Baseball Prospectus Goes Twins Crazy!

[Thrylos]

Agreed but the Twins can't sell high on Kepler this offseason. He'll need to put together a strong 2014 before his value rises again... 2013 wasn't horrible but it wasn't very good, either.

 

Totally agree. Trade deadline or off-season the earliest, but he has to be good at Fort Myers.

[markos]

I'm still having trouble wrapping my mind around the fact that very soon the major strength of the farm system is going to be pitching. Assuming Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, May and Meyer all graduate sometime in 2014, the remaining talent will almost certainly lean toward pitching, especially if they pick a pitcher with the #5 pick in June. Stewart, Berrios, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Felix and #5 pick should all be in the top-10 next year. Hopefully a few of them pan out as expected.

[gunnarthor]

I'm still having trouble wrapping my mind around the fact that very soon the major strength of the farm system is going to be pitching. Assuming Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, May and Meyer all graduate sometime in 2014, the remaining talent will almost certainly lean toward pitching, especially if they pick a pitcher with the #5 pick in June. Stewart, Berrios, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Felix and #5 pick should all be in the top-10 next year. Hopefully a few of them pan out as expected.

 

True, but they have a few hitting prospects that could blow up too - Polanco will certainly be on the top 10 lists but a guy like Minier could have a lot of helium in a year or two. And Harrison could be a top 8-10 type guy in a year or so. And the most interesting guy could be Walker. I don't think it happens but Parks noted in that podcast that Walker was a toolsy first division type if it all comes together.

[Brock Beauchamp]

True, but they have a few hitting prospects that could blow up too - Polanco will certainly be on the top 10 lists but a guy like Minier could have a lot of helium in a year or two. And Harrison could be a top 8-10 type guy in a year or so. And the most interesting guy could be Walker. I don't think it happens but Parks noted in that podcast that Walker was a toolsy first division type if it all comes together.

 

With a couple of breaks, the Twins could graduate a stellar class of prospects this season and still be a top five system in 2015/2016.

 

The mind reels at how many guys there are in this system who could be impact players. And thankfully, many of the "second wave" guys are pitchers.

[halfchest]

I'm still having trouble wrapping my mind around the fact that very soon the major strength of the farm system is going to be pitching. Assuming Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, May and Meyer all graduate sometime in 2014, the remaining talent will almost certainly lean toward pitching, especially if they pick a pitcher with the #5 pick in June. Stewart, Berrios, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Felix and #5 pick should all be in the top-10 next year. Hopefully a few of them pan out as expected.

 

That is pretty crazy. Seems like the smart move is to keep the system going that way too. Just seems cheaper/easier to pick up decent free agent position players than pitchers. I mean look at Willingham. Paid him 7 million a year compared to 5.5 million for Correia. Willingham was one of the top 5 outfield free agents that year right? Probably top 2-3 corner guys. Correia was kind of a bargain basement pitcher and he got dang near the same cash. Even though Correia worked out well it still shows that it's easier to get starting pitching from your own system and supplement position players with free agency. I'm pretty sure a little research would back this up too.

[markos]

That is pretty crazy. Seems like the smart move is to keep the system going that way too. Just seems cheaper/easier to pick up decent free agent position players than pitchers. I mean look at Willingham. Paid him 7 million a year compared to 5.5 million for Correia. Willingham was one of the top 5 outfield free agents that year right? Probably top 2-3 corner guys. Correia was kind of a bargain basement pitcher and he got dang near the same cash. Even though Correia worked out well it still shows that it's easier to get starting pitching from your own system and supplement position players with free agency. I'm pretty sure a little research would back this up too.

 

I don't have any research to back this up, but I think your logic is pretty sound for a number of reasons:

 

1) A smart platoon will allow a team to get above-average production from a position using flawed players. Teams cannot platoon a starting pitcher.

2) Sacrificing offensive production at one position can be made up by the 8 other spots in the lineup. Sacrificing starting pitching can be made up by only 4 other starters. On a per game basis it is even worse, as there is only one starting pitcher. The worst offensive player can be hidden in a lineup by batting ninth, while the worst starter still gets the ball every 5 days. Since almost every single team could use an average starter to upgrade at the 4th or 5th spots in the rotation, there is increased demand for free agent starting pitching.

