FSN interview with Terry Ryan [July 15, 2013]

[Brock Beauchamp]

So now the QS start is so bad, it's reached the depths of how bad the win/loss stat is for pitchers?

 

As bad? Probably not, because the Win is so reliant on teammate performance.

 

In the same category? In my opinion, yes.

 

When you get right down to it, the QS is nearly as arbitrary and flawed as the Win. It's dependent on some pretty arbitrary numbers and can be awarded for mediocre performances while not awarded for quite good performances... Much like a Win.

 

But if you look at the end of the season, you can parse pitchers based on Wins and their ERA, IP, and several other stats generally fall in line with Wins, much like they do QS. Which is kinda my point. It tells something about the pitcher but not enough to be very useful, particularly when many other, better, stats are readily available.

[ThePuck]

As bad? Probably not, because the Win is so reliant on teammate performance.

 

In the same category? In my opinion, yes.

 

When you get right down to it, the QS is nearly as arbitrary and flawed as the Win. It's dependent on some pretty arbitrary numbers and can be awarded for mediocre performances while not awarded for quite good performances.

 

okay

[DaveW]

 

When you get right down to it, the QS is nearly as arbitrary and flawed as the Win. It's dependent on some pretty arbitrary numbers and can be awarded for mediocre performances while not awarded for quite good performances... Much like a Win.

.

 

uhh...no it isn't at all..

[Brock Beauchamp]

uhh...no it isn't at all..

 

5 IP, 4 ER can net a Win.

9 IP, 1 ER can net a Loss.

 

5.2 IP, 0 ER is not a QS.

6 IP, 3 ER is a QS.

9 IP, 4 ER is not a QS.

 

Both arbitrary, both flawed. One is certainly worse than the other. That doesn't mean the latter is good because the former is worse.

 

And, again, use W/L in large enough numbers and you'll see a correlation to quality, much like the QS. Bad pitchers don't win 15 games, just like bad pitchers don't compile 20 QS in a season. That doesn't mean either stat is worth a damn in the short-term.

[Craig Arko]

So who replaces Matt Smith as the Doctor next year?

 

I'd love to see Terry Ryan's take on this.

[PseudoSABR]

Of course wins depend onthe offense of your team, which the pitcher cannot control. While the line of what makes a quality start a quality start is arbitrary, pitchers still, largely, contribute far more to a quality start than they do a win. The comparison seems tenuous at best. They are arbitrary for completely different reasons.

 

QS is a quick and dirty stat that can tell you something about consistency, endurance, and baseline effectiveness. It has value, but it's hardly a go-to statistic for anyone.

[chopper0080]

I'm glad you guys like Correia. I guess I'm in the minority. I wanted Ryan to actual seriously improve the rotation, not have pitchers do well based on what they are being paid. How much is our current rotation getting paid? I guess I should be happy cause they're getting paid like 11M. Can't expect much for that.

 

I guess I should be happy with his 4.23 season ERA, a WHIP over 1.400, and and ERA over 5.00 with only 4 quality starts over the last two months.

 

And, again, I don't care what any player's paycheck is, that's a owner/FO issue. I care about having players with quality seasons.

 

I am ok with Correia as a #4 or #5, not a #1. That being said, that isn't Correia's fault. A good signing that will go overlooked because the Twins made it their top SP signing rather than a solid value move to complement a better one.

[Mike Sixel]

So who replaces Matt Smith as the Doctor next year?

 

I'd love to see Terry Ryan's take on this.

 

dude, spoilers......some of us only get to watch on netflix, don't have BBC.....thought I knew this, so no harm done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So who replaces Matt Smith as the Doctor next year?

 

I'd love to see Terry Ryan's take on this.

 

Amy set a bad precedent in Doctor Who. The hot companion with very little to offer as a character. Now it appears Clara is in the same vein.

 

Personally, I want to see Judy Dench rock it as the Doctor. That would reaffirm some faith in Moffat as the show head.

