Carlos Correa is on the Precipice of Breaking Through at the Plate

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins' star shortstop has gone hitless to begin the season—but things should soon change for the better.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Through 18 plate appearances, Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa has been held hitless to begin his 2025 campaign. In addition to being unable to muster a hit at the plate, the star veteran has reached base only once, generating a walk in the final game of Minnesota's three-game opening series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Now, Correa hasn't been alone in his offensive ineptitude. Before manufacturing five runs in the sixth inning of Tuesday night's win against the Chicago White Sox, the Twins had been sporting the worst offense in MLB, generating a 23 wRC+ over 136 combined plate appearances. 

Every position player but Willi Castro has been underwhelming at the plate. Correa's lack of production has been particularly troublesome, considering he has been a steady force on whom the team has relied in times of extreme volatility. That said, Correa's struggles have taken place within an exceptionally small sample, and his underlying metrics suggest he is nearing a breakthrough at the plate. Over his first 18 plate appearances, Correa has generated a 76.7 MPH bat speed (96th percentile) and 43.8% squared-up rate (97th percentile). 

All that bat speed would have tied Correa with Angels outfielder Jo Adell for the fifth-highest average bat speed in the majors last season. Adell has been a below-average offensive contributor over his career, but the four players behind Adell in average bat speed last season were Yordan Alvarez, Matt Chapman, Shohei Ohtani, and Gunnar Henderson. The four ahead of him were Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Oneil Cruz, and Giancarlo Stanton. Outliers aside, bat speed is highly indicative of effectiveness at the plate, and Correa is more similar to players like Chapman and Henderson than Adell or Cruz. 

If Correa can continue to generate that kind of bat speed, hard contact will follow and balls will begin to drop, lending merit to the idea that he can produce at the rate he did the first half last season. Squared-up rate is a more convoluted advanced metric than assessing how fast a player swings their bat. The metric measures how much of the highest possible exit velocity a batter could obtain (based on a hitter's swing speed and the speed of the incoming pitch) they actually achieve; it expresses how often they make truly solid contact. Any swing that is at least 80% efficient in this regard is considered a squared-up swing by Statcast measurements. Correa has squared up 43.8% of the balls he has put in play.

If he finished last season at that rate, he would have finished with the second-best squared-up rate, behind only Luis Arráez. Arráez, of course, has the league's slowest swing, preferring extreme control of the bat (and the resulting ability to make more contact than anyone else) to power. It's very rare to have both excellent bat speed and a high rate of squaring up the ball. That Correa is doing so implies that his slump will be very short-lived. He's a standout among American League hitters with at least 10 swings this season, when it comes to the combination of bat speed and the capacity to square it up.

Now, it would be malpractice to make any definitive assessments over 18 plate appearances. However, considering the 11-year veteran has always hit the ball hard while displaying a keen eye at the plate, there is reason to suspect he will quickly begin producing at the rate that led to him earning his first All-Star nod as a Twin last season. Correa's inability to produce at the plate early this season has played a significant role in the club's offensive struggles. That said, his underlying metrics suggest he is on the verge of breaking through—and yet again becoming a near-elite offensive contributor at the top of Minnesota's lineup.

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[LambchoP]

Correa has been very disappointing at the plate. Sure, he's hot some balls hard but literally everything is on the ground right to the SS or 2nd baseman. I think he might lead the league in double plays if he can't get the ball in the air. He's got to figure this out, we can't have a guy hitting like this getting a 37 million dollar salary on a penny pinching team. If I remember right, he's usually kind of a slow starter, just never to this extent. Maybe he should try the new torpedo bat trend! Hopefully he gets a few hits back at home if not before, it's not like we can send him to AAA like we did with Wallner last year :(

[gman]

Maybe if he could force himself to get more at bats in the spring he might get some hits in the first game of the year. And second and third etc.

[Karbo]

I'm not worried about Correa. This slump will end as will Bucks.

[Patzky]

In Missouri they said show me.

[Vanimal46]

38 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'm not worried about Correa. This slump will end as will Bucks.

Yeah we probably don’t need a deep dive on this topic. He’ll be just fine as long as he stays healthy. 

[Twins GFP]

Considering things really can't get worse for him, saying things will improve is a little obvious, eh?

[Mauer4HOF]

Great research and insights Cody!  I agree that Correa with his squared up rate and frequency of exit velocity over 100 are good signs.
 

Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez and many other top hitters have “traditional” stats very low through a handful of games this year too.   Carlos will be fine if he stays healthy.  Thanks for the perspective!
 

 

[westvanson]

lol... was this satire? Correa is still batting .164.