3) From a team building perspective, a position prospect is going to replace your current starter at that same position. There is some flexibility with this, but in general a prospect at position X is going to replace the current player at position X. If the current player is good, then there isn't as much value gained in the upgrade. For pitchers, starting pitching prospect Y is going to replace the worst of the 5 starters, and it is much more likely that the 5th starter on a team is near replacement level.

[bird]

On the question of depth. The system is deep in high-impact prospects. It's deep in the way Seth describes, with non-stars and role players. It's deep in terms of variety: middle infielders, starters, catchers, etc, with really no big gaps anywhere. And it's very deep relative to the competition.

 

Take Cleveland, which will probably be described as a middle of the road system. Fewer impact prospects for sure but study their pitching prospects for a moment. The Twins have perhaps 5 pitching prospects (more?) better than their #5 overall prospect, Mitch Brown. Their #10 overall prospect is describes in very iffy terms as at best a back of the rotation guy. Our #8 and #9 prospects certainly are in a class above this guy, and we might be able to find quite a few prospects further down our rankings that most evaluators would like better. Oh, and Cleveland's system is better than that of both Chicago and Detroit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins have moderate success from non-traditional areas – Germany, Australia.

 

Outside of ~1 season of Balfour, what have the Twins really gotten from Germany, Australia, or the Netherlands? Granted, Kepler is still young, but I love the Thorpe hype so far, but it seems like the Twins worked in these markets because the stakes were low, possibly at the expense of competing in the more fertile baseball hotbeds in the Caribbean and Central America -- note that the Twins haven't really gotten much value from those countries either, at least before Sano and the more recent signings with the international spending cap. Arcia and Pinto came right before the end of TR's first tenure, I think, but other than that -- Luis Rivas? Juan Rincon?

[howieramone1406390264]

Outside of ~1 season of Balfour, what have the Twins really gotten from Germany, Australia, or the Netherlands? Granted, Kepler is still young, but I love the Thorpe hype so far, but it seems like the Twins worked in these markets because the stakes were low, possibly at the expense of competing in the more fertile baseball hotbeds in the Caribbean and Central America -- note that the Twins haven't really gotten much value from those countries either, at least before Sano and the more recent signings with the international spending cap. Arcia and Pinto came right before the end of TR's first tenure, I think, but other than that -- Luis Rivas? Juan Rincon?

 

Five on the list are International signings. Does it really matter to you what country they come from or who the GM was?

[gunnarthor]

Outside of ~1 season of Balfour, what have the Twins really gotten from Germany, Australia, or the Netherlands? Granted, Kepler is still young, but I love the Thorpe hype so far, but it seems like the Twins worked in these markets because the stakes were low, possibly at the expense of competing in the more fertile baseball hotbeds in the Caribbean and Central America -- note that the Twins haven't really gotten much value from those countries either, at least before Sano and the more recent signings with the international spending cap. Arcia and Pinto came right before the end of TR's first tenure, I think, but other than that -- Luis Rivas? Juan Rincon?

 

I was doing a quick write up of Parks' podcast. Those comments were his, not mine.

 

I believe the Twins have had 3 Aussies make the majors so far - Hughes, Balfour and Hendriks and besides Thorpe, I think we have one more Aussie in our top 50.

[nicksaviking]

I was doing a quick write up of Parks' podcast. Those comments were his, not mine.

 

I believe the Twins have had 3 Aussies make the majors so far - Hughes, Balfour and Hendriks and besides Thorpe, I think we have one more Aussie in our top 50.

 

Also Michael Nakamura, Brad Thomas and Glenn Williams. They've also had Justin Huber and Josh Spence in the system. 33 Aussies have played in the MLB and eight have played for the Twins. They certainly have their fingerprints on Australian baseball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Five on the list are International signings. Does it really matter to you what country they come from or who the GM was?

 

It matters that the Twins get a lot of credit for unearthing players in Australia, Germany, and the Netherlands, but as of 2013, they've received about a cumulative ~1 WAR for these efforts.

