Multiple Twins Prospects Could Earn the Organization an Extra Draft Pick in 2025

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have three consensus top-100 prospects who finished at Double A or higher last season. Here’s how that trio of potential stars can earn the team an extra draft pick over the next few seasons.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey (Wichita Wind Surge), William Parmeter

Major-league teams have manipulated service time to maintain control over their top prospects for years, often delaying their debuts to gain an extra year before free agency. However, the latest collective bargaining agreement (CBA) introduced the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) to encourage teams to promote their best young talent on Opening Day. With multiple top prospects nearing the majors, the Minnesota Twins are positioned to take advantage of this new system—if things break a certain way during spring training.

According to MLB.com, “An MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting, prior to qualifying for arbitration.”

So, what teams have benefited from this change? Since its inception, the PPI has seen multiple teams gain an extra draft pick and the bonus pool allotments associated therewith. The Mariners, Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Royals have all benefited from this system. Julio Rodríguez, Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, and Bobby Witt Jr. all turned strong seasons into extra picks for their respective teams. It will be interesting to see if those teams can use their PPI picks and turn them into top prospects in future years. 

For the 2025 season, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN have identified three Twins prospects as PPI-eligible: outfielder Walker Jenkins, outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez, and infielder Luke Keaschall. The Twins have other prospects on these top 100 lists, but a player must appear in two of the three major rankings. Each of the abovementioned trio finished 2024 at Double-A or higher, meaning they could soon be in line for their major-league debuts.

Rodriguez is the closest to the big leagues in the group. He finished last season at Triple-A St. Paul and is on the verge of forcing his way onto the Opening Day roster. Last season, he hit .280/.459/.567, with 25 extra-base hits in 47 games. If injuries or an impressive spring create an opportunity, Rodriguez could provide an immediate impact at the MLB level. His power, plate discipline, and strong defensive skills in center field make him a compelling candidate to break camp with the Twins.

Jenkins, one of the top prospects in baseball, might offer the Twins the best long-term opportunity for a PPI draft pick. While he is still developing in the minors, a strong 2025 campaign at Double-A and Triple-A could put him in a position to make the Opening Day roster in 2026. In 2024, he hit .282/.394/.439, with more walks (56) than strikeouts (47). His elite offensive profile, advanced approach, and defensive versatility make him a potential franchise cornerstone. He’s already considered one of baseball’s best prospects but still has room to improve in 2025. 

Keaschall is a bit of a wild card, after being the organization’s breakout prospect last season before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. The team expects him to be ready for spring training, but he won’t be on the Opening Day roster. In 102 games last season, he hit .303/.420/.483, with 21 doubles and 15 home runs. His bat-to-ball skills and defensive flexibility could make him valuable in future seasons. While he is one of the team’s top prospects, he seems unlikely to be in the AL Rookie of the Year or MVP race in the coming years. 

Ultimately, the Twins will prioritize their prospects’ development and the team’s needs over draft incentives. However, the PPI gives them another reason to consider promoting their young stars sooner, rather than later. If Rodriguez or Jenkins makes an immediate impact, the Twins could find themselves with an extra draft pick and more spending power in that market, valuable assets in building sustained success.

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Should Rodriguez break camp with the Twins in 2025? Will Jenkins be a PPI candidate in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments and join the discussion.

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[bean5302]

I think it's important to consider how good you need to be to win RoY, and let's be honest, if you're factoring into the league MVP/Cy Young, you're going to be winning RoY.
WAR - AL, NL
2024 - 3.1, 5.9
2023 - 6.2, 5.4
2022 - 6.2, 5.2
2021 - 3.9, 4.1
2019 - 3.7, 5.5

Tons and tons of hype around Walker Jenkins. I'm just not sold until I see the power or get the scouting reports back on excellent CF play. I do think Jenkins has the potential to win in a down year, but he's going to have to play to his ceiling to do it. That said, I'd be surprised for him to get more than a cup of coffee at the MLB level this year. He's got a lot of missed time an opportunity to make up for in the minors this year. I'll be watching him closely in Spring Training this year.

Emma also missed a ton of time and has been constantly hurt. I think he's got the highest likelihood to make the team opening day due to the fact this is his 2nd option year. If he's able to duplicate the Edouard Julien effort in 2023, Emma could be a RoY candidate. He's going to do a lot better than his 50% K rate last year in ST.

I'd be surprised at Keaschall playing much at the MLB level this year. Not sure what the Twins' philosophy will be on his development, but I think they'll likely keep him in the outfield or 2nd base for the start of the season to protect his UCL. 

[tony&rodney]

First things first, the Twins need to believe in a player enough to put them in the lineup and let them play. San Diego was trying to win the NL West but stuck with Jackson Merrill through some tough struggles. Merrill wound up have a helluva year. The Brewers stuck with Jackson Chourio when he was lost and were rewarded with his play which was crucial in helping win the NL Central for Milwaukee.

