Draft prospects

[James]

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

 

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

Well said. Perfect example of this: Mike Piazza was selected with 1390th pick in the 62nd round of the draft in 1988. How did no one else select him until then? Everyone else must have been idiots for passing him by, right?

 

There are going to be first round picks that never make it and there are going to be later picks that turn out to be superstars. MLB draft is a crapshoot. Yes, I know scouting should help find better potential player, but they don't always pan out and there are always guys that perform much better than the potential assigned to them by the scouts.

[MWLFan]

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

 

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

Jim Crikket is such a downer. Trying to take all the fun out of bitching about how stupid the Twins are. Well sir, you shall not take our mojo. We will still whine and demand for Vavra, Gardy or Childress to be fired no matter who the Twins screw up and take at number two. Just like we did last time they had that slot. Then you watch next year when we have the number one pick! Failure will be a certainty. Because we the denizons of the deep message board know better, right up until the point this player turns into a star in which case we reserve the right forget all that we have written before and praise him constantly until he fails in the "clutch", has too high a WHIP for our taste, see his range drop to Valenica levels or is started to be refered to as a battler. So there!

 

P.S. I would like the catcher as the college arms make me nervous they will fall off sometime in instructional league after being abused by their coaches. I see most of those guys as highly probable clients of Dr. Andrews. But then again how many of us really know wtf to make of the MLB draft.

[tpb8]

If 18HR/72RBI guys are a dime-a-dozen, why don't the Twins have a bunch of them?

 

So, only a 40HR power hitter is worth the #1 pick in the draft? I guess a guy like Mike Trout wouldn't be worth a #1 pick this year.

 

Name 1 guaranteed superstar in this year's draft. (You can't. There's no such thing)

[GooseBuster04]

I've been thinking about the Draft some lately, and everyone seems to think this year's draft class is down. Would there be any chance the the Twins could use the following strategy?

 

1. Draft the best player available for the Twins at #2 (Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, etc.)

2. If Giolito is available with the 1st pick of the supplemental round, pick him.

3. Throw whatever is needed (i.e. #1 or #2 pick money) at Giolito to sign him.

4. Offer #33 pick money to the #2 pick. If he signs, great. If not, we get the #3 pick in the 2013 draft which may be deeper than this years draft.

 

With the above strategy, the Twins could potentially get top 5 talent in Giolito in the supplemental round, the #3 pick in a potentially deeper draft next year, and their 2013 pick next year (at this point, it looks like a #1 pick).

 

Obviously, a lot of assumptions are being made by myself. I don't know if the new CBA would still allow the Twins to get the #3 pick next year if they don't sign this year's #2 pick. I also don't follow amateur baseball enough to know if the 2013 draft is expected to be deeper than this year's. I'm just curious what everyone else thinks of this as a potential strategy for the Twins.

[Steve Lein]

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

 

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

You say that like the people replying in this particular forum are the ONLY ones in the world who do/will-do this...

 

You hope your scouts pick out a guy at the #2 pick who will make it, and make it in a big way. But if I'm using the scouting scale as an overall rating of a prospect, there are certainly draft prospects who are, say a 30/50 (present/MLB potential) that will actually turn into a 70, and guys who right now are a 40/80 who never advance past a 40 or never make it. You're obviously going to pick the guy who you rate as a 40/80, though. There's nothing scientific about it. A guy's either got it, works really hard to get it, or squanders their skills by not working at it diligently after being drafted, and you never really know which type will show up once they start playing professional games and where or when those qualities might change as they move up the ladder.

 

Hindsight is certainly 20/20, but don't belittle the forum on those terms, it's the same thing EVERYWHERE.

[nicksaviking]

I still have a hard time seeing Giolito falling that far. There are several teams with two first round picks, those are usually the teams who take chances. Even so, with his stock rising again, he might get back in the top 10 if not higher.

[ScottyB]

If 18HR/72RBI guys are a dime-a-dozen, why don't the Twins have a bunch of them?

 

 

The Twins have had a number of these guys - they just choose to not hang onto them - Ortiz, Hunter, Kubel, Cuddyer, Hardy and Thome are just a few that come to mind off the top of my head.

[ScottyB]

So, only a 40HR power hitter is worth the #1 pick in the draft?