 

And I think the fact that we didn't sign ANY notable international players, even from the hotbeds of the Caribbean and Central America, until 2007, and didn't really try to do so consistently until the international spending cap in 2012, is further evidence the Twins front office shies away from competitive bidding, even when the costs are relatively low. That has some ramifications on other area of the franchise too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also Michael Nakamura, Brad Thomas and Glenn Williams. They've also had Justin Huber and Josh Spence in the system. 33 Aussies have played in the MLB and eight have played for the Twins. They certainly have their fingerprints on Australian baseball.

 

No doubt the Twins were/are a leader in Australia. What effects has it had on the MLB club? Why weren't the Twins more effective in Latin America?

[John Bonnes]

No doubt the Twins were/are a leader in Australia. What effects has it had on the MLB club? Why weren't the Twins more effective in Latin America?

 

I think the way Parks was talking about Australia, he was implying that the Twins have been doing relatively well there and it bodes well for them in the future if those areas continue to produce, as opposed to teams that will need to start from scratch there. Or maybe as a "these guys scout everywhere" anecdote. Overall, I don't think much WAR has come from any of those sources yet.

 

As for Latin America, the Twins readily admitted early last decade they were late to the party in the DR. That's why they went hard into Venezuela, building that academy, before the country destabilized.

 

I also know for a fact that they conducted an study by an internal group that became the basis for Jack Goin's group regarding where value can be found and concluded that it was in international signings. That's what paved the way for the Sano signing. That might be part of why things heated up. Unfortunately, it also happened just before the signing limits.

[gunnarthor]

It matters that the Twins get a lot of credit for unearthing players in Australia, Germany, and the Netherlands, but as of 2013, they've received about a cumulative ~1 WAR for these efforts.

 

And I think the fact that we didn't sign ANY notable international players, even from the hotbeds of the Caribbean and Central America, until 2007, and didn't really try to do so consistently until the international spending cap in 2012, is further evidence the Twins front office shies away from competitive bidding, even when the costs are relatively low. That has some ramifications on other area of the franchise too.

 

Our financial system is a lot different now than it was in 2007. The Twins drafted under slot in many of those years so I'm not sure we should be ripping Parks' conclusion based on things that happened 6 years ago (and we did sign some pretty good guys before that, including Wilson Ramos in 2004).

 

Additionally, what is the pay off you're looking for? The team scouted in Europe heavily enough to sign Van Mil who they traded for Fuentes to help the 2010 team down the stretch (not that Fuentes did much as he got hurt). If the Twins sign 20 kids from Australia how many have to make the majors? Would one - Thorpe - turing into a top 30 prospect make it worth it even if the other 19 never make it out of A+?

 

Do we ignore the impact of the international players that have had significant impact in the majors (and/or minors) that our front office traded for? Do we ignore the strong presence in Puerto Rico since that's part of the draft now? And lastly, our we really arguing (as you seem to be) that the Twins only signed ONE Miguel Sano and they should have signed more?

 

Your post reads like you're worried that Terry Ryan is getting some undeserved credit. Not sure if that's how you want it to read.

[biggentleben]

So after a team graduates seven top 100 prospects in two seasons, they'll be middle of the pack?

 

I'll take that all day.

 

As someone who has taken that, I agree. I love listening to guys like Keith Law rip on the Braves' minor league system and then turn around and praise their "under-25" talent at the major league level. Heck, most of the big hitters that have come up from the minors for the Cardinals were not considered prospects at all, but they have produced in the majors. Just because the player isn't part of the Shiny New Toy Syndrome doesn't mean he won't be a productive major leaguer, and even and All-Star caliber one.

[DaveW]

I really could care less where the Twins farm system is ranked year in and year out, I am 100x more concerend on where the Twins major league team will rank in 2014, 2015,2016, etc.

 

Also a guy like Stewart should be a mainstay in the top 25-30 for the next couple years anyways, and guys like Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, etc will start getting on more radars as well.

[lightfoot789]

Don’t say Walker because he has HUGE contact/SO issues that he hast to fix and he hasn’t been able to fix even though he played college, he needs to prove it against pitchers who can throw with movement.

 

According to Fangraphs Statistics for Adam Brett Walker - He improved his K% rate from 30.2% (2012) to 20.8% (2013). Are you telling me that 20.8% is high for a slugger - even at Low A? I don't think so. That does not reflect huge contact issues. Work to be done - YES - "Huge" contact issues - No. Who in the world are you comparing him to?

