Article: Trade Rumors Breakdown: The Market Ceiling

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2027-Trade-Rumors-Breakdown-The-Market-Ceiling

[tjsyam921]

If the Twins could get a short stop that can catch the ball AND hit it and a starting pitching candidate I would say make the trade. If TR could pull off a Aj type trade it would be worth it. 2-3 years from now Perkins most likely won't be as good as he is now when we are contenders.

[jorgenswest]

The Yankees have shown they value framing pitches more than any other organization. They have shown it with all of their catching decisions since Girardi took over. Jose Molina credits Girardi and the Yankees for helping him refine this skill.

 

Unless they have decided that they have been wrong about the importance of managing the strike zone, they are not going to seek Doumit in a trade. They can improve their offense in other spots and without impacting their pitching staff.

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others

[beckmt]

Interesting note, but a closer can really effect a team more than a starter. Twins should expect at least 1 major talent for moving Perkins, but he is under club control for another 3 years. That also has an effect on price. Still would like to see an AJ type trade, but do not expect it.

[Old Twins Cap]

Don't think the Yankees catcher is named Chris Davis. Stewart much more likely. If it was Davis, that would be quite something, with all the home runs and RBIs, I think the Yankees would be set.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd imagine Garza and Perkins would fetch a similar haul. I'd certainly trade Perkins for those guys. I'm somewhat curious what Baltimore was supposedly willing to send over for Pelf. I highly doubt it was either of them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Thinking about this a bit more... What if the Twins offered Pelfrey to Baltimore plus some of their international bonus money... Does anyone think that this would net one of those two prospects? That might not be a bad way to bring in a higher ceiling guy closer to the show... Just speculating a bit, but it fills a need and gives the other team an immediate way to add another high ceiling guy into their system.

[DaveW]

I don't like the idea of the twins giving away ANY international money. They have been doing pretty damn good in the international market.

 

The orioles or anyone else isn't going to give up anything more than a third tier prospect for pelfrey (unless he turns some huge corner)

 

If Pelf can come back somewhat "strong" id almost prefer the twins keep him around and try to sign him to a team friendly deal for 2014 (maybe a 2 year deal) this team needs arms.

[Rick Blaine]

If Pelf can come back somewhat "strong" id almost prefer the twins keep him around and try to sign him to a team friendly deal for 2014 (maybe a 2 year deal) this team needs arms.

 

Pelfrey signed a one year contract for a reason--- so he can sign a "pelfrey friendly deal" for 2014. There is no way he comes back to Minnesota next year. If he isn't traded before the deadline-- he will find someone who will offer more than the Twins will this winter. He is already improving.

[DaveW]

Pelfrey signed a one year contract for a reason--- so he can sign a "pelfrey friendly deal" for 2014. There is no way he comes back to Minnesota next year. If he isn't traded before the deadline-- he will find someone who will offer more than the Twins will this winter. He is already improving.

He wanted to come to Minnesota as he has family in the area, why wouldn't he want to stick around? Also, lets not pretend he is going to command 100 million....the Twins can afford what he will cost... I doubt he gets anything more than 2 years and 6-8 mil a year from ANYONE

[Brock Beauchamp]

He wanted to come to Minnesota as he has family in the area, why wouldn't he want to stick around? Also, lets not pretend he is going to command 100 million....the Twins can afford what he will cost... I doubt he gets anything more than 2 years and 6-8 mil a year from ANYONE

 

On top of that, the Twins rarely have problems retaining players. It seems that while it may be tricky to get them here in the first place, once a player is here, they seem to like the area and team and stick around if offered market value (Pavano, Doumit, etc.).

[Forever34]

I hope the FO dangles Perkins but only at a king's ransom. Given his age, ability, and great contract there is no reason he shouldn't be part of the rebuilding process and still there when it is done.

 

Wonder if packaging players together would net better prospects. For instance sending Morneau, Doumit, plus a reliever or someone to the Yankees in exchange for one of their better prospects.

[Rick Blaine]

The Twins won't pay Pelfrey $ 6-8 million and isn't he a Boras client? I think Scott Baker had the same idea but its not working out for him. Jack Morris has relatives in the area and in 1991 he signed a one year contract with the Twins with no intention of returning in 1992. World Series hero or not. It happens.

[Rick Blaine]

On top of that, the Twins rarely have problems retaining players. It seems that while it may be tricky to get them here in the first place, once a player is here, they seem to like the area and team and stick around if offered market value (Pavano, Doumit, etc.).

 

Not to argue, just a comment on retaining players-- Hunter, Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Cuddyer and Kubel all left pretty much as soon as they could.

 

If Pelfrey strings a few more good starts together he likely will be a candidate to be traded later this month.

[Red Holstein]

I think Mauer would wave his no-trade clause to Boston. What kind of offer would the Redsox have to make? It's an intriguing thought. They could patch up a few holes by trading Mauer, and add those players to the incoming group of Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, etc.

