Matt Wallner: A Powerful Assessment

[Riverbrian]

I'm not posting this for a fire bombing of Matt Wallner...  I know he has lost some fans on this site.  

Wallner in this purpose, is an example for a front office assessment discussion. I'm not doing this to blame the front office either. Player assessment has to be difficult. 

Thought #1 - Matt Wallner was CHOSEN as the opening day RF. He wasn't even originally chosen to platoon. The staff went around the room... talked about it and concluded that Wallner was the opening day RF. 

Thought #2 - Matt Wallner remained the designated starter for 43 games. The Twins staff determined that there was something there. 

Thought #3 - Poof... He's gone. Possibly for good if they decide not to retain him. 

Thought #4 - Any statcast metric considerations, any measurements, any projections would have been part of the discussion for the consideration of thought #1 and thought #2. Is he our RF? They said yes... he is our RF. 

Thought #5 - Poof... He's gone. 

How can a front office miss that badly? From the keys to the kingdom to Poof... He's Gone. It wasn't gradual... It was poof... he's gone. 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not posting this for a fire bombing of Matt Wallner...  I know he has lost some fans on this site.  

Wallner in this purpose, is an example for a front office assessment discussion. I'm not doing this to blame the front office either. Player assessment has to be difficult. 

Thought #1 - Matt Wallner was CHOSEN as the opening day RF. He wasn't even originally chosen to platoon. The staff went around the room... talked about it and concluded that Wallner was the opening day RF. 

Thought #2 - Matt Wallner remained the designated starter for 43 games. The Twins staff determined that there was something there. 

Thought #3 - Poof... He's gone. Possibly for good if they decide not to retain him. 

Thought #4 - Any statcast metric considerations, any measurements, any projections would have been part of the discussion for the consideration of thought #1 and thought #2. Is he our RF? They said yes... he is our RF. 

Thought #5 - Poof... He's gone. 

How can a front office miss that badly? From the keys to the kingdom to Poof... He's Gone. It wasn't gradual... It was poof... he's gone. 

 

 

This is a good question. He certainly never had great range, but the arm is very much there. Maybe a different hitting coach could help more. 

The strikeouts were also always part of his game, but he just stopped making any contact. Then Keaschall came up and lit the world on fire AND even though he was bad in the outfield, he certainly had better range than Wallner ever showed. Austin Martin too. And then of course both Jenkins AND Rodriguez clearly have better range.

If Wallner could get with a coach that truly fixes the hole in his swing, then he could be something again. I don't know what is up with him, but you are right, he was the guy until he wasn't.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Thought #2 - Matt Wallner remained the designated starter for 43 games. 

It was a little more gradual than you portray it.  Wallner was the starter in the first 14 games of the season,. He played RF and was there for every inning. That definitely demonstrated conviction on the part of the braintrust.

He sat out game #15, having rewarded the braintrust with a .677 OPS.

After that, Wallner started in 19 of the next 28 games.  The FO and/or manager showed a certain kind of stubbornness by never DHing him even in this period, and when he played it was for the entire game, except one time he didn't start but came in to bat in the 9th inning.  He wasn't an everyday starter anymore but they still invested the month trying any way they could to let him show the value that they obviously thought was there in the first place, not jerking him around when he did play.

The reward for this additional patience was a .441 OPS.  Beyond unplayable.

No longer having a role on the major league roster even as a bench player - you can't bring him in for the bat, you can't bring him in for the glove, you can't bring him in to run the bases - he was indeed gone, and never came back.

But this wasn't a poof!-he-gone situation.  He was phased out until he positively played himself out of a job.

It's fair to ask whether the judgement going into Opening Day was that mistaken, and it's fair to question how long you go until you pull the plug.  But I think they are separate matters.

My own guess is that there was a conviction within the FO that if Wallner went to AAA, he wasn't coming back.  So they wanted to make really, really sure.

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

It was a little more gradual than you portray it.  Wallner was the starter in the first 14 games of the season,. He played RF and was there for every inning. That definitely demonstrated conviction on the part of the braintrust.

He sat out game #15, having rewarded the braintrust with a .677 OPS.

After that, Wallner started in 19 of the next 28 games.  The FO and/or manager showed a certain kind of stubbornness by never DHing him even in this period, and when he played it was for the entire game, except one time he didn't start but came in to bat in the 9th inning.  He wasn't an everyday starter anymore but they still invested the month trying any way they could to let him show the value that they obviously thought was there in the first place, not jerking him around when he did play.

The reward for this additional patience was a .441 OPS.  Beyond unplayable.

No longer having a role on the major league roster even as a bench player - you can't bring him in for the bat, you can't bring him in for the glove, you can't bring him in to run the bases - he was indeed gone, and never came back.