 

AdamBrettWalkerFangraphStats

[gunnarthor]

According to Fangraphs Statistics for Adam Brett Walker - He improved his K% rate from 30.2% (2012) to 20.8% (2013). Are you telling me that 20.8% is high for a slugger - even at Low A? I don't think so. That does not reflect huge contact issues. Work to be done - YES - "Huge" contact issues - No. Who in the world are you comparing him to?

 

AdamBrettWalkerFangraphStats

 

I think clutterheart is right. Walker is a 22 year old college guy in low A ball. That's a scary krate. And, more frighteningly, his walk rate fell to about 5%.

[kab21]

According to Fangraphs Statistics for Adam Brett Walker - He improved his K% rate from 30.2% (2012) to 20.8% (2013). Are you telling me that 20.8% is high for a slugger - even at Low A? I don't think so. That does not reflect huge contact issues. Work to be done - YES - "Huge" contact issues - No. Who in the world are you comparing him to?

 

AdamBrettWalkerFangraphStats

 

115 K's and 31 BB's is a pretty big reason for a concern.

[lightfoot789]

115 K's and 31 BB's is a pretty big reason for a concern.

 

Reason for concern yes - Big reason for concern no. I asked this question earlier - Who are you comparing his 20% K rate to? I need comps..........

 

Everybody talks about him being a college player and being old for Low A. I believe he was the second youngest college player in the entire 2012 draft. Let's start putting things in perspective folks. Every prospect doesn't need to be 22 years old when you bring him up to the MLB level. To the previous statement that he doesn't show the ability to improve: - I believe that he has shown the ability to work out kinks (Ex: 30% to 20% K Rate).

 

His contact rate has improved as well. Great - No, But much better Yes. How much more does a player need to improve - to get some love? I want comps........... How is he not worthy of praise? League MVP - Top HR & RBI Leader - 2nd in League in Runs scored. Can't score unless you get on base - Intangibles matter too. The only reason for a concern about Walks (BB) is that you want him to improve his ability to help his teams score runs. Definitely would help! But............ when you lead your team every year in Runs scored and your team has the best record in their respective league every year. In this case - Best record in Minor leagues - What more do you want before you give him some credit? Give me comps as to who you know better? I guarentee they are Very High Prospects on their respective teams (as should he be).

[twinsfan34]

 

According to Fangraphs Statistics for Adam Brett Walker - He improved his K% rate from 30.2% (2012) to 20.8% (2013). Are you telling me that 20.8% is high for a slugger - even at Low A? I don't think so. That does not reflect huge contact issues. Work to be done - YES - "Huge" contact issues - No. Who in the world are you comparing him to?

 

115 K's and 31 BB's is a pretty big reason for a concern.

 

Adam Walker is almost a year younger than the player average there.

 

Another Walker, Larry, had a strikeout rate of 28.7% at the same Midwest League in 1986. He went on to win 3 batting titles.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=walker001lar

 

Chris Davis, HR champ this past season, had 29.4% K-rate at A+ in 2007.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=davis-003chr

 

Joey Votto's strikeout rate at class A Midwest league in 2004 was 23.2%, he was 20.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=votto-001jos

 

Pedro Alvarez, who despite playing at Prestigious Vanderbilt (not Jacksonville St like Walker), at one year older, age 22, at class A+ had a strikeout rate of 24.6% despite playing in a league that wasn't as easy to strikeout in as Walker's 2013 Midwest Lg. Oh yeah, Alvarez, he was the home run champion in 2013 in the NL.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alvare001ped

 

The guy improved his K% rate 10% from year to year, so in 2 years he won't strikeout at all?

 

Yes, that's just as reasonable a projection as he won't end up as much. Scouts like Walker. He was only 21 this past season, turned 22 in late October.

 

The list goes on and on. Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell.

 

I can find no less than 50 guys with worse strikeout rates who went on to hit or will hit more than 300 MLB home runs in the last 20 years.

 

If Walker hits 300 HR I'd be ecstatic.

 

Another, Paul Goldschmidt. One year older, at age 22, 26.9% K% at A+.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=goldsc001pau

[gunnarthor]

Reason for concern yes - Big reason for concern no. I asked this question earlier - Who are you comparing his 20% K rate to? I need comps..........

