Twins Ace Joe Ryan Got Good Results in Spring Debut, but with Unimpressive Stuff

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

After a delayed start to spring training due to back tightness, Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan finally took the mound in game action for the first time on Tuesday. He faced the Tampa Bay Rays, the organization that originally drafted him back in 2018. Despite some apparent rust, Ryan delivered three scoreless innings, showcasing both his full arsenal and his ability to attack hitters with confidence.

Ryan’s outing was efficient and controlled, though not necessarily flashy. He threw a total of 48 pitches over his three frames, allowing just two hits and two walks, but he also recorded no strikeouts. Of those pitches, 31 found the strike zone, indicating that while Ryan wasn’t missing bats in this first spring appearance, he was effectively challenging hitters. Notably, only four of Ryan’s 48 pitches were thrown to right-handed hitters, so the bulk of his work came against lefties. Given that he struggled more against left-handed hitters last season, it was valuable for him to get early reps against a predominantly left-handed lineup.

The Twins’ ace set the tone early. After needing just four pitches to record his first two outs, he navigated a two-out double and a walk before finishing the inning unscathed. His second inning was his most efficient, a 10-pitch 1-2-3 frame, before he closed out the third inning by working around another two-out base hit and a walk. While the surface stats may not jump off the page, Ryan’s ability to manage base runners and escape trouble is emblematic of the pitching intelligence that has made him a cornerstone of Minnesota’s rotation.

Ryan’s pitch mix was on full display during the outing, but he's far from midseason form. His four-seam fastball had an average velocity of 92 MPH and reached a peak of 93.5, only slightly below his 2025 average of 93.7. It had decent movement, generating over 12 inches of run and 14 inches of rise on average, keeping hitters off balance and setting up his secondary pitches.

By consistently locating his fastball up in the zone, Ryan was able to manipulate the lower portion of the strike zone with his breaking and off-speed pitches. His splitter generated all three of the whiffs he got on the day. Meanwhile, both the sweeper and curveball consistently landed near the bottom of the zone with sharp glove-side movement, keeping hitters guessing and preventing them from sitting on one pitch.

It's normal to see a pitcher work slightly below their in-season averages during their first game or two of spring training. but it's impossible to ignore the fact that Ryan's stuff was down on Tuesday. Across the board, he was missing about 2 MPH on each of his offerings, relative to last season. To compare apples to apples, let's line up his averages Tuesday with his spring training numbers from the last two years.

	2024			2025			2026
Pitch Type	Velocity	Hor. Mvmt.	Ind. Vert. Break	Velocity	Hor. Mvmt.	Ind. Vert. Break	Velocity	Hor. Mvmt.	Ind. Vert. Break
Four-Seamer	93.2	12	13.9	92	12.3	13.3	92	12	14
Sinker	92.2	16.4	9	90.6	15	7.7	90.1	17	8
Splitter	87.8	14.5	0.9	86.6	14.2	-1.1	85.7	15	6
Slider	86.2	-2.4	3.8	85.6	4.1	3	84.3	-3	6
Sweeper	80.7	-14.8	2.1	79.1	-18.4	-0.5	78.2	-15	-2
Curveball							77.4	-14	-10

His fastball was right where it was last year, but note how down the velocities on his splitter, slider and sweeper are. For the balance of the spring, those numbers will be worth watching.

Looking ahead, the expectation is that Ryan’s velocity will return to normal as he continues his spring ramp-up. If that happens, his secondary pitches should play better, generating more swings and misses and making him an even tougher assignment for opposing hitters. For the Twins, having their ace healthy and executing his repertoire effectively early in spring is a critical step toward maintaining a strong rotation in 2026.

All things considered, Joe Ryan’s first outing of 2026 spring training can be viewed as a success. He demonstrated poise, command, and the ability to attack hitters while showcasing his full arsenal. There are several boxes he didn't check, but it was his first taste of competition. If his stuff ticks up as he gets into the routine of the Grapefruit League, he should be the same frontline starter he was throughout 2025.

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[thelanges5]

Good first outing for Joe. I remain hopeful that he can build up to be the opening day starter.

[CRF]

He'll be fine. 

[LambchoP]

As long as he's healthy, it was a success.

[mluebker]

I didn’t see the game, so I’m trying to figure out whether he “recorded no strikeouts” or “three … whiffs … on the day.”

[Chembry]

20 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I didn’t see the game, so I’m trying to figure out whether he “recorded no strikeouts” or “three … whiffs … on the day.”

The game wasn't on TV.  Whiffs = swing and miss...He got three swing and misses but didn't record a strikeout.

[Trov]

I never take any stalk in spring numbers when it comes to vets, even more so vet pitchers.  They normally spend the spring working on new pitch or just getting back into season mode.  They are never going to look to bear down to get a strike out or something like that.

[mluebker]

23 hours ago, Chembry said:

Whiffs = swing and miss

Well, count me among the old guys who grew up with whiffs = strikeouts, and had never seen it used that way before. 

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