Joe Ryan, Jose Berrios, and the Twins' Next Homegrown Pitching Gamble

[Nashvilletwin]

12 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

The CBA can't change "everything." A more even playing field will improve the odds, but over time teams that make better decisions will outperform regardless of economic environment.

100%!  A salary cap/floor CBA may help on the margin, but for the Twins to truly be competitive, they must make better roster building decisions and better transition their successful minor league talent into average or above every day major league players - two areas in which they’ve had very little success since  Falvey and Rocco showed up.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

By that standard, Sonny Gray was a homegrown pitcher 

My point is arguing “homegrown” or not doesn’t further the discussion.

the point of the article is do they extend, or trade a guy who they got the full value of pre-arb salary and 2/3 of arbitration discount.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

18 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

If I purchase a tomato sapling from my local garden center, transplant it to my garden, water it, fertilize it, remove the weeds, do I not get to eat homegrown tomatoes? Do I have to plant that tomato plant from seeds? Do I have to grow my own seeds, or am I allowed to buy them?

do I have to draft a pitcher out of college? High school? Genetically engineer a pitcher in a lab?

In your analogy that would be homegrown, but you analogy isn't even close to what happened. If we are calling Ryan a tomato, the Twins got him when he darn ripe already. and the Twins used some spice and techniques to turn him into a pretty darn got salsa or marinara, and should have sold that salsa or marinara when it was at is peak flavor (trade value). 

IMO homegrown doesn't have to be a guy you draft or sign at a young age, it just means somebody that you acquired somehow and spent some time in minors making major league ready (SWR, Rojas for example), I wouldn't include Abel in homegrown, I would put him in the developed category (hopefully) with Ryan. To build a pitching staff you need to get guys from other teams and either grow or develop them, it is OK the Twins didn't grow Ryan, they further developed him and turned him into a two time all star and should be given credit for that, but saying he was home grown diminishes that because it makes people look like they are making stuff up to prove a point. 

People throw around things and use words that aren't true trying to make their point. For example the author of this article loves to throw around the word young when the players aren't young, they are inexperienced (Matthew/Prielipp), people are actually saying we got Ryan young, he didn't make his first pitch for the Twins until he was 25 years old (sure compared to us that is young) but what does that make Rojas, SWR and Jenkins for example infants, toddlers? 

Berrios was absoletly a home grown, Ryan was further developed, isn't that enough? 

 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

34 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

My point is arguing “homegrown” or not doesn’t further the discussion.

the point of the article is do they extend, or trade a guy who they got the full value of pre-arb salary and 2/3 of arbitration discount.

Seems pretty simple, you try to extend a guy that is entering FA during his prime years, and you trade a guy that you have controlled though age 30 or older, doesn't matter how you acquired them. Both ways can come back to bite you, but the probability shows you have a better chance at not being bitten by doing this. (this is why teams sign their young guys (Actually young) to extensions to lock them up though their primes, and when they don't or won't they trade them (Sota for example) and get a haul.

[Riverbrian]

The definition of homegrown? Whatever you all decide will be just fine with me.

I recommend not getting distracted by that debate because this is really about one thing: VALUE.

Joe Ryan probably had a value of $7–9 million when the Twins acquired him. Nelson Cruz was having a tremendous season. At the time of the trade, he was hitting .294 with a .907 OPS, 19 home runs and 50 RBI. He was a two-month rental with approximately $5 million in remaining salary.

Tampa Bay decided it was worth taking on that salary and giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to get a King Kong bat for the stretch run. The Twins also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the transaction who is currently a pretty good relief pitcher for the Marlins right now. Faucher is value that walked out the door. 

Fast forward to Joe Ryan's time with the Twins. His trade value probably peaked somewhere in the upper $60 million range. Today, I would estimate it's considerably lower, perhaps around $17 million.

Those are my estimates, but consider the opportunity cost. The Twins potentially passed up an opportunity to acquire a Walker Jenkins-type prospect or perhaps two Culpepper-type prospects by holding onto Ryan rather than trading him when his value was higher.

