Pohlads Willing to Spend?

[Guest USAFChief]

It required a 10 year $240 million deal to sign the 32-year-old Pujols.

It required an 8 year $184 million deal to sign the 28-year-old Mauer.

 

Those deals were only similar in the fact that they invovled a team's franchise player. The Cardinals had already given Pujols one $100 million + contract.

 

And the Cardinals had won one World Series with Pujols and now one without him. They have proven that they know what they are doing. As you mentioned, St. Louis has a similar revenue as the Twins. They have had no reservations about signing and trading for star players of every caliber.

 

Bonus: St. Louis asked for the public to pay for 13% of their stadium. The Pohlad's demaned the public pay 66%.

 

I can't think of any positive way the Twins can be compared to the Cardinals.

Not to mention, according to published reports, St Louis offered Pujols a 9 yr deal in the $200M range before he signed with the Angels.

 

Seems like St Louis was indeed willing.

[ThePuck]

Not to mention, according to published reports, St Louis offered Pujols a 9 yr deal in the $200M range before he signed with the Angels.

 

Seems like St Louis was indeed willing.

 

They were absolutely willing to sign him to a huge contract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Those drafts were still OMG TERRIBLE. Some first rounders turned out to be decent. No one turned out to be great. One guy is a good relief pitcher, which isn't that valuable. You don't expect a star out of a 40th round pick. You do expect one out of unlimited rounds over five years.

 

Those drafts = 90+ losses, most likely three years in a row, and counting.

 

Plouffe looks to be a pretty decent player. Revere is a decent stopgap type player. Garza is obviously a good player. Perkins is very good.

 

I'm not sure what you can expect from a team that picked in the bottom half of the draft almost every year of the 2000s. If you're getting a productive player out of every draft, you're doing moderately well for yourself.

 

Smith caused his own demise. Add Matt Garza to those late 2000s Twins teams and it's an entirely different scenario.

[TheLeviathan]

Plouffe looks to be a pretty decent player. Revere is a decent stopgap type player. Garza is obviously a good player. Perkins is very good.

 

Right, but only two of them were actually relevant. The other two had some late surges to become relevant. Hell, Perkins was all but cut.

 

Smith cooked himself, but let's not pretend Ryan handed him a good organization. He handed him a good major league squad and a minor league system that was a mess. Picking late can excuse not getting elite talent, it doesn't excuse two relevant players in your upper minors over a 4-5 year span.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Right, but only two of them were actually relevant. The other two had some late surges to become relevant. Hell, Perkins was all but cut.

 

Smith cooked himself, but let's not pretend Ryan handed him a good organization. He handed him a good major league squad and a minor league system that was a mess. Picking late can excuse not getting elite talent, it doesn't excuse two relevant players in your upper minors over a 4-5 year span.

 

Ryan left Smith in a very difficult situation.

 

Then, thinking that bad situation wasn't bad enough, Smith went and shot himself in the foot by decimating the pitching staff in one offseason.

 

Those mid-2000s drafts are a good example why a draft can't accurately be judged for so long. Yeah, those drafts looked terrible until 18 months ago. Now, a few of them look okay. But in the short-term (Smith's tenure), those drafts turned out virtually nothing useful for the franchise. Ultimately, they paid dividends but it took a long time.

[ThePuck]

Right, but only two of them were actually relevant. The other two had some late surges to become relevant. Hell, Perkins was all but cut.

 

Smith cooked himself, but let's not pretend Ryan handed him a good organization. He handed him a good major league squad and a minor league system that was a mess. Picking late can excuse not getting elite talent, it doesn't excuse two relevant players in your upper minors over a 4-5 year span.

 

I remember the year Plouffe and Perkins were drafted. I wanted the Twins to get Pedroia bad. We had six chances. Red Sox come in, their first pick of the draft (which came in the second round), and get him. What a let down. He was the one position player in that draft I was craving to be a Twin, and we had six chances to get him.

[Major League Ready]

I have to conceed that I did not specifically limit this to starting pitching but that was the intent if you look at the context of the post. You are also talking about retention of existing players vs acquiring free agents. This is common. Milwaukee retained Braun but let Grienke go and there are many other examples including Mauer and Santana.

 

The point remains that many of you continue to complain about free agent pitching the fact is that the majority of those deals did not work out at all. And, historically, more of those deals have failed than have succeeded. Had Ryan done what most of you wished he just would have flushed the dollars.

