Something that led to our demise

[Riverbrian]

After beating Seth Lugo on July 28. The Twins were 41-34 in games started by Right Handed Pitchers. We averaged 4.93 runs per game. Then Randy Dobnak shut us out on July 29th. This began a stretch of 13 games of a 3.69 runs per game. We dropped a run per game but we did manage to go 6-7 in that stretch. 

On August 21 in beautiful San Diego. We shifted downward even further.  We are currently in a 14 game streak of averaging 2.78 runs per game vs RH starters and we have gone 1-13 in that stretch.

Disclaimer: I have taken out the Tigers series that we scored 37 runs in 3 games. Yeah... that will influence that 2.78 number.

We used to have a winning record against Right Handed Starters. We no longer do. This is where we collapsed. 

On another thread I have been tracking results vs RH Starters and LH Starters. I am not tracking performance against RH pitchers or LH Pitchers that data is easily found.

I'm tracking team performance vs RH Staters and LH Starters. I am tracking final results for the entire game regardless if the starter was removed in the 3rd or 8th inning and this is because the lineup is chosen primarily based on the hand of the starter and the chosen lineup does the majority of the work.

The reason I'm tracking results and categorizing RH Starters and LH Starters is because Derek Shelton sets his daily lineup (just like Rocco before him) by what hand the starter throws with. It is undeniable that Right Handed Starter or Left Handed Starter is the primary information that determines the starting lineup. I'm tracking composition so I can confidently say that it is the primary factor in the lineup. I can confidently say that it is without a doubt the primary factor in lineup selection. 

The 9 players on the lineup card do the majority of the work. They not only hit... they run the bases... they make the defensive plays. The starting lineup also determines what pinch hitters and pinch runners are available in late game situations... so I have been tracking the results

Yes... There are big huge things that play major factors in wins and losses that the research ignores... big huge things like your own pitching performance. However... the reason we platoon is to increase our chances of winning and I wanted to find out if it did that. 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

On 9/16/2026 at 5:25 AM, Riverbrian said:

the reason we platoon is to increase our chances of winning and I wanted to find out if it did that. 

Did you really find out?  If Shelton never constructs a lineup significantly contrary to platooning, how do you know whether it "increase[s] our chances of winning?"  All you are really measuring is whether an ever-varying roster did better against R or L starters.

And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash.  Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

Did you really find out?  If Shelton never constructs a lineup significantly contrary to platooning, how do you know whether it "increase[s] our chances of winning?"  All you are really measuring is whether an ever-varying roster did better against R or L starters.

And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash.  Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

You need a control sample to test the hypothesis. RB just has a real big control sample

[Riverbrian]

On 9/19/2026 at 6:58 PM, ashbury said:

Did you really find out?  If Shelton never constructs a lineup significantly contrary to platooning, how do you know whether it "increase[s] our chances of winning?"  All you are really measuring is whether an ever-varying roster did better against R or L starters.

And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash.  Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

Of course I didn't. I'm tracking Wins and Losses and my research doesn't include PITCHING. Perhaps the biggest factor in Win and Losses is PITCHING and it doesn't include pitching... so of course I didn't. 

I have acknowledged the limitations in what I'm doing in the thread. These limitations that should be obvious to all... so I didn't attach a disclaimer to every post. Apparently I should have. 

I'm tracking what I'm tracking because I can't find the information. Nobody is tracking it and sharing it as far as I can tell. So I'm doing it for one team when I need all 30 to compare and contrast but I don't have the time to do it. Since I'm doing it for the Twins... I'm sharing it. 

The information doesn't exist and it NEEDS to EXIST because ENTIRE ****ING LINEUPS ARE SET PRIMARILY BY the Handedness of the starting pitcher. That makes it about as big of an influencer as it can get.   

You say "ever-varying". I'm saying it's not "ever-varying". I'm using the word "Primarily" because I've been tracking to pretty much prove that at least in the case of the 2026 Twins... "Primarily" is correct. It is without question the primary decision maker on the daily lineups. 