That's what I'm talking about. It's not just what a player gives you on the field. It's also what you could have received in exchange for him. The extreme value comes from young talent with years of control at a low price tag. The Twins need to get better at this and I'm not convinced they are even trying. 

Now let's talk about an extension.

A Joe Ryan extension would probably cost at least $100 million over four years. That's a $25 million annual commitment.

Here's the important part: You would be eliminating much of his surplus trade value. It doesn't mean Ryan suddenly becomes a worse pitcher. It means you've committed a substantial amount of money to his projected production, making him much more difficult to trade without retaining salary or accepting a lesser return.

If you believe in Ryan, you can certainly make that commitment. But you have to understand what $25 million a year does to your budget. The Twins are not the Phillies.

It's about value. The Twins need to understand value a whole lot better than they do.

They actually did well with José Berríos.

Berríos had approximately one-plus seasons of control remaining when the Twins traded him to Toronto. The Jays probably overpaid at the time. Austin Martin was their No. 2 prospect, and Simeon Woods Richardson was their No. 4. Both were highly regarded prospects, and Martin was also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball.

The Jays were willing to pay that price because they wanted Berríos in their rotation for the long haul. He was still in his 20s, and they believed he was worth a substantial long-term commitment.

But the moment Berríos signed that extension, the economics of his contract changed. His surplus trade value took a significant hit. That's perfectly fine for Toronto if its intention was to keep him for the duration of the contract. But it changes the equation if you're trying to trade him.

After some rough years and declining performance relative to his salary, Berríos has become a much more difficult contract to move.

Unfortunately, the Twins have also struggled to convert the value of the two highly ranked prospects they received in return.

SWR is no longer with the organization. We essentially gave up on that investment.

Austin Martin, who had tremendous value as a prospect at the time of the trade, has yet to develop into the everyday impact player the Twins hoped they were getting. His current role has been more of a utility player than the kind of player who generates significant trade value.

And that's the bigger problem.

If the question is whether the Twins should extend Joe Ryan, the answer is that they certainly could. But the organization has to produce VALUE elsewhere to offset that financial commitment.

In other words, they can't afford to make the same mistakes with Austin Martin and SWR. They can't turn Emmanuel Rodriguez into another Trevor Larnach.

The Twins have to get better at recognizing, developing, preserving and converting player value.

You can't continually spend the organization's accumulated value without replenishing it somewhere else.

That's how organizations like Cleveland and Milwaukee remain competitive without the financial resources of Philadelphia or New York.

Get in the correct sandbox before you start to play. 

 

[Linus]

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The definition of homegrown? Whatever you all decide will be just fine with me.

I recommend not getting distracted by that debate because this is really about one thing: VALUE.

Joe Ryan probably had a value of $7–9 million when the Twins acquired him. Nelson Cruz was having a tremendous season. At the time of the trade, he was hitting .294 with a .907 OPS, 19 home runs and 50 RBI. He was a two-month rental with approximately $5 million in remaining salary.

Tampa Bay decided it was worth taking on that salary and giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to get a King Kong bat for the stretch run. The Twins also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the transaction who is currently a pretty good relief pitcher for the Marlins right now. Faucher is value that walked out the door. 

Fast forward to Joe Ryan's time with the Twins. His trade value probably peaked somewhere in the upper $60 million range. Today, I would estimate it's considerably lower, perhaps around $17 million.

Those are my estimates, but consider the opportunity cost. The Twins potentially passed up an opportunity to acquire a Walker Jenkins-type prospect or perhaps two Culpepper-type prospects by holding onto Ryan rather than trading him when his value was higher.

That's what I'm talking about. It's not just what a player gives you on the field. It's also what you could have received in exchange for him. The extreme value comes from young talent with years of control at a low price tag. The Twins need to get better at this and I'm not convinced they are even trying. 

Now let's talk about an extension.

A Joe Ryan extension would probably cost at least $100 million over four years. That's a $25 million annual commitment.