Not saying only a 40 HR power guy is worth the first pick. Just saying that the Twins have 6-10 'toolsy' OF'ers already in the system. This team hoards prospects and doesn't make trades. Instead we end up cutting them after they've lost their value instead of bundling them to fill needs. Not all of our OF prospects or current guys like Span are going to be able to play together. Why not trade while they have value instead of losing guys like Slowey after he became worthless?

 

Who's the last #1 type pitcher that the Twins actually drafted (not Rule 5) - Frank Viola? Actually, probably Garza, but they traded him. Their poor judgement of pitchers is the reason we can't win in the playoffs. We have a tendency to draft #3 & #4 starters.

[gunnarthor]

I've been thinking about the Draft some lately, and everyone seems to think this year's draft class is down. Would there be any chance the the Twins could use the following strategy?

 

1. Draft the best player available for the Twins at #2 (Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, etc.)

2. If Giolito is available with the 1st pick of the supplemental round, pick him.

3. Throw whatever is needed (i.e. #1 or #2 pick money) at Giolito to sign him.

4. Offer #33 pick money to the #2 pick. If he signs, great. If not, we get the #3 pick in the 2013 draft which may be deeper than this years draft.

 

With the above strategy, the Twins could potentially get top 5 talent in Giolito in the supplemental round, the #3 pick in a potentially deeper draft next year, and their 2013 pick next year (at this point, it looks like a #1 pick).

 

Obviously, a lot of assumptions are being made by myself. I don't know if the new CBA would still allow the Twins to get the #3 pick next year if they don't sign this year's #2 pick. I also don't follow amateur baseball enough to know if the 2013 draft is expected to be deeper than this year's. I'm just curious what everyone else thinks of this as a potential strategy for the Twins.

There's a few problems with treating the #2 pick so poorly, first, they'd be much less likely to sign and either reenter the draft next year or play a year with the Saints. It would also destroy the Twins reputation with young talent, a group the Twins really, really need. Second, losing out on Zunino (or whoever) to pick third next year hurts the club. That pick might not want to sign with the Twins, b/c of their rep so we're going to have to narrow our field of prospects. And giving up talent this year just pushes the rebuild down the road a year. The #2 in this draft is a good pick. Whoever we grab is likely to be our #2 prospect and a top 50 (or better) prospect in all baseball. A few of the college arms could move quite quickly to help our rotation. Zunino's bat should move quickly, too. Also, Giolito isn't likely to be available at 32.

[drivlikejehu]

If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, that slot money is gone from their cap. So it could not be used on other players.

 

However, a team can spend less than the slot amount and use the 'savings' on other picks. I think the Twins would be wise to consider making a deal with a slightly-lower rated player and using the savings to sign quality prospects who might slip. Most teams wouldn't be able to do this because their draft pool isn't significant enough to really find much savings.

 

Let's say a prospect like Max Fried was expected to go in the 8-10 range, where the maximum bonus is around $2.8 million. What if the Twins call up Fried's 'advisor' and said, "we'll take him at #2 for $4 million." That is more than even the #5 slot can offer without going well over the limit. How could he possibly say no? Unless a player has a real likelihood of going #3 or maybe #4, the Twins could easily save $2-3 million and get a high quality prospect.

 

The Twins could add multiple high quality prospects that way without losing too much. They won't do it but it seems like a good strategy for this draft, which doesn't really have standouts at the top of the draft like some classes do.

[gunnarthor]

If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, that slot money is gone from their cap. So it could not be used on other players.

 

However, a team can spend less than the slot amount and use the 'savings' on other picks. I think the Twins would be wise to consider making a deal with a slightly-lower rated player and using the savings to sign quality prospects who might slip. Most teams wouldn't be able to do this because their draft pool isn't significant enough to really find much savings.

 

Let's say a prospect like Max Fried was expected to go in the 8-10 range, where the maximum bonus is around $2.8 million. What if the Twins call up Fried's 'advisor' and said, "we'll take him at #2 for $4 million." That is more than even the #5 slot can offer without going well over the limit. How could he possibly say no? Unless a player has a real likelihood of going #3 or maybe #4, the Twins could easily save $2-3 million and get a high quality prospect.

 

The Twins could add multiple high quality prospects that way without losing too much. They won't do it but it seems like a good strategy for this draft, which doesn't really have standouts at the top of the draft like some classes do.