Nobody is tracking it. The 9 players who are doing the majority of the hitting, the majority of the defense, the majority of the baserunning is being set due to it. Along with Batting order, who is available to pinch hit, pinch run when needed is being determined by it. Everything that isn't pitching is determined by the handedness of the pitcher. That's a huge influencer being ignored by world wide contingent of stat compilers. But it doesn't include pitching so... Of course I didn't find out.  

If entire starting lineups are set due to the hand of the starting pitcher. That is huge. HUGE!!! It needs to exist just like any stat that is being generated. I'd say it's more important than how a batter does in night games and I can find that stat.  

It is also determining who gets called up and who they roster.  This makes it a TALENT thing. Not just a platoon thing and I'm saying it's possible that the platoon thing is having a ripple effect (or affect) on the Talent thing. 

They just called up Ggon instead of Erod due to handedness not TALENT. And... And... We needed to call up Ggon due to actions that were set in motion 4 YEARS ago when they decided to declare that Larnach can't hit left handed pitching and will never be allowed to and we will make a similar roster decision 4 years from now when we have decided that Walker Jenkins can't hit left handed pitching and won't be allowed to. 

It is limiting trade value when it is time to trade Larnach and it will continue to limit trade value forever more if they continue and they seem to be continuing.  If they are purposely rostering lesser players. This is a major influencer and perhaps part of an overall larger development problem. 

And Ash... Please consider that when you state:

"And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash".  

You are kinda making my point. Not entirely but you have taken a step closer to where I am. Buxton has reverse splits this year. Last year he didn't. Ryan Jeffers has reverse splits... Last year he didn't.

Brooks Lee is 2nd in AB's against left handers this year and he is carrying a .593 OPS.

Trevor Larnach had a .608 OPS against left handers last year and he is toxic. Brooks Lee is not apparently? 

They are making decisions based on the batters box they stand in. 

I want to find out if it's helping. I haven't found out... but yeah... I also haven't found out that it has been helping.  

 

 

. 

[Riverbrian]

On 9/19/2026 at 6:58 PM, ashbury said:

Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

I'm trying to find out. I obviously have a bias against platooning but I'm trying to find out because if I'm going to remain strong on my opinions against the grain of popular opinion... I'd like more confidence in what I'm being strong about.  

Are they indictment against the lefties themselves? I suppose it is... not in the case of Roden and his limited sample but yeah... It would be an indictment against the lefties to a degree. Making this a talent discussion. It may be an indictment against how many left handed hitters you roster. Making this a platoon percentage discussion. It's actually an indictment against everyone making it a talent discussion. Probably it's more of an indictment against all of the right handed hitters against left handed pitching. 7 of them plus 3 switch gives us 10 players who will stand in the opposite batters box. Making us on paper... according to platoon advantage better equipped to face left handed pitching. 

Making this a talent discussion with the potential role platooning is playing in the selection of that talent or more importantly in my eyes... the development of that talent.  

If it's an indictment against our left handed hitters. It is also an indictment of how many left handers we allow on the roster. We only have 4 of them on the roster at the moment. We've been rolling with 3 since Gray went away. Yet... we are calling up right handers instead of more talented left handers. 

 

 

[Jim H]

I don't think this exercise of Brian's actually proves anything. But,  i agree with him.. This manic obsession with always trying to get the opposite handed hitter into the batter's box as often as possible, certainly has a huge effect on games. 

Consider that the Twins STARTED 9 different center fielders this season. Buxton started about one half the games this year. The other 8 starters seemed to be chosen primarily because of which side of the plate they stood on. Two players who had never played centerfield in pro ball before, started in centerfield. So the Twins determined who played one of the most important defensive positions on the field, basically by how they could get the most players on the correct side of the batter's box.

Other teams do similar things, there are huge numbers of manuevers teams do to get the correct batter into the batter's box during the game. Brian is right to question how much all this contributes to winning. Less optimal defensive alignments is just one of the side effects of all the movements. 

I am going to stop here. This is a topic I think should be explored more. I would also be interested in how the this is justified by the Twins management. Turning so many players into platoon pieces, changing lineups nearly every game, moving players up and down the lineup card on a daily basis, pinch hitting in the 4th or 5th inning, are all things that happen under this philosophy. It is fair to wonder how much this helps winning.

