Don't trade prospects

[gunnarthor]

Back to the main topic. When you have lost 95+ games three seasons in a row you have to explore every possibility. Sano+ for Price is an interesting scenario depending on if Price would sign an extension with us.

 

I'd disagree with that. Price, I believe has two years left before he's a free agent. That's what Sano would be buying. If he had two more years of similar production to this year, the Twins would be giving up 6 years of control of the best power prospect in the minors for 374ip, 114 ERA+, 5.6 WAR. That would be a horrible, horrible trade for us.

[ThePuck]

Smith was the one who didn't sign Torii and traded Santana.

 

 

Ryan had multiple chances to sign Hunter. Smith can't be the one blamed for Hunter leaving. The time to try to sign an impending FA of your own isn't two months before he becomes a FA. It's at least the offseason before a player plays his last season before becoming a FA. Smith had no shot to sign Hunter. Smith also had to trade Santana, because Santana made it clear he wasn't going to sign...but Ryan probably could have signed him before 2007 or before to a longer contract extension than the one he did.

 

The other contract you mentioned that the Twins did were done by Smith.

[cmb0252]

Ryan had multiple chances to sign Hunter. Smith can't be the one blamed for Hunter leaving. The time to try to sign an impending FA of your own isn't two months before he becomes a FA. It's at least the offseason before a player plays his last season before becoming a FA. Smith had no shot to sign Hunter. Smith also had to trade Santana, because Santana made it clear he wasn't going to sign...but Ryan probably could have signed him before 2007 or before to a longer contract extension than the one he did.

 

The other contract you mentioned that the Twins did were done by Smith.

 

I mentioned Nathan, Mauer, and Morny just as examples of the Twins resigning their big time impending FAs since moving into Target field.

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe, maybe not. But when Smith was GM, the team did spend money. Whether or not they spent it well is a different matter.

 

Smith isn't Ryan. One could argue it's precisely this issue tht cost him his job.

[Major League Ready]

I'd disagree with that. Price, I believe has two years left before he's a free agent. That's what Sano would be buying. If he had two more years of similar production to this year, the Twins would be giving up 6 years of control of the best power prospect in the minors for 374ip, 114 ERA+, 5.6 WAR. That would be a horrible, horrible trade for us.

 

It would basically be the same as trading Will Meyers, right? Except, at least KC was doing it to take a crack at the playoffs. Price and one other quality FA starter and we would be respectable but unlikely to be in contention unless we had a bunch of things go right.. That is going to put big pressure on KC to retain Santana. If he leaves their chances of getting to playoffs deminishes substantially and they might have traded Meyers for an unsuccessful single season playoff run. I can't imagine KC is not going to get outbid for him. I would not mind if we were the ones who outbid them.

[ThePuck]

It would basically be the same as trading Will Meyers, right? Except, at least KC was doing it to take a crack at the playoffs. Price and one other quality FA starter and we would be respectable but unlikely to be in contention unless we had a bunch of things go right.. That is going to put big pressure on KC to retain Santana. If he leaves their chances of getting to playoffs deminishes substantially and they might have traded Meyers for an unsuccessful single season playoff run. I can't imagine KC is not going to get outbid for him. I would not mind if we were the ones who outbid them.

 

KC has Zimmer coming and Ventura has already shown up. Nice if they keep Santana, but they'll be fine if he leaves.

[howieramone1406390264]

It would basically be the same as trading Will Meyers, right? Except, at least KC was doing it to take a crack at the playoffs. Price and one other quality FA starter and we would be respectable but unlikely to be in contention unless we had a bunch of things go right.. That is going to put big pressure on KC to retain Santana. If he leaves their chances of getting to playoffs deminishes substantially and they might have traded Meyers for an unsuccessful single season playoff run. I can't imagine KC is not going to get outbid for him. I would not mind if we were the ones who outbid them.

You make a very good point. The Royals rebuild for 7 years, IMO they panicked and made a premature trade, now they maybe looking at being one and done.