Here's the important part: You would be eliminating much of his surplus trade value. It doesn't mean Ryan suddenly becomes a worse pitcher. It means you've committed a substantial amount of money to his projected production, making him much more difficult to trade without retaining salary or accepting a lesser return.

If you believe in Ryan, you can certainly make that commitment. But you have to understand what $25 million a year does to your budget. The Twins are not the Phillies.

It's about value. The Twins need to understand value a whole lot better than they do.

They actually did well with José Berríos.

Berríos had approximately one-plus seasons of control remaining when the Twins traded him to Toronto. The Jays probably overpaid at the time. Austin Martin was their No. 2 prospect, and Simeon Woods Richardson was their No. 4. Both were highly regarded prospects, and Martin was also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball.

The Jays were willing to pay that price because they wanted Berríos in their rotation for the long haul. He was still in his 20s, and they believed he was worth a substantial long-term commitment.

But the moment Berríos signed that extension, the economics of his contract changed. His surplus trade value took a significant hit. That's perfectly fine for Toronto if its intention was to keep him for the duration of the contract. But it changes the equation if you're trying to trade him.

After some rough years and declining performance relative to his salary, Berríos has become a much more difficult contract to move.

Unfortunately, the Twins have also struggled to convert the value of the two highly ranked prospects they received in return.

SWR is no longer with the organization. We essentially gave up on that investment.

Austin Martin, who had tremendous value as a prospect at the time of the trade, has yet to develop into the everyday impact player the Twins hoped they were getting. His current role has been more of a utility player than the kind of player who generates significant trade value.

And that's the bigger problem.

If the question is whether the Twins should extend Joe Ryan, the answer is that they certainly could. But the organization has to produce VALUE elsewhere to offset that financial commitment.

In other words, they can't afford to make the same mistakes with Austin Martin and SWR. They can't turn Emmanuel Rodriguez into another Trevor Larnach.

The Twins have to get better at recognizing, developing, preserving and converting player value.

You can't continually spend the organization's accumulated value without replenishing it somewhere else.

That's how organizations like Cleveland and Milwaukee remain competitive without the financial resources of Philadelphia or New York.

Get in the correct sandbox before you start to play. 

 

This is a thought provoking post. First, I had forgotten about Faucher - man the Twins have let a bunch of good relief pitchers slip between their fingers. That’s a problem. Second, I appreciate the observations about Opportunity Cost. Many times roster decisions are judged solely by what happened which is a limited analysis. Opportunity Cost is useful in that it incorporates the idea of what could have happened in order to fully evaluate the value of a given decision. In other words, what was the value difference between the best decision available and the decision that you made. There can be many layers to this. In the case of Berrios, the trade return was likely not optimal but they also received the value of not paying him the $117 million required to extend him. Ostensibly that money was used to obtain other value. Anyway, I appreciate the discussion. 

[Herbie]

13 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

He made his Major League debut in 2021 with the Twins. He had two minor league seasons in the Rays system, he had 4 years of college ball too, I bet he had 4+ years of high school ball and little league before that.

Every Major Leaguer in the history of the game has played baseball before becoming a major leaguer. Why argue the semantics? Why does “Homegrown” matter?

The article headline and the contents led us to believe it was about HOMEGROWN talent. It was misleading. I could care less how Ryan was brought up or where. Making rediculous comparisons to tomatoes and now saying he even played little league is nothing more than taking shots at me. Do you really think I don't know he likely played little league and high school baseball. What is your point other than to try to insult me? I was not the only one to make the reference to Ryan NOT being homegrown talent. As an author, why point out that Berrios was homegrown talent, even adding it to the headline, when being homegrown had very little to nothing to do with the article in the first place? Constructive criticism is one thing, taking shots at someones intelligence is another. A "Community Moderator" should know the difference.

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is a thought provoking post. First, I had forgotten about Faucher - man the Twins have let a bunch of good relief pitchers slip between their fingers. That’s a problem. Second, I appreciate the observations about Opportunity Cost. Many times roster decisions are judged solely by what happened which is a limited analysis. Opportunity Cost is useful in that it incorporates the idea of what could have happened in order to fully evaluate the value of a given decision. In other words, what was the value difference between the best decision available and the decision that you made. There can be many layers to this. In the case of Berrios, the trade return was likely not optimal but they also received the value of not paying him the $117 million required to extend him. Ostensibly that money was used to obtain other value. Anyway, I appreciate the discussion. 

