as they don't need as much surplus value out of their players.

[Major League Ready]

Surplus value completely matters. It's part of team building. Especially to small and mid market teams. Teams like that need to project surplus value to compete. The goal is to try to add as many wins to your roster as possible, within your budget.

 

The Pirates made the playoffs this year because they received a huge amount of surplus value from their players. Free agents like Liriano and Martin were worth $25M+ over what they were making. $25M+ that a team like the Pirates can't afford to spend. If they had performed to the value of their salaries, the Pirates miss the playoffs. That doesn't even include the value they received from guys making the league minimum. Like Marte, Cole and Locke.

 

You can look across the league at any successful small to mid market team, and see the same thing. This is what you aim for.

 

This is why the Twins have completely fallen off. They are getting little to zero value out of their young, cost controlled players. This is why the Cardinals are holding on to their young, cost controlled players. They are needed to compete.

 

As I mentioned, you need to be a 40 WAR team, just to be in contention. That's $200M+ worth of value, depending on how much you value a win. That's why the large market teams, are at such a competitive advantage. They have more room for error, as they don't need as much surplus value out of their players.

 

I agree. This is core concept in understanding the financial implications and requirements of building a winning team in a small or mid-market. It is a core concept to “moneyball” and it is core to the philosophies/practices that have allowed the As and Rays to compete with a fraction of the payroll of large market teams.

 

The Yankees and Dodgers can spend roughly $9M a player for the players on their 25 man roster assuming the remainder of the 40 man are minor league contracts which of course is not likely to be 100% accurate. Under the same terms, the Twins can spend around half that number. The As and Rays can spend 1/3 that number. You better believe what you have labeled here as “surplus value” is really important if you want to compete with the teams with a substantial financial advantage.

 

This basic premise is also the root of many fan’s frustration. For many fans, team spending is monopoly money. They do not want to hear about spending restrictions, risk mitigation, or any other concept that is an obstacle to the team acquiring the talent we would all love to have. The problem is that the people making the decisions are responsible for real money and the people who have earned the trust that goes with that responsibility invest 20, 30 or a hundred million dollars very carefully. The sentiment seen here of what the heck, spending it is better than the team owners profiting is not justification for poor investment, at least not for the people responsible for the expenditure and the people who pay their salaries.