Trade in Bulk? "Tradable Assets"

[Butterfingers8]

As we move closer to the trading deadline, we have obviously become sellers. Mr. Ryan will likely be moving a large portion of our roster to different teams, whether or not he can get fair value for them. For the purpose of speculation on this forum, I have divided our tradable “assets” into different categories:

 

Players that should without a doubt be traded

Kevin Correia- 1 year left on current contract, serviceable 5^th starter for a contending team.

Brian Duensing- arb. eligible after this year (I think for the second time). No future with the twins as they have many better options in the bullpen. Could help a contending team in desperate need of bullpen help. *Might help his value that he is left-handed and breathing.

Josh Roenicke- arb. Eligible for the first time, has but up decent numbers and it is unlikely that his value will ever increase above what it is currently. Michael Tonkin and company are knocking at the door to replace him in the pen.

Jamey Carroll- FA after the year with an expensive option. Would be a great utility guy for a contending team.

Drew Butera- will never get paid above the league minimum and is unlikely to ever put on a Twins’ uniform again. He is an outstanding defensive catcher that can be serviceable to the right contender, i.e. NYY

 

Players that probably should be traded

Mike Pelfrey- FA after the season, but he has gotten better with each start as he recovers from tj. If he keeps putting up decent starts for the rest of July, he may have some trade value. I would not mind if the Twins resigned him, pitchers are usually back to full strength in their second season after tj, this could be an offseason low risk, good return candidate.

Anthony Swarzak- will be arb. eligible for the first time this offseason. He has shown some promise as a long reliever, but the twins do have plenty of depth in the bullpen, so he becomes an expendable asset. A team in desperate need of bullpen help might take a chance on him.

Ryan Doumit- has 1 each left on an extremely team friendly deal. I feel like most contending teams would love to have a guy like him, being that he can catch. If the Twins hold on to him, that would be fine too, he is semi versatile in being able to play a few different positions at an okay level. I do not know how much he would bring in a trade, but like I said, many teams would like to have a guy like Doumit, if they can get him without giving up too much.

Justin Morneau- will be a FA this offseason. Although he is probably my favorite Twins ever, it is probably time to let him go. A change of scenery and going to a contending team really rejuvenate a veteran like Morneau. The only problem is his numbers are good but not great, he is not what he once was; if he were the Twins might not be sellers.

*Josh Willingham- team friendly deal signed through next year. Probably does not have much value know since he is on the shelf and his numbers are down this year. He could be a good waiver trade candidate in August if he comes back and produces.

 

Players that could be part of the solution, but if we have the chance we should sell high on them.

Jared Burton- signed through next year, with a team option for 2015. He has struggled this year but a contender my like a guy like Burton, especially if he continues to turn his season around. If you can get a good prospect (“B” level prospect) for him, Terry Ryan has to pull the trigger, especially if it is a starting pitching prospect.

Casey Fien- he is still in the first year of team control, it could be hard for the twins to trade a guy who has produced like Fien has, who will have a “low” salary for a while. That being said, contending teams are looking for bullpen help and he has produced this year. Like Burton, if you can get a “B” level starting pitching prospect for him, do it Terry.

 

Players we could get some value for by themselves.

Glen Perkins- Team friendly deal through 2015 with a team option for 2016. Perk is the one guy who could bring a top prospect by himself. To me, unless you can get the farm for Perk, keep him here to close out games for us when they mean something.

 

And he’s about the only one, although I would not be opposed to trading Arcia for a prospect of equal value, SP or top SS prospect.

 

So my question is, can we package all of these guys together to get just a couple top prospects? The players in the first two categories are all very expendable and if packaged together, do you think we could bring in a top prospect?

 

An example trade for what I am getting at would be something like: Correia, Duensing/Roenicke/Swarzak (one of the three), Fien or Burton, Doumit, and Morneau for Bogart and a low level SP to the Red sox. Maybe have the Twins throw in Goodrum or Danny Santana too.

