Minnesota’s Three Luckiest Hitters in 2025

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Baseball is not supposed to be as easy as Byron Buxton made it look at times during the 2025 season. Even the best hitters in the world need a little help from batted ball luck, sequencing, and timing for numbers to truly pop. For the Minnesota Twins, several hitters posted surface-level results that outpaced what underlying metrics suggested should have happened. That does not mean those performances were flukes, but it does provide valuable context as we look ahead to 2026.

To frame the discussion, the league-wide average wOBA in 2025 sat at .313, while the average expected wOBA came in slightly higher at .315. wOBA is designed to measure overall offensive value by weighing the quality of contact alongside strikeouts and walks. Expected wOBA uses batted ball data to estimate what a hitter should have produced based on how hard and at what angles the ball was hit. When wOBA significantly outpaces expected wOBA, it often points toward overachievement that may be difficult to repeat.

Luke Keaschall
Keaschall posted a .363 wOBA in 2025, despite an expected mark of .323. That gap of roughly forty points stands out quickly. The underlying reasons are pretty straightforward when digging into his batted ball profile. Keaschall did not barrel the baseball often, finishing with a 5.2% Barrel rate. That is well below what you would typically expect from a hitter producing at that level.

Where Keaschall made his money was against offspeed pitches. He slugged .556 against them and actually outperformed his expected numbers by +.122 xwOBA compared to his wOBA in that pitch bucket. That suggests a combination of good pitch recognition and favorable outcomes on balls that weren't always crushed.

Looking ahead to 2026, some offensive pullback feels likely. Still, Keaschall does not need to repeat a near .360 wOBA to be valuable. If he tightens up the quality of contact even marginally, he can remain a productive bat who helps the lineup reach the next level.

Alan Roden
Roden is an interesting case because the majority of his at-bats came in Toronto. Acquired as part of the Louis Varland trade, Roden appeared in just 12 games for the Twins. For the season, he finished with a .249 wOBA, compared to an expected mark of .225, a gap of about 24 points.

Roden struggled to hit the ball with authority, posting a 2.0% Barrel rate. Much of his contact was on the softer side, which generally caps offensive upside. However, his biggest separation between results and expectations came against breaking pitches. That is where he hit both of his home runs and most of his extra-base hits, outperforming his expected numbers by +.089 in that area.

The 2026 outlook is more optimistic than the Twins sample alone would suggest. Roden profiles nicely as a fourth outfielder and has the defensive ability to back up Buxton in center field. There is also real offensive upside here, as evidenced by his 151 wRC+ at Triple-A last season. If that production translates even partially, Roden could carve out a meaningful role.

Byron Buxton
Buxton’s 2025 season featured a .367 wOBA and a .348 expected mark, a difference of just under twenty points. While smaller than the other gaps on this list, it still qualifies as overachievement given how high the baseline already is.

The reasons are primarily tied to Buxton doing Buxton things. He punishes fastballs, producing a wOBA that was 32 points higher than his expected output against them. He also continues to hit the ball extremely hard, posting a 53.8% Hard Hit rate that places him among the elite in baseball. His expected slugging percentage has topped .500 in each of the last two seasons, which helps explain why his offensive floor is so high.

Replicating his 2025 totals will not be easy. Some dip in production is a reasonable expectation. However, the Twins' bigger goal is availability. If Buxton can play more than 100 games for a third straight season, something he has yet to do in his career, even a slightly reduced offensive line would be a massive boost to the roster.

Overachieving seasons are not inherently bad things. They often represent players maximizing their strengths and benefiting from favorable conditions along the way. For the Twins, understanding where production outpaced expectations helps set realistic goals for 2026. Keaschall, Roden, and Buxton each bring different skill sets and different risk profiles, but all three showed how impactful things can be when results break the right way.

Which of these hitters do you think is most likely to beat the projections again in 2026, and who worries you the most when it comes to regression? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

If I were a betting man, all 3 of these players are still on the team on June 1, and none of the 3 “unluckiest” are. I’d even go further to guess that at least 1 if not 2 of the “unluckiest” don’t make it past opening day.

Willing to be wrong

[hlsballer318]

Hopefully we can sustain some Buck Luck

[mnfireman]

According to your comparison model, Cal Raleigh was also "lucky" in 2025, as he had a difference of .023 in those 2 categories

Meanwhile, Juan Soto would have to one of the unluckiest hitters in MLB as he had a difference of -.037 in those 2 categories.

