Rule 5 Roster Math: Six Twins Prospects Too Valuable to Lose and Six At-Risk Prospects

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if they need to protect Culpepper. He isn’t ready and I don’t think he can be easily stashed in a bullpen. He didn’t get swing and miss in AA and all that contact is going to make it difficult for him to eat innings or come in with runners on base. He has the pitch mix of a starter but really needs more time. I don’t think he can stick with a team through the season. At first I thought maybe he is similar to Tyler Wells but Wells struck out 30.7% in AA while Culpepper struck out 19.5% last year. I wonder if a pitcher has been taken and kept in rule 5 with a similarly low strike out rate relative to the his league. He was 70th of 93 Texas League pitchers in strike out rate among pitchers with more than 50 innings.

[The Mad King]

Nice article Seth. Thanks for keeping us informed.

[FlyingFinn]

On 11/14/2025 at 8:51 PM, jorgenswest said:

I wonder if they need to protect Culpepper. He isn’t ready and I don’t think he can be easily stashed in a bullpen.

Tyler Wells was in Class A ball and got picked in the Rule 5 draft by Baltimore and is still on their team. Poor teams love to stash pitchers in that 13th pitching spot, as long as they are in a rebuilding year. 

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Tyler Wells was in Class A ball and got picked in the Rule 5 draft by Baltimore and is still on their team. Poor teams love to stash pitchers in that 13th pitching spot, as long as they are in a rebuilding year. 

Did you read the rest of what I wrote?

I specifically compared the performance of Wells to Culpepper. Their ability to miss bats and strike out batters in AA is very different. It really seems odd that you left that out. Tyler Wells wasn’t a stash. He was ready to pitch in a major league bullpen and was successful as a rookie and had an ERA below league average.

If the Twins believe that Culpepper is ready and capable of that performance in spite of his inability to miss bats in AA they should put him on the 40. 

[Riverbrian]

On 11/11/2025 at 12:41 PM, chpettit19 said:

Ah, yes, the Rule 5 draft. The most freaked out over for no reason part of the offseason. The Twins aren't losing any players to the Rule 5 draft. Kyler Fedko was the 32nd best hitter in AAA between 24 and 26 years old with at least 100 PAs. Every team has one of him. 10-15 guys get taken in the Rule 5 and there's rarely ever more than 3 or 4 that actually stick with the selecting team. 

Do the exercise in reverse. If you're looking at the Twins bad MLB roster and thinking of who they should be grabbing in the Rule 5, are you hoping for Kyler Fedko or Kala'i Rosario? I'm certainly not. Just look at who people were worried about losing last year. Ricardo Olivar was on the list then, too. So was Rosario. Neither of them made it past the level they were at (AA) when people were worried about them in 2024. MacLeod also on that list. Rubel Cespedes, Will Holland, and Noah Cardenas also made Nick's article. 

Patrick Winkel, Jovani Moran, and Jaylen Nowlin were other names brought up in the comments section that people feared may get taken.

Raya and Adams were protected. Anybody thrilled with them saving those 2 at this point? Possibly serviceable relievers, but certainly not anybody folks around here are overly excited about. Shoot, Adams' name is being listed as a guy to waive to protect the next Adams.

The level of prospect we're talking about is simply not worth worrying about. Especially on the position player side. But we'll continue to do it every year.

Personally... I'm not that concerned about who we lose.

I'm concerned about who we add. That speaks the loudest. It's the starting point of the 40 man roster taking shape and where it goes from here. 

[jorgenswest]

Last year we added Travis Adams and we added a rule 5. We eventually let go of Ronny Henriquez when we needed a roster spots and neither Adams or the rule 5 could be safely removed. It doesn’t seem likely that Adams would have survived the year on another roster. We made a decision on Henriquez after 31 innings.

If I look back I was probably OK with letting him go given the options at the time but I was not in favor of the rule 5 decision or the Adams decision. Those 40 man spots are valuable.

[Chembry]

[mrguy]

Hendry Mendez was the only one that confused me, because a AA outfielder prospect in an org with so much outfield depth(and a lot of them knocking on MLB already) already seems like a spot not really that risky to need to protect even if he had a good year and could likely be AAA next year, but maybe this is more a precautionary thing to make sure the Phillies don't try and immediately take him back so the Twins end up with nothing in the Bader trade? Everyone else on that list makes sense though

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, mrguy said:

Hendry Mendez was the only one that confused me, because a AA outfielder prospect in an org with so much outfield depth(and a lot of them knocking on MLB already) already seems like a spot not really that risky to need to protect even if he had a good year and could likely be AAA next year, but maybe this is more a precautionary thing to make sure the Phillies don't try and immediately take him back so the Twins end up with nothing in the Bader trade? Everyone else on that list makes sense though

There was talk he could start at first next year.... But went home early from the AFL for personal reasons. So we didn't learn much.

[Chembry]

8 minutes ago, mrguy said:

Hendry Mendez was the only one that confused me, because a AA outfielder prospect in an org with so much outfield depth(and a lot of them knocking on MLB already) already seems like a spot not really that risky to need to protect even if he had a good year and could likely be AAA next year, but maybe this is more a precautionary thing to make sure the Phillies don't try and immediately take him back so the Twins end up with nothing in the Bader trade? Everyone else on that list makes sense though

I think it was a better to be safe than sorry situation.  They just traded for him and he has hit at every level so far.  Would be a stretch for any club to pick him, but better to be safe.

[mrguy]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There was talk he could start at first next year.... But went home early from the AFL for personal reasons. So we didn't learn much.

In general, this seems to be a discussion to be had with a lot of the clogged up outfield pipeline, but I do wonder what this spells for some of the higher up options that are also going to be at risk? With someone like Kyler Fedko who is both Rule 5 eligible and more "MLB ready" I guess in an offseason market that is specifically looking for outfield options. Are they being seen as potential trade chips? Or do they simply have more confidence they wouldn't be touched than the guy they got through trades?

[FlyingFinn]

28 minutes ago, mrguy said:

Kyler Fedko who is both Rule 5 eligible and more "MLB ready"

Teams won't take him because of his age. Others have posted how few hitters are selected in the Rule 5 draft and I am very confident Fedko won't be one of them.

I agree with you on Mendez. But the Twins really like him and they do have room on the 40 man roster. They played him at 1B some but he wasn't playing 1B at all in the short time he was in the AFL.

[ashbury]

So if I'm reading it right, 5 of 6 of Seth's list were added.  Klein substitutes in for Culpepper.  Must be the injury concern for the latter.

The 40-man is full, with 19 pitchers and 21 batters.  I expect that ratio to be reversed before opening day.

Do they have time to DFA someone to make room for a Rule-5 pick, or is this locked in now through the Winter Meetings?

[lecroy24fan]

24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Do they have time to DFA someone to make room for a Rule-5 pick, or is this locked in now through the Winter Meetings?

Since teams are allowed to sign free agents, they absolutely can DFA players, but not any of the players added to the 40 man to keep them from the rule 5 draft.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

Since teams are allowed to sign free agents, they absolutely can DFA players, but not any of the players added to the 40 man to keep them from the rule 5 draft.

Yeah, that's the part I was remembering.  Once added, they have to stay there until Spring Training, or maybe longer.  Anyway, not relevant to making room for a pick in December.  Which... had to be the case, since trades could occur that might free up a spot - or, as you say, they could need to make room for another acquisition.

[lecroy24fan]

Okay yes they can DFA a player prior to the draft to have a spot open. They cannot make the pick then DFA someone.