[ThePuck]

I have to conceed that I did not specifically limit this to starting pitching but that was the intent if you look at the context of the post. You are also talking about retention of existing players vs acquiring free agents. This is common. Milwaukee retained Braun but let Grienke go and there are many other examples including Mauer and Santana.

 

The point remains that many of you continue to complain about free agent pitching the fact is that the majority of those deals did not work out at all. And, historically, more of those deals have failed than have succeeded. Had Ryan done what most of you wished he just would have flushed the dollars.

 

During your chastising, you brought up Pujols and Mauer. Position players. But overall, I personally understood you meant pitchers. I was expanding the scope to another poster, that's all.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins first round picks, even during the minor league drought, have likely been better than average considering nearly all of their top picks have contributed in some form. However, it may speak to the depth of the scouting department that they have only had a handfull of guys drafted and signed after round 2 that have made even minor contributions.

 

I'm no scout, but this might suggest that the Twins were able to succesfully evaluate the top players that were commonly know and every team was aware of, but they may not have been very good at the discovery of players. Things may have changed, recent drafts will tell.

[Kwak]

Somehow this thread has moved to the draft. Many posts (in other threads) have rationalized that the Twins were penalized by drafting late and that the FO should be excused--so I looked up Tampa Bay's rotation (as they are often cited for solely being successful due to early draft position)--and here's what I found (yahoosports):

 

Chris Archer Cleveland Round 6 haven't yet found out he got to TB, but a 6th rounder

 

Jeremy Hellickson Round 4 2005

 

Roberto Hernandez signed as a 19,20 yr old out of DRep. by Cleveland

 

Matt Moore 8th round 2005

 

David Price 1st OA 2007

 

 

Some of these guys (Price and Hernandez) not signable by the Twins--but the other three could have been drafted and signed! Point--there is major league talent past the first 50. The claim of too late to draft well--is refuted. I could add that Tampa drafted very early for many years until the 2008 season--and not always successfully!

[nicksaviking]

 

The point remains that many of you continue to complain about free agent pitching the fact is that the majority of those deals did not work out at all. And, historically, more of those deals have failed than have succeeded. Had Ryan done what most of you wished he just would have flushed the dollars.

 

Many don't work out, but the problem is, this team has drafted and developed 2 ace caliber pitchers in the 50 years they have been in this state. This organization has historically not been able to evaluate and develop their own guys who could lead a pitching staff to a championship.

 

So, is free agecny a long shot? Sure, but at least it's a shot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's not exactly news that the Rays drafted better than the Twins. I don't think anyone is arguing that point.

[ThePuck]

Point--there is major league talent past the first 50. The claim of too late to draft well--is refuted. I could add that Tampa drafted very early for many years until the 2008 season--and not always successfully!

 

KC had how many years of high draft picks? The Pirates? Red Sox didn't even have a first rounder in 2004, somehow got Pedroia in the 2nd round. In fact lots of talent that year in the 2nd-6th round. Pedroia, Desmond, Pence, Vargas, Gallardo, Lind, Zobrist.

 

There's talent everywhere in the draft, though the odds are indeed better if you're in the top 10, though plenty of busts there too.

[drjim]

Somehow this thread has moved to the draft. Many posts (in other threads) have rationalized that the Twins were penalized by drafting late and that the FO should be excused--so I looked up Tampa Bay's rotation (as they are often cited for solely being successful due to early draft position)--and here's what I found (yahoosports):

 

Chris Archer Cleveland Round 6 haven't yet found out he got to TB, but a 6th rounder

 

Jeremy Hellickson Round 4 2005

 

Roberto Hernandez signed as a 19,20 yr old out of DRep. by Cleveland

 

Matt Moore 8th round 2005

 

David Price 1st OA 2007

 

 

Some of these guys (Price and Hernandez) not signable by the Twins--but the other three could have been drafted and signed! Point--there is major league talent past the first 50. The claim of too late to draft well--is refuted. I could add that Tampa drafted very early for many years until the 2008 season--and not always successfully!

 

Archer was acquired by the Rays in the Garza trade (with the Cubs).

[nicksaviking]

Archer was acquired by the Rays in the Garza trade (with the Cubs).

 

Yeah, but Alex Cobb and his 4th round designation is another great example that was absent from his post.

