The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge

[Alex]

 

I guess it just comes down the fact that I'm dead set against being in the position where Parmelee and some random guy like Colabello almost have guaranteed starting positions before spring training starts. I'm not even very excited about Arcia opening the year in the majors. If it was the case where the twins had 2 really good players at LF/RF/DH and we were just looking for one youngster to step up then Willy is expendable but the Twins could be starting the season with below average hitters at almost every spot in the lineup.

 

It may have been missed, but I'm not for trading Willingham outright. I'm for trading him provided a suitable replacement bat and more flexible player (someone who isn't ideally suited to just DH) would be placed in his spot

 

He doesn't improve any teams lineup "dramatically." He has, however, certainly improved the Twins lineup over the alternatives in both his seasons here. In any case I see literally almost no downside to keeping him.

 

I think it's a bit much to say there is "no" downside but I definitely see more upside keeping him over Doumit.

[kab21]

But what is the downside to keeping him? It's pretty much non-existent. Maybe he gets injured and completely sucks but the money is basically a sunk cost. I would be shocked if a team offered a trade where they took the whole salary. And the Twins already have 50M left to spend this winter and it's almost guaranteed that they don't spend all of that. Additionally there are almost no legitimate prospects that he is taking playing time from. If Arcia can't outhit the likes of Parmelee, Colabello, Pressley, Mastro then he shouldn't get a starting spot.

 

I do think that part of the assumption in trading them (at least my hope) is they bring in a younger, better hitter.

 

This really doesn't work since younger, better hitters usually are expensive in FA or you have to trade something valuable to get them. If this is your plan I hope that you reconsider because it's more likely that you are getting Clete Thomas part II as a replacement.

[Mike Sixel]

The downside is he is an awful defender, and they will continue to trot him out in LF. Oh, and he's old, and not likely to be really, really good.

[kab21]

The downside is he is an awful defender, and they will continue to trot him out in LF. Oh, and he's old, and not likely to be really, really good.

 

Let's consider the alternatives and the downsides associated with them.

 

Pressley - can't really hit

Parmelee - hasn't hit in the majors and not a good defender

Colabello - basically a 30 yr old rookie that is not a good defender

Mastro - possibly playing CF and not much of a hitter

Arcia - completely fell apart in the 2nd half but should be up for good at some point next season

 

Willingham has his flaws but his competition (pick 3 as starters) completely sucks.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, his competition includes:

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

Shin Shoo Choo

Nate McClouth

Grady Sizemore

 

and a few others that are also options.....if you think he is a LFer. Willingham can't field at all, and these pitchers are terrible. I'd rather have Pressley catch the ball, and not hit, than Josh hit (maybe) and not field.

 

Actually, I'd rather sign Ellsbury.....

[Guest USAFChief]

Actually, his competition includes:

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

Shin Shoo Choo

Nate McClouth

Grady Sizemore

 

and a few others that are also options.....if you think he is a LFer. Willingham can't field at all, and these pitchers are terrible. I'd rather have Pressley catch the ball, and not hit, than Josh hit (maybe) and not field.

 

Actually, I'd rather sign Ellsbury.....

If trading Hammer means the Twins end up with an OF of Ellsbury, Choo and Mcclouth, sign me up.

 

I'm skeptical that's what trading Hammer means though.

[kab21]

Actually, his competition includes:

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

Shin Shoo Choo

Nate McClouth

Grady Sizemore

 

and a few others that are also options.....if you think he is a LFer. Willingham can't field at all, and these pitchers are terrible. I'd rather have Pressley catch the ball, and not hit, than Josh hit (maybe) and not field.

 

Actually, I'd rather sign Ellsbury.....

 

So Ellsbury fills one of those positions (or CF). There's still another corner OF position (or two) and DH to fill with crap. And I highly doubt the Twins are going to sign multiple FA OF'ers. For the record I am not really against signing an OF'er despite the MiLB depth. But I would also keep Willy (at least until the trade deadline) because the rest of the options completely suck.

