FSN interview with Terry Ryan [July 15, 2013]

[The Wise One]

Hindsight? Seriously?

 

Everyone here argues with hindsight

[ThePuck]

I wouldn't be too surprised if Meyer's year next year pretty closely parallels what Gibson's was this year. Barring further injury, of course.

 

From what Ryan said I'd conclude you'll be seeing Sano about a year from now.

 

That's the rub though, isn't it? They can't even really find what the problem is now, and it's in the shoulder which, from what I understand, is much worse than an elbow thing.

 

What if they do the whole rest thing, then it doesn't go away, and then they figure out the problem and surgery is needed? That scenario is hardly out of the realm of a real possibility.

[ThePuck]

Everyone here argues with hindsight

 

he's acting as if no one could predict a serious problem with the rotation this year based on who we brought in. That's not hindsight, there were tons of fans questioning the rotation before spring training ever started.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think Terry Ryan should have signed one of the better free agent pitchers last offseason that didn't actually exist.

He should have signed Liriano to an extension last year when he had every opportunity to do so cheaply.

[Brock Beauchamp]

he's acting as if no one could predict a serious problem with the rotation this year based on who we brought in. That's not hindsight, there were tons of fans questioning the rotation before spring training ever started.

 

Absolutely, but it shows how little we know because most of our vitriol was pointed at the wrong guy and many of the pitchers we wanted turned out to be flat-out awful and/or injured this year.

 

Really, there is one guy who has been great this season... Sanchez. Past that, the FA crop looks really, really bad.

[Craig Arko]

That's the rub though, isn't it? They can't even really find what the problem is now, and it's in the shoulder which, from what I understand, is much worse than an elbow thing.

 

What if they do the whole rest thing, then it doesn't go away, and then they figure out the problem and surgery is needed? That scenario is hardly out of the realm of a real possibility.

 

And the big asteroid could hit tomorrow. I choose not to assume the worst case. Let's see if he really comes back in August, and if so, how that goes before speculating.

 

Plus, consider the golden opportunity for hindsight.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He should have signed Liriano to an extension last year when he had every opportunity to do so cheaply.

 

This team had plenty of reasons to kick Francisco to the curb. After over half a decade of dealing with him, it's forgivable to throw up your hands in frustration and move on.

 

On the other hand, I wouldn't have minded them re-signing him, either. He's an enigma... But you can't hold an enigmatic player over the heads of management. They gave him a shot.... And another shot... And another shot... He was infuriating. It's great that he's having a nice season in Pittsburgh but there's a good chance he's back to a 5.50 ERA next season, because that's who he is as a player. Eminently talented and even more frustrating to watch.

[The Wise One]

he's acting as if no one could predict a serious problem with the rotation this year based on who we brought in. That's not hindsight, there were tons of fans questioning the rotation before spring training ever started.

With hindsight and the pitchers selected in the earlier post you can see from the pitchers possibly available Ryan did not kake a mistake by signing them. He did not fix the hole in the roster by what he signed, nor would have he if he had signed these.

[Guest USAFChief]

This team had plenty of reasons to kick Francisco to the curb. After over half a decade of dealing with him, it's forgivable to throw up your hands in frustration and move on.

 

On the other hand, I wouldn't have minded them re-signing him, either. He's an enigma... But you can't hold an enigmatic player over the heads of management. They gave him a shot.... And another shot... And another shot... He was infuriating. It's great that he's having a nice season in Pittsburgh but there's a good chance he's back to a 5.50 ERA next season, because that's who he is as a player. Eminently talented and even more frustrating to watch.

 

All true, but I'd take "eminently talented and frustrating to watch" over " frustratingly devoid of hope for much better" every day.

 

There's a reason he got all those opportunities. And I sorta feel justified in "holding him over the heads of management" because it wasn't too hard to predict what they had planned instead.

[ThePuck]

Absolutely, but it shows how little we know because most of our vitriol was pointed at the wrong guy and many of the pitchers we wanted turned out to be flat-out awful and/or injured this year.

 

Really, there is one guy who has been great this season... Sanchez. Past that, the FA crop looks really, really bad.

 

Again, you keep saying the wrong guy. You wanna believe that, that's fine. Saying it as fact is surely premature, but that's your choice. I wouldn't be surprised at all if in the 2nd half Pelfrey ended up better than Correia considering the fact it's been trending that way for nearly a month now.

[ThePuck]

What is your point?

 

That it's unfortunate we may very well have to wait quite a bit longer for a guy we're all hoping can be somewhat of an ace and then there's the wonder if he'll come back the same. My point seemed pretty clear.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Again, you keep saying the wrong guy. You wanna believe that, that's fine. Saying it as fact is surely premature, but that's your choice. I wouldn't be surprised at all if in the 2nd half Pelfrey ended up better than Correia considering the fact it's been trending that way for nearly a month now.

 

For half the season, Kevin Correia has been a league average pitcher and better than the vast majority of free agent acquisitions. That's all I'm saying.