Would the Red Sox bite on something like this? What about the Dbacks, Dodgers, others?

What do you guys think?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Perkins should net top prospects... Not sure a package of some of these guys (who will be marginal upgrades) will net much in terms of top prospects. Some of them should bring in some decent prospects.

 

I'd caution on trading... It's highly unlikely that all of these guys get traded. Time doesn't permit that. If the Twins move more than 3 guys, I'd be pretty impressed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Adding more fertilizer to the pile won't net a brick of gold in return. GMs may do stupid things sometimes but they're not stupid. No team is going to give up a blue chipper for a bunch of marginal players.

[Butterfingers8]

If the Twins move more than 3 guys, I'd be pretty impressed.

 

I agree with you, I do not think the twins will trade all of these guys, but thats not to say that they shouldn't. At least the guys I but into the first two categories.

[ThePuck]

As we move closer to the trading deadline, we have obviously become sellers. Mr. Ryan will likely be moving a large portion of our roster to different teams, whether or not he can get fair value for them. For the purpose of speculation on this forum, I have divided our tradable “assets” into different categories:

 

Players that should without a doubt be traded

Kevin Correia- 1 year left on current contract, serviceable 5^th starter for a contending team.

Brian Duensing- arb. eligible after this year (I think for the second time). No future with the twins as they have many better options in the bullpen. Could help a contending team in desperate need of bullpen help. *Might help his value that he is left-handed and breathing.

Josh Roenicke- arb. Eligible for the first time, has but up decent numbers and it is unlikely that his value will ever increase above what it is currently. Michael Tonkin and company are knocking at the door to replace him in the pen.

Jamey Carroll- FA after the year with an expensive option. Would be a great utility guy for a contending team.

Drew Butera- will never get paid above the league minimum and is unlikely to ever put on a Twins’ uniform again. He is an outstanding defensive catcher that can be serviceable to the right contender, i.e. NYY

 

Players that probably should be traded

Mike Pelfrey- FA after the season, but he has gotten better with each start as he recovers from tj. If he keeps putting up decent starts for the rest of July, he may have some trade value. I would not mind if the Twins resigned him, pitchers are usually back to full strength in their second season after tj, this could be an offseason low risk, good return candidate.

Anthony Swarzak- will be arb. eligible for the first time this offseason. He has shown some promise as a long reliever, but the twins do have plenty of depth in the bullpen, so he becomes an expendable asset. A team in desperate need of bullpen help might take a chance on him.

Ryan Doumit- has 1 each left on an extremely team friendly deal. I feel like most contending teams would love to have a guy like him, being that he can catch. If the Twins hold on to him, that would be fine too, he is semi versatile in being able to play a few different positions at an okay level. I do not know how much he would bring in a trade, but like I said, many teams would like to have a guy like Doumit, if they can get him without giving up too much.

Justin Morneau- will be a FA this offseason. Although he is probably my favorite Twins ever, it is probably time to let him go. A change of scenery and going to a contending team really rejuvenate a veteran like Morneau. The only problem is his numbers are good but not great, he is not what he once was; if he were the Twins might not be sellers.

*Josh Willingham- team friendly deal signed through next year. Probably does not have much value know since he is on the shelf and his numbers are down this year. He could be a good waiver trade candidate in August if he comes back and produces.

 

Players that could be part of the solution, but if we have the chance we should sell high on them.

Jared Burton- signed through next year, with a team option for 2015. He has struggled this year but a contender my like a guy like Burton, especially if he continues to turn his season around. If you can get a good prospect (“B” level prospect) for him, Terry Ryan has to pull the trigger, especially if it is a starting pitching prospect.

Casey Fien- he is still in the first year of team control, it could be hard for the twins to trade a guy who has produced like Fien has, who will have a “low” salary for a while. That being said, contending teams are looking for bullpen help and he has produced this year. Like Burton, if you can get a “B” level starting pitching prospect for him, do it Terry.