Yeah, I've suggested something like that elsewhere. I like the idea but there is some downside - 1) you're not getting the best player 2) you don't know if they player will honor the agreement and if he holds out for a lot more, your entire draft could be in trouble 3) this draft isn't so deep that you want to ignore the best players at the top to take a few more Boyd/Harrison type players in the mid rounds. (Pirates did this a few years ago when they drafted Sanchez #4 expecting to use more money in the later rounds and stockpiling a few million for Miguel Sano. Didn't work out so well. Now they've gone back to usually targeting the best player.

 

I can see where the Twins decide that Gausman/Buxton/Zunino and Zimmer are all equally valid at #2 and decide to take the cheapest one but I don't think they'd do anything more than that, at least this year.

[drivlikejehu]

Yeah, I've suggested something like that elsewhere. I like the idea but there is some downside - 1) you're not getting the best player 2) you don't know if they player will honor the agreement and if he holds out for a lot more, your entire draft could be in trouble 3) this draft isn't so deep that you want to ignore the best players at the top to take a few more Boyd/Harrison type players in the mid rounds. (Pirates did this a few years ago when they drafted Sanchez #4 expecting to use more money in the later rounds and stockpiling a few million for Miguel Sano. Didn't work out so well. Now they've gone back to usually targeting the best player.

 

I can see where the Twins decide that Gausman/Buxton/Zunino and Zimmer are all equally valid at #2 and decide to take the cheapest one but I don't think they'd do anything more than that, at least this year.

Yeah I mean, it only works if they have a relationship with the advisor/family and are confident the deal will hold. Rarely does something go wrong in those cases, and with the compensation pick next year it wouldn't be a catastrophe anyway, especially since they have extra 2012 picks.

 

The difference this year is that most teams will be more or less unable to sign guys who fall in the draft. In past years, a number of teams took advantage of high school players who fell over signability concerns.... Red Sox, Tigers, etc. Now that option has been greatly restricted. So a much larger group of talented high school players will still be on the board this year after the first few rounds.

 

It's just hard for me to believe it's better to have Zimmer than to have a ~#10 guy like Fried or Shaffer + 2 late first-round types.

[Hardluckmnfan]

where do u stand on the top hs pitching prospect. By all accounts he has the best chance to be a true #1 ace type pitcher Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Calif.).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

where do u stand on the top hs pitching prospect. By all accounts he has the best chance to be a true #1 ace type pitcher Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Calif.).

Giolito's stock is up in the air right now because of the arm injury. He will have a chance to regain his status as a top 5 pick if he is able to show that he is healthy before the draft. I'm sure all teams - Twins included - will thoroughly go over records and request MRIs, etc. because he could go anywhere. To be completely honest, elbow injuries are not something the Twins have done a great job of preventing or rehabbing before or after surgery, so I would have a hard time rolling the dice on a guy that already has an issue. On the other hand, I'd much rather have a guy miss a year and push back development time than miss a year where's he's costing the team $10m.

 

I guess that means I'd pass at #2 and if I have the chance to draft him later, maybe I draft him and see if I can get creative in how I spend my money.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Law released his top 100 today. Some notables:

 

Buxton stayed at 1. Correa and Gausman moved up to 2 and 3. Zunino and Fried round out the top 5. Appel has dropped to 6.

 

Rochester Century P Mitch Brown shows up at 45. Would appear to be a likely target for the Twins in the supplemental round.

 

Jorge Fernandez, a Puerto Rican CF, shows up at 96. That is usually around the time the Twins take a prospect from Puerto Rico.

[gunnarthor]

Law released his top 100 today. Some notables:

 

Buxton stayed at 1. Correa and Gausman moved up to 2 and 3. Zunino and Fried round out the top 5. Appel has dropped to 6.

 

Rochester Century P Mitch Brown shows up at 45. Would appear to be a likely target for the Twins in the supplemental round.

 

Jorge Fernandez, a Puerto Rican CF, shows up at 96. That is usually around the time the Twins take a prospect from Puerto Rico.

Good point on Fernandez. Twins do a pretty good job of getting talent out of PR. I expect the Twins will also grab MN pitcher TJ Oakes sometime in the 5-7 rounds.

[James]

Law released his top 100 today. Some notables:

 

Buxton stayed at 1. Correa and Gausman moved up to 2 and 3. Zunino and Fried round out the top 5. Appel has dropped to 6.

 

Rochester Century P Mitch Brown shows up at 45. Would appear to be a likely target for the Twins in the supplemental round.