 

Edit: Zimmer had 18 innings at AA last season, and Ventura made 3 September starts totaling 15 innings.

[Oxtung]

Hunter was 26 and signed for $32MM over 4 seasons. Joe Mauer was 23 when he signed a 4 year $33MM contract. Santana was 25 when he signed a 4 year $40MM contract. Brad Radke was 28 when he signed a 4 year $36MM contract.

 

Each of those players had come up through the Twins system and were fan favorites. The medical history was known. The players attitude was known. How they fit in the locker room, how they handled the press. Other than Radke they all signed contracts that ran only through their "prime" years. Each contract was only 4 years and $10MM/yr or less.

 

On the other hand David Price will be 28 or 29 and will receive a 6 or 7 year contract for $170MM-$200MM. He will be 35 or 36 when his contract expires. His peripherals (makeup, attitude, etc...) will all be relatively unknown at the time the trade happens. He is also going to cost the Twins 3 or 4 very significant prospects. Oh yeah, and he might decide he wants to test out free agency anyways.

 

Ryan has never brokered any deal even remotely similar to this and all of his quotes in the paper indicate he despises these kinds of deals.

 

Would you be against the idea of Sano, Rosario, May and Kepler/Harrison for Price deal?

I think you're skewing a bit high but yeah, Price will cost a fortune.

 

But the Rays would have to be certifiably insane to not take Sano/Buxton and Meyer for Price. There is no shot in hell that another team could offer that package.

 

Sano, Rosario, May and Kepler/Harrison isn't even what the Rays got in return for Shields. They got a pitcher instead of Rosario and $8MM in salary relief. Take that plus the fact that Price is younger and a better pitcher and I think it would cost the Twins more. Sano/Buxton, Meyer/Stewart (depending on when the deal is made), May/Berrios, plus one or two sweetners like Kepler and Harrison.

 

So no, I wouldn't do that deal. I might do the Sano, Rosario, May and Kepler deal. I think Sano's K-rate is going to hurt him, not that he won't turn into a fine player but I don't think he's the second coming of Cabrera or even Beltre, and I think May ends up as a backend starter or in the bullpen.

 

Frankly, if the Twins wanted a front of the rotation starter, the solution was to throw big money at Greinke or Sanchez last off season. That way they didn't have to give up any prospects. I think this is all a mirage though because I don't think Ryan will have the courage to sign Price to a long term big money contract and he isn't going to make the deal for just the two years remaining on Price's contract with where the Twins currently are at.

[Thegrin]

Trading rule #1 Never trade a big league bat for an arm unless

a. The bat is old

b. The bat is flawed (see Delmon Young)

c. Unless you get at least 2 arms (May & Worley for Revere)

Span for Meyers will probably prove to be a very bad trade.

 

Trading Rule #2 Never trade a top batting prospect unless

a. You have a superstar playing that position already.

b. That player has flaws, known only to your organization.

c. Unless you are on the verge of winning a pennant.

[Oxtung]

But the Rays would have to be certifiably insane to not take Sano/Buxton and Meyer for Price. There is no shot in hell that another team could offer that package.

 

I did a little bit of digging.

 

Cleveland could offer a comparable package fronted by either or both of Lindor and Kipnis plus Trevor Bauer and sweetners. The Red Sox certainly have the talent in their minor league system to match our offer. Some combination of Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Webster, Owens, Barnes plus sweeteners. I don't think they will though because they look pretty set at pitcher for the foreseeable future. The Mariners probably could put a package together between Zunino, Walker, Paxton, Hultzen, Montero and Franklin. Again though I don't think they would because they have quite a few pitching prospects lined up to go with Hernandez and Iwakuma. The Rangers are intriguing though. They have Darvish and Holland and ... ? They could build a package fronted by Profar and some combination of Sardinas, Odor, Alfaro and Gallo plus sweetners. The Cubs absolutely could, they are stocked with young talent, and they are in need of pitching. My question is if the timing is right for them to make this move (just like the Twins). The Reds might be able to depending on how you view Billy Hamilton but I don't think they would. They have quite a bit of pitching talent at the major league level right now. The Pirates could muster up the prospects but it seems unlikely they'd be able to afford Price any more than the Rays can. The Cardinals could probably make a similar offer with Taveras and Wong but they too have quite a few nice young pitching prospects so they won't be interested. The Dodgers are interesting. They don't necessarily need Price but they are definitely in win now mode, so if they wanted an absolutely dominant rotation he would be interesting. They don't have any top end talent but they do have quite a bit of middle end talent they could perhaps package four 50-100 type prospects together.