 

Everybody talks about him being a college player and being old for Low A. I believe he was the second youngest college player in the entire 2012 draft. Let's start putting things in perspective folks. Every prospect doesn't need to be 22 years old when you bring him up to the MLB level. To the previous statement that he doesn't show the ability to improve: - I believe that he has shown the ability to work out kinks (Ex: 30% to 20% K Rate).

 

His contact rate has improved as well. Great - No, But much better Yes. How much more does a player need to improve - to get some love? I want comps........... How is he not worthy of praise? League MVP - Top HR & RBI Leader - 2nd in League in Runs scored. Can't score unless you get on base - Intangibles matter too. The only reason for a concern about Walks (BB) is that you want him to improve his ability to help his teams score runs. Definitely would help! But............ when you lead your team every year in Runs scored and your team has the best record in their respective league every year. In this case - Best record in Minor leagues - What more do you want before you give him some credit? Give me comps as to who you know better? I guarentee they are Very High Prospects on their respective teams (as should he be).

 

Tons of guys his age or younger have posted that kind of power in A ball with high K rates and even better walk rates. Angel Morales, Matt Olson, Jacob Wilson, Alberth Martinez, Anthony Garcia, Cameron Garfield, Benjamin Mcmahan etc. You can literally pick any year in A ball history and find a dozen guys 22 and younger who post ISO over .200 w/a 20% or worse krate. Some of them make it to the majors. Most don't.

 

No one is dissing him, he's a nice player to have in your system and a very good 3rd round pick. But he hasn't put his tools together yet to be ranked highly in the prospect lists. As Parks says, he's loaded with tools and if he manages to put everything together, he's a first division player. That is fantastic and I really hope it happens. But he's not close to there yet. The Twins will give him tons of time to get there but he needs to show plate discipline in both improving his krate (which he has started to do) and his walk rate (which he hasn't). If he can't fix his plate discipline, he won't get past AA.

[twinsfan34]

Another one closer to home.

 

Pedro Florimon. Same age 21, class A ball.

 

Hit 0 home runs in 305 PA while having a K% of 31.8% and a BB% of 8.8%.

 

5 years later, at age 26, in the pros for the Twins (2013).

 

He hit 9 HR in 446 PA, with a K% of 25.8% and a BB% of 7.3%.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=florim001ped

[kab21]

It's frustrating that you fixate only on the K's. The issue is that he doesn't walk also. Out of your examples only Chris Davis had similar K and BB rates throughout his MiLB career. Walker posted similar rates for his season in the midwest league and then he became a walking machine after that.

 

And nobody is writing him off. He's a unique blend of physical tools and raw hitting skill.

 

The big problem is that low of a walk rate (with the K's) is that he is not looking for his pitch and swinging at tough pitches out of the K zone. This wasn't an issue in low A but that was due to him just flat out being more skilled than the low A pitchers. This won't be true as he moves up in the minors and it definitely won't be true in the majors.

 

And yes it is a big reason for concern.

[twinsfan34]

Sammy Sosa (BB)

Mike Schmidt

Mark McGwire

Manny Ramirez

Reggie Jackson

Fred McGriff

Jose Canseco

Adam Dunn

David Ortiz

Mike Piazza (BB)

Andres Galarraga

Jim Edmonds

Albert Belle

Tony Perez

Matt Williams

Jeff Kent

Lance Berkman

Gary Gaetti

Carlos Beltran

Greg Vaughn

Moises Alou

Ryan Howard

Jay Buhner

Richie Sexson

Reggie Sanders

Tim Salmon

Carlos Pena

Eric Davis

Mike Cameron

Jorge Posada

Gorman Thomas

Matt Stairs

Nick Swisher

Dan Uggla

Rob Deer

Tony Batista

Geoff Jenkins

Adam LaRoche

Travis Hafner

Jose Bautista

Mark Reynolds

Dave Henderson

Russell Branyan

 

194 HR and up club. Sosa and Piazza had worse walk rates. Sosa was younger though. The rest were within a year (older or younger) and at A/A+ ball.

 

The big thing is that BB%.

 

He's not striking out a ton...and scouting reports (BA, etc) say he kills mistake pitches, especially off-speed stuff.

