Hypothetical: Would you have traded Joe Mauer for Fielder or Kinsler?

[Rick Niedermann]

They're both Twins Killers. But no way I trade Mauer for either of them. Not even close.

[gil4]

Not trying to be a jerk, but what other than Fielder being fat gives ANYONE any thought that his body wont hold up?

 

Really, I think that's enough. Fat players tend to decline early and suddenly, like George Scott, Mo Vaughn, and his dad. David Ortiz seems to be a decent counter-example, but I'm not sure he is in the same class of fat. I can't think of any others, but really there aren't that many fat players, period. (Pitchers are different.)

[John Bonnes]

I'm surprised. I'm a big Mauer guy, but I think I'd trade him for Fielder and definitely would with the $30M as part of the deal. But I'm also high on Fielder. I think the negative view towards him is driven mostly by a late season slump that extended into the postseason and the fact that we all tend not to trust fat people.

 

Im thinking a bit note here - with the other hitters coming up, who would fit the lineup better? Do you want a Fielder-Sano power platoon, or a more traditional 3/4 with a Mauer and Sano? Buxton as a 3 in front of the sluggers is fun to think about - but maybe I'd rather he's clear if them a bit, so he's more likely to steal bases. Hmmmm.....

[Guest USAFChief]

Mod note: "fat" is rather...inflammatory...may I suggest "husky."

[Riverbrian]

Kinsler... No way...

 

Fielder... With the Money... I'd pause for a bit before saying.... Naw... Joe is Minnesota.

[Alex]

I'm surprised. I'm a big Mauer guy, but I think I'd trade him for Fielder and definitely would with the $30M as part of the deal. But I'm also high on Fielder. I think the negative view towards him is driven mostly by a late season slump that extended into the postseason and the fact that we all tend not to trust fat people.

 

 

In athletes it can be pretty damning, and I am having trouble thinking of severely overweight position players that lasted.

 

As for slump, it was from May to July where he hit below .800 OPS. Then in August he had an .813 OPS and wrapped up Sept and Oct back to form with a .933 OPS.

 

But, overall, I agree with you that it's surprising there haven't been more people willing to commit. I'm not saying I would but with the mentality some have around Mauer and Fielder being a .900+ OPS career hitter and having more power I'm surprised that people wouldn't be willing to take the risk.

[DJL44]

No. I expect Mauer to have more value than Fielder at 1B in 2014 and going forward. Fielder is an AWFUL first baseman but I expect Mauer to compete for the gold glove.

[Jim Crikket]

I couldn't find a recent article on this. I saw just the one after the 2011 season and while he mentions Mauer, Mauer wasn't actually in the top 10. It's odd, too considering that he's actually been MORE productive since then.

 

Sorry, I should have included a link.

 

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/fielder-for-kinsler/#more-1092

[Trevor0333]

Mauer will age better as a hitter while being a pretty good defensive 1B. I would think about it though. The contracts are basically a wash. Kinsler I would have thought about a little more if not for Dozier/Rosario.

 

Its really not that far off though value wise especially considering the concussion fears.

[D. Hocking]

Mod note: "fat" is rather...inflammatory...may I suggest "husky."

 

When I was a kid who might have had a bit of a Prince Fielder build wore jeans that were literally sized "husky". Kids were made fun of if people knew they were wearing "husky" pants. The wonderful world of Tough Skin Jeans.

 

I don't really have anything new to add to the actual topic. I am a bit of a homer and think Mauer will probably age better, partially due to his build (unless his knees are already too damaged) and I think his hitting style won't suffer as much from getting older, plus he seems to have a pretty good baseball IQ where I think he will continue to make adjustments to remain effective.

[Alex]

Sorry, I should have included a link.

 

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/fielder-for-kinsler/#more-1092

 

No problem. Thanks for the link. I'd point, out, though, that that list is a list of the highest contracts by players 28 and older, not the 10 worst contracts. He doesn't list the Twins as a team that would redo a contract from that list, but I'm not actually so sure.

 

He he also has a clear bias that he seems to expect FA to be worth what they are paid , but that's nearly impossible with these contracts. Teams are often paying a premium price for a rare, unique talent and demand is driven up by competition. Not that I disagree with his premise overall, that these are very risky contracts but teams certainly hope they're the exception.