But this wasn't a poof!-he-gone situation.  He was phased out until he positively played himself out of a job.

It's fair to ask whether the judgement going into Opening Day was that mistaken, and it's fair to question how long you go until you pull the plug.  But I think they are separate matters.

My own guess is that there was a conviction within the FO that if Wallner went to AAA, he wasn't coming back.  So they wanted to make really, really sure.

I was trying brevity. Last time I wasn't brief... you ran me through AI to shorten it. 

I was aware of his timeline. For the discussion I'm raising. I'll stand by Poof... He was gone. Since he went from full confidence to... never to return? Seemingly 135 PA's erased the 1,000 PA's of rather high OPS prior. They didn't just lose confidence... they reversed an organizational commitment in 135 PA's. 

If you'd like... I'll go with...  he got drunk... stumbled around... threw up on his mother in law and his wife divorced him, 1 month after they renewed their vows in front of friends and family.  

If I were to lengthen it to add context... I would have mentioned the presence of role players Outman and Martin as his potential replacement while he was walking around the room with a lamp shade on his head. 

I could have gotten pretty detailed on his utilization. I've been watching utilization and posting on it. I could have mentioned that we faced 17 left handed pitchers in those fateful 43 games. He started 33 out of the 43 games. There were 11 games in May... He started 7 of those 11 games. Even hit as high as 5th in the order on May 7. That was 5 games before Poof... he was gone. It was still Wallner over Outman according to club assessment or according to Shelton's utilization. 

In those final 5 games in Twins uniform. . He started 3 of them. 

In those final 3 starts he went: K, FC, K, F8 - K, K, K, K - K, K, K, K. Poof. 

That's 10 K's in his last 12 PA's. Including 8 K's in his last 8. I was in complete agreement that he needed to be sent down. His timing was completely gone. In 3 games his OPS fell from a terrible .609 to a terrible .551.  

The Twins chose him... they backed him up with Outman. They tried hard to prove the concept. And now nobody believes he will be back. That is a stunning fall from grace. That was a stunning front office missed assessment. It is a possible overcorrection. 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

The Twins may have been absolutely right to send Wallner down. But that doesn't absolve them of the much bigger question: How did a player they had so recently committed to as an important part of their plans go from indispensable to apparently expendable in 135 plate appearances? And why was there no better contingency plan?

[HarmonK03]

I don't think this front office has ever fully committed to Wallner. Remember in 24 they sent him down after 25 ab's.  Regardless of the results, you don't send someone down after that few plate appearances that you are counting on to be a regular.

At this point they need to let him leave and see if he can figure it out with another organization.

[Linus]

This will be an unpopular opinion but I would bring Wallner back in a very specific way. He will not play the field and he will have to earn DH appearances next year (I believe he has one option left). Here’s why: you are not going to get anything in trade. The chance that he figures it out, however small, is much more valuable than an A ball lottery ticket as his ceiling is high. The 40 man isn’t an issue as they have guys all over the place that can be removed. The odds of Wallner figuring it out are not good. If he does, the reward is substantial. 

[tony&rodney]

After being sent to St. Paul, Matt Wallner made zero adjustments that would make him a better baseball player. He was difficult to watch when he played for the Saints. 

The only chance Wallner receives another MLB look is if he embarks on a full scale rebuild of his approach to baseball this winter and is miraculously changed come Spring Training. 

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I don't think this front office has ever fully committed to Wallner. Remember in 24 they sent him down after 25 ab's.  Regardless of the results, you don't send someone down after that few plate appearances that you are counting on to be a regular.

At this point they need to let him leave and see if he can figure it out with another organization.

Options are a very powerful thing.

Having options available for minor league assignment is a powerful thing.

Having options to replace him at the major league level is also a powerful thing.

He was sent down when Trevor Larnach came of the IL with a toe injury to start the season. It was a pretty complicated stretch to start 2024.

Lewis was hurt and that put Martin on the roster. Margot was also on the roster as a short side specialist. Kepler got hurt.

So... I agree. The Commitment wasn't very strong in 2024. But... the commitment was pretty clear in 2026.   

[Riverbrian]

36 minutes ago, Linus said:

This will be an unpopular opinion but I would bring Wallner back in a very specific way. He will not play the field and he will have to earn DH appearances next year (I believe he has one option left). Here’s why: you are not going to get anything in trade. The chance that he figures it out, however small, is much more valuable than an A ball lottery ticket as his ceiling is high. The 40 man isn’t an issue as they have guys all over the place that can be removed. The odds of Wallner figuring it out are not good. If he does, the reward is substantial. 

I believe that Wallner is out of options. It's sink or swim time for him. 