 

It actually seems he struggled with plus fastballs (93-95). Which can't a guy just speed up his bat a little while giving up some HR length?

 

Curious to see what he does.

 

Curious the thoughts on Vargas, Harrison, and Dalton?

 

Harrison is 20, the others are older and similar K rates as Walker.

[twinsfan34]

Matt Adams is a good comp.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9393&position=1B

 

Class A, same age, 6.5% BB% and and 15.3% K%.

[jokin]

Matt Adams is a good comp.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9393&position=1B

 

Class A, same age, 6.5% BB% and and 15.3% K%.

 

Excellent work overall and Adams is a most interesting comp. Correction on Adam Walker, he attended Jacksonville University in Florida, not Jacksonville State in Alabama.

 

In contrast to 3rd round pick Walker, Adams was a completely unheralded and unknown prospect (23rd round from Slippery Rock University - DII school) who isn't anywhere close to being the athlete with upside that Walker is. But Adams' Midwest League batting stats at the same age as Walker are clearly superior to Walker, across the board (.310/.355/.541). The man clearly has a gift, he's a born hitter. But his K rate was never better than at age 21. He's been above 20% K with a similar BB% ever since at every level he's played (in 2013 for the Cards he had a 25.1% K and 7.3% BB).

 

Walker has a huge upside AND a huge flame-out potential, continued improvement in his plate discipline in 2014 against tougher pitchers in Hi A will be telling on his ultimate success track to the majors. Close to similar production to Adams- with more power and more athleticism- is reasonable to project as his ceiling.

 

On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks:

 

Shelby Miller 1st rd

Joe Kelly 3rd rd

 

They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions:

 

Matt Carpenter 13th rd

Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd

Matt Adams 23rd rd

Keith Butler 24th rd

 

There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.

[clutterheart]

Reason for concern yes - Big reason for concern no. I asked this question earlier - Who are you comparing his 20% K rate to? I need comps.....

 

I am not sure I have ever seen "runs scored" as a stat to evaluate a prospect especially one with a bad OB %.

 

For me, I'm not sure what you mean by "comps" as his K% & BB% are not good and red flags. That's just a fact. You can say you think he can overcome those red flags and I hope you are right. But that coupled with the reports I have seen that say he struggles with balls that have movement tells me he will has problems as he faces high quality pitching. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

[markos]

Tons of guys his age or younger have posted that kind of power in A ball with high K rates and even better walk rates. Angel Morales, Matt Olson, Jacob Wilson, Alberth Martinez, Anthony Garcia, Cameron Garfield, Benjamin Mcmahan etc. You can literally pick any year in A ball history and find a dozen guys 22 and younger who post ISO over .200 w/a 20% or worse krate. Some of them make it to the majors. Most don't.

 

No one is dissing him, he's a nice player to have in your system and a very good 3rd round pick. But he hasn't put his tools together yet to be ranked highly in the prospect lists. As Parks says, he's loaded with tools and if he manages to put everything together, he's a first division player. That is fantastic and I really hope it happens. But he's not close to there yet. The Twins will give him tons of time to get there but he needs to show plate discipline in both improving his krate (which he has started to do) and his walk rate (which he hasn't). If he can't fix his plate discipline, he won't get past AA.

 

I wish the 'Like' button still existed for this comment. Great stuff.

 

This discussion is missing the total number of minor league prospects who match the various comps. Yes, it is interesting that 50 successful major leaguers matched Walker's power and K-rate profile at a similar age/level, but it is more interesting to know what percentage of all players who match Walker become successful major leaguers. To figure that out, we need to know the total number. If there are only 100 who match, and 50 become successful, then Walker has pretty good odds. But if there are 1,000 who match, then Walker's odds become much less likely.

 

Expanding on Gunnarthor's example, it would be interesting to know just how many minor league players in the past 20 years fall into Walker's criteria:

Played at Low-A at 20, 21, or 22.

K-Rate greater than 20%

BB-Rate less than 7.5%

IOS greater than .200

 

Then from that group, how many became success major league hitters?

 

My comp for Walker is Mark Trumbo: big power, low OBP, high strikeouts, not much defensive value. Trumbo is definitely a useful player (and very valuable pre-arbitration), but not a superstar. I think this is Walker's ceiling unless he learns to get on-base better.