 

Players we could get some value for by themselves.

Glen Perkins- Team friendly deal through 2015 with a team option for 2016. Perk is the one guy who could bring a top prospect by himself. To me, unless you can get the farm for Perk, keep him here to close out games for us when they mean something.

 

And he’s about the only one, although I would not be opposed to trading Arcia for a prospect of equal value, SP or top SS prospect.

 

So my question is, can we package all of these guys together to get just a couple top prospects? The players in the first two categories are all very expendable and if packaged together, do you think we could bring in a top prospect?

 

An example trade for what I am getting at would be something like: Correia, Duensing/Roenicke/Swarzak (one of the three), Fien or Burton, Doumit, and Morneau for Bogart and a low level SP to the Red sox. Maybe have the Twins throw in Goodrum or Danny Santana too.

Would the Red Sox bite on something like this? What about the Dbacks, Dodgers, others?

What do you guys think?

 

Nice thread there butterfingers8! And only your second post! Hopefully brings up some good debates.

[nicksaviking]

 

Drew Butera- will never get paid above the league minimum and is unlikely to ever put on a Twins’ uniform again. He is an outstanding defensive catcher that can be serviceable to the right contender, i.e. NYY

 

 

I hate to point it out in a well written post, but Butera is already getting paid more than league minimum. Strangely, the Twins willingly gave him a raise beyond neccissary to play AAA baseball this year. The sum is still paltry considering most MLB salaries, but I thought I'd bring this odd tidbit from the off season back to light.

[ThePuck]

I hate to point it out in a well written post, but Butera is already getting paid more than league minimum. Strangely, the Twins willingly gave him a raise beyond neccissary to play AAA baseball this year. The sum is still paltry considering most MLB salaries, but I thought I'd bring this odd tidbit from the off season back to light.

 

Ah, but would he be getting more than league minimum on any other team? Just like would any other manager say that signing Punto is our #1 priority and if signed he's my starting shortstop prompting the FO to pay Punto 8M over two years? :-)

[stringer bell]

We've mined this subject extensively. The only guy who would guarantee someone with some degree of readiness and high upside would be Perkins. Throwing together some kind of package is nearly impossible. Buyers should have little room on their rosters for a group of players, they likely would need only one or two players. I expect the Twins to move two or three guys. I doubt Twins fans will be excited by the take unless Perkins leaves.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Doumit should be traded without a doubt. His positional flexibility actually seems like it's making him roadblock more players in my eyes. That's probably a bit of a false perception though. Regardless, I'd say he's giving the Twins an alternative to using Herrmann, Pinto, Parmelee, Colabello, and Arcia more often. I'm hoping that the Twins were only using Doumit in the 3 to get him more Rbi and as many plate appearances as possible (Can't bat him 1 or 2 obviously) to raise his putrid stats to trade-ability. If that were the case, he hasn't clearly not complied. I also don't think Burton has a chance at being "part of the solution" at age 32. Sure a lot of relievers can pitch into their late 30s, but it's better to cut and run then to chance it. Even if he were dominating like last season, I'd strongly advocate trading him. That would be all the more reason to. Switching gears, getting anything for Josh Roenicke and/or Brian Duensing would be a huge win. Duensing is one of my least favorite players, but I actually think the Twins might be better off keeping him for two reasons.

1: There isn't too many lefties in the system who would replace him (unless you're a fan of Darnell/Albers as a relief arm or have a high confidence in Thielbar)

2: He hardly has any value

 

However, The Twins might just give up on him anyway. I mean's he's 30 years old and has been a terrible player for the past 2 1/2 seasons. Mike Pelfrey should stay a Twin for the time being. He's got a big salary for a player who hasn't performed i.e. who wants that? Sadly outside of players we should probably keep (Fien+Perkins), the only trade bait we have that's perfoming well are our friggin long relievers.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

So really, I'm more about cutting ties with unimportant veterans who are in the way of young guys than actually acquiring value in return this deadline. The latter would be more feasible if people would play good!