 

Jorge Fernandez, a Puerto Rican CF, shows up at 96. That is usually around the time the Twins take a prospect from Puerto Rico.

I would not be against the Twins going after Gausman. He's profiling as a #2/potential #1 starter. He apparently has been much more effective since switching his out pitch from a curve ball to a slider. His change up is supposed to be good as well. I would not be disappointed with that pick. A case could be made that he was the BPA, and fills an organizational need.

[John Bonnes]

I seriously wonder if the Twins would go after Buxton if he was available. Or would consider Correa. Either would be a gutsy move considering how much they need pitching. I'm not sure I'd even want them to.

[shs_59]

Things change as the draft nears, but right now I think Carlos Correa looks like the best prospect in the entire draft.

 

I sure hope the Twins take Correa (assuming the Astros do not) , that way between him and Sano they'd have their 3B of the future, surely, and maybe Sano can play 1B/RF/DH... Correa is likely a 3B down the line but could stick at SS.

Correa is looking more and more like the TOP positional prospect in the draft now.

 

I'm 100% in the mindset that their is NO ACE in this draft, you take the TOP positional guy at pick #2 and take pitching pitching pitching with picks 32, 42 and 70 whatver.

Right?

I'm with John Bonnes...

 

my guess if i had to put out today:

 

1. Astros - Correa

2. Twins - Really hoping for Correa, but otherwise Gausman ? maybe?

3. Mariners - Zunino (catcher)

4. Orioles - Buxton - John Sickles doesn't completely believe in his bat

5. Royals - Appel

6. Cubs - Albert Almora

7. Padres - Kyle Zimmer

8. Pirates - Devin Marrero

9. Marlins - Fried, Smoral or Stroman

10. Rockies - probably a pitcher Beck, Heaney, Fried, Smoral, or Virant.

[Thrylos]

Good point on Fernandez. Twins do a pretty good job of getting talent out of PR. I expect the Twins will also grab MN pitcher TJ Oakes sometime in the 5-7 rounds.

I think that Oakes will go higher than that...

 

Hate to say it, but the last Minnesotan who was drafted in pretty high roundand made it to the show was Glen Perkins. (And I totally hope that AJ Pettersen, Kyle Knutson and Austin Malinowski reverse this trend btw ) But there were some serious busts including Derek McCallum and Kyle Carr, so they should go with talent vs. home towns.

 

The more and more I think about the #2 overall pick is that they should go with the pitcher with the highest upside. And that would be Giolioto right now. They need to to their due dilligence etc. but they should not settle for an OF, SS or a C. Now, if there were a Bryce Harper type player, they should take him no matter what position he plays. But there isn't.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Hate to say it, but the last Minnesotan who was drafted in pretty high round and made it to the show was Glen Perkins.

 

Brad Hand. Not that he's had major league success, but he's still young, and did make the show.

 

The more and more I think about the #2 overall pick is that they should go with the pitcher with the highest upside. And that would be Giolioto right now.

 

You gotta balance upside with downside. And Giolito's current status is hard to ignore. When it's said and done, I believe the Twins will go a "safer" route and tonight, if I had to guess, I'd say Kevin Gausman. But between now and then, who knows...

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I seriously wonder if the Twins would go after Buxton if he was available. Or would consider Correa. Either would be a gutsy move considering how much they need pitching. I'm not sure I'd even want them to.

Big picture, the Twins probably draft pretty high in 2013 and 2014. Not saying that can't take a pitcher high in those drafts too... but I don't think - as much as I sometimes would like to - they're set on taking a pitcher.

[DJSim22]

I think that Oakes will go higher than that...

 

Hate to say it, but the last Minnesotan who was drafted in pretty high roundand made it to the show was Glen Perkins. (And I totally hope that AJ Pettersen, Kyle Knutson and Austin Malinowski reverse this trend btw ) But there were some serious busts including Derek McCallum and Kyle Carr, so they should go with talent vs. home towns.

 

The more and more I think about the #2 overall pick is that they should go with the pitcher with the highest upside. And that would be Giolioto right now. They need to to their due dilligence etc. but they should not settle for an OF, SS or a C. Now, if there were a Bryce Harper type player, they should take him no matter what position he plays. But there isn't.

True that McCallum and Carr didn't pan out, but I think Oakes is far superior to Carr. I am of the opinion that Oakes is the best Gophers pitcher since Perkins. I also think Oakes is the best "pitcher" I've seen with the Gophers. He gets plety of strikeouts, but he really knows how to pitcher and work a hitter. I think he has a good shot at making the show one day.