 

So the Rangers, Dodgers, Cleveland and Cubs in that order of likelihood IMO. Toss the Twins in where you feel appropriate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sano, Rosario, May and Kepler/Harrison isn't even what the Rays got in return for Shields. They got a pitcher instead of Rosario and $8MM in salary relief. Take that plus the fact that Price is younger and a better pitcher and I think it would cost the Twins more. Sano/Buxton, Meyer/Stewart (depending on when the deal is made), May/Berrios, plus one or two sweetners like Kepler and Harrison.

 

You're assuming two things:

 

1. Another team with that kind of prospect package is going to be willing to trade for Price

 

2. Another team with that kind of prospect package is going to be insane enough to trade them away

 

The Rays absolutely jobbed the Royals in that deal. I don't see it happening twice.

[spideyo]

All this talk of sending a huge package of players for Price is starting to give me flashbacks of Herschel Walker.

 

No matter how good a starting pitcher is, at most he will be contributing in 32-33 games during the regular season.

 

Even if he managed to never miss a start and we won every single game he started, that alone will not be enough to be champions.

 

Gutting our farm system and/or getting rid of a fantastic and affordable closer is certainly not going to help us win any of the other 130 games.

[ThePuck]

Having a big time ace helps save the bullpen which will rest them and help us in all the other games. On top of that , in your hypothetical, if we won all his starts that would mean we only need around 60 wins coming from the starts of the other four. The winning all his starts scenario wouldn't happen though. In any event, an ace is very valuable and that value extends past his own starts

[richardkr34]

First, Price is younger, has 3 years of control not 2, a better pitcher than James Shields and as such will cost more.

 

Second, Davis was a salary dump. You also forgot to include Odorizzi, a top 100 pitcher and Mike Montgomery who was a top 50 prospect in 2011. So in essence the Rays got $8MM in salary relief, top 5 and 100 prospects, and a potential bounce back flier with very high upside. That is considerably more that "just Myers."

 

Third, the Rays don't value closers. They prefer to sign old veterans on the cheap so Perkins isn't the chip you are implying.

 

So, you're offering Perkins, a player they don't value, Rosario (top 100 prospect), Berrios (top 150), and 2 fliers. There is just no way they take that for one of the best pitchers in the game and in his prime.

 

If you're looking to build a package for Price you have to start with Sano or Buxton. Then include another top 100 prospect (Rosario or Meyer) and either Berrios or Trevor May. Toss in some fliers like Harrison or Kepler to make the deal even out. That is essentially what Shields cost so the Rays might want more.

 

That is too much since we aren't currently competitive, don't know that Ryan would do what it would take to sign Price long term and we aren't sure that Price would be interested in signing for a team that is likely to be bad during the negotiations, IMO.

 

1) Price has two years of arbitration, not three.

 

2) Montgomery has completely fallen off the map (4.72 ERA and 48/77 BB/K ratio) and Odorizzi is the consummate #5 starter-type prospect. Joe Blanton-esque.

 

3) Rosario just missed Parks' top 50 midseason; he was 41 on Law's. Berrios just missed Parks' midseason 50. Kepler is not a throw in; if you think that, you're just saying things right now that have no meaning. Harrison has 65 raw power and has some idea how to hit.

 

4) The Rays paid Rodney 2.5 mil; Perk made the same. He gets a raise in the next few years, but he's younger and better.

