Something that led to our demise

[Riverbrian]

After beating Seth Lugo on July 28. The Twins were 41-34 in games started by Right Handed Pitchers. We averaged 4.93 runs per game. Then Randy Dobnak shut us out on July 29th. This began a stretch of 13 games of a 3.69 runs per game. We dropped a run per game but we did manage to go 6-7 in that stretch. 

On August 21 in beautiful San Diego. We shifted downward even further.  We are currently in a 14 game streak of averaging 2.78 runs per game vs RH starters and we have gone 1-13 in that stretch.

Disclaimer: I have taken out the Tigers series that we scored 37 runs in 3 games. Yeah... that will influence that 2.78 number.

We used to have a winning record against Right Handed Starters. We no longer do. This is where we collapsed. 

On another thread I have been tracking results vs RH Starters and LH Starters. I am not tracking performance against RH pitchers or LH Pitchers that data is easily found.

I'm tracking team performance vs RH Staters and LH Starters. I am tracking final results for the entire game regardless if the starter was removed in the 3rd or 8th inning and this is because the lineup is chosen primarily based on the hand of the starter and the chosen lineup does the majority of the work.

The reason I'm tracking results and categorizing RH Starters and LH Starters is because Derek Shelton sets his daily lineup (just like Rocco before him) by what hand the starter throws with. It is undeniable that Right Handed Starter or Left Handed Starter is the primary information that determines the starting lineup. I'm tracking composition so I can confidently say that it is the primary factor in the lineup. I can confidently say that it is without a doubt the primary factor in lineup selection. 

The 9 players on the lineup card do the majority of the work. They not only hit... they run the bases... they make the defensive plays. The starting lineup also determines what pinch hitters and pinch runners are available in late game situations... so I have been tracking the results

Yes... There are big huge things that play major factors in wins and losses that the research ignores... big huge things like your own pitching performance. However... the reason we platoon is to increase our chances of winning and I wanted to find out if it did that. 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

On 9/16/2026 at 5:25 AM, Riverbrian said:

the reason we platoon is to increase our chances of winning and I wanted to find out if it did that. 

Did you really find out?  If Shelton never constructs a lineup significantly contrary to platooning, how do you know whether it "increase[s] our chances of winning?"  All you are really measuring is whether an ever-varying roster did better against R or L starters.

And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash.  Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

Did you really find out?  If Shelton never constructs a lineup significantly contrary to platooning, how do you know whether it "increase[s] our chances of winning?"  All you are really measuring is whether an ever-varying roster did better against R or L starters.

And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash.  Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

You need a control sample to test the hypothesis. RB just has a real big control sample

[Riverbrian]

On 9/19/2026 at 6:58 PM, ashbury said:

Did you really find out?  If Shelton never constructs a lineup significantly contrary to platooning, how do you know whether it "increase[s] our chances of winning?"  All you are really measuring is whether an ever-varying roster did better against R or L starters.

And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash.  Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

Of course I didn't. I'm tracking Wins and Losses and my research doesn't include PITCHING. Perhaps the biggest factor in Win and Losses is PITCHING and it doesn't include pitching... so of course I didn't. 

I have acknowledged the limitations in what I'm doing in the thread. These limitations that should be obvious to all... so I didn't attach a disclaimer to every post. Apparently I should have. 

I'm tracking what I'm tracking because I can't find the information. Nobody is tracking it and sharing it as far as I can tell. So I'm doing it for one team when I need all 30 to compare and contrast but I don't have the time to do it. Since I'm doing it for the Twins... I'm sharing it. 

The information doesn't exist and it NEEDS to EXIST because ENTIRE ****ING LINEUPS ARE SET PRIMARILY BY the Handedness of the starting pitcher. That makes it about as big of an influencer as it can get.   

You say "ever-varying". I'm saying it's not "ever-varying". I'm using the word "Primarily" because I've been tracking to pretty much prove that at least in the case of the 2026 Twins... "Primarily" is correct. It is without question the primary decision maker on the daily lineups. 

Nobody is tracking it. The 9 players who are doing the majority of the hitting, the majority of the defense, the majority of the baserunning is being set due to it. Along with Batting order, who is available to pinch hit, pinch run when needed is being determined by it. Everything that isn't pitching is determined by the handedness of the pitcher. That's a huge influencer being ignored by world wide contingent of stat compilers. But it doesn't include pitching so... Of course I didn't find out.  

If entire starting lineups are set due to the hand of the starting pitcher. That is huge. HUGE!!! It needs to exist just like any stat that is being generated. I'd say it's more important than how a batter does in night games and I can find that stat.  

It is also determining who gets called up and who they roster.  This makes it a TALENT thing. Not just a platoon thing and I'm saying it's possible that the platoon thing is having a ripple effect (or affect) on the Talent thing. 