[Mike Sixel]

So Ellsbury fills one of those positions (or CF). There's still another corner OF position (or two) and DH to fill with crap. And I highly doubt the Twins are going to sign multiple FA OF'ers. For the record I am not really against signing an OF'er despite the MiLB depth. But I would also keep Willy (at least until the trade deadline) because the rest of the options completely suck.

 

for me.....

 

Arcia in RF, FA in CF or LF, and one of their backup types in LF/CF, until Hicks or Buxton is ready. That's what I would do for the OF next year. For DH, I'd probably take a flyer on a guy that has more positional flexibility than Willingham. I think even if Hicks and Buxton and Arcia all work out, you still have room for a legit OF/DH type. And, I think there is more good FA available in the OF than in the starting pitching world. I'd be happy if they moved Willingham, and signed a legit OF. Frankly, I do not expect it to happen.

 

edit: I don't think they can fix everything in one year (well, they could, but they won't), so for me, signing a legit FA OF helps in 14 and beyond.

[Shane Wahl]

Of those guys, only Grady Sizemore is within the Twins budget.

[Alex]

Let's consider the alternatives and the downsides associated with them.

 

Pressley - can't really hit

Parmelee - hasn't hit in the majors and not a good defender

Colabello - basically a 30 yr old rookie that is not a good defender

Mastro - possibly playing CF and not much of a hitter

Arcia - completely fell apart in the 2nd half but should be up for good at some point next season

 

Willingham has his flaws but his competition (pick 3 as starters) completely sucks.

 

If by Arcia "falling apart completely in the second half" you actually mean increasing his OPS by 20 points, then yes, he fell apart. His OBP and AVG did leave something to be desired, but then, wasn't he hurt as well?

 

As for the rest, I won't disagree with you completely on Cola or Parmelee, but I don't think that Pressley or Mastro are really in the same category and shouldn't be considered fill ins because they can play any outfield position and should be 4th OF anyway.

 

This really doesn't work since younger, better hitters usually are expensive in FA or you have to trade something valuable to get them. If this is your plan I hope that you reconsider because it's more likely that you are getting Clete Thomas part II as a replacement.

 

As for this point, if we're talking about better than his career numbers, you're right. However, I was referring to a better hitter than he was last season (and better than I think he'll be next season). Not to mention that if we're just looking for a DH, it really wouldn't cost that much. "Younger hitters" is a pretty big group.

[stringer bell]

Willingham is a career .830 OPS, 122 OPS+ MLB hitter over 4200+ PAs. Prior to 2013, he last failed to put up an .800 OPS in his second big league season, 2005. He had an .890 OPS as recently as 2012.

 

Now maybe he has fallen off a cliff at age 34. Then again, he might just have had a down season, like thousands of big leaguers in the past, and he'll put up decent numbers again. If i were a betting man, I'd put even money on him having a higher OPS in 2014 than any current Twin not named Mauer.

 

He doesn't improve any teams lineup "dramatically." He has, however, certainly improved the Twins lineup over the alternatives in both his seasons here. In any case I see literally almost no downside to keeping him.

Agree 100% with the Chief. Or as his avatar might say "shazam" or "goolllliie"

[TheLeviathan]

So what's the upside of giving him away this winter? What's the downside of not giving him away?

 

You play someone that MAY be a part of the future. Look at Brandon Moss as an example of a team investing at-bats in at least the possibility of future contributions. Willingham offers ZERO future productivity. At least give someone with a 1 or 5 or 20 percent chance a shot.

 

And, for the record, I was for dealing him last year. I maintain it was foolish to argue his value would be higher this year. His value (whatever it may have been) was highest last July. And he should've been dealt then.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I'm going to derail (re-rail?) this conversation by jumping back to a response to my comment on page 1.

 

I would be in favor of this trade. I think Espinosa would be a good fit with the Twins. I doubt Nats GM would make trade straight up--we would probably have to throw one of our minor league hitters (DJ Hicks??) in.

The comments on Nick's 5 Offseason Predictions article got me thinking: What if the Twins dealt Doumit and Duensing for Espinosa? Would that be enough? I know the Nats had a dearth of lefty bullpen options this past season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm going to derail (re-rail?) this conversation by jumping back to a response to my comment on page 1.

