Minnesota Twins Finally Have a High-Upside East-to-West Pitching Prospect in Riley Quick

[Cody Schoenmann]

Last Sunday night, the Minnesota Twins (led by Vice President of Amateur Scouting Sean Johnson) selected Alabama Crimson Tide starting pitcher Riley Quick with the 36th selection in the first Competitive Balance Round. In recent drafts, Johnson has possessed a similar affliction for drafting amateur arms in this area, evidenced by the club selecting right-handed high school arm Charlee Soto 34th overall in 2023 and fellow former Alabama pitcher Connor Prielipp 48th overall in 2022.

Ranked 32nd on Jamie Cameron's MLB mock draft consensus board, Quick was selected in the range draft pundits predicted him to be. Yet, despite a reasonable selection from a draft slot perspective for Minnesota, he interestingly bucks a trend in what type of pitching arsenal Johnson and club decision-makers tend to prefer when assessing which young arms to select. To revisit Minnesota's most recent drafts, the club's highest-drafted amateur arms from the previous three drafts were Dasan Hill (69th overall in 2024), Soto, and Prielipp.

Interestingly, all three young arms sport the same arsenal, relying on their fastballs, sliders, and changeups as their primary pitches. Quick's primary three pitches are also his fastball, slider, and changeup. Yet, the type of primary fastballs he throws differentiates him from Hill, Soto, and Prielipp. Instead of relying on a four-seam fastball with plus vertical movement, Quick utilizes a sinker and cutter, two fastball variations that have been uncommon amongst amateur arms selected by Minnesota in recent drafts.  

Now, selecting young pitchers who throw high-velocity fastballs with plus Induced Vertical Break (IVB) is a sound process. Minnesota's three best starting pitchers (Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober) all possess fastballs with plus IVB. Also, the best starting pitchers in baseball (Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler) similarly possess plus IVB on their four-seam fastballs. The best pitchers on the Twins and the sport itself rely on pounding their plus fastballs high in the zone, which is an exceptionally sound approach. Yet, there is also another, less common path to being a plus starting pitcher, which is what Quick could bring to Minnesota.

Over the past five seasons, some of the most effective east-to-west starting pitchers who rely on their sinker and cutter as their primary fastball shapes include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Yu Darvish, amongst others. Despite being unconventional, these three pitchers and others who rely on sinkers and cutters have been incredibly effective. Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award as a Milwaukee Brewer in 2021, Darvish is a multi-time All-Star who finished second in NL Cy Young Award as a Chicago Cub in 2020, and Fried is presently one of the favorites for the 2025 AL Cy Young Award in his first season as a New York Yankee.

Now, I am not here to predict Quick will have a career like Burnes, Fried, or Darvish. What I am saying, however, is that there is proof of concept of Quick's arsenal working in the majors. Given the organization's willingness to push college arms quickly through its minor league system in recent seasons (David Festa and Zebby Matthews), there is reason to believe the 21-year-old could be in the high minors early next season and make his major league debut just one season after being drafted.

To go into further depth on Quick's pitch arsenal, here are the IVB and Horizontal Break (HB) profiles of his five-pitch mix, illustrated by the previously cited Cameron below:

Quick used his cutter sparingly. However, there is meaningful data on the pitch, shown below:

• 93.1 MPH, 8.0 IVB, 2.5 HB, 5.7 ft release height, 28% Whiff, 9% usage rate

He doesn't rely on his cutter as often as his sinker, slider, and changeup. Yet, given the recent shift in clubs inserting differing fastball variations into starting pitchers' arsenals for the sake of expanding their pitch mix, even if those pitches aren't necessarily plus pitches (evidenced by Ryan adding a sinker to his arsenal to use against right-handed hitters this season), there is reason to believe Minnesota's pitching development program will encourage Quick to continue tinkering with his cutter and using it in-game. Assuming that's the case, he could (no pun intended) quickly become Minnesota's first highly-regarded east-to-west starting pitcher since Johnson became Minnesota's Vice President of Amateur Scouting in 2022.

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[DocBauer]

The more things change, the more older approaches come back. The high FB has become all the rage, and isn't going away. But as hitters adjust, and analysis provides more data, the 2 seamer is suddenly in vogue again.

The key is getting hitters out. We often focus so much on pure velocity...which is great...but high heat that doesn't move creates problems. Whether or not your rotation has a high quality LH SP or not, what works best is a "mix" of rotation arms that provide different looks. Festa, for example, has a high velocity 4 seamer and a pair of quality secondary offerings. But his FB has been his worst pitch overall. Now he's mixing in a 2 seamer, which should only make his 4 seamer that much more affective going forward.

This was a mediocre draft that leaned toward SS, especially on the prep side, and college arms. And I think the scouting department did a great job of embracing that and going for talented, upside college arms this draft.

Honestly, while Quick had a solid season, he was coming back from TJ surgery. If was to come out in 2026, he probably doesn't even reach the Twins at pick #16. 

I don't want to derail the OP, but they also grabbed an intriguing power arm in Ellwanger in the 3rd, and the 6' 11" Reitz in the 4th round that offers tremendous promise if they can keep his mechanics in check, and 19yo 5th rounder Barr who might be as good or better a prospect than anyone else. A really nice collection of high upside college arms. 

[Fatbat]

Its sure would be cool to develop a SP 1/2 every year so we always have a dominant rotation! 

[LyleCole]

Strange reading this right after reading an article about Kyle Gibson retiring from baseball. 

Kyle was drafted in 2009.  Seems like a long time ago.

One career ends, another begins.

[jmlease1]

I'm not all that surprised that the Twins went with a pitcher with a different arsenal than what's they've acquired recently. We've seen them add different pitches to a player's mix as they've developed before, including after they've reached MLB, and they've gone for outliers before (i.e., Cory Lewis and his knuckleball). I would argue that the clearest pattern the Twins have in drafting is to go for value wherever they're picking and that they try not to be too dogmatic in only picking certain types of player. When we see "shifts" in who they're drafting I would argue it's more about where they see the best value in that particular draft.

Riley Quick is an interesting pick with a lot of upside and the potential to progress quickly. While I don't think the Twins seek out pitchers coming off a serious arm injury, they're not afraid of it either and will go there when they see a high-value opportunity, and I think that's how they viewed Quick. Should be worth checking out.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

We have 4 college arms that have as much potential or more than - Preilipp, Soto, Hill.  Had we ended up with just  Quick and Barr I think most would have been happy.  You added in Ellwanger and Reitz.  It really increases the odds 1 or multiple of the 4 will reach their ceilings.  

I didn't mention it earlier,  but I do think some teams have figured out the Twins tendencies and sniped some of their better pitching prospects they have found in the later rounds which may be why they took more stabs earlier .  Either that or 2022 could become a massive outlier, which it likely was already go look at that draft crazy (Lee MLB, Matthews MLB - Priellip, Morris, Culpepper, Lewis,  Cossetti, Baez, Ortega, Jones, Shuffied - thats just a stupid amount of talent in 1 draft).  But you had quite a few of us, who thought Matthews, Lewis and Culpepper were interesting arms.  It may be why the Twins switched a bit and seemed to take their pitching stabs earlier in the draft.  Especially with a system that seems to be pretty strong on hitting prospects.  

[Jamie Cameron]

Good s*** Cody, enjoyed it.