[ThePuck]

Somehow this thread has moved to the draft. Many posts (in other threads) have rationalized that the Twins were penalized by drafting late and that the FO should be excused--so I looked up Tampa Bay's rotation (as they are often cited for solely being successful due to early draft position)--and here's what I found (yahoosports):

 

Chris Archer Cleveland Round 6 haven't yet found out he got to TB, but a 6th rounder

 

Jeremy Hellickson Round 4 2005

 

Roberto Hernandez signed as a 19,20 yr old out of DRep. by Cleveland

 

Matt Moore 8th round 2005

 

David Price 1st OA 2007

 

 

Some of these guys (Price and Hernandez) not signable by the Twins--but the other three could have been drafted and signed! Point--there is major league talent past the first 50. The claim of too late to draft well--is refuted. I could add that Tampa drafted very early for many years until the 2008 season--and not always successfully!

 

And their recently departed ace pitcher, James Shields, a 16th rounder. Got plenty out of him in pitching and trade.

[ThePuck]

Yeah, but Alex Cobb and his 4th round designation is another great example that was absent from his post.

 

How many first or second rounders start for the Rays?

[Kobs]

Plouffe looks to be a pretty decent player. Revere is a decent stopgap type player. Garza is obviously a good player. Perkins is very good.

 

I'm not sure what you can expect from a team that picked in the bottom half of the draft almost every year of the 2000s. If you're getting a productive player out of every draft, you're doing moderately well for yourself.

 

Smith caused his own demise. Add Matt Garza to those late 2000s Twins teams and it's an entirely different scenario.

 

Sorry pig, but this is bullplop. A team doing moderately well in the draft isn't consistently one of the five worst teams in baseball. The proof is on the field. The Twins haven't called up a real impact player since 2006. They got a good reliever and a poor man's Joe Crede out of five first round picks in one year, and we're supposed to call that good? Decent doesn't mean anything on the field, there isn't a discrete categorization here. A major league team needs to supply itself with good players to be good...middle of the order hitters or top of the rotation starters. They haven't called up a top of the rotation starter for the first time since 2006 and they haven't called up a middle of the lineup hitter since 2004.

[PseudoSABR]

A team doing moderately well in the draft isn't consistently one of the five worst teams in baseball. The proof is on the field.

Consistency? What's your time frame? Three years? Fifteen years? Does your assessment change when the the next group of minor leaguers appear?

 

The Twins poor product on the field has less to do with their ability to draft (winning for so long, hurt our prospects here) than it does to acquire major league talent through either free agency or trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

KC had how many years of high draft picks? The Pirates? Red Sox didn't even have a first rounder in 2004, somehow got Pedroia in the 2nd round. In fact lots of talent that year in the 2nd-6th round. Pedroia, Desmond, Pence, Vargas, Gallardo, Lind, Zobrist

 

There's talent everywhere in the draft, though the odds are indeed better if you're in the top 10, though plenty of busts there too.

 

I'd be careful with this line of reasoning. Prior to the recent CBA, big market teams had no problems grabbing guys who slid because they could throw money at them to get them to sign. Yankees and RedSox did this all the time.

[ThePuck]

I'd be careful with this line of reasoning. Prior to the recent CBA, big market teams had no problems grabbing guys who slid because they could throw money at them to get them to sign. Yankees and RedSox did this all the time.

 

Thanks, but I'm perfectly okay with my reasoning in that post. New CBA is nice though, no doubt.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry pig, but this is bullplop. A team doing moderately well in the draft isn't consistently one of the five worst teams in baseball. The proof is on the field. The Twins haven't called up a real impact player since 2006. They got a good reliever and a poor man's Joe Crede out of five first round picks in one year, and we're supposed to call that good? Decent doesn't mean anything on the field, there isn't a discrete categorization here. A major league team needs to supply itself with good players to be good...middle of the order hitters or top of the rotation starters. They haven't called up a top of the rotation starter for the first time since 2006 and they haven't called up a middle of the lineup hitter since 2004.

 

How different is this team if they didn't trade away the one very good starter they've drafted in the past decade? I'm not arguing that the drafts were good; they were anything but good... But as time passes and some of the guys we thought were washouts turn into productive every day players, I don't see how the drafts can be considered "OMG TERRIBLE". Yeah, they've screwed up pretty badly in some drafts, particularly when it comes to pitching (I mean, really... what does it take to get more than one decent starter in 5+ drafts?)... But even just keeping Garza would have made a huge difference through 2010, 11, and 12 (not to mention he probably means a playoff appearance in 08 as well).