[Craig Arko]

Amy set a bad precedent in Doctor Who. The hot companion with very little to offer as a character. Now it appears Clara is in the same vein.

 

Personally, I want to see Judy Dench rock it as the Doctor. That would reaffirm some faith in Moffat as the show head.

 

That would be outstanding. And with Cumberbatch as The Master.

[Mike Sixel]

SPOILERS, come on.......

[snepp]

SPOILERS, come on.......

 

Speaking of, since we're already waaaaaaaay off-topic, Brock, how hard would it be to add the "spoiler" tag to the forum software?

[Craig Arko]

They could also do much worse than hiring Alex Kingston for the role, too, IMHO.

 

Oh, and dinosaurs were still walking the Earth when this thread segued from its topic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Speaking of, since we're already waaaaaaaay off-topic, Brock, how hard would it be to add the "spoiler" tag to the forum software?

 

Really easy. All it takes is for the user to type "SPOILER" in really big letters in the title of the post.

 

[snepp]

Really easy. All it takes is for the user to type "SPOILER" in really big letters in the title of the post.

 

 

 

If I could ban an admin......

[nicksaviking]

Is this a game thread? I didn't know we had one today.

[ashbury]

Pretty good job by Perkins, getting Hafner to pop out harmlessly to right field to end the game.

[Kwak]

My favorite will always be Big Papi. I still have friends who will talk about what a terrible move it was trading him, as if he wasn't injured and/or unproductive for most of his stint with us.

He wasn't traded, he was non-tendered. Ryan and Gardenhire prefered Matt LeCroy because: (not in any order) LeCroy batted RH and "could play" Catcher; would have been paid rookie minimum salary as opposed to Ortiz going to 1st arbitration; and Ortiz played 1B or DH and "quarreled" with management about pulling the ball and hitting HRs.

 

Feel free to insert any "Ryan comment" you wish.

 

Smith "overplayed his hand" and disrespected the Yankees and the Red Sox after Smith asked for "their best offer"--so they withdrew their offers. Any of the Red Sox offers were better than the Mets offer (and Smith tried to "jack them around too", but they learned of NYY and BOST's withdrawals and turned the table on Smith). Smith had his leverage--but judged badly--thus proving he was way over his level at the GM position.

[Kwak]

The "Win" stat was relevant when pitchers pitched the entire game. Given the explosion of relief pitchers used much of its value is diluted--but it's not useless. Posters have stated other metrics measuring pitchers--but missing is the contribution of the rest of the team anyway. Superior (or substandard fielding), psychological elements (for all) play significant roles. I don't think there is a rubric that incorporates every factor and eliminates the contributions of a pitcher's teammates.

[Joe A. Preusser]

This is always amusing to me. People come up with some extreme scenario that would never actually occur in real life, then use it to prove that the statistic is "completely worthless."

 

Very true this is an extreme scenario, only used to show how arbitrary and therefor irrelevant the stat is.

[Guest USAFChief]

Time should tell us the answer to this... The Twins were concerned that his arm would explode under an extreme slider load. Now that he's throwing more sliders, we'll probably know whether they were right or wrong in that belief.

 

It's kind of off subject, but for the record, according to fangraphs, Liriano is throwing an extra 4 or 5 sliders this year (depending on if you go by pitch/fx or pitch type) compared to 2012 per 100 pitches.

 

It's not like he's radically changed anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's kind of off subject, but for the record, according to fangraphs, Liriano is throwing an extra 4 or 5 sliders this year (depending on if you go by pitch/fx or pitch type) compared to 2012 per 100 pitches.

 

It's not like he's radically changed anything.

 

I didn't expect the number to be double digits but a ~5% shift is pretty significant.

[PseudoSABR]

Very true this is an extreme scenario, only used to show how arbitrary and therefor irrelevant the stat is.

It is arbitrary, but that in and of itself doesn't necessitate that it's irrelevant. Its use is limited, but it can help put other numbers into context.

 

For instance having back end of the rotation guys that rack of quality starts is probably a good thing. But as a measure of ace-like production, it's cursory.