[Linus]

I’ve noticed they are letting Jenkins and Em Rod stay in there against lefties. I think this whole issue is driven by the organization’s belief they can make incremental gains by raising the floor with clever little tactics like this. I just want real hitters - the kind that raise the ceiling and don’t care which batters box they stand in. 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’ve noticed they are letting Jenkins and Em Rod stay in there against lefties. I think this whole issue is driven by the organization’s belief they can make incremental gains by raising the floor with clever little tactics like this. I just want real hitters - the kind that raise the ceiling and don’t care which batters box they stand in. 

Probably an exercise in Look and See.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I’ve noticed they are letting Jenkins and Em Rod stay in there against lefties. I think this whole issue is driven by the organization’s belief they can make incremental gains by raising the floor with clever little tactics like this. I just want real hitters - the kind that raise the ceiling and don’t care which batters box they stand in. 

With Buxton out. They need CF. And with the team basically out of contention. They are letting them hang in there. 

I'll be surprised if they allow it opening day 2027. 

But... Man... I agree with your post. Enough of this developing half ball players. 

[ashbury]

Reverse splits are rare, almost to the point of nonexistence.  Which is why I said the results this season were weird.  You aren't taking into account that the manager can push the right buttons and the machine puts out unexpected results.

Platooning isn't some weird new analytic thingamabob.  Casey Stengel did it.  Earl Weaver did it.  They weren't purposely trying to develop half ball players; they were playing the cards they were dealt.

If development is your real issue, major league usage of the finished product might be the wrong place to be looking.

I agree we want complete ballplayers - a guy who can OPS .800 against lefties and righties alike is super valuable.  Why do you think the Twins aren't trying to develop those?

 

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

Reverse splits are rare, almost to the point of nonexistence.  Which is why I said the results this season were weird. 

Sustained reverse splits... Yeah Exceedingly rare.

Individual seasons... I'd say it's more medium rare but parameters are not defined in this discussion.

Fun Fact. Alan Roden has the highest OPS against Left Handed Pitching. He's 7 for 15 at the plate against lefties. 1,167 OPS and they are hoping to turn him into the next Larnach. 

But. let me ask one question.

If reverse splits are rare, almost to the point of nonexistence. Why are the Twins limiting the number of left handed hitters? If reverse splits are rare. Why are the Twins almost demanding right handed hitter success against right handed pitching for team success? 

 

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

You aren't taking into account that the manager can push the right buttons and the machine puts out unexpected results.

Unexpected results is a big part of my point.

If results can be unexpected.

How do you lock in like they won't be. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Platooning isn't some weird new analytic thingamabob.  Casey Stengel did it.  Earl Weaver did it.  They weren't purposely trying to develop half ball players; they were playing the cards they were dealt.

I understand the size of the grain I'm going against. Yes... Casey Stengel did it... Earl Weaver did it. I can quote the historical split advantage without looking them up. I'm aware of this year and last year and the year before that. It's repeatable... it can't be denied.

I used to say that I wasn't anti-platoon. The Twins have changed my mind. 

All 30 teams are doing it today. It is an analytic thingamabob as common as a fork to eat your dinner. 

However... We are at a whole new level from Casey, Earl or even Tom Kelly.  Randy Bush saw 2 AB's against left handed hitters in 1991 but the use of the platoon back then is nowhere near it's utilization today. 

The modern day Twins have taken it beyond the whole new level. To almost complete devotion to it. To the point of weighting the left on left more so than other teams seem to. 

Now they may not care about 2029 when they are trying to survive 2026 but they are purposely developing half ball players tomorrow for today's result and I guess if you are a GM or manager trying to survive. I can understand the temptation to stay alive to try and actually be employed in 2029. After all... If there is a loss in cabin pressure... they are supposed to put the mask on their face first before assisting others. 

Yes... they may not see the end result but they are purposely making half ball players development decisions.

Or... more accurately... they are purposely developing... 72% ball players or worse yet 28% ball players. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

If development is your real issue, major league usage of the finished product might be the wrong place to be looking.

