Twins turn attention to Phil Hughes?

[kab21]

DFAing anyone would be a mistake. We'll need all these guys; we're likely to use as many as ten starters for various reasons. Having even mediocre depth at AAA is a boon, whether that be Worley or Diamond, both are worth holding onto, given their past success.

 

Not signing a better pitcher because we might have to DFA one of those guys is a BIGGER mistake. And some are claiming (probably true) that Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options so AAA can't happen for them.

[Brandon]

Instead of Trading for Bailey if we sign another SP (any number of them are still available) we could trade any of Gibson, Rosario, Theilbar, Swarzak, Pressly, Burton, Fien, Deunsing, Worely, Diamond, or even Corriea and even low A players galore for another starting pitcher. There are lots of trade scenarios for Tampa Bay and Chicago Cubs

[Oxtung]

Several people here seem to want a pitcher on a 2/15ish contract. I understand the reasoning and it makes some sense. My question though is why Hughes?

 

Kazmir was better across the board last season, K%, ERA, SIERA, xFIP, FIP and both WARs. He has shown in the past he is capable of putting together some really nice seasons, unlike Hughes, and he is left handed, again unlike Hughes. He is predicted to get about the same 2 year contract.

 

So what do people see in Hughes that they like better than Kazmir? Is it simply the injury history?

[jorgenswest]

Not signing a better pitcher because we might have to DFA one of those guys is a BIGGER mistake. And some are claiming (probably true) that Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options so AAA can't happen for them.

 

I agree with the addition significantly better.

 

However, the Twins must be confident that the pitcher is better over the next several years. The pitcher needs to have the upside of age or be projected for over 3 WAR for next year.

 

They can't sign a guy like a Pelfrey, Capuano or Arroyo. While they might make a one win difference next year, it isn't enough. This is the kind of decision that keeps teams in a cycle of mediocrity.

[Jim H]

I wasn't very clear in my last post. What I trying to say is that Hughes hasn't been good for 3 years. During those 3 years Deduno, Worley and Diamond have all had stretches, nearly a full year in Damond's case, where they have been much better than Hughes during this 3 year period.

 

And lets face it, even in his best year starting, Hughes was no top of the rotation pitcher. Does he have upside, of course. Is he likely to reach it? Well that is the question. As I have said, I can see why the Twins might try to sign him. If you can get him for a 2 year deal, in the $7 mil per year area, well that might be worth the gamble. The problem is, I don't know that he is all that likely to pitch better than at least one of Diamond, Worley and Deduno. Hughes probably could be better than any of them but if he couldn't do it with a good team behind him, will a change of scenery to what will likely be a much poorer team, at least the first year, really going to help him? It might be interesting to find out, but I guess I would rather expect him to struggle. I could be wrong, because he seems to have the talent.

[kab21]

Several people here seem to want a pitcher on a 2/15ish contract. I understand the reasoning and it makes some sense. My question though is why Hughes?

 

Kazmir was better across the board last season, K%, ERA, SIERA, xFIP, FIP and both WARs. He has shown in the past he is capable of putting together some really nice seasons, unlike Hughes, and he is left handed, again unlike Hughes. He is predicted to get about the same 2 year contract.

 

So what do people see in Hughes that they like better than Kazmir? Is it simply the injury history?

 

It's not really about Kazmir vs Hughes. Kazmir is a nice target also since he's expected to sign in the same price range. The biggest knock on Kazmir (and it's a big one) is that he was awful or completely out of the MLB (and MiLB) for 4 years before last season. But that's why he's available for relatively little.

 

I think I explained Hughes pretty well not long ago. He has raw talent and looks very similar to Homer bailey before he figured things out 2 years ago.

[TheLeviathan]

They can't sign a guy like a Pelfrey, Capuano or Arroyo. While they might make a one win difference next year, it isn't enough. This is the kind of decision that keeps teams in a cycle of mediocrity.

 

Adding a better pitcher and dumping a worse one doesn't continue a cycle of mediocrity. Clutching on to bad pitchers in the name of depth and ignoring better ones? Now that sounds like cyclical mediocrity to me. (Or worse)

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Hughes is the free agent gamble that I'd like Terry Ryan to make. AND if the gamble pays off, how much fun would it be to see the Twins face New York in the 2015 ALCS, with a pitching rotation that sets up Hughes to pitch against the Yankees at Target Field. C'mon, a guy can dream, can't he?

[sconnytwinsfan]

I'm a little concerned Hughes isn't looking for a one year payday, too. That said, I think it's impossible to ignore the negative effect that pitching for the Yankees can have on some pitchers. The press there is relentless! Pavano left and was productive. Burnett left and was productive.

 

Ideally...I'd like to see Ryan pay for Garza and sign Hughes to a one year deal with an option. With the Twins' cash situation for this year, I'd even be willing to overpay him for the one guaranteed year if it gives you the option to walk away after one year.

 

I think he knows that this park, this manager, this pitching coach are more his speed and expectations won't weigh as heavy. But the upside is too strong to not give it a whirl. How often do you get the option to sign this young of a free agent pitcher with upside?

[mudcat14]

According to LENIII, it's a done deal. 3/$24m deal. Overall, I like it a lot!

[stringer bell]

It's at MLBTraderumors.com I'm really surprised that the Twins have spent to this level.

[Old Twins Cap]

You got him my friend. Bon appetit.

[Jdosen]

If the Twins manage him correctly, I think this could turn into a pretty valuable signing.

 

His propensity to give up HR's has been beaten to the death on this board. Depending on how lucky he can get with HR/FB rate and what kind of defensive outfield is put out there when he pitches, this could be a really good thing going forward. It should be noted that his career GroundBall% is 33.6%, which is to say that he gives up a ton of flyballs, and a lower than league average amount of ground balls.

 

That being said, I think that during his starts, it is really, really important to field as good of a defensive outfield as possible. His starts would be good days to get Arcia in the DH spot if his defense doesn't improve, and a good day to get Willingham a day off.

[DaveW]

Yeah there is risk, but keep in mind the twins basically gave the same amount of money for Ramon Ortiz, Jason marquis and Sidney ponson combined. (I would bring up Blackburn if I was a lesser man)

[kab21]

It's at MLBTraderumors.com I'm really surprised that the Twins have spent to this level.

 

I know it's juvenile and against TD policy but I have a strong urge to bump every thread from the past year that said the Twins would never spend in FA.

 

There's risk to both Nolasco and Hughes but there's also upside. Without the risk the Twins likely would have been priced out of both of them.

[PseudoSABR]

Not signing a better pitcher because we might have to DFA one of those guys is a BIGGER mistake. And some are claiming (probably true) that Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options so AAA can't happen for them.

Well, I'm not arguing against that. Thanks. There's other methods of resolving roster problems. My point is this and only this: having Diamond, Worley and Deduno as your 6,7,8 guys is smart and will pay dividends in an arduous season.

[kab21]

Well, I'm not arguing against that. Thanks. There's other methods of resolving roster problems. My point is this and only this: having Diamond, Worley and Deduno as your 6,7,8 guys is smart and will pay dividends in arduous season.

 

Except that it's not possible for them to be the 6/7/8 guys. Maybe one of them can be the long man but other than that they are either in the rotation or DFA'd.

[PseudoSABR]

All three are out of option? I had no idea. My bad.

 

If that's the case, I imagine all three make the opening day roster, with Gibson in AAA.

 

And LEN3 is reporting the Twins still are trying to bring Pelfrey back. They must really be sour on Worley and Diamond.