[Shane Wahl]

Doumit, Fien, Duensing, Morneau, Burton, Carroll should and probably could be traded.

 

Correia, Pelfrey, Wilingham, and Plouffe either can't or shouldn't (Plouffe) be traded.

 

No one is taking Roenicke. No one is taking Butera.

 

Swarzak could be an add-in to some deal for one of the first six guys since he is a major league pitcher.

 

The Twins should and will keep Perkins. There are 5+ years of goodness there for him.

[Shane Wahl]

Thielbar, Tonkin, Achter, Watts, and Hauser (to name five) can replace the bullpen soon enough (with Pressly and Albers).

[Brandon]

You might be able to package 2 relievers together like Deunsing and Burton or Fien for a decent prospect if a contender is really struggling in their pen. As both relievers are solid and controllable beyond next year. But I have not looked around to see who needs 2 or more relievers.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Doesn't the more likely course of action involve packaging some of our marginal/weak guys with Perkins to increase the return? I agree there's little chance of grouping all of our marginal players together and netting anything at all in return, but they could easily be used to enhance a deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Doesn't the more likely course of action involve packaging some of our marginal/weak guys with Perkins to increase the return? I agree there's little chance of grouping all of our marginal players together and netting anything at all in return, but they could easily be used to enhance a deal.

 

That's more likely, in my opinion. If you package Perkins with another guy of marginal value, that might be something a team would be interested in doing.

[ashbury]

Doesn't the more likely course of action involve packaging some of our marginal/weak guys with Perkins to increase the return? I agree there's little chance of grouping all of our marginal players together and netting anything at all in return, but they could easily be used to enhance a deal.

 

I'm with you and Brock on this, but I'm not optimistic that our idea of "marginal" lines up with how GMs look at it. Guys like Parmelee, Benson (when he was still ours), Deunsing - yes those are guys who might contribute to a major league team now or someday and could sweeten a deal involving Morneau/Perkins/Doumit. Not Walters, De Vries, Swarzak, Dinkleman. Basically anyone who might clear waivers isn't going to contribute anything in a deal. For obtaining top talent, Ryan has only a few chips to bargain with.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I'm with you and Brock on this, but I'm not optimistic that our idea of "marginal" lines up with how GMs look at it. Guys like Parmelee, Benson (when he was still ours), Deunsing - yes those are guys who might contribute to a major league team now or someday and could sweeten a deal involving Morneau/Perkins/Doumit. Not Walters, De Vries, Swarzak, Dinkleman. Basically anyone who might clear waivers isn't going to contribute anything in a deal. For obtaining top talent, Ryan has only a few chips to bargain with.

 

Agreed. Morny, Perk, Doumit, Fien, Duensing, Burton are probably chips. Maybe Carroll, Correia, and Clete in a pinch. And later possibly Hammer through waivers. Hernandez, Walters, DeVries, et al could be included for some small value if a team wants to bolster their SP depth in AAA.

 

Not a whole lot more than that, other than the guys we probably want to retain. Still, some combination of the above including Perk could/should net us a top 100 prospect. Without Perk included it seems very unlikely we'll get better than 2nd tier talent back.

[Joe A. Preusser]

We've mined this subject extensively. The only guy who would guarantee someone with some degree of readiness and high upside would be Perkins. Throwing together some kind of package is nearly impossible. Buyers should have little room on their rosters for a group of players, they likely would need only one or two players. I expect the Twins to move two or three guys. I doubt Twins fans will be excited by the take unless Perkins leaves.