 

I've even mentioned that he still has a long way to go before the season is over. But to deny that he's been pretty good thus far is to ignore the reality of the situation and that is:

 

- Kevin Correia was predicted to be very, very bad by most of us here

- Kevin Correia has been a pretty decent league average starter

- Most of the FA crop of this offseason has exploded spectacularly in one way or another

[DaveW]

I still thought they should have brought Liriano back, but who knows, maybe without the change of scenery he doesn't produce this year

This also isn't a wasted year for Meyer, he still has a good shot to be up next June regardless if he only pitches a few more games this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

All true, but I'd take "eminently talented and frustrating to watch" over " frustratingly devoid of hope for much better" every day.

 

Which is why I wasn't dead-set against them re-signing him, either. This is a situation where it's pretty easy to see both sides of the argument and only in hindsight can one side yell "HA, TOLD YOU SO" because there was just as good a chance that Francisco was going to explode like a hand grenade, particularly when he injured himself in the offseason and had to renegotiate his contract.

[ThePuck]

For half the season, Kevin Correia has been a league average pitcher and better than the vast majority of free agent acquisitions. That's all I'm saying.

 

I've even mentioned that he still has a long way to go before the season is over. But to deny that he's been pretty good thus far is to ignore the reality of the situation and that is:

 

- Kevin Correia was predicted to be very, very bad by most of us here

- Kevin Correia has been a pretty decent league average starter

- Most of the FA crop of this offseason has exploded spectacularly in one way or another

 

Do you want me to copy and paste my posts from earlier in this thread showing where I disagree with points one and two there and continue this never ending circle, or should we just move on from Correia? Cause one of the rules of this place is not to keep hammering a point to try and prove you're right. I keep trying to move on, you keep bringing it up.

[ThePuck]

Which is why I wasn't dead-set against them re-signing him, either. This is a situation where it's pretty easy to see both sides of the argument and only in hindsight can one side yell "HA, TOLD YOU SO" because there was just as good a chance that Francisco was going to explode like a hand grenade, particularly when he injured himself in the offseason and had to renegotiate his contract.

 

I have zero issues with letting Liriano go. There is no way to tell if he would have had the success with us that he's having now and the only thing that we can go by is how he did with us. Same thing with Gomez, while we're at it.

[ThePuck]

And the big asteroid could hit tomorrow. I choose not to assume the worst case. Let's see if he really comes back in August, and if so, how that goes before speculating.

 

Plus, consider the golden opportunity for hindsight.

 

Assuming the worst, or preparing for all contingenices based on recent history? How many arm issues have we seen settled by prolonged rest? We're wondering abotu whether or not he comes back in August when we don't even know what's stopping him from taking the mound to begin with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Do you want me to copy and paste my posts from earlier in this thread showing where I disagree with points one and two there and continue this never ending circle, or should we just move on from Correia? Cause one of the rules of this place is not to keep hammering a point to try and prove you're right. I keep trying to move on, you keep bringing it up.

 

If you want to stop talking about Kevin Correia, then stop talking about Kevin Correia. I didn't bring him up in this thread. You did that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have zero issues with letting Liriano go. There is no way to tell if he would have had the success with us that he's having now and the only thing that we can go by is how he did with us. Same thing with Gomez, while we're at it.

 

I find the backlash (way after the fact, mind you) of trading Gomez to be really irritating. The Twins received a good return on the guy (it's not Hardy's fault he was later given away for a Snickers bar and a fungo bat) and he struggled for two more seasons for breaking out.

 

Sometimes, guys take awhile to adjust and mature. Gomez looks to be one of those guys and if the Twins had retained Hardy, the trade would have been considered a good one by both sides.

[TheLeviathan]

Which is why I wasn't dead-set against them re-signing him, either. This is a situation where it's pretty easy to see both sides of the argument and only in hindsight can one side yell "HA, TOLD YOU SO" because there was just as good a chance that Francisco was going to explode like a hand grenade, particularly when he injured himself in the offseason and had to renegotiate his contract.

 

You talk as if that couldn't happen tomorrow anyway. We always get reminded about how Liriano is talented if he strings so much as two starts together that don't stink. Guy is pitching well.....but we have seen that before.

 

also, I find it irritating that we often assume similar results in different situations. Liriano might have just found the right spot for him for now, be it the NL, the coaching, the teammates or whatever.

[jorgenswest]

Ryan went the right way about fixing the rotation long term in acquiring young pitchers in Meyer, May and Worley. Hopefully he will add another this summer.

[nicksaviking]

All true, but I'd take "eminently talented and frustrating to watch" over " frustratingly devoid of hope for much better" every day.

 

There's a reason he got all those opportunities. And I sorta feel justified in "holding him over the heads of management" because it wasn't too hard to predict what they had planned instead.

 

And even if it isn't eminantly clear, isn't it possible Liriano's problem's were not entirely on him, but perhaps those coaching and instructing him held some blame? He came up as a rookie and was lights out using a healthy dose of his slider at the expense of his fastball. He got hurt and the team asked him to stop using the slider excessively and he struggled. He signs with the Pirates and he's back to using the slider as mush as his heart desires and again the fastball is the pitch that takes a hit. The increased slider, decreased fastball did happen one other year in a Twins uniform, his seemingly resurgent 2010 season. Why they made him alter his approach the following season is puzzling.