Development is a major part of the issue. It isn't the only issue. Not by a mile. But... in the end development is going to need to be addressed because we ain't got the money to sign the players developed by other teams. Even if we increase pay roll to 180... we won't be able to dismiss the development necessity. 

The need to sign or call up lesser talent to feed the machine is a major issue. If people can't see the inherent problem with any philosophy that justifies calling up or signing lesser players. It gets really hard to bore through that wood. 

If you want to platoon Jenkins he will need a dance partner. That dance partner is either going to cost 4 to 5 million dollars for a Margot or worse yet... he is going to sacrifice the career of a prospect like Austin Martin. Or he is going to cause Gabriel Gonzalez to be called up instead of Emmanuel Rodriguez so we can sacrifice the career of Gabriel.

4 Years from now Walker Jenkins trade value will be capped and it will because of decisions being made today.

Every left handed hitter that has come through our system has been hidden from left handed pitchers. Every single one. Not a PCA or Corbin Carroll or Ben Rice in the bunch. Not a Daylen Lile in the bunch, a Delauter or Aranda in the bunch. We do have Kody Clemens. He ranks 44th in left handed hitters AB's against left handed pitchers. 

The Twins have allowed 308 left handed plate appearances against left handed pitchers to occur in 2026. That ranks 26th. with a .624 OPS and that ranks 24th. The Yankees have 968 PA's of left against left. They Rank #1. They have a .716 team OPS and that ranks 8th. The OPS belongs to the Cubs with a .838 team OPS left on left. There are 10 teams in MLB with a team OPS over .700 left against left. Including the extremely young Nationals. What are doing wrong? 

Injuries ever changing the context is a major issue when you have purposely signed lesser players. 

You have 13 roster spots. Limiting your roster to 4 left handers is an issue. 4 28% right handed hitters that are required to gaurd the 4 left handers is an issue.

Man... you better be right about the 5 (Right Handed) players that require no such shenanigans. Because if they perform like Royce Lewis... the mathed together ball players we are developing will be called on to replace him. 

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

I agree we want complete ballplayers - a guy who can OPS .800 against lefties and righties alike is super valuable.  Why do you think the Twins aren't trying to develop those?

We don't even need equal or even reverse splits. A left handed hitter with an OPS of .700 against lefties and a .800 against righties is perfectly fine. .650 and .850 is also fine. The platoon split is real and if an organization is just closing the door right out of the gate it will never produce a Kyle Schwarber or Freddie Freeman and an organization like the Twins will need to produce their own Kyle Schwarber because we can't sign him. 

You also have to factor how this complete nearly 100% sheltering of prospects is to actually producing eventual expectable numbers. The small sample numbers that we look at are fluid with additional opportunity. As a matter of fact... All numbers, combinations of whatever are fluid and they accumulate over time.

Those numbers that we look at are subject to hot and cold streaks. If a left handed batter with a career .600 OPS against left handed pitching is in a hot streak against a right handed hitters because he is seeing the ball good. Wouldn't stand to reason that he could also be in a hot streak against left handed hitting because his swing is feeling good and he is seeing the ball good. With 100% denial of the opportunity of left vs. left. He will never get the benefit of that hot streak to raise his small sample number. 

In other words... a .600 OPS is not static. It is not what the hitter is every day of his life. There will be times when a .600 OPS is a .700 OPS due to a hot streak and there are times when a .600 OPS is .500 OPS due to a cold streak. If you deny the opportunity to participate out of hand. You are denying him the opportunity to cash in on hot streaks. This will make decent metric measurables harder. The best way to cool down a hot streak is to bench it.    

Why do I think the Twins are not trying?

I answered this in the last post. We haven't let a single developing left handed hitter face left handed pitching on a regular basis. Not one. Our philosophy exceeds all others in this regard. We've closed the door on everyone. 

 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Reverse splits are rare, almost to the point of nonexistence.  Which is why I said the results this season were weird.  You aren't taking into account that the manager can push the right buttons and the machine puts out unexpected results.

Platooning isn't some weird new analytic thingamabob.  Casey Stengel did it.  Earl Weaver did it.  They weren't purposely trying to develop half ball players; they were playing the cards they were dealt.