 

5) Again, just because the Royals made a stupid trade doesn't mean 29 other teams are going to. The Cubs got a 3b who can't hit, a fringe top-100 guy, and two throw ins for Garza. I know it's different talent/contract issues, but an elite closer, a top 50 guy, a top 50-75 guy, a top 100 guy, and a 20-year-old with 65 raw and an at least average hit tool blows that out of the water and is more realistic than basing a presumed Price trade on Dayton Moore's stupidity.

[twinsfan34]

Trading rule #1 Never trade a big league bat for an arm unless

a. The bat is old

b. The bat is flawed (see Delmon Young)

c. Unless you get at least 2 arms (May & Worley for Revere)

Span for Meyers will probably prove to be a very bad trade.

 

Trading Rule #2 Never trade a top batting prospect unless

a. You have a superstar playing that position already.

b. That player has flaws, known only to your organization.

c. Unless you are on the verge of winning a pennant.

 

 

This is great. Yours?

 

1. Agree. Bat is way more project-able for value.

 

2. I see how the Tampa Bay Rays basically fleeced the Royals. The Royals had top arms in in AA and AAA. Shields is solid. But Wade Davis? And you give the Rays 2 top pitching prospects (Mike Montgomery #31 ovr, Jake Odorizzi, #45 ovr) and Wil Myers (#4 prospect ovr)!!?

 

Welp, they are what we thought they were. They are, in fact, the Royals.

[twinsfan34]

I did a little bit of digging.

 

Cleveland could offer a comparable package fronted by either or both of Lindor and Kipnis plus Trevor Bauer and sweetners. The Red Sox certainly have the talent in their minor league system to match our offer. Some combination of Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Webster, Owens, Barnes plus sweeteners. I don't think they will though because they look pretty set at pitcher for the foreseeable future. The Mariners probably could put a package together between Zunino, Walker, Paxton, Hultzen, Montero and Franklin. Again though I don't think they would because they have quite a few pitching prospects lined up to go with Hernandez and Iwakuma. The Rangers are intriguing though. They have Darvish and Holland and ... ? They could build a package fronted by Profar and some combination of Sardinas, Odor, Alfaro and Gallo plus sweetners. The Cubs absolutely could, they are stocked with young talent, and they are in need of pitching. My question is if the timing is right for them to make this move (just like the Twins). The Reds might be able to depending on how you view Billy Hamilton but I don't think they would. They have quite a bit of pitching talent at the major league level right now. The Pirates could muster up the prospects but it seems unlikely they'd be able to afford Price any more than the Rays can. The Cardinals could probably make a similar offer with Taveras and Wong but they too have quite a few nice young pitching prospects so they won't be interested. The Dodgers are interesting. They don't necessarily need Price but they are definitely in win now mode, so if they wanted an absolutely dominant rotation he would be interesting. They don't have any top end talent but they do have quite a bit of middle end talent they could perhaps package four 50-100 type prospects together.

 

So the Rangers, Dodgers, Cleveland and Cubs in that order of likelihood IMO. Toss the Twins in where you feel appropriate.

 

Is there really this much interest in David Price? He'd have to be traded this Fall to get two "cheap" ($11M-$15M) seasons, before he asks for $25M a season for 5-8 years at age 30.

 

I don't see that as a smart move for m(any) teams.

[Oxtung]

1) Price has two years of arbitration, not three.

 

2) Montgomery has completely fallen off the map (4.72 ERA and 48/77 BB/K ratio) and Odorizzi is the consummate #5 starter-type prospect. Joe Blanton-esque.

 

3) Rosario just missed Parks' top 50 midseason; he was 41 on Law's. Berrios just missed Parks' midseason 50. Kepler is not a throw in; if you think that, you're just saying things right now that have no meaning. Harrison has 65 raw power and has some idea how to hit.

 

4) The Rays paid Rodney 2.5 mil; Perk made the same. He gets a raise in the next few years, but he's younger and better.