 

Mauer's prime years are being wasted. Him and Fenway are the perfect match. Ryan should make the phone call, and do it if he can get a king's ransom.

[old nurse]

Not to argue, just a comment on retaining players-- Hunter, Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Cuddyer and Kubel all left pretty much as soon as they could.

 

If Pelfrey strings a few more good starts together he likely will be a candidate to be traded later this month.

Hunter was here for 9 years, hardly leaving as soon as he could. Most of the others were here longer than the minimum 6 years. Crain wanted to close, the Twins did not use him in that role with Nathan's injury. He did not win the job in Chicago either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd imagine Garza and Perkins would fetch a similar haul. I'd certainly trade Perkins for those guys. I'm somewhat curious what Baltimore was supposedly willing to send over for Pelf. I highly doubt it was either of them.

 

Perkins is way more valuable than Garza. Perkins is locked up for several years at a ridiculously cheap rate and Garza hits free agency in four months.

 

Perkins is attractive to the mid-market teams of MLB while none of them can afford to give up a prospect haul for a guy who will demand a 5-6 year deal worth $80m+ after the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not to argue, just a comment on retaining players-- Hunter, Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Cuddyer and Kubel all left pretty much as soon as they could.

 

If Pelfrey strings a few more good starts together he likely will be a candidate to be traded later this month.

 

Hunter is the only guy on that list that the Twins made even a cursory attempt to keep.

[jay]

Hunter is the only guy on that list that the Twins made even a cursory attempt to keep.

 

My impression was they did with Cuddy and Nathan also, but as with Hunter, pastures were much greener elsewhere.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My impression was they did with Cuddy and Nathan also, but as with Hunter, pastures were much greener elsewhere.

 

Nathan, maybe... But the Twins signed Willingham the day before Cuddyer went to the Rockies. They couldn't have been too interested in retaining ol' Dimples.

[DaveW]

Nathan, maybe... But the Twins signed Willingham the day before Cuddyer went to the Rockies. They couldn't have been too interested in retaining ol' Dimples.

 

Cuddyer was out of their price range, they got Willingham and Doumit for less than Cuddyer.

[beckmt]

Most clubs now, even the Yankees are very reluctant to give up their higher level, close to major league ready prospects. That is why Terry Ryan and his scouts have done well at identifying undervalued prospects at the A level and getting them to the Twins. Perkins or Mauer if he would waive his no trade would have to bring a huge ransom back to the Twins to make a deal. In Perkins case he could be making a difference between making the playoffs and going home at the end of the regular season. I would expect a prospect in the clubs top 10, probably between 6 and 8 and a couple of lower 15 - 30 prospects at least(I may be high). Mauer would need even more. Most clubs would not be willing to pay the price. That is why you see the majority of the deals for lower end prospects are salary dumps more than baseball trades. That is what the majority of the contenders want and why most of the deals go down in the last week of July.

[jay]

Cuddyer was out of their price range, they got Willingham and Doumit for less than Cuddyer.

 

Right. I think once they heard what kind of offers he was getting, they went ahead with Hammer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In Perkins case he could be making a difference between making the playoffs and going home at the end of the regular season. I would expect a prospect in the clubs top 10, probably between 6 and 8 and a couple of lower 15 - 30 prospects at least(I may be high).

 

You're waaaaaaaayyy too low on Perkins.

 

In most farm systems, Perkins would command the #1 prospect and maybe the #5 prospect (assuming that #1 prospect isn't in the top 15 of all MLB prospects). He's a dominant reliever locked up for 3 1/2 more seasons at a just-above-arbitration price.

 

Prospects are nice but they're just that, prospects. Perkins is a dominant MLB pitcher closing games and under contract for several seasons.

[jay]

You're waaaaaaaayyy too low on Perkins.

 

In most farm systems, Perkins would command the #1 prospect and maybe the #5 prospect (assuming that #1 prospect isn't in the top 15 of all MLB prospects). He's a dominant reliever locked up for 3 1/2 more seasons at a just-above-arbitration price.

 

Prospects are nice but they're just that, prospects. Perkins is a dominant MLB pitcher closing games and under contract for several seasons.

 

I'd have to agree. The guys that have been moved recently are FAs at the end of the year, so the return is meh. Perk provides a crap-ton of surplus value over multiple seasons... which is exactly why the Twins shouldn't (and, I think, won't) trade him.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'd have to agree. The guys that have been moved recently are FAs at the end of the year, so the return is meh. Perk provides a crap-ton of surplus value over multiple seasons... which is exactly why the Twins shouldn't (and, I think, won't) trade him.

Jay, respectfully disagree. I hate to see a Gopher leave, but IMO the only thing that can stop the parade is the lack of starting pitching. If we can get the haul you and Brock believe is possible, I feel we should take it.