How Kaelen Culpepper Has Answered His Draft Day Question Marks

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Kaelen Culpepper)

When the Twins selected Kaelen Culpepper with the 21st overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, there were a few raised eyebrows. Sure, Culpepper had plenty of tools, but concerns about plate discipline and defensive projection gave some evaluators pause. Less than a year later, Culpepper is not only putting those concerns to rest, he’s making evaluators look like they undersold him.

Now firmly entrenched in Double-A Wichita and facing older, more experienced competition, Culpepper has surged into top-100 prospect territory. His all-around game is showing up in the box score and answering every pre-draft question thrown his way.

Chasing Down the Concerns

One of the most commonly cited red flags at the time of the draft came from The Athletic’s Keith Law, who wrote, “I know some teams had him in the second round because his chase rate was high, albeit not extremely so.” That concern was fair based on his collegiate track record, but Culpepper has responded in a big way.

In his first full professional season, Culpepper has trimmed his chase rate significantly, especially against right-handed pitching. His strikeout rate currently sits under 16% for the season, and the right-handed hitter has a 16.25 K% against righties. He’s begun to show a mature ability to lay off pitches just outside the zone, something that was seen as a “maybe someday” skill on draft night and is already a present tool.

Even FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, who was skeptical on draft day, has had to take another look. “I have mixed-positive feeling about the Twins' first day because I’m lukewarm on Kaelen Culpepper due to his chase tendencies,” Longenhagen said after the pick. But Culpepper has flipped that narrative. His walk rate is hovering around 11% during the 2025 campaign, giving him a nearly even K/BB ratio. This is no small feat for a 21-year-old adjusting to professional spin and facing older pitchers over 78% of the time. 

The Shortstop Debate? Maybe It's Over

Defensively, there was another looming question: Could Culpepper stay at shortstop, or was a move to third inevitable? ESPN summed it up nicely: “Ultimately, his pro ceiling will likely be decided by whether he can stick at shortstop or if he moves to third base on his way to the majors.”

A year later, most evaluators are in agreement that he can stick.

Culpepper has shown above-average range, clean footwork, and a plus arm at short. His internal clock is improving, and he’s making throws from deep in the hole that only true shortstops can pull off. The Twins have continued to give him regular reps at the position with only a handful of appearances at second base. Scouts now project him to remain there long-term unless the major-league roster demands a positional shift.

That strong arm, once merely a bullet point in the scouting report, is now a calling card. In pre-draft evaluations, he was seen on the fringe between shortstop and third base. Now, he has the potential to be an impact defender as a big-league shortstop. He’s turned potential into production, and if anything, he’s separated himself from many of the other middle infielders in his draft class by staying up the middle.

Crushing the Offspeed Test

CBS Sports questioned whether Culpepper could handle spin, writing, “Can shortstop Kaelen Culpepper improve his breaking ball recognition?” It’s a valid question for any young hitter, especially one whose college profile leaned more on twitchy athleticism than polish at the plate.

But once again, Culpepper’s adjustments have been impressive. Since his promotion to Double-A, he's actually improved his slugging percentage against offspeed and breaking pitches, showing better pitch tracking and timing. Over his last 10 games (49 PA), he is slashing .432/.490/.523 (1.013) with two extra-base hits and as many walks (5) as strikeouts (5).  He’s not just laying off the tough stuff, because he’s doing damage when pitchers hang them.

Fast Track to Target Field?

What’s most exciting is just how quickly Culpepper has acclimated to professional ball. He’s one of only a handful of 2024 draftees already playing at Double-A, and he hasn’t missed a beat. The jump from college to pro ball is steep. The jump from there to Double-A is a leap. Culpepper made both without stumbling.

It’s rare for a late first-round pick to push into top-100 territory so quickly, but Culpepper has earned it. His combination of steady defense, improved plate discipline, and surprising offensive production against older pitchers has made him one of the most exciting infield prospects in the system.

The draft-day doubts have all been addressed quickly. The Twins believed in Culpepper’s upside when they took him at 21, and in less than 12 months, they may have already found the player who could be their shortstop of the future. If the trajectory holds, Culpepper could be pushing his way to Minneapolis by mid-2026.

And when he gets there, don’t be surprised if the same evaluators who doubted the pick are suddenly talking about how obvious it was all along.