 

5) Again, just because the Royals made a stupid trade doesn't mean 29 other teams are going to. The Cubs got a 3b who can't hit, a fringe top-100 guy, and two throw ins for Garza. I know it's different talent/contract issues, but an elite closer, a top 50 guy, a top 50-75 guy, a top 100 guy, and a 20-year-old with 65 raw and an at least average hit tool blows that out of the water and is more realistic than basing a presumed Price trade on Dayton Moore's stupidity.

 

1) you're absolutely correct. I saw that last night and wanted to see who would catch it.

 

As for the rest I'm at work so can't write much now but will try to get back to it later. I'll just say that you're overvaluing the Twins prospects a bit and undervaluing other teams.

[Oxtung]

You're assuming two things:

 

1. Another team with that kind of prospect package is going to be willing to trade for Price

 

2. Another team with that kind of prospect package is going to be insane enough to trade them away

 

The Rays absolutely jobbed the Royals in that deal. I don't see it happening twice.

 

Perhaps. Do you know of any other recent comps for this potential David Price trade and sign? Sanchez last year, but he was a trade deadline move and doesn't comp particularly well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So no, I wouldn't do that deal. I might do the Sano, Rosario, May and Kepler deal.

 

Even this is a terrible deal. The Rays would jump on this so fast your head would spin. Way too much to give up. Price won't transform this team from 90 losses to 90 wins. Those four guys have a far better chance of doing that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Perhaps. Do you know of any other recent comps for this potential David Price trade and sign? Sanchez last year, but he was a trade deadline move and doesn't comp particularly well.

 

Greinke to the Brewers. As a headliner, the Brewers gave up Escobar, BA's #12 prospect (in other words, very good but a far cry from Myers/Sano). After that, they had a bunch of marginal-to-decent prospects who weren't in BA's top 100 as of February 2010.

 

Johan is another decent comp (only one year but guaranteed an extension and a better pitcher than Shields, Greinke, and Price by a country mile). But we all know the Twins basically pulled an anti-Rays with that particular trade.

[Oxtung]

1) Price has two years of arbitration, not three.

 

2) Montgomery has completely fallen off the map (4.72 ERA and 48/77 BB/K ratio) and Odorizzi is the consummate #5 starter-type prospect. Joe Blanton-esque.

 

3) Rosario just missed Parks' top 50 midseason; he was 41 on Law's. Berrios just missed Parks' midseason 50. Kepler is not a throw in; if you think that, you're just saying things right now that have no meaning. Harrison has 65 raw power and has some idea how to hit.

 

4) The Rays paid Rodney 2.5 mil; Perk made the same. He gets a raise in the next few years, but he's younger and better.

 

5) Again, just because the Royals made a stupid trade doesn't mean 29 other teams are going to. The Cubs got a 3b who can't hit, a fringe top-100 guy, and two throw ins for Garza. I know it's different talent/contract issues, but an elite closer, a top 50 guy, a top 50-75 guy, a top 100 guy, and a 20-year-old with 65 raw and an at least average hit tool blows that out of the water and is more realistic than basing a presumed Price trade on Dayton Moore's stupidity.

 

2) I'm not sure what Montgomery's 2013 stats have to do with his value during the 2012 off season. He certainly had a tough year before he was traded but he was considered a top prospect, #23 by BA and #31 by mlb.com, going into the 2012 season. So while he had a tough year he still had value. Clearly the Rays were hoping for a bounce back year, just like the Twins were with Trevor May.

 

Odorizzi was not considered a #5 type starter at the time of the trade (I haven't been following him closely but I doubt he is considered that now even.) He averaged 9 k/9 for his minor league career including at AAA. He was a dominant pitcher at almost every step along the way. I would guess he was considered a potential #2 starter but likely #3. For reference at the time of the trade Odorizzi was ranked #92 by BA (down from 68 the year before) and #45 by mlb.com.