[tpb8]

I think it's fair to say that the Twins are looking to stock up on pitching in the draft, but i don't think that means they're set on using the #2 pick on a pitcher. None of the college pitchers are "ace" quality. I think they'll take a position player (Correa, Buxton or Zunino) with the #2 pick and then stock up on arms after that. You don't draft for need in MLB. Not with the #2 pick. That guy has to have the potential to be a star. If none of the college arms have that tag they're not going to use the #2 pick on them, they'll wait to grab pitching with their supplemental picks.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Baseball America released mock draft 1.0 today.

 

It had the Astros kicking off with Appel, though the argument was made for Buxton.

 

"Scouting director Bobby Heck has taken an up-the-middle position player with his top pick in each of his four drafts, and he and his staff are believed to favor Buxton, a five-tool center fielder."

 

It goes on to say that the owner appears to want to take a MLB-close-to-ready pitcher.

 

Callis predicted the Twins follow - and later confirmed this approach on Twitter - with best player available... and that's Byron Buxton.

 

"Minnesota needs plenty of pitching help too, but it will set its draft board and take the best player available. That should be Buxton, though Zunino would enable the Twins to shift Joe Mauer to a less taxing position."

 

I'm not Jim Callis or BA or pretend to be... but if I had to bet on how the Twins draft board looks on June 4th, I'm guessing it's Buxton/Gausman or Gausman/Buxton.

 

You can view the whole first-round mock here. You can also read a good story on Buxton, or should I say "Buck", here.

 

I also feel that since I've mentioned him on the board a few times, I should mention him again since BA is showing him love. Him being Mitchell Brown from Rochester, MN.

 

From their latest draft tracker (membership required):

 

"I saw three plus pitches and one average pitch," a scout said after the game. "It was maybe the best high school game I've seen pitched in 10 years." Throws mid-90s with a plus cutter and plus curve. Weight room guy.

 

If he didn't before, he has my vote for a supplemental-round pick.

[30whales]

I really like Kevin Gausman, not that I know anything about any of these players. He does have a really weird ritual though. When he is pitching, he eats 4 powdered donuts every inning.

[Mike Sixel]

There are 10 aces on the planet, of course none of these guys look like aces.....pass on them all, then wonder why they have no pitching. How has that whole "draft the best toolsy OF" thing worked the last few years? This farm system has delivered nothing in three years...I'm starting to wonder if it even matters who they pick right now.

[tpb8]

There are 10 aces on the planet, of course none of these guys look like aces.....pass on them all, then wonder why they have no pitching. How has that whole "draft the best toolsy OF" thing worked the last few years? This farm system has delivered nothing in three years...I'm starting to wonder if it even matters who they pick right now.

Can you list the Twins' history of recent success drafting collegiate pitchers? Gibson. Wimmers. Serious arm injuries. No MLB starts yet. Now tell me again how important it is to draft a college pitcher becuase "the Twins need pitching help". We draft a guy HOPING he might become an ace, even though nothing in his prior performance shows that potential? No thanks. I'll take the "toolsy" HS player or the stud college position player. Hunter worked out fine. Revere has seen some big league time at a very young age. Hicks is on track.

[Mike Sixel]

List the recent success for drafting hitters? Just because they suck at drafting and developing doesn't mean they should stop drafting players. Zero hitters have come up from the minors in three years, and none are on the horizon.....Look, I'm ok drafting all the hitters you want, but ONLY if you are willing to deal for or sign legit pitchers. If you refuse to do that, you have to draft some....Revere has shown nothing to indicate he's a legit starting OFer, yet. Hicks is all hype, and mediocre production so far. Our definition of "on track" is very different.

[gunnarthor]

Zero hitters have come up from the minors in three years, and none are on the horizon.

Huh? Valencia, Plouffe, Benson, Dozier, Revere, Parmelee etc have all come up in the last three years. If you mean no hitter drafted in the last three years has come up yet, then I think you have to calm down a bit. It takes a lot of time for players to move through the minors and the Twins haven't focused on hitters. The 09 Twins drafted 4 pitchers before a hitter. The 10 team first hitter was the 71st overall pick (Nico Goodrum), Rosario was taken 135 overall. 11 we picked Michael (high A now) first (30th overall) followed by a HS prospect (EST).