If development is your real issue, major league usage of the finished product might be the wrong place to be looking.

I agree we want complete ballplayers - a guy who can OPS .800 against lefties and righties alike is super valuable.  Why do you think the Twins aren't trying to develop those?

 

One more thing. 

Please don't get frustrated with me. I'm dying for this conversation. I'm ready for this conversation and you are one of the few people on this website capable of fairly having the conversation.  

And please keep in mind. I am acknowledging that the platoon split advantage is real. It is without question harder for left handed hitters to face left handed pitchers and this is mathematically proven historically and also proven every single season inside the larger historical numbers.  

I am also acknowledging that if every team adopted what I am suggesting that the platoon split advantage that is already proven could deepen or widen as a result. 

[TheLeviathan]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

One more thing. 

Please don't get frustrated with me. I'm dying for this conversation. I'm ready for this conversation and you are one of the few people on this website capable of fairly having the conversation.  

I'm not even sure what your thesis is.  Never platoon?  Platoon less?  Don't pinch-hit mid-game? Platoon, but not when guys are on a hot streak?  

I think your data is interesting but it seems like it can mostly be explained by the fact that a bad offense regressed back to being bad after having an unholy degree of luck for about a month.

[Riverbrian]

41 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm not even sure what your thesis is.  Never platoon?  Platoon less?  Don't pinch-hit mid-game? Platoon, but not when guys are on a hot streak?  

I think your data is interesting but it seems like it can mostly be explained by the fact that a bad offense regressed back to being bad after having an unholy degree of luck for about a month.

It's more of a hypothesis. 

I'm saying it's quite possible that platooning hurts more than it helps. 

Never platoon? Nope... never is too strong a word in consideration of the multiple contexts that occur during a given season but I am pretty sure that we shouldn't just take developing players and stuff them into a platoon automatically and we have been stuffing all of our left handed prospects into it automatically.   

Platoon Less? Yep... I'll take that. There is no team in MLB as locked into the practice as we are. At the very least we can give some ground here.  

Don't pinch it mid-game? Well... I'm not a fan of the practice especially with one out and nobody on base because you don't have the bench size to readjust to the adjustment. However... Never is too strong of a word. Key moments may arise in the 5th inning where it makes sense.  

Platoon but not when guys are on a hot streak? I'm suggesting that it's possible that you are robbing them of the opportunity to use the good times to improve the numbers therefore cementing the smaller sample. 

The data is just data at this point. I've made note of some trends like the start of this thread but I draw no conclusions from it yet. I'm just compiling it and sharing it for those who'd like to take a look.

The stat doesn't exist so I'm creating it for the Twins. The data set needs to exist because perhaps all 30 teams... not just the Twins are making ENTIRE starting lineup decisions primarily based on the hand the pitcher throws with. If starting lineups are being set by this single factor... this makes this single factor a huge factor in the results and it needs to be separated from the normal left vs left or left vs right stats that we have access to. 

These stats not compiled by professionals and not being readily available for the public is an oversight that should be corrected especially in consideration of the billions of data sets already in use. 

The hand of the pitcher is determining which players are selected to do the BULK of all the offensive, defensive, baserunning and who is available to pinch hit and pinch run. That fact alone should carry much much much more weight than 90% of the available stats. 

[MN Brian]

@Riverbrian - I'm a newbie when it comes to sourcing baseball stats, so fully possible that I have made a newbie mistake here =) 

I asked Claude to write a python script to scrape the baseball stats to determine the data that you are looking at: the Twins (or another club's) game record and runs scored against the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher.  The data seems good - I cross checked a half dozen data points from the spreadsheet against Baseball Reference game box scores and the pitcher, handedness, win/loss, & run scored were all accurate.  Unfortunately it won't include this years results until the year has ended.  The game by game log is in the CSV file.  Does this help? 