 

Obviously the talent has been lacking in the rotation lately, but still, if for the past half decade you have more starting pitchers underachieve than overachieve, there might be a coaching/stratagy issue.

[TheLeviathan]

If I remember the Twins blamed the slider overuse for his arm blowout. So either they are going to be proved wrong or right by his health.

[Guest USAFChief]

Ryan went the right way about fixing the rotation long term in acquiring young pitchers in Meyer, May and Worley. Hopefully he will add another this summer.

 

That remains to be seen.

 

Also, re Liriano: if we're going to posit that "a change of scenery" is a reason he's enjoying success, and there's no way to know if he'd be doing as well here, then we have to include the same rationale when we're patting Ryan on the back for all the FA busts he didn't sign, no? Maybe they'd be lights out if only they had signed with the Twins,

[ThePuck]

Ryan went the right way about fixing the rotation long term in acquiring young pitchers in Meyer, May and Worley. Hopefully he will add another this summer.

 

 

ATTEMPTING to fix the rotation long term. Nothing wrong with that, but there's no guarantee there.

[TheLeviathan]

That remains to be seen.

 

Also, re Liriano: if we're going to posit that "a change of scenery" is a reason he's enjoying success, and there's no way to know if he'd be doing as well here, then we have to include the same rationale when we're patting Ryan on the back for all the FA busts he didn't sign, no? Maybe they'd be lights out if only they had signed with the Twins,

 

maybe but you have been overlooking Lirianos consistent penchant for awfulness to bang the drum on him for several seasons. He needed to go and I would like to see two consecutive non-awful years before I declare a multi year deal wise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And even if it isn't eminantly clear, isn't it possible Liriano's problem's were not entirely on him, but perhaps those coaching and instructing him held some blame? He came up as a rookie and was lights out using a healthy dose of his slider at the expense of his fastball. He got hurt and the team asked him to stop using the slider excessively and he struggled. He signs with the Pirates and he's back to using the slider as mush as his heart desires and again the fastball is the pitch that takes a hit. The increased slider, decreased fastball did happen one other year in a Twins uniform, his seemingly resurgent 2010 season. Why they made him alter his approach the following season is puzzling.

 

Obviously the talent has been lacking in the rotation lately, but still, if for the past half decade you have more starting pitchers underachieve than overachieve, there might be a coaching/stratagy issue.

 

Time should tell us the answer to this... The Twins were concerned that his arm would explode under an extreme slider load. Now that he's throwing more sliders, we'll probably know whether they were right or wrong in that belief.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no issue with the Liriano decsion, sometimes you just need to move on.

[cmathewson]

I'm glad you guys like Correia. I guess I'm in the minority. I wanted Ryan to actual seriously improve the rotation, not have pitchers do well based on what they are being paid. How much is our current rotation getting paid? I guess I should be happy cause they're getting paid like 11M. Can't expect much for that.

 

I guess I should be happy with his 4.23 season ERA, a WHIP over 1.400, and and ERA over 5.00 with only 4 quality starts over the last two months.

 

And, again, I don't care what any player's paycheck is, that's a owner/FO issue. I care about having players with quality seasons.

 

Put it this way, of the 30 or so guys to whom the Twins have given significant playing time, Correia is near the bottom of the list of guys to complain about.

[Nick Nelson]

His last 5 starts he [Pelfrey] has a 3.74 ERA. I think he's turned the corner from his operation and I bet he ERA during the 2nd half will be closer to 4.00.

And what good does that do the Twins? He still has the third-worst ERA in the majors, he has no trade value, and he's on a one-year deal. Pelfrey might have a solid second half for a team with no hope but the only thing that does is ramp up his market value going forward and take away opportunities from a younger guy who might be part of the future.

 

The problem with Pelfrey was always that, as a guy 11 months removed from TJ, his best case scenario was "bad in the first half, better in the second half." On a one-year deal, that just wasn't going to do the non-competitive Twins any good. Now, if they had gone over someone with a little first-half upside (e.g. Scott Feldman) they could have possibly flipped him for something useful.

 

The Quality Start is nonsense because a guy can go 5.2 innings of a shutout and not get credit. He can pitch 8 innings, give up four runs, and not get credit. But if he hits that magic threshold of six innings and three runs, he's golden. QS rival the Save for tops in the Dumb Stat From The 1960s That Needs To Go Away Forever category.

I'm actually going to disagree with you here. I think the QS is a fine shorthand stat. Obviously it's imperfect (5 ER & 0 ER or 9 IP & 4 ER > 6 IP & 3 ER) but in the long run the 6IP/3ER barometer generally does a decent job of separating the good starts from the bad starts. It shouldn't be treated as gospel but it tends to give you a pretty accurate portrayal of how often the guy in question has pitched deep and given his team a solid chance to win.