Another complication. It can't be ruled out that Larnach is back next year. This team is going for it according to Tom Pohlad. Larnach was one of our better hitters against one hand of the sub species and he can DH next year with the addition of Emma and Emma is a required 26 man roster placement now. 

If Larnach is back. We all know that Martin has to be back because the Twins have methodically built Larnach over the years to require a Martin to handle the other smaller sub species of pitchers.  

Buxton, Keaschall, Emma, Larnach and Martin is your OF. No Wallner... No Jenkins.   

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

After being sent to St. Paul, Matt Wallner made zero adjustments that would make him a better baseball player. He was difficult to watch when he played for the Saints. 

The only chance Wallner receives another MLB look is if he embarks on a full scale rebuild of his approach to baseball this winter and is miraculously changed come Spring Training. 

This touches on a possible explanation. Maybe Wallner wasn't listening? If an employee isn't listening it can lead to eventual abandonment and a therefore pretty stunning fall from grace.  

[bean5302]

I think the Twins made it clear this year that Wallner is not part of the clubs plans. Similarly, the team seems unwilling to part ways with him. He's out of options so he'll either be on the team all year or he'll be on somebody else's team.

With 972 PA of wRC+ 131 production, the Twins bailed on him after 135 PA of wRC+ 57. Wallner raked in AAA, but clearly slumped hard to end the season. Not sure what to make of things other than Wallner is not in the plans.

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think the Twins made it clear this year that Wallner is not part of the clubs plans. Similarly, the team seems unwilling to part ways with him. He's out of options so he'll either be on the team all year or he'll be on somebody else's team.

With 972 PA of wRC+ 131 production, the Twins bailed on him after 135 PA of wRC+ 57. Wallner raked in AAA, but clearly slumped hard to end the season. Not sure what to make of things other than Wallner is not in the plans.

I assume the same. 

Weather he can be traded or if he signs a minor league contract with the Rockies or Padres. I don't know the answer to that. 

My other assumption is this: 

If he returns to 155 wRC+ with the Rockies. He becomes the next Rooker and the front office will have to answer for that when they are trying to figure out how to get some offense in 2027 and 2028. 

All I can do is simply wonder how he went from up here to down here in the span of a month.   

[bean5302]

Front office and ownership accountability is virtually non-existent with this franchise. It'll be hard for Wallner to 

A) Find a team willing to give him an extended opportunity like Rooker got with the Athletics

B) Get past any mental issues he might have which kept him from performing at the MLB level.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Front office and ownership accountability is virtually non-existent with this franchise. It'll be hard for Wallner to 

A) Find a team willing to give him an extended opportunity like Rooker got with the Athletics

 

You would also have to account for the fact that the Twins behavior toward him in 2026 and his availability is a value signal for any team thinking about acquiring him. 

It reminds me of a joke. 

Two hunters are out in the woods when one of them suddenly collapses. He doesn't seem to be breathing and his eyes are glazed over.

The other guy whips out his phone and calls emergency services. He gasps, "My friend is dead! What can I do?"

The operator says, "Calm down, I can help. First, let's make sure he's dead."

There is a silence, then a gunshot is heard.

The guy gets back on the phone and says, "Okay, now what?"

The Twins may have just made sure he's dead. 

 

[MackMan]

I think he'll be non-tendered and potentially brought back on a Minor league contract w/ a ST invite. To go with that I'm sure they're be some opt-outs to go with that contract that way he feels as if he's getting a fair shot at playing. 

[Vanimal46]

Now batting, for your Saitama Seibu Lions, DH Matt Wallner! 

[MeleMouth]

A little context: the team changed what it valued after about a month or two. They started the season with their traditional priority of power with little care about defense or contact, and that switched around mid-May. Most defensively poor players saw changes around then. Wallner then went to St. Paul and remained a power-only guy, but his contact and defense remained poor and his power wasn't anything special. His xWOBA in St. Paul was .309, which is very similar to Ben Ross.

Wallner should move to the bullpen.

[tony&rodney]

45 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

A little context: the team changed what it valued after about a month or two. They started the season with their traditional priority of power with little care about defense or contact, and that switched around mid-May. Most defensively poor players saw changes around then. Wallner then went to St. Paul and remained a power-only guy, but his contact and defense remained poor and his power wasn't anything special. His xWOBA in St. Paul was .309, which is very similar to Ben Ross.

Wallner should move to the bullpen.

This is probably the most accurate hope for Wallner if he hopes to play MLB ball again. The comparison to Ben Ross as a bat is interesting, but Ross does a pile of things Wallner cannot comprehend much less accomplish (run, field). Baseball is tough.