Too many TwinsDaily posters analyze players based purely on personal feelings.

 

The truth is... every single player represents a money, budget, and value discussion.

 

It's impossible to have a realistic baseball debate without looking at the financial footprint a guy leaves on the payroll.

 

Even my constant focus on platooning comes back to this: while it helps development, the core driver is budget efficiency and maximizing value.

 

Budget dictates everything.

 

 

[bean5302]

On 11/5/2026 at 10:27 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to the site! Joe Ryan is effectively home-grown. He's a very different pitcher than he was in the Rays system.

Joe Ryan was an MLB caliber pitcher when he arrived. His K rate, BB rate, advanced metrics, etc are all similar today vs his first season. He's changed his repertoire around and experimented a little, but I'm not on board with the assertion the Twins developed him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Joe Ryan was an MLB caliber pitcher when he arrived. His K rate, BB rate, advanced metrics, etc are all similar today vs his first season. He's changed his repertoire around and experimented a little, but I'm not on board with the assertion the Twins developed him.

I mean, he pitched 26 innings as a "weird" pitcher; I don't put a lot of stock in his 2021 surface stats. If you look at his pitch movement and velocity, he's a very different pitcher today than he was then. These movement and pitch profiles show a completely different pitcher:

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Too many TwinsDaily posters analyze players based purely on personal feelings.

 

The truth is... every single player represents a money, budget, and value discussion.

 

It's impossible to have a realistic baseball debate without looking at the financial footprint a guy leaves on the payroll.

 

Even my constant focus on platooning comes back to this: while it helps development, the core driver is budget efficiency and maximizing value.

 

Budget dictates everything.

 

 

 

I think some of this footprint needs to include the rotation impact as a whole.

its not just Joe Ryan (though he’s a huge trade chip and value driver).

there are 4 starters currently on the 40 man roster that will not be on their current contract in 2028.

Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Kremer are in their last years of contract going into 2027.

they shouldn’t plan on backfilling all 4 next offseason, even if the current depth chart is 9 deep, it needs to remain 9-10 deep all the time.

this offseason one to two of the 4 should be turned into prospects for 2028 and forward, and one to two should be extended or external free agents added so the FO only has plan on signing one free agent in the 2027-2028 offseason and have a prospect or two graduate. They can’t plan on 9 guys all taking a step forward at the same time.
 

Right now it does not appear there is a robust succession plan.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

41 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, he pitched 26 innings as a "weird" pitcher; I don't put a lot of stock in his 2021 surface stats. If you look at his pitch movement and velocity, he's a very different pitcher today than he was then. These movement and pitch profiles show a completely different pitcher:

Interesting, you don't take stock into his actual results as a 25 year old rookie, but use movement profile in his first 26 innings as a rookie to compare him to a 30 year old with 5 1/2 years experience to make your  argument he is a homegrown talent. 

Wow, very earth shattering observation, pitchers change, learn and develop as they get more experience, can't believe nobody came up with something like this before. 

There is no doubt the Twins have continued to work with and develop him ever since they acquired him ( I would guess that all teams do this, no?), and besides what he has become at the end of seasons, they should get Kudos for that and for trading for him.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

Interesting, you don't take stock into his actual results as a 25 year old rookie, but use movement profile in his first 26 innings as a rookie to compare him to a 30 year old with 5 1/2 years experience to make your  argument he is a homegrown talent. 

Results fluctuate wildly in 26 innings. The pitches you throw are the pitches you throw, and Joe Ryan now throws four different pitches than he did when he entered the organization.

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I think some of this footprint needs to include the rotation impact as a whole.

its not just Joe Ryan (though he’s a huge trade chip and value driver).

there are 4 starters currently on the 40 man roster that will not be on their current contract in 2028.

Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Kremer are in their last years of contract going into 2027.

they shouldn’t plan on backfilling all 4 next offseason, even if the current depth chart is 9 deep, it needs to remain 9-10 deep all the time.

this offseason one to two of the 4 should be turned into prospects for 2028 and forward, and one to two should be extended or external free agents added so the FO only has plan on signing one free agent in the 2027-2028 offseason and have a prospect or two graduate. They can’t plan on 9 guys all taking a step forward at the same time.
 

Right now it does not appear there is a robust succession plan.

I’ve been calling it the wall. They need to mitigate the upcoming crash into that wall. If the plan is for the expiring contracts to lead the way in 2027. They certainly could do it. However… after the season concludes. It’s a full speed crash into that wall and it won’t be pretty. 

thats why I advocate signing at least one upper level starter this off season to a multi year deal despite the current depth and trading off two (Ober and Kremer) to make sure youth is served in the 5th rotation spot. 
 

I think it’s a critical move. 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Results fluctuate wildly in 26 innings. The pitches you throw are the pitches you throw, and Joe Ryan now throws four different pitches than he did when he entered the organization.

Well there you have it the evidence is irrefutable, I am convinced.

 

[MeleMouth]

5 hours ago, Herbie said:

The article headline and the contents led us to believe it was about HOMEGROWN talent. It was misleading. I could care less how Ryan was brought up or where. Making rediculous comparisons to tomatoes and now saying he even played little league is nothing more than taking shots at me. Do you really think I don't know he likely played little league and high school baseball. What is your point other than to try to insult me? I was not the only one to make the reference to Ryan NOT being homegrown talent. As an author, why point out that Berrios was homegrown talent, even adding it to the headline, when being homegrown had very little to nothing to do with the article in the first place? Constructive criticism is one thing, taking shots at someones intelligence is another. A "Community Moderator" should know the difference.

"Homegrown" is an emotional term that, like Brian said, has nothing to do with value, and with which it appears you agree.

However, it is well proven that people overvalue something they have and undervalue something they don't have, e.g., people won't buy a coffee mug for $2 but won't sell the same mug for $5. "Homegrown" probably functions the same way, especially in this "one of us" market. 

As you both also agree, the discussion regarding Ryan should be about value.

Now, if the topic is the performance of Twins management, an assessment of homegrown could be more valid, because producing value by developing prospects is essentially the coin of the realm for lower-budget teams, although I would also argue that even here creating value is more important than how that value was created. As mentioned by others, the Twins created value by acquiring Ryan in a value for Nelson Cruz. That is good. However, they certainly seem to have missed their window for maximizing his value by trading him to another team. This is common in life. For example, it has been shown that people who trade stocks are better at determining value when buying than when selling. Even though stocks are inanimate objects, people develop some kind of affection for them that clouds their ability to maximize value upon selling. The best traders are aware of this tendency and guard against their own feelings overruling their judgment.

The Twins' behavior with Ryan seems to fit this pattern - good realization of value on buying, bad realization of value on selling. This is decent, but they're in a league of experts, where "decent" often comes in last place to "really smart." To go one step further, this could be one reason why Tampa and Milwaukee, which have been owned by people who got rich by being successful traders, are more successful than a team like the Twins that is owned by people who inherited their wealth and previously said that their priority for a new general manager was someone who was "lovable."

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Results fluctuate wildly in 26 innings. The pitches you throw are the pitches you throw, and Joe Ryan now throws four different pitches than he did when he entered the organization.

I was talking about 2021-2022-2023-2024-2025-2026. ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K rate, BB rate, Line drive rate, hard hit rate, barrel rate, first pitch strike, zone rate, swinging strikes... it's all the same. He added an occasional sinker which traded improved his grounder rate, but it had no real impact on the gopher balls.

Ryan is a 4 seamer/slider(sweeper) pitcher. Just like he always has been. His first couple years that was 80% of his pitches, it's 75% the last couple years. Ryan has experimented with different grips (slider -> "sweeper") and he dropped his arm angle to improve his breaking pitches and that gave him 2mph in velo as well.

The basics of who he is has not changed.