Joe Ryan Is Back From the IL, and His Stuff Appears to Be Back, Too

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

For most of the season, Joe Ryan has looked like a legitimate ace. Before the All-Star break, Ryan posted a sparkling 2.85 ERA in 110 1/3 innings. He racked up 128 strikeouts, compared to just 25 walks. He made the All-Star team, and was on the fringes of Cy Young consideration.

Then the second half began, and something looked different. Ryan made three starts after the All-Star break (before hitting the injured list); none went particularly well. He surrendered six home runs against Cleveland. He was comfortably out-dueled by former Twin Randy Dobnak in two consecutive outings. But perhaps the biggest concern wasn't even the results themselves. It was what was happening underneath them.

Ryan's four-seam fastball, the foundation of his success, appeared to lose some of its usual life. His induced vertical break fell, and hitters began squaring the pitch up with much more authority. His arm angle trended downward, and something didn't look quite right. A skipped start didn't fix what was initially reported as arm fatigue; he hit the shelf with a glute strain.

That made Monday's return especially important. Ryan didn't need to throw seven shutout innings to make his first start back from the IL a success. In many ways, the more important question was whether the stuff looked like it did before his struggles began. Based on the underlying numbers, there was plenty to like. His final stat line wasn't perfect: four innings, three hits, three runs allowed, two earned runs, one walk and seven strikeouts. The headline numbers certainly don't scream 'dominant,' and the Twins ultimately needed more than a solid four innings, as they continue slipping in the standings. But Ryan's start may have been significantly more encouraging than the final line suggests.

The first thing that immediately stood out was his fastball. After watching the induced vertical break on his four-seamer decline before his trip to the injured list, Ryan's IVB was back up to 14 inches in his return. That's the number around which he's hovered over the course of his career. For Ryan, specifically, that one or two inches can make a significant difference. He doesn't possess overwhelming velocity. His fastball works because of its unique combination of shape, extension and deception. When hitters are swinging underneath it—popping it up or missing it altogether—it becomes one of the most effective fastballs in baseball, despite sitting in the low- to mid-90s. Before the IL stint, hitters were no longer having that problem. But on Monday, the shape was back.

It wasn't just the vertical movement. Ryan was also generating significantly more horizontal movement with his pitches. His four-seamer and sweeper (the two pitches he used most often in that start) each generated roughly two additional inches of horizontal break compared to their season-long averages. That's a particularly interesting development, because Ryan's entire arsenal appeared to benefit. The increased IVB wasn't limited to his fastball, as the rest of his pitches also saw their vertical movement improve.

Ryan's velocity was also up in his return, another encouraging indication that the time away may have allowed his body to recover from the glute strain. Pitching is a full-body motion, and even an injury that has nothing to do with the arm can affect a pitcher's delivery, release point, and how his pitches move. There was never a guarantee that his glute strain had anything to do with the declining movement on his pitches, but the timing made it difficult to completely ignore the possibility. Now, following time away from the mound, the movement is back up, the velocity is up, and Ryan allowed almost no hard contact. In fact, he surrendered just one hard-hit ball all afternoon: a solo home run by Kevin McGonigle in the bottom of the first inning. Beyond that, Ryan was remarkably difficult to square up.

He also generated 12 whiffs on just 66 pitches, which is an extremely impressive rate of swing-and-miss. The one particularly interesting wrinkle? None of those 12 whiffs came on the four-seam fastball. That doesn't necessarily mean the fastball wasn't effective. If anything, the fact that Ryan's movement was back while the rest of his arsenal generated the swings and misses may be a promising sign for his next few starts. His fastball can still serve as the foundation that makes everything else work, even when it isn't directly producing the whiffs. 

While he was pulled after just 66 pitches, it's important to remember that this was his first start back from the injured list, and the Twins weren't going to ask him to immediately return to a full workload. The bigger goal was getting him back on the mound, making sure his stuff looked healthy and allowing him to build back toward a normal workload. From that perspective, Monday was difficult to view as anything other than encouraging.

One start doesn't erase the three rough outings before his trip to the IL, and at this point in the season, making sure he's at 100% for 2027 should be the priority. But this was an important first step. The version of Ryan that took the mound Monday looked considerably more like the pitcher the Twins watched dominate during the first half of the season. His fastball had regained its usual vertical break. His arsenal was generating more movement across the board. His velocity was up. And, outside of one first-inning home run, hitters struggled to make hard contact.

Monday wasn't the end of Ryan's return journey. It was more like the beginning. It was, however, an encouraging start.

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[thelanges5]

Good to see him back out there. Even if it is just to prove to the Twins and league that he’s not broken and has some value. 

[David HK]

Well, his good stuff may have been on display, but his hinky stuff was out there too.