A previous astute comment that reviewed how the Twins dugout staff took the roster, played it, and then made adjustments are a major reason Wallner is no longer an option as a Twin. He can hit an occasional home run off of the most mediocre of pitchers or horrible mistake pitches but otherwise is a total negative. Playing baseball at the highest level is incredibly hard and the best athletes struggle to make it. The rate of failure must be crushing to deal with on a daily basis. I feel for Wallner but he is done.

As someone else suggested, there may be a place for him in Asia. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China are all amazing places if one is willing to roll into the culture. The baseball is really pretty good as well. A number of players have found their groove as baseball players and happiness playing in Asia.

[Riverbrian]

If the Twins are serious about contending, they need to trade for a King Kong bat at first base.

Pair that new addition with a resurrected 2024 Matt Wallner and a healthy 2023 Royce Lewis, and you instantly have three King Kong bats in the lineup.

I'd rather bet on that kind of explosive talent than waste roster spots on low-impact role players.

Wallner’s sudden drop from everyday starter to completely forgotten is still mind-boggling, but you don't swap that kind of potential for a safe bench piece. 

If Wallner is done. They better be right. Because... If he becomes king kong elsewhere while we Josh Bell this thing for another year. Another year goes by and our goals are further away.   

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Pair that new addition with a resurrected 2024 Matt Wallner and a healthy 2023 Royce Lewis,

One could also just advocate for the return of Jose Miranda and Eddie Julien and hope they return to their best selves. Zoll and those who gather to make roster decisions must make their calls looking to 2027. The past is a memory. 

The best bat available for first base isn't a very good first baseman but he sure can still carry a team, Raffy Devers. If you insist on acquiring a big bat for first base, which is a worthy goal (not sure one that can be accomplished), Devers is your guy. What is your trade proposal?

[Riverbrian]

Jose Miranda and Eddie Julien could be acquired for minor league contracts. 

Perhaps that is the fate of Matt Wallner.

 

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Jose Miranda and Eddie Julien could be acquired for minor league contracts. 

Perhaps that is the fate of Matt Wallner.

 

That is almost certainly Wallner's fate. He should go overseas to rebuild his value then perhaps make a return back to MLB. He's got a giant hole in his swing (high velocity in the upper strike zone) that's going to be tough to fix at the MLB level. 

[Riverbrian]

29 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

That is almost certainly Wallner's fate. He should go overseas to rebuild his value then perhaps make a return back to MLB. He's got a giant hole in his swing (high velocity in the upper strike zone) that's going to be tough to fix at the MLB level. 

Could very well be. 

So... if that is the consensus on this board and the front office... it is what it is. 

It still leaves the original question: How does this giant hole in his swing develop so quickly?

If the giant hole was apparent in March... How can a front office place him in such a prominent role to start the season. Keep him in the prominent role. And then... pull the plug... not to be plugged in again. 

This has become a Wallner discussion and I understand that was the natural path it would take. The true question is... Assessment in March and Assessment in May. It happened fast.

Doesn't that make anyone question the accuracy of assessments... Positive or negative assessments. If they were wrong in March... Couldn't they be wrong in May.  

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Could very well be. 

So... if that is the consensus on this board and the front office... it is what it is. 

It still leaves the original question: How does this giant hole in his swing develop so quickly?

If the giant hole was apparent in March... How can a front office place him in such a prominent role to start the season. Keep him in the prominent role. And then... pull the plug... not to be plugged in again. 

This has become a Wallner discussion and I understand that was the natural path it would take. The true question is... Assessment in March and Assessment in May. It happened fast. 

The giant hole in the swing was always there... In his 2024 break out he struck out 36% of the time. When he could make contact, he hit the ball very hard. 

But these sorts of assessments shows how often the Twins FO have been off on their internal calculations. That list continues to grow and I'm afraid we're going to waste yet another year because Zoll isn't a qualified GM. 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The giant hole in the swing was always there... In his 2024 break out he struck out 36% of the time. When he could make contact, he hit the ball very hard. 

But these sorts of assessments shows how often the Twins FO have been off on their internal calculations. That list continues to grow and I'm afraid we're going to waste yet another year because Zoll isn't a qualified GM. 

I believe all front offices are capable of these type of mistakes. Not only capable but they all make them routinely. 

I'm just trying real hard to point it out so others see it and start questioning it. His fall from everyday RF to get the hell out of here was about as North South Pole as it can get.

I want everyone to think about that. 

From there... I can tie it to the role player replacement we subsist on every year and not having safety nets for this as it's happening in the face of front office mistakes. As well as  the unforeseen injuries.

It stands to reason that If they can miss on the upside... they can miss on the downside. 

In this particular case... It's not ramming Royce Lewis over and over again until he gets it right. This was a 1 month complete assessment reverse. Same with SWR.

It should send chills down everyone's spine in the face of 26 and 40 man limitations.

Especially on a team that can't pave over the mistakes with Cash.