 

3) Rosario will end up somewhere between 40 and 70 probably. Depends on how people view his second half. Berrios however will not be in any top 100's (just like he wasn't last season) because he hit a wall in the second half. He has talent but he has yet to put together a full season justifying a high ranking. Kepler is a rule 5 eligible OF/1B with big questions and has only played half a season at low A ball. He most definitely is a sweetner. He has a chance to be a MLB player some day if he can put things together but he isn't what this trade hinges on, not when you're talking about the best prospect and a top 10 pitcher in baseball headling the trade. Harrison is not even at Kepler's level. Again, I'm not saying these guys don't have a chance to play at the major league level, but at this point they aren't what this trade hinges on. They are just two of a potential ten-ish guys that could be used to even the deal out to both sides satisfaction.

 

4) I'm not arguing if Perkins is better than Rodney, although Rodney's 2012 season is one of the two greatest seasons for a reliever ever, only rivaled by Eckersley's 1990 season, I'm saying that the Rays don't highly value the closer position. Here is a list of their closers for the last 8 years: 36yo Al Reyes who was coming off of TJ surgery, 38 & 39yo Troy Percival, 30yo Rafael Soriano whom they traded a bag of beans for, 35yo Kyle Farnsworth, 35 & 36yo Fernando Rodney who hadn't had an ERA below 4.20 in five seasons before signing with the Rays. Other than Soriano each of those players are old guys past their prime that hadn't been "closers" for at least a year (and in a couple cases had never been) before they signed cheaply with the Rays. The Rays have an uncanny ability to take an old has been and squeeze 1 or 2 good years of closing duty out at a cheap price.

 

5) You could end up being right about how teams view David Price's value. We won't know until a trade actually happens. Garza is a pretty poor comp though, so don't put any stock into his trade return (although you're underrating the return here, especially Olt who had vision problems this season but was a top 25 prospect to begin the season). Again, you're overrating the Twins prospects here, this time by quite a bit. The Rays don't value closers as I showed above so Perkins won't move the needle like you think, Berrios is a 100-200 prospect (where he sits depends on how you view his second half difficulties), and Kepler is no where near the top 100 after this season.

 

In the end you're left with a closer they don't want, a second baseman that is a poor defender (good bat though will make up for it hopefully), a potential middle to back of the rotation starting pitcher at low a-ball and a lottery ticket that has all kinds of questions that I mentioned earlier. I just don't see that package getting it done.

[Oxtung]

Is there really this much interest in David Price? He'd have to be traded this Fall to get two "cheap" ($11M-$15M) seasons, before he asks for $25M a season for 5-8 years at age 30.

 

I don't see that as a smart move for m(any) teams.

 

Not nessecarily that much interest. I was merely speculating. Though, aces are hard to come by and if you're in "win now" mode there really are only two ways to acquire one. Sign one in FA, which there aren't any this off season, or trade for one. Other potential trade targets include Cliff Lee, though he is 35 and is owed $25MM in both '14 and '15 with an achievable vesting option of $27.5MM in 2016 when he'll be 37, perhaps CC Sabathia if you think he'll bounce back and the Yankees want to get out from underneath his contract and your team can afford it, 38 year old RA Dickey if you think he'll bounce back to his 2012 form (he's signed through 2015 as well at which point he'll be 40 years old, he's cheap though), Matt Cain if the Giants are looking to rebuild and you think he'll return to pre-2013 form, and lastly perhaps Lester or Lackey from Boston if they believe one of their young arms is ready to step up and replace them (though that seems unlikely to me, also I'm not sure they qualify as "aces").

 

As you can see the market is quite slim and each one has big question marks. Price, by far is the best available (assuming the Rays want to move him). The Rangers, IMO, are the only team likely to make a deal for Price this off season. They have the prospects and the need.

[Oxtung]

Greinke to the Brewers. As a headliner, the Brewers gave up Escobar, BA's #12 prospect (in other words, very good but a far cry from Myers/Sano). After that, they had a bunch of marginal-to-decent prospects who weren't in BA's top 100 as of February 2010.

 

Johan is another decent comp (only one year but guaranteed an extension and a better pitcher than Shields, Greinke, and Price by a country mile). But we all know the Twins basically pulled an anti-Rays with that particular trade.