Personally I understand the hypothesis but am unsure of how you see this data supporting it.  Would it be by comparing 2 different teams on opposite sides of the spectrum?

twins_vs_pitcher_hand_games.csv

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, MN Brian said:

@Riverbrian - I'm a newbie when it comes to sourcing baseball stats, so fully possible that I have made a newbie mistake here =) 

I asked Claude to write a python script to scrape the baseball stats to determine the data that you are looking at: the Twins (or another club's) game record and runs scored against the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher.  The data seems good - I cross checked a half dozen data points from the spreadsheet against Baseball Reference game box scores and the pitcher, handedness, win/loss, & run scored were all accurate.  Unfortunately it won't include this years results until the year has ended.  The game by game log is in the CSV file.  Does this help? 

Personally I understand the hypothesis but am unsure of how you see this data supporting it.  Would it be by comparing 2 different teams on opposite sides of the spectrum?

twins_vs_pitcher_hand_games.csv 49.85 kB · 0 downloads

Thank You... This is wonderful. I really really appreciate it. 

Ultimately we would need to compare and contrast with the other 29 teams to see how we compare so we can start searching for pluses or minuses. 

Another thing... and this is my thing and the reason I started the tracking I'm doing... lineup composition is a key component to what I'm trying to determine with the data.

For example... We won 50 percent of our games against RH Starters over a 9 year stretch and we averaged 4.80 Runs per game. How many left handed and right handed hitters did we have in the lineup against them. How many left handed and right handed hitters did we have in the lineup against the LH Starters that produced a .477 Winning Percentage and 4.37 Runs per game. 

I will go back and check roster composition for the corresponding years. Without checking... I can tell you that the Twins have been light on left handed hitters for the past 5 years at least. This could indicate that the .500 winning percentage and the 4.8 Runs Per Game just might support my hypothesis and run directly counter to what the platooning is supposed to accomplish. I'm going to conduct as much research as I can on this when time allows. It will take some time using my slow data entry by hand. If you can get Claude to produce that... I may ask for your hand in marriage.  

I really really really appreciate what you've done here

High Five Fist Bump Thank you to both you and Claude.com

You might be my new favorite poster! 

 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It hand of the pitcher is determining which players are selected to do the BULK of all the offensive, defensive, baserunning and who is available to pinch hit and pinch run. That fact alone should carry much much much more weight than 90% of the available stats. 

I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence, but I think @MN Briangave you a helpful start in the right direction.  With the platoon advantages having a well-established data set to verify them, you're swimming upstream before you start.  Couple that with the impossibility of knowing a (results with platoons) to not-a (results with no platoons) and you're going to have to have a robust dataset that includes not just the outcome of success vs. rhp/lhp, but percentages of plate appearances all teams have in which a platoon advantage exists, the success rates of those at-bats, the success rate of those teams, a broader context of the players themselves and their platoon splits, and a variety of other data points synthesized in one place to be able to draw any conclusions that run counter to that beefy data set we already know is true.

I tend to think we over do it, but my qualms are mostly with our developmental process.  (In more ways than one) Once they get to the big leagues I trust our internal scouting to make the best decisions possible rather than force feeding lefty on lefty matchups.

[MN Brian]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Ultimately we would need to compare and contrast with the other 29 teams to see how we compare so we can start searching for pluses or minuses. 

Another thing... and this is my thing and the reason I started the tracking I'm doing... lineup composition is a key component to what I'm trying to determine with the data.

The python script can be run against any team, one at a time.  I had Claude add in the L/R/S count for the batters in the starting line-up -- I haven't done a sanity check on that data but it seems reasonable.

The data can be run for any time period other than this year, this example data set is 2016-2025 inclusive, so 10 years total.

twins_vs_pitcher_hand_games (version 2).csv

[ashbury]

11 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

One more thing. 

Please don't get frustrated with me. 

I've been trying to be brief (for me) because I'm on the road, taking part in a hiking club this week for some short hikes near Yosemite.  Meanwhile you broke up your reply into shorter, more digestible chunks for discussion.  Bad timing.  It's not my intention to ghost a friend so I'm just going to hit a couple of highlights.

You took my reference to "OPS .800 against lefties and righties alike is super valuable" like it's some kind of minimum standard, even though I made sure to include "super".  What's perfectly acceptable in order to be a full-time player is to mash the opposite-hand pitchers and "not be unplayable" against the same-handed ones.

