How is this team the #1 Offense in the AL?

[stringer bell]

At this point a year ago, the Twins were a middling at best offense. At the trade deadline, they subtracted Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Ty France and Carlos Correa. In those trades they netted only one position player that has played for the Twins--Alan Roden--and he hasn't seen the major leagues in 2026. Yet, on July 6th the Twins lead the American League in runs scored. The Twins added two notable free agents, Victor Caratini and Josh Bell, plus they made waiver trades to get Tristan Gray and Ryan Kreidler. They may not finish the season with the most runs, but they are a pretty good bet to be in the top two or three. How have they gotten there?

Here are some possible reasons: 1) Bell and Caratini help more than their stats show. In not-quite full-time usage, Victor Caratini leads MLB in sacrifice flies and in full-time play Josh Bell leads the team in RBI. Both guys are switch hitters and I think, particularly in the case of Bell, they lengthen a lineup. Bell is what he is, a bat-only hitter who almost always ends up with above-average hitting numbers. The swing looks long and awkward until it doesn't and he produces. Caratini is a below-average #1 catcher, but he's an okay hitter with enough power to get the ball over the fence. Not having to platoon either guy helps with the short benches that populate MLB these days. 2) 12 guys are at least okay hitters. Currently, not counting Kyler Fedko, the Twins worst OPS is Tristan Gray at .601 and Gray had a hot start where he hit two grand slams and was hitting over .300. James Outman and Fedko have occupied that thirteenth position player spot and provided almost nothing, the rest of the guys have a chance to help the offense. 3) Hitting with RISP and hitting with two outs. Going into the weekend the Twins were the top team hitting with runners in scoring position and they were doing quite well even when there were two outs. This produces a disproportionate number of runs when compared to team OPS. When a team is going well, they get those hits, when they are struggling, it is almost an automatic out. 

I'll add a couple of observations here: Baserunning has improved. The Twins don't have a lot of fast guys, but they have done a pretty good job of avoiding unnecessary outs on the bases while taking a fair number of extra bases. RBI should not be ruled out of hand and Bell and Brooks Lee in particular have seemed to find ways to plate runners. The Twins have more than adequate power through their team. They are seventh in home runs in MLB  and they've not all been solos. I'll probably jinx it, but position player health has been pretty good.

If they really want to contend for the division or a wild card, the Twins will need to keep scoring runs more than any other AL team. The bullpen and defense can't be totally fixed on the fly in-season. The Twins' offense has been fun to watch so far this season--a lot of games like yesterday where three or more guys were all crucial to providing a winning margin. 

[amjgt]

Not explicitly stated in your post, but definitely one of the key factors is hitting with runners in scoring position. 

I believe we lead MLB in Batting Average with RISP. 

[Linus]

Good thought exercise. As you point out some of it a little luck with RISP but by a bunch of other measures they are around 8th notably OPS. I think your observation about adding the two switch hitters is insightful. I also agree that they are being aggressive on the bases with fewer bone head plays compared to last year. I’ve been critical of Falveys obsession with raising the floor while disregarding the ceiling but maybe that is what we are seeing: our worst regulars are better than before. 
I do think we are likely in for some regression but let’s find out!

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

Not explicitly stated in your post, but definitely one of the key factors is hitting with runners in scoring position. 

I believe we lead MLB in Batting Average with RISP. 

Oops... looks like I missed that you did say it. That paragraph got a little too long for me, I guess.

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Possumlad]

Short answer is we genuinely have a good offense. Some situational luck notwithstanding, we're 20 runs ahead of the next best team in the AL this year (448 vs. WSox at 428). #1 in in the AL in Team OPS as well, and 7th in the MLB.

The other half of the Box Score is killing us. Team ERA is 4.78, good for 13th in the AL & 27th in the MLB. WHIP looks very similar.

We can make a run if trade bats for pitchers at the deadline (looking at you Jeffers & Larnach)

[wesnewy]

the power of friendship, and Byron Buxton

[rickyp]

There is some fine O. Henry style irony that the only thing keeping this from being a really good team so far is that we don't have a bullpen. 🤔

[TheLeviathan]

It's honestly a good deal to do with luck.  We've had some years on the other end of this spectrum where our hit sequencing just didn't yield the run production it should have.  This year we're overproducing.

There is credit to be given on approach and coaching (clearly cutting down on Ks is a big help) but some of it is just the nature of baseball where 110 mph off the bat is an out and a "excuse me" swing dump into shallow center is a hit.  Baseball is prone to randomn outcomes.

[Possumlad]

33 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's honestly a good deal to do with luck.  We've had some years on the other end of this spectrum where our hit sequencing just didn't yield the run production it should have.  This year we're overproducing.

There is credit to be given on approach and coaching (clearly cutting down on Ks is a big help) but some of it is just the nature of baseball where 110 mph off the bat is an out and a "excuse me" swing dump into shallow center is a hit.  Baseball is prone to randomn outcomes.

Luck doesn't seem to have much to do with it - unless you just mean "luck" in the sense that our guys are playing better than they "should" be.

Our runs scored this year align pretty nearly with expectation & other hitting measures. Runs can be be quirky, but we also lead the AL in OPS. On-Base & Slug are both strong - neither is making an outsized contribution to OPS. 

Our Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is 13th in the MLB, right in the middle of the pack. No real luck there.

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Luck doesn't seem to have much to do with it - unless you just mean "luck" in the sense that our guys are playing better than they "should" be.

Our runs scored this year align pretty nearly with expectation & other hitting measures. Runs can be be quirky, but we also lead the AL in OPS. On-Base & Slug are both strong - neither is making an outsized contribution to OPS. 

Our Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is 13th in the MLB, right in the middle of the pack. No real luck there.

We have 20 runs more this season than the Yankees despite nearly identical statistics.  Same for the As, White Sox, and Rays.  We have 30 more runs scored than the Marlins despite a worse OPS.  

We've got some good sequencing going and those extra 20-30 runs are probably the difference between some of us thinking this team is actually contending and not contending.