 

Odorizzi was a part of that Greinke trade too and had a very nice 2010 season just before the trade. Pre-2011 he was ranked #69 by BA. So they basically gave up one very highly rated player (Escobar) and a second top-100 prospect plus 2 sweeteners.

 

David Price is a better pitcher than Greinke was though and he doesn't have the mental questions (rightly or wrongly applied to Greinke).

 

I think the Santana trade was too long ago to draw many conclusions from as well. The way star pitchers (and pitchers in general) are valued has changed, IMO.

 

Perhaps a Sano, Rosario, May, Hicks package as a comp for the Greinke haul? If you don't like Hicks maybe Danny Santana? Sano is probably a little more highly regarded than Escobar was, Rosario and Odorizzi are close to a wash, May and Jeffress seem in the ball park, and Hicks/Santana are close to ready but question marks surround both like Lorenzo Cain. I think Price is a better pitcher than Greinke though, with less questions too, so perhaps upgrade May to Berrios? Or perhaps Sano's value is enough to carry the difference between Price and Greinke. Thoughts?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Odorizzi was a part of that Greinke trade too and had a very nice 2010 season just before the trade. Pre-2011 he was ranked #69 by BA. So they basically gave up one very highly rated player (Escobar) and a second top-100 prospect plus 2 sweeteners.

 

David Price is a better pitcher than Greinke was though and he doesn't have the mental questions (rightly or wrongly applied to Greinke).

 

I think the Santana trade was too long ago to draw many conclusions from as well. The way star pitchers (and pitchers in general) are valued has changed, IMO.

 

Perhaps a Sano, Rosario, May, Hicks package as a comp for the Greinke haul? If you don't like Hicks maybe Danny Santana? Sano is probably a little more highly regarded than Escobar was, Rosario and Odorizzi are close to a wash, May and Jeffress seem in the ball park, and Hicks/Santana are close to ready but question marks surround both like Lorenzo Cain. I think Price is a better pitcher than Greinke though, with less questions too, so perhaps upgrade May to Berrios? Or perhaps Sano's value is enough to carry the difference between Price and Greinke. Thoughts?

 

If you align stats to the time of the trade, Greinke was considered the better pitcher. Yeah, he struggled in 2010 (then again, Price wasn't great this season either) but his 2009 was probably better than any season Johan had, much less Price. Price is an ace. Greinke was an ACE. Possibly considered the best pitcher in baseball.

 

And you can't compare Sano to Escobar. Right or wrong, there is a huge perception difference between a top 5 prospect and a top 15 prospect. One is very good. The other is can't miss unless something goes horribly wrong.

[Oxtung]

If you align stats to the time of the trade, Greinke was considered the better pitcher. Yeah, he struggled in 2010 (then again, Price wasn't great this season either) but his 2009 was probably better than any season Johan had, much less Price. Price is an ace. Greinke was an ACE. Possibly considered the best pitcher in baseball.

 

And you can't compare Sano to Escobar. Right or wrong, there is a huge perception difference between a top 5 prospect and a top 15 prospect. One is very good. The other is can't miss unless something goes horribly wrong.

 

I'm don't think I agree with you on Price vs. Greinke. Greinke certainly had that phenomenal season and it was better than anything Price has put up. However, when comparing their statistics, up to this season for Price and to the point Greinke was traded, Price is equal or better across the board.

 

Price had a very good year this season. He was bad to start with then sat out a couple games, presumably an injury, then was phenomenal over his last 18 starts. Greinke on the other hand was the definition of average (ERA+ 100) the season before he was traded and there was nothing to point to where a GM could say, "oh clearly there was something wrong, it got fixed, and Price is now back to his ace-like ways."

 

Another way to look at it, though I'm not sure how much weight it should carry, is that Greinke had that phenomenal year but other than that one year he didn't even receive votes for any other major award. Price on the other hand is a 3 time All-Star (Greinke 1), won the Cy Young award (like Greinke) and finished runner up a second time (unlike Greinke).