 

 

The comments on Nick's 5 Offseason Predictions article got me thinking: What if the Twins dealt Doumit and Duensing for Espinosa? Would that be enough? I know the Nats had a dearth of lefty bullpen options this past season.

 

I know Espinosa's value has dropped, but that's a pretty big drop. Duensing will likely have some value to a pen starved team, but at the price of his arb contract he's not going to garner much. Doumit is probably worthless at the moment. I could see him getting a sulbaran type guy at next year's deadline if he hits more like 2012 Doumit than 2013.

[kab21]

If by Arcia "falling apart completely in the second half" you actually mean increasing his OPS by 20 points, then yes, he fell apart. His OBP and AVG did leave something to be desired, but then, wasn't he hurt as well?

 

As for the rest, I won't disagree with you completely on Cola or Parmelee, but I don't think that Pressley or Mastro are really in the same category and shouldn't be considered fill ins because they can play any outfield position and should be 4th OF anyway.

 

Arcia struck out 35% of the time and walked just 5% of the time in the 2nd half. So his OPS might have increased a little because of a couple extra HR's but those K and BB numbers are absolutely awful. I consider awful plate discipline as falling apart. i think he has a special raw ability for hitting but it's going to take some time.

 

Pressley and mastro are 4th OF'ers and should be considered plan B or C for starting positions. The Twins should not start the season with either in a starting role unless there is an injury.

 

People continue to completely overlook the negative impact that having almost no good hitters in the lineup can have on young players like Hicks, Sano, Arcia and possibly Rosario. The last thing I want is to call up Arcia and Sano and be forced to bat them 3rd and 4th because the rest of the lineup sucks that bad.

 

I'm all for getting youngsters AB's but there is an uninspiring bunch of youngsters competing for multiples spots. If any of them look halfway decent then they will not have a problem getting AB's regardless if Willingham is on the team. Just look at how many AB's AAAA OF'ers got this year.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I know Espinosa's value has dropped, but that's a pretty big drop. Duensing will likely have some value to a pen starved team, but at the price of his arb contract he's not going to garner much. Doumit is probably worthless at the moment. I could see him getting a sulbaran type guy at next year's deadline if he hits more like 2012 Doumit than 2013.

I wonder if we're too low on Doumit. The Nationals Baseball blog (a member, like Twins Daily, of ESPN's SweetSpot Network, so I assume it has some legitimacy) and its commenters actually seem somewhat positive about the idea of trading for Doumit. For examples, try here and here.

 

A quote from the blogger there:

"How about Ryan Doumit?

Not a bad idea. They guy can play 1B and C (though not well) and can sit in the OF as well as say, Tyler Moore can. He can also hit lefty to complement Ramos... Do the Nats have what it takes to get him? Not sure. The Nats don't have a deep system and can't afford to trade anything worthwhile."

 

And from some commenters (prompting the blogger's above quote):

"I agree the Doumit idea is not bad a bad idea at all imo. Very underrated hitter (albeit with defense leaving something to be desired, wherever you put him in the field)"

 

"Yeah, I like the Doumit idea too as as a catching/OF depth move, but I noticed he hasn't played 1st much in the last several years. He's only making 3.5 million, so I assume that they'll have to give up a legitimate player for him, but last year's numbers maybe dropped his value back to an reasonable target."

 

...Now obviously, posts on a fan blog and by fan commenters aren't the same as comments from a Front Office, but it does make me think Doumit could have some value to the right team.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's hope Doumit does.....

[stringer bell]

I agree with much of kab's comments. Having the Hammer hitting in the middle of the order isn't all bad and I think he'll hit more like 2012 than 2013 mostly because of improved health and it will be a walk year. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sano struggle much like Arcia in 2014--a good amount of power but a disturbing number of K's--when he is recalled. What is important is to develop the young future studs--Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Sano, Rosario. Whatever the plan for Hicks was last year, it didn't work. I would call the results for Arcia mixed, at best. Next year, we should see the debut of Sano (for sure) and probably Rosario and possibly Buxton. How those guys do, along with Hicks and Sano, will determine much of the success of 2014, at least from a position player point of view. If all five are top quadrant second year players, the future will look pretty bright.