[John Bonnes]

Re: health - Let's not forget that Joe has had his share of health problems, far more than Fielder has. No doubt, a lot of that is related to catching, but he's had knee issues, back issues and first basemen (as we know) aren't immune from repeat concussions.

 

As for the fielding, according to UZR, Fielder was a whole 5 runs worse than the average 1B last year. The very best first baseman, Mike Napoli, was just 9 runs better than average. Fourteen runs isn't that hard to overcome. In fact, last year, Fielder outpaced Joe by 20 runs offensively according to Runs Created. And that was in Fielder's "down" year. It's hard to hurt or help your team much defensively at first base.

 

I don't know how strongly I feel about that trade, but I think if you talked to people nationally, they would side with Fielder in this equation, especially with the $30M. I could be wrong.

[SDTwinsFan]

No to both. As for the comments on Fielder: keep in mind this is a guy who has minimal role on D, plays for strikeout/flyball pitchers, and was I a line-up that was pretty solid. Mauer is: better defensively, plays (recently) for a horrible pitching staff, and was the best hitter on his team by miles. Add in the fact that Joe is a homegrown talent and it's just a huge no. Plus, I live in Detroit right now and everyone is really down on Fielder, and that is without them being on his case about conditioning.

 

My favorite part of this discussion, though, is seeing all the support for Mauer. It is easy to get mad about his production sometimes, but when it comes down to it, we all love him.

[Alex]

Re: health - Let's not forget that Joe has had his share of health problems, far more than Fielder has. No doubt, a lot of that is related to catching, but he's had knee issues, back issues and first basemen (as we know) aren't immune from repeat concussions.

 

As for the fielding, according to UZR, Fielder was a whole 5 runs worse than the average 1B last year. The very best first baseman, Mike Napoli, was just 9 runs better than average. Fourteen runs isn't that hard to overcome. In fact, last year, Fielder outpaced Joe by 20 runs offensively according to Runs Created. And that was in Fielder's "down" year. It's hard to hurt or help your team much defensively at first base.

 

I don't know how strongly I feel about that trade, but I think if you talked to people nationally, they would side with Fielder in this equation, especially with the $30M. I could be wrong.

 

Those are good points about Mauer but there are reasons to be optimistic about his health with a move to first base.

 

RC is a counting stat, so games played is a big factor. Joe was almost two points higher than Fielder in RC/27. If Fielder continues to be healthier, or rather Mauer continues to be unhealthy, then the counting aspect of that stat will become more relevant. However, if Mauer had played closer to 140 games last season he would have outpaced Fielder.

[Al Frankensteinbrenner]

Great topic to consider! Imagining hometown hero Mauer come in and play 9/10 games a year at Target Field for the loathed Tigers (not quite as bad as the Chi-Six, but darn close), coupled with the image of Fielder striking out again (and again) in the ALCS gives me great pause, even before considering the other factors (power, weight, durability, etc.). As long as Mauer's concussions don't cause a problem down the road (still a relatively big "if" to someone who remembers Morneau and Koskie's issues), I can't imagine trading him for anyone except that elite list of 10-12 players (like who Shane Wahl mentioned).

[gil4]

My favorite part of this discussion, though, is seeing all the support for Mauer. It is easy to get mad about his production sometimes, but when it comes down to it, we all love him.

 

When it comes down to it, he has been a great player. As much as we'd love every year to be like 2009 for him, he has still been very productive even when hitting 10 HRs.

[kab21]

If the Twins were a 85 win team that was looking to contend I would love to get a guy like Prince. Comparisons to his father are silly. They were both big but that's about where the comparison stops. Prince is a responsible adult while his father never made it out his teens mentally. I think Prince is going to have 5 really good years (better than last year) followed by a couple of average or worse ones to finish the contract. Overall he will earn his contract and I wouldn't have a problem paying it (with the Pohlad's money).

 

But I wouldn't trade Mauer for Fielder in the Twins current situation or in the hypothetical one.

 

I wouldn't even consider making the trade for Kinsler. That is justifiable only for financial reasons and the Twins have plenty of free money to spend.

[JB_Iowa]

As for the question itself, I find it interesting. I, too, wouldn't trade Mauer for Kinsler or Fielder but trading Mauer for one or more other players is not inconceivable to me.