 

Anyways, moving on because we've likely hashed that to death, I'm not sure you're correct about the difference between Sano and, let's say, Addison Russell who will likely end up around 12 when the rankings come out. Sano certainly has his share of pluses but he has holes in his game just like almost every other prospect. There are plenty of top #5 "can't miss" prospects that do in fact miss. I would agree with your statement about a clear cut #1 prospect like Buxton, Trout or Mauer who appear to have no real holes in their game but that isn't Sano.

 

Still, in trying to reach a consensus, what do you think a comparable set of current Twins prospects are to those in the Greinke trade? I'm trying to come up with a set for the Greinke and Sheilds trade so that we can have a better idea of what it might actually cost the Twins if they were to trade for Price.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Still, in trying to reach a consensus, what do you think a comparable set of current Twins prospects are to those in the Greinke trade? I'm trying to come up with a set for the Greinke and Sheilds trade so that we can have a better idea of what it might actually cost the Twins if they were to trade for Price.

 

Really, I think you're not that far off the mark. I'd say Sano, May, Rosario, and Danny Santana would be a good comp. Hicks is still regarded too highly to be on that list, I think. I don't like the Sano/Escobar comp that much but the Twins don't have anyone between Sano and Meyer so it'll have to do.

 

As for Greinke, we'll just have to disagree. His 2009 was so much better than anything Price has posted (and is the closest thing to a 1999 Pedro we've seen since Martinez was in his prime) that it (unfairly or not) skewed the perception of each pitcher.

 

And, while Johan may have been traded a half decade ago, he's a far better pitcher than either Greinke or Price. The comp has merit, I think. The evaluation tools may have changed a bit since then but Johan was just so much better than Greinke and Price that it more than compensates for the difference. Johan had four seasons with an ERA+ over 150.

 

Greinke, Shields, and Price have one combined.

 

God, it's frustrating to go back and look at Johan's numbers as a Twin.

[cmathewson]

I agree with the overall sentiment of this post, except in special circumstances. For example, when you are missing that one piece for a championship. But I'm not worried. Ryan rarely trades prospects. The last time he did, I believe, was when he traded a couple of relief prospects for Castillo. That was a good trade because it solidified a position of need and the prospects didn't ever do anything. But I remember some members of the community complained about it at the time.

 

The last time we traded a prospect for an established player (under BS), it was a total disaster. Considering how far away this team is from contention, I don't see it happening.

[Major League Ready]

KC has Zimmer coming and Ventura has already shown up. Nice if they keep Santana, but they'll be fine if he leaves.

 

I am not quite sure of your position here. Are you saying these two (Alex Meyer) equivalent prospects will be able to match Santan's production this year. Therefore, KC will have an equivalent chance to make a playoff run this year or are you saying they will be fine long-term?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am not quite sure of your position here. Are you saying these two (Alex Meyer) equivalent prospects will be able to match Santan's production this year. Therefore, KC will have an equivalent chance to make a playoff run this year or are you saying they will be fine long-term?

 

Yeah... Santana was a 127 ERA+, 2.8 WAR player in 2013. The Royals are going to struggle to replace his numbers and it's quite a leap to assume that Ventura will come anywhere close to that in 2014. Zimmer won't be a factor in the first few months of 2014, methinks.

 

Of course, there's also a damned good chance that Santana won't come close to that in 2014 either... But we're talking about replacing Santana's 2013, not his potential 2014.

 

But if you're talking long-term future of the Royals, yeah, it's a decent bet that at least one of them will step up and be a factor.

[ThePuck]

I am not quite sure of your position here. Are you saying these two (Alex Meyer) equivalent prospects will be able to match Santan's production this year. Therefore, KC will have an equivalent chance to make a playoff run this year or are you saying they will be fine long-term?

 

I'm saying they have arms on the brink to help cushion the loss of Santana. Now, on top of that, as late as early August, they had 5 players who had a combined OPS of 500 points lower than it was just the year before. With the turnaround some of those guys had as the end (living up to what they were capable of all year), I expect that will continue and, with the addition of Ventura for a full season and Zimmer probably mid-season, I think they will be fine.