There should be an evaluation and decision made by mid March on Emmanuel. Keaschall will need some time at AAA and Jenkins will also need more experiences in the minor leagues ..... unless something incredible happens in ST.

[Fatbat]

I expect to see the best 2 rookie classes in’25 & ‘26. Several guys with a full tool box from hitting to defense and of course pitchers that are going to make picking up 34 yo burn outs an obsolete roster construction plan. If the new ownership is patient enough, our championship window will be open into the 2030s…

[chpettit19]

Emma is their only realistic shot at it this year. I'd love to see him get an opening day job in LF and let him work through his struggles (like Merrill and Chourio as @tony&rodney pointed out). He's the kind of player that can win this kind of award if things click for him.

The other 2 aren't going to get enough of a chance. And if they win it they won't be getting any extra picks from them as they won't be up in time.

Dream scenario is Emma wins it this year. Jenkins debuts in September and then wins it in 2026. We can dream, can't we?

[jorgenswest]

The four players who earned the extra picked all were elite prospects. Two of them peaked at #1 and the other two at #2.  Jenkins is near that territory. The other two are not.

I think Rodriguez can help this team this year. He should be in strong consideration for a starting outfield job. I think he can combine good defense with a wRC+ over 100 as a result of walks and power combined with a mediocre batting average. That won’t win a rookie of the year crown but will help the Twins win games.

Would there be incentive for the Twins not to promote him at all hoping that another year of development will help earn the extra pick in 2026? I wouldn’t think so but the incentive can work both ways.

[DocBauer]

I could see Keaschall having a 2025 impact similar to what Julien did in 2023, but even if his elbow is 100%, he hasn't played above AA yet. So I'm betting he arrives too late to win any award, no matter how good of a season he has.

Rodriguez is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. His talent is undeniable, and tantalizing! He's TOO patient at times and K's too much. But he also has AMAZING OB% ability and discipline, still hits, has really good power, can run, and has real defensive ability. My goodness, he had a 1.100 OPS at AA despite fighting injury time! And he's not quite 22yo yet! But even if he's 100% healthy and ready to go, is he ready to harness his patience and aggressiveness at the ML level to find a successful balance?

@chpettit19has been a champion to "let it fly" in regard to Rodriguez, amongst others. And believe me, I see the opportunity and value in letting him do so, and let Larnach DH, and spend some time in both OF corners. He'd look good at times, and lost other times. But he just might be as special as we all hope and figure it out by the second half, spending the first half in the bottom portion of the lineup. Defensively, even as a rookie, he'd probably add value over Larnach.

But what would/will the Twins think/do? This FO hasn't been conservative in promoting players, generally, throughout the system. But they haven't been prone to moving anyone from AA to the majors so far. And 7 games at AAA isn't really much more than a handshake, sandwich, and cup of coffee.

But when you're looking for talent and fan interest on a limited budget, and you have a great talent, do they make the move opening day? Do they feel he's ready "enough" to make the move then, or sometime in April? 

Honestly, in hindsight, Lewis might have been in a similar situation a couple years ago. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

But in regard to the OP, the best opportunity to win a bonus draft pick would be Jenkins in 2026. The power is still coming, but the talent is undeniable. Whether he debuts at the end of 2025 or not, there's a good chance he's ready to be handed a full time job to begin 2026.

 

 

[twinstalker]

33 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I could see Keaschall having a 2025 impact similar to what Julien did in 2023, but even if his elbow is 100%, he hasn't played above AA yet. So I'm betting he arrives too late to win any award, no matter how good of a season he has.

I don't disagree with anything you say here, but it's difficult for me to let a Keaschall/Julien comparison pass without comment.  Your comment works because Julien had a helluva year in 2023.  I personally kept wondering why MLB pitchers hadn't figured out how to pitch him.  By the end of the season they had it solved.

Keaschall won't go through what Julien went through.  I'm not saying his first ABs will match Julien's, but his second season will be fantastic by comparison.  Luke Keaschall hits the ball hard and doesn't strike out.  He covers the plate.

As for the gist of this article, I'm smh.  I mean, he's talking a ROY, and his focus is getting a draft pick.  You know what?  Jenkins could be that player in 2026, and a draft pick would be a nice perk, but you wouldn't be focusing an article on a pick.  You'd be focusing on his tremendous season.

But what's better?  Six years of Jenkins and a possible supplemental pick or seven years of Jenkins?  A player signs with Boras with the understanding that he'll go to free agency rather than sign an extension, so you have even less years if you're realistic and know you'll need to trade him.  If Jenkins can't be denied this season, you bring him up this year during the summer.  If you can wait until next year, you wait until May.  Sorry, Scott and Walker, this is what your stance brings about.  I don't know why any Boras client would start his career prior to May.

[FlyingFinn]

It should have been Brooks Lee this year. The Twins got desperate and had to bring him up, even with his bad back. 

I'm on board with giving Emma Rodriguez a shot right out of the gate.