 

From 2004-2008, the Twins drafted eight 1.0+ WAR players according to BB-Ref (and that's not including Plouffe, who currently sits at 0.8). The Cubs drafted four. The Astros drafted four.

 

I'm not saying the Twins drafts were good. The front office did not do a good enough job during those years. I'm only saying that they weren't complete busts.

[nicksaviking]

From 2004-2008, the Twins drafted eight 1.0+ WAR players according to BB-Ref (and that's not including Plouffe, who currently sits at 0.8). The Cubs drafted four. The Astros drafted four.

 

Yeah, but that's counting Yonder Alonso who had every intention of going to college. Three other 1.0+ WAR guys are Chris Parmelee, Anthony Swarzak and Aaron Hicks. I think that is more an indictment on WAR than anything.

 

Clearly the guys going toward the top of the draft are more likely to succeed, but the Twins inability to find many useful players past the 2nd round is terrible. The guys at the top are the obvious names everyone team has heard of. The guys going past round two are often players many teams have discovered by themselves and many other teams have not seen and may be completely unaware of. For a team that thinks they specialize in scouting, they have not been discovering their own talent very well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, but that's counting Yonder Alonso who had every intention of going to college. Three other 1.0+ WAR guys are Chris Parmelee, Anthony Swarzak and Aaron Hicks. I think that is more an indictment on WAR than anything.

 

Clearly the guys going toward the top of the draft are more likely to succeed, but the Twins inability to find many useful players past the 2nd round is terrible. The guys at the top are the obvious names everyone team has heard of. The guys going past round two are often players many teams have discovered by themselves and many other teams have not seen and may be completely unaware of. For a team that thinks they specialize in scouting, they have not been discovering their own talent very well.

 

I'm not sure why you don't believe Swarzak has been valuable... He posted a negative WAR in 2012, during which he was terrible. In 2011 and this season, he has been a useful player.

 

As for Parmelee and Hicks, they are works in progress. That WAR should rise in the case of Hicks and as for Parmelee... Future Uncertain. Try Again Later.

 

Agreed completely on the Twins ability to draft past the first round. Again, I'm not saying they did a good enough job with those drafts. They didn't.

[PseudoSABR]

The Twins were also drafting in the bottom third of the first round for nearly a decade...

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins were also drafting in the bottom third of the first round for nearly a decade...

 

 

hasn't stopped the Cardinals from getting good players the last few years.....

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins were also drafting in the bottom third of the first round for nearly a decade...

 

Quick, someone remind the Cardinals they aren't supposed to do well!

 

The only claim being made here is that the organization was suffering under Ryan's last few years. So if you want to agree that it was because they had low first round draft picks - fine. But you're trying to argue both - that they were doing just fine, but still building in the excuse of when they were picking.

 

For any number of reasons - the organization was suffering under Ryan his last few years, it's demonstrable by any number of measures. If that time-frame was Smith, we wouldn't even be having this debate...so let's all just agree it wasn't Ryan's finest hour. He's still a fine GM, just calling a spade a spade.

[ThePuck]

hasn't stopped the Cardinals from getting good players the last few years.....

 

That whole excuse for drafting futility is really tiresome and with all the examples of quality players drafted in later rounds that were bypassed for barely is and never-will-bes, it just doesn't hold water.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure why you don't believe Swarzak has been valuable... He posted a negative WAR in 2012, during which he was terrible. In 2011 and this season, he has been a useful player.

 

Swarzak probably has earned himself a bit of appreciation. As for Hicks and Parmelee, I think there is promise there, but WAR isn't supposed to grade on projection.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

The Twins were also drafting in the bottom third of the first round for nearly a decade...

I agree with this.

 

Most people with issues with the Twins draft is in the rounds after 1. However, I don't know if people realize how big of a crap shoot these picks really are. If you go back and look at the draft recaps that were posted both at Twins Daily and originally at Kevin Slowey was Framed, after round 1 the number of successful picks that result in MLB players are few and far between.

 

It is hard to criticize the FO for not picking a player that was passed on 247 times only to develop into a formidable ML player. There are many of these players who come out of nowhere but there are a lot more that teams are correct to pass on because they don't develop past organizational fillers.