I think a big difference in what we write is a) a matter of patience, and b) where does development happen.  I really don't know how long you are proposing to let someone like Larnach keep trying to be "not unplayable" against LHP.   He's now up to 360 PA against LHP and with a .583 OPS to show for it.  Do you go down with the ship by playing him consistently against LHP?

It's great if the major league coaches can provide helpful advice, but the development was supposed to happen in the minors.  Now, the dilemma is that Larnach seemed to have pretty good L/R splits in the minors.  So what happened when he reached the majors?  Did the coaches in Minneapolis fail to do their jobs?  Or did the coaches at St Paul (and below) fail to prepare him, and others like him, for how much better the pitchers in the majors will be?  I mean, tactics that help you hit a 30-year old lefty whose fastball tops out at 85 will help your AAA stats, but provides perhaps little meaningful practice, and if the coaches can explain to a prospect how to learn the things that will really matter at the next level?

Many prospects, whether they bat left-handed or right, wash out because they can't do a particular thing;  It's practically a cliche that when batters reaches a level where the pitchers can throw curves for strikes, some just never learn and their pro careers are soon over.  The history of the baseball draft is that it's very difficult to predict which prospects will wash out like that.  I don't see why it's difficult to believe, turning to L/R splits, that some batters just never will learn, when the level of competition is at the majors.  And when that starts looking like it's the case what do you do - keep beating your head against a wall thinking that the lefty hitter will learn to hit LHP?  How long do you keep throwing away plate appearance, in the name of hope?

 

[nicksaviking]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Reverse splits are rare, almost to the point of nonexistence.  Which is why I said the results this season were weird.  You aren't taking into account that the manager can push the right buttons and the machine puts out unexpected results.

Platooning isn't some weird new analytic thingamabob.  Casey Stengel did it.  Earl Weaver did it.  They weren't purposely trying to develop half ball players; they were playing the cards they were dealt.

If development is your real issue, major league usage of the finished product might be the wrong place to be looking.

I agree we want complete ballplayers - a guy who can OPS .800 against lefties and righties alike is super valuable.  Why do you think the Twins aren't trying to develop those?

 

When everyone feels their job is on the line, I’m sure nobody wants to risk game-day development. If Victor Caratini fails, they can say, ‘Hey, he’s a pro, it’s not MY fault he didn’t come through!” If a development player fails they likely feel they’d have to explain themselves.

That goes for more than just developing hitting same handed pitching. And in more professions than just baseball. 

 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence, but I think @MN Briangave you a helpful start in the right direction.  With the platoon advantages having a well-established data set to verify them, you're swimming upstream before you start.  Couple that with the impossibility of knowing a (results with platoons) to not-a (results with no platoons) and you're going to have to have a robust dataset that includes not just the outcome of success vs. rhp/lhp, but percentages of plate appearances all teams have in which a platoon advantage exists, the success rates of those at-bats, the success rate of those teams, a broader context of the players themselves and their platoon splits, and a variety of other data points synthesized in one place to be able to draw any conclusions that run counter to that beefy data set we already know is true.

I tend to think we over do it, but my qualms are mostly with our developmental process.  (In more ways than one) Once they get to the big leagues I trust our internal scouting to make the best decisions possible rather than force feeding lefty on lefty matchups.

Agree with everything you say.

I just can't help but wonder about the actual strength of the "beefy data set" and that makes me wonder about the truth. 

I recognize the data. The platoon split advantage is real. 

But when chasing the data... the platoon split data has led to the point of signing lesser players, and right now the Twins could be accused of limiting the number lefthanders.

I can't help wonder if they've gone a bit around the bend. 

I appreciate the discussion. 

 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, MN Brian said:

The python script can be run against any team, one at a time.  I had Claude add in the L/R/S count for the batters in the starting line-up -- I haven't done a sanity check on that data but it seems reasonable.

The data can be run for any time period other than this year, this example data set is 2016-2025 inclusive, so 10 years total.

twins_vs_pitcher_hand_games (version 2).csv 61.77 kB · 1 download

[Riverbrian]

36 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I've been trying to be brief (for me) because I'm on the road, taking part in a hiking club this week for some short hikes near Yosemite.  Meanwhile you broke up your reply into shorter, more digestible chunks for discussion.  Bad timing.  It's not my intention to ghost a friend so I'm just going to hit a couple of highlights.