 

I don't think it would be hard to make a 3 for 1 swap with any of several contending teams. We have 3-4 BP guys alone who would be upgrades on several contending teams. Based on specific needs, Morny or Clete or whomever could be another piece. And in addition, our AAAA SP depth is very good and might be desirable. Add all this up and it is very plausible for us to send a package that nets a top 100 in return (including Perk of course). I do agree that most fans won't be excited by the return unless Perk is the centerpiece of the deal.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't see how our "AAAA starting pitching depth" can be described as very good. We can t even populate the major league rotation.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I'm not sure I would just give away productive bullpen arms because they are arbitration eligible. Games could get really ugly if we start giving away the one part of the team that has been consistent this year. Not to mention the Twins are not strapped for cash in the next couple years as things currently stand.

 

IMO the best bet to get a good return would be to sweeten a trade with one of our prospects in A/A+ ball. It is a little outside the box as these trades aren't as common but if the goal of the trades is to get SP or SS help that resembles a for sure MLB talent we are going to have to include a prospect in the 10-20 range in our system. This likely would be the equivalent of a top 10 prospect for most teams.

 

For the sake of argument, would Morneau and say Melotakis be enough to get a top 100 prospect at either SP or SS? How about Morneau and Kepler? I think Perkins and one of these types of prospects would be able to guarantee a top 50 SP prospect if a team is in need of a closer (with a perfect storm this could happen with Perkins alone).

[stringer bell]

I kind of agree with BJB, in that other teams might want some (many) non-40 man Twins prospects. The orginal idea of trading several guys with no options and on the 40-man is "pie in the sky" IMHO. Good teams generally aren't going to have room to take on 3-4 spots on either the 25 or 40-man rosters and few are lacking so much talent that they would want 3 or 4 guys at the deadline.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I don't see how our "AAAA starting pitching depth" can be described as very good. We can t even populate the major league rotation.

 

AAAA pitchers don't necessarily belong on the major league roster, they are there for emergency starts and fill-in duty. Hendricks, DeVries, Hernandez, Walters all fit the bill. And that's giving Correia, Deduno, Worley, Pelfrey, Diamond the benefit of the doubt that they belong in a MLB rotation. Our problem isn't back end/AAAA depth, quite the contrary. But those players don't lack value in general, only when they're all you have.

[Guest USAFChief]

AAAA pitchers don't necessarily belong on the major league roster, they are there for emergency starts and fill-in duty. Hendricks, DeVries, Hernandez, Walters all fit the bill. And that's giving Correia, Deduno, Worley, Pelfrey, Diamond the benefit of the doubt that they belong in a MLB rotation. Our problem isn't back end/AAAA depth, quite the contrary. But those players don't lack value in general, only when they're all you have.

I'm still doubtful a team in contention is going to see value in a starter not good enough to crack the Twins rotation.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I'm still doubtful a team in contention is going to see value in a starter not good enough to crack the Twins rotation.

 

By themselves? Not a chance. But as another piece in a deal centered around Perk? Could happen.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

By themselves? Not a chance. But as another piece in a deal centered around Perk? Could happen.

 

Likely how they would have value is as a throw in if we are getting a prospect from a team and they want a minor league pitcher in return to fill their system.

[diehardtwinsfan]

AAAA pitchers don't necessarily belong on the major league roster, they are there for emergency starts and fill-in duty. Hendricks, DeVries, Hernandez, Walters all fit the bill. And that's giving Correia, Deduno, Worley, Pelfrey, Diamond the benefit of the doubt that they belong in a MLB rotation. Our problem isn't back end/AAAA depth, quite the contrary. But those players don't lack value in general, only when they're all you have.

 

Here's the problem. Most teams already have an AAAA pitcher or 4. You might get someone to bite on Hendricks due to his age and giving this season the benefit of the doubt for injury, but even then, you won't get much for him.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Here's the problem. Most teams already have an AAAA pitcher or 4. You might get someone to bite on Hendricks due to his age and giving this season the benefit of the doubt for injury, but even then, you won't get much for him.

 

Again, not saying we will get anything at all for these guys by themselves. And I am assuming that most teams do not have the depth at AAAA pitcher the Twins do. 2 years ago it sure didn't seem like we did?