Which doubt does Culpepper still need to answer? When will he debut with the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion on one of the organization's most exciting prospects. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

The transition to playing every day is daunting and tiring for many players in their first full season in professional baseball. Culpepper seems like the rare guy who takes to constant play, finding time to adjust and learn continually. I have watched quite a few Wichita games via milb.com and have been very impressed by how quickly Kaelen has adjusted in all facets of the game. Will the Twins push him to AAA in August?

[DasBat]

I really disliked the pick last year.  He has completely proved me wrong.  Probably why I’m not a scout

[Dman]

Great writeup!! Thank you!!  He was ranked in the 30's with some thinking he would be a supplemental pick.  When they made the pick my first thought was it must be an under slot deal to save money, but that was not the case. At the time I felt that if he could stay at short it was a decent pick, but it did feel risky given the writeups. 

I never even day dreamed he would be this good this fast and fulfill most of his potential this early.  Twins got that one right and it is nice to have a legit shortstop in the system and in the top 100.

[Guest]

And the Twins believe so much that Culpepper can stick at SS that they drafted a good-field-average-hit SS in today's first round....

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

And the Twins believe so much that Culpepper can stick at SS that they drafted a good-field-average-hit SS in today's first round....

I wouldn't read to far into it. 66 shortstops were taken in the first round.

[twinstalker]

There are still a lot of directions this could go, but I hold a ton more hope for him now than I did for him on draft day 2024.  There are some indicators I hold in my bag that are blinking green at this point.  His combo of walk rate (not too low, not too high) and strikeout rate are perfect (see Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee) and indicate he'll be a major leaguer and probably be a tough out.

A couple of weeks ago, after he had 9 games at AA, I mentioned that if he reduced his 20% AA K rate to 16% by the end of the AA season, he would show himself to be a major leaguer.   After seven more games, he's already at 15.6% in 16 AA games.  Keaschall, while eight months younger at the time, had a K rate of 19.1% at AA, Lee was both the same age and had the same K rate at AA.

The interesting part right now in the Culpepper vs Lee comparison is that Culpepper has a better slash, likely due in part to SSS plus other sources of variation,  But it's fair to wonder if Culpepper is a better hitter than Lee.  I didn't imagine that scenario.

I think at this point the probability of Culpepper being a complete flop is low.  He appears to have a major league future, at a minimum, as opposed to a Jose Miranda situation or Edouard Julien situation or worse.  Anything is possible, but I'd bet against him having that sort of failure.

[Trov]

13 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

And the Twins believe so much that Culpepper can stick at SS that they drafted a good-field-average-hit SS in today's first round....

MLB draft is always about the best available.  You would rather have 5 SS that are fighting for at-bats and move to other positions, or be valuable trade chips, than no SS.  Teams are always looking for viable MLB SS that can defend, worst case one does not make it, best case, both make it and one plays a different position.  Other option is one gets traded for other needs, because teams will always be willing to take on a MLB SS. 

[Possumlad]

14 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

And the Twins believe so much that Culpepper can stick at SS that they drafted a good-field-average-hit SS in today's first round....

This comment belongs in an NBA or NFL draft thread. MLB is a completely different animal - Twins drafting Houston has literally nothing to do with what they do or don't think about Culpepper.

[Jeff K]

You asked about our doubts.  I doubt he will remain in AA past the middle of August...and hopefully sooner!

[LambchoP]

I could see Culpeper and Gonzalez getting called up to AAA this year, especially if one of our OF are traded. I'm hoping Martin gets called up to replace Keirsey. Maybe we can stash Keirsey on the bench in St Paul and give the everyday at bats to Gonzalez, Mccusker, Fedko and Rodriguez ( if he can ever stay on the field)

[Guest]

On 7/14/2025 at 7:50 AM, Trov said:

MLB draft is always about the best available.  You would rather have 5 SS that are fighting for at-bats and move to other positions, or be valuable trade chips, than no SS.  Teams are always looking for viable MLB SS that can defend, worst case one does not make it, best case, both make it and one plays a different position.  Other option is one gets traded for other needs, because teams will always be willing to take on a MLB SS. 

Well put, but "best available" for what?  I watched Culpepper in Wichita a couple weeks ago.  Great plate discipline will translate as he goes up the ladder.  He handled plays in the hole with a plus arm and showed excellent range.  So, pencil Culpepper in as C4's replacement when we unload salary.  Under that scenario is Houston the "best available"?  Methinks the "best available" excludes SS if Culpepper is the plan.  Yes, I understand injuries....  But, there were some pretty electric arms still available at R1/16 on Sunday.