[twinsfan34]

I'm surprised. I'm a big Mauer guy, but I think I'd trade him for Fielder and definitely would with the $30M as part of the deal. But I'm also high on Fielder. I think the negative view towards him is driven mostly by a late season slump that extended into the postseason and the fact that we all tend not to trust fat people.

 

Im thinking a bit note here - with the other hitters coming up, who would fit the lineup better? Do you want a Fielder-Sano power platoon, or a more traditional 3/4 with a Mauer and Sano? Buxton as a 3 in front of the sluggers is fun to think about - but maybe I'd rather he's clear if them a bit, so he's more likely to steal bases. Hmmmm.....

 

I'm with you John...big Mauer guy.

 

It got me thinking...

 

I'm curious about Miguel Cabrera will do without Fielder protecting him, every day. Curious who they'll find to bat behind Cabrera. My personal feeling that helped Cabrera tremendously to have his best seasons ever while at age 29 and 30 seasons instead of before.

 

Based on Prince's hit chart for 2013, he would have had 6 more HR if he had played in Rangers park, just on where the balls he hit landed. Hottter air in Texas (I live here in Dallas) would probably give another 3-4 HRs. So 6-10 HR to add to Prince's numbers, assuming the same hit chart in 2014 for the Rangers. So 31-35 HR.

 

I can't find his spray/hit chart for 2012.

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/prince-fielder/hitchart/289889?q=prince-fielder

 

And to the question. Kinsler, not in a million years.

 

Fielder...a maybe, if the Twins were still in the Homerdome...but, no, for the Twins at Target Field.

 

 

anyone know where to find 2012 or older spray charts?

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Prince had 1 thing to do with protecting Cabrera. It is not unusual for elite players to have great seasons at 29, 30, or beyond.

[LaBombo]

It's surprising how many people would at least consider the Fielder trade, thought I'd be in a tiny minority there.

 

It might be interesting to re-frame a Kinsler deal with the caveat that such a trade would come with a hypothetical assurance that the Twins would use the surplus payroll from the deal to help them sign their first legit free agent 1/2 starter ever to a long-term deal.

 

Also, does this thread get taken seriously or even created if Mauer is still catching? Gonna guess no.

[jokin]

It's surprising how many people would at least consider the Fielder trade, thought I'd be in a tiny minority there.

 

It might be interesting to re-frame a Kinsler deal with the caveat that such a trade would come with a hypothetical assurance that the Twins would use the surplus payroll from the deal to help them sign their first legit free agent 1/2 starter ever to a long-term deal.

 

Also, does this thread get taken seriously or even created if Mauer is still catching? Gonna guess no.

 

I guess I'm in that (not so) "tiny minority", as well.

 

And we know how well the social contracts replete with "hypothetical assurances" about surplus payrolls have gone for Twins fans since the advent of Target Field.

 

Still makes one wonder how much the Twins could have extracted from the Red Sox a year ago when Mauer was still a catcher. (Besides demanding and receiving a 1/2 starter in trade from the Red Sox, THEN, the accompanying payroll relief would have put them in position to be in the drivers seat for another one in the FA market, NOW).

[Alex]

Also, does this thread get taken seriously or even created if Mauer is still catching? Gonna guess no.

 

By some probably, but that's part of the reason I thought it a valid question now, and I wouldn't have even bothered if he was catching,

[Alex]

I guess I'm in that (not so) "tiny minority", as well.

 

 

Well, "consider" is far different from "for sure" and while I haven't run the numbers I think there's still more who would say "no."

 

Either way it's interesting in that Fielder has been a better overall hitter (900+ OPS) for his career than Mauer.

 

As to the last paragraph, it sort of shows that a player who has an unfriendly team contract, good hitter or no, is likely to get a similar player in return.

[John Bonnes]

FWIW, I just looked it up: Fielder has had 105 plate appearance in Target Field, 10th most in any ballpark. His OPS is 844, which seems a little low(career 916), especially given the level of Twins pitchers he's faced over the last couple years. He's hit .308, but his isolated power is less than his career average.

 

Given his career rate, one would expect 5 HR over 105 AB. Fielder has 3 in Target Field.

[ashbury]

his ops is 844, which seems a little low(career 916), especially given the level of twins pitchers he's faced over the last couple years.

 

ptc, ftw!

[North Dakota Twins Fan]

I wouldn't trade Mauer for either. I don't trust Prince Fielder's knees lasting much longer with all that weight.