I read FanGraphs explanation of wOBA and I can understand the basic principal of valuing each hit or time reaching base differently based on run creation , but with no one on base, a BB, HBP or 1B is the exact same thing. And removing IBB makes no sense because the batter still reaches base but, is punished for it by this formula, I understand that this formula attempts to define offensive value in relation to run creation, but isn't the IBB the ultimate measure of offensive value, even though opposing teams use it to try and prevent runs (though Bonds was IBB with the bases loaded on several occasions)?

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If I were a betting man, all 3 of these players are still on the team on June 1, and none of the 3 “unluckiest” are. I’d even go further to guess that at least 1 if not 2 of the “unluckiest” don’t make it past opening day.

Willing to be wrong

The unluckiest still on the roster are Julien (-.043), Clemens (-.020), and Outman (-.019). Martin was -.009, I don't know if that is considered bad luck or not.

[old nurse]

Keaschall and Buxton have speed. That will get a batter more hits and an extra base upon occasion. Roden is also a bit speedier than average.  The luck is in their legs 

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, hlsballer318 said:

Hopefully we can sustain some Buck Luck

Let's hope they continue to have him leading off.

[theBOMisthebomb]

As my dad said so many times during my youthful years, "I'd rather be lucky than good." 

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

The unluckiest still on the roster are Julien (-.043), Clemens (-.020), and Outman (-.019). Martin was -.009, I don't know if that is considered bad luck or not.

How do all of them fit though? Like where is Julien going to play other than dh?

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

How do all of them fit though? Like where is Julien going to play other than dh?

Maybe Fargo needs a no-hit, no-field 1B/2B/DH type (Julien)...

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Maybe Fargo needs a no-hit, no-field 1B/2B/type (Julien)...

Seriously though; Larnach won’t be back. How the bench will look is going to be interesting to say the least. I’m curious if Wallner is even in the long term plans. Lots of moves to still be made, I’d imagine

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Seriously though; Larnach won’t be back. How the bench will look is going to be interesting to say the least. I’m curious if Wallner is even in the long term plans. Lots of moves to still be made, I’d imagine

Other than the obvious, $$$, I'd would much rather have Larnach's bat in the line up over Julien or Gasper. All 3 are defensively challenged, just at different positions.

Roden would be a direct replacement for Larnach, but Larnach's worst offensive season up to and including his age 26 season was considerably better than what Roden showed this season, though both players have had injury issues.

Like you stated, lots of off-season left and possible moves to be made. 

[h2oface]

Alan Roden:

”For the season, he finished with a .249 wOBA, compared to an expected mark of .225, a gap of about 24 points.”

Lucky? Horrible however you look at it. I would hate to see him regress to average or unlucky, when his lucky .249 wOBA is so bad anyway. 

[jorgenswest]

Speed is a component of xwOBA. In the list of players who outperformed their wOBA according to their contact you see players like Naylor and Raleigh that don’t have elite speed out of the batter’s box. You will see some faster guys in the list of players that underperformed. Both his xwOBA and wOBA were strong and that is encouraging for next year. Buxton’s difference of 19 is among the larger among starters but not in the top 10 of that list and maybe something that comes with that elite end of really solid contact.

Keaschall is a different story. His xwOBA was significantly lower than his wOBA. He needs an above average at bat to mix in with his below average glove at 2B or fit on a corner. I think he will improve his contact numbers as he returns to health. He was lucky last year with his slash stats but can trade better health and experience for that luck and still perform above league average.

Roden didn’t play enough or with consistency for any of these numbers to be meaningful.

[NJM]

I really hope Roden can show why he belongs next year. 

[mluebker]

Maybe Buxton was just good, not lucky. Maybe whoever developed his expected numbers for 2025 was just wrong.
 

And yeah, I’ll admit I was one of those guys who didn’t think Buxton was ever going to have a season like that again. But that’s what’s great about having real ballplayers out there instead of hypothetical constructs from the spreadsheets that try to define them—they can surprise you like that.

[EGFTShaw]

On 1/4/2026 at 4:09 PM, old nurse said:

Keaschall and Buxton have speed. That will get a batter more hits and an extra base upon occasion. Roden is also a bit speedier than average.  The luck is in their legs 

When BuxTruck hit for the cycle 

His single was...

Yep, and infield single.

Speed does matter at times.