You took my reference to "OPS .800 against lefties and righties alike is super valuable" like it's some kind of minimum standard, even though I made sure to include "super".  What's perfectly acceptable in order to be a full-time player is to mash the opposite-hand pitchers and "not be unplayable" against the same-handed ones.

I think a big difference in what we write is a) a matter of patience, and b) where does development happen.  I really don't know how long you are proposing to let someone like Larnach keep trying to be "not unplayable" against LHP.   He's now up to 360 PA against LHP and with a .583 OPS to show for it.  Do you go down with the ship by playing him consistently against LHP?

It's great if the major league coaches can provide helpful advice, but the development was supposed to happen in the minors.  Now, the dilemma is that Larnach seemed to have pretty good L/R splits in the minors.  So what happened when he reached the majors?  Did the coaches in Minneapolis fail to do their jobs?  Or did the coaches at St Paul (and below) fail to prepare him, and others like him, for how much better the pitchers in the majors will be?  I mean, tactics that help you hit a 30-year old lefty whose fastball tops out at 85 will help your AAA stats, but provides perhaps little meaningful practice, and if the coaches can explain to a prospect how to learn the things that will really matter at the next level?

Many prospects, whether they bat left-handed or right, wash out because they can't do a particular thing;  It's practically a cliche that when batters reaches a level where the pitchers can throw curves for strikes, some just never learn and their pro careers are soon over.  The history of the baseball draft is that it's very difficult to predict which prospects will wash out like that.  I don't see why it's difficult to believe, turning to L/R splits, that some batters just never will learn, when the level of competition is at the majors.  And when that starts looking like it's the case what do you do - keep beating your head against a wall thinking that the lefty hitter will learn to hit LHP?  How long do you keep throwing away plate appearance, in the name of hope?

 

Enjoy yourself. Yosemite is one of the most beautiful spots in the U.S. You should focus on that. 

This discussion will keep. 

Just being probably unnecessarily pre-emptive in hope that you lend your input down the line. 

You are consistently one of the sharper posters on this site. I've read your stuff and I've seen you think outside the box at times. 

I'll keep my response short and just comment on the third paragraph. The 4th and 5th paragraphs we can discuss when you have more time. 

To answer your third paragraph. I don't how much rope I would give Larnach. And Larnach is for example purposes. Obviously rope will have been provided. My short answer would be:  This is where... I am a strong advocate for sincere competition. 

 

[Riverbrian]

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

When everyone feels their job is on the line, I’m sure nobody wants to risk game-day development. If Victor Caratini fails, they can say, ‘Hey, he’s a pro, it’s not MY fault he didn’t come through!” If a development player fails they likely feel they’d have to explain themselves.

That goes for more than just developing hitting same handed pitching. And in more professions than just baseball. 

 

I agree with you and I believe this is another potential cause in what is going wrong with our development.

Caratini is going to get multiple shots at it. Younger options will not. 

Margot got multiple shots at it and he wasn't going to be back the following year. Younger options who could be back the following year would not. They will have to perform... RIGHT NOW... when opportunity first avails itself. 

[Riverbrian]

What is the per AB Value of a .600 OPS compared to a .700 OPS. What is the per game value? 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Agree with everything you say.

I just can't help but wonder about the actual strength of the "beefy data set" and that makes me wonder about the truth. 

I recognize the data. The platoon split advantage is real. 

But when chasing the data... the platoon split data has led to the point of signing lesser players, and right now the Twins could be accused of limiting the number lefthanders.

I can't help wonder if they've gone a bit around the bend. 

I appreciate the discussion. 

 

Well, the beefy data set is the platoon split advantage.  Given that well-established evidence, you're going to need a lot of contextual data to dispute it.  

I'm not saying you're wrong, there may even be really strong evidence that some teams are executing the strategy far better than we are too.  I'd be curious to see how it plays out, I just think there is a lot of angles you'll have to compile to get there given your inability (darn space time continum) to run a counterfactual.

How about this....we only play switch hitters.  Problem solved!