They just called up Ggon instead of Erod due to handedness not TALENT. And... And... We needed to call up Ggon due to actions that were set in motion 4 YEARS ago when they decided to declare that Larnach can't hit left handed pitching and will never be allowed to and we will make a similar roster decision 4 years from now when we have decided that Walker Jenkins can't hit left handed pitching and won't be allowed to. 

It is limiting trade value when it is time to trade Larnach and it will continue to limit trade value forever more if they continue and they seem to be continuing.  If they are purposely rostering lesser players. This is a major influencer and perhaps part of an overall larger development problem. 

And Ash... Please consider that when you state:

"And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash".  

You are kinda making my point. Not entirely but you have taken a step closer to where I am. Buxton has reverse splits this year. Last year he didn't. Ryan Jeffers has reverse splits... Last year he didn't.

Brooks Lee is 2nd in AB's against left handers this year and he is carrying a .593 OPS.

Trevor Larnach had a .608 OPS against left handers last year and he is toxic. Brooks Lee is not apparently? 

They are making decisions based on the batters box they stand in. 

I want to find out if it's helping. I haven't found out... but yeah... I also haven't found out that it has been helping.  

 

 

. 

[Riverbrian]

On 9/19/2026 at 6:58 PM, ashbury said:

Are the results an indictment of platooning, as I think you would have it?  Or are they an indictment of the lefties themselves, like Wallner, Roden, and Gray who were or have been dreadful against RHP, and even Larnach and Clemens who have been good but not really clobberin' when the team needs somebody to be doin' exactly that on th' regular? 

I'm trying to find out. I obviously have a bias against platooning but I'm trying to find out because if I'm going to remain strong on my opinions against the grain of popular opinion... I'd like more confidence in what I'm being strong about.  

Are they indictment against the lefties themselves? I suppose it is... not in the case of Roden and his limited sample but yeah... It would be an indictment against the lefties to a degree. Making this a talent discussion. It may be an indictment against how many left handed hitters you roster. Making this a platoon percentage discussion. It's actually an indictment against everyone making it a talent discussion. Probably it's more of an indictment against all of the right handed hitters against left handed pitching. 7 of them plus 3 switch gives us 10 players who will stand in the opposite batters box. Making us on paper... according to platoon advantage better equipped to face left handed pitching. 

Making this a talent discussion with the potential role platooning is playing in the selection of that talent or more importantly in my eyes... the development of that talent.  

If it's an indictment against our left handed hitters. It is also an indictment of how many left handers we allow on the roster. We only have 4 of them on the roster at the moment. We've been rolling with 3 since Gray went away. Yet... we are calling up right handers instead of more talented left handers. 

 

 

[Jim H]

I don't think this exercise of Brian's actually proves anything. But,  i agree with him.. This manic obsession with always trying to get the opposite handed hitter into the batter's box as often as possible, certainly has a huge effect on games. 

Consider that the Twins STARTED 9 different center fielders this season. Buxton started about one half the games this year. The other 8 starters seemed to be chosen primarily because of which side of the plate they stood on. Two players who had never played centerfield in pro ball before, started in centerfield. So the Twins determined who played one of the most important defensive positions on the field, basically by how they could get the most players on the correct side of the batter's box.

Other teams do similar things, there are huge numbers of manuevers teams do to get the correct batter into the batter's box during the game. Brian is right to question how much all this contributes to winning. Less optimal defensive alignments is just one of the side effects of all the movements. 

I am going to stop here. This is a topic I think should be explored more. I would also be interested in how the this is justified by the Twins management. Turning so many players into platoon pieces, changing lineups nearly every game, moving players up and down the lineup card on a daily basis, pinch hitting in the 4th or 5th inning, are all things that happen under this philosophy. It is fair to wonder how much this helps winning.

[Linus]

I’ve noticed they are letting Jenkins and Em Rod stay in there against lefties. I think this whole issue is driven by the organization’s belief they can make incremental gains by raising the floor with clever little tactics like this. I just want real hitters - the kind that raise the ceiling and don’t care which batters box they stand in. 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’ve noticed they are letting Jenkins and Em Rod stay in there against lefties. I think this whole issue is driven by the organization’s belief they can make incremental gains by raising the floor with clever little tactics like this. I just want real hitters - the kind that raise the ceiling and don’t care which batters box they stand in. 

Probably an exercise in Look and See.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I’ve noticed they are letting Jenkins and Em Rod stay in there against lefties. I think this whole issue is driven by the organization’s belief they can make incremental gains by raising the floor with clever little tactics like this. I just want real hitters - the kind that raise the ceiling and don’t care which batters box they stand in. 

With Buxton out. They need CF. And with the team basically out of contention. They are letting them hang in there. 

I'll be surprised if they allow it opening day 2027. 

But... Man